Klitschko vs Arreola

[H2O Man]

Saturday, September 26 - Los Angeles, California (HBO) - heavyweights: Vitali Klitschko (37-2, 36 KOs) vs. Chris Arreola (27-0, 24 KOs)

In the past few years, boxing fans have been treated to a number of weight classes being truly competitive. Due to a number of factors, many of the top fighters in most divisions have been willing to face top opposition. As a result, the sport of boxing is having a resurgence of great fights. Unfortunately, the heavyweight division has been lacking.

This weekend, there is a fight that could change that. Tough Chris Arreola is challenging Vitali Klitschko for his WBC title. While his brother Wladimir holds the real heavyweight title (and Nicolay Valuev has another of the paper titles), Vitali is considered by many to be the better of the Klitschko brothers in several key areas. He is bigger, stronger, has a better chin, and has a superior overall record.

Going into the fight, Vitali will be favored over his younger challenger, and a strong case can be made that he will win. A number of my friends have said that even if he does win, at least it should be an exciting fight – something that has been sorely lacking in the division for years. If it is a good fight, then the sport benefits. However, if it’s a good fight and Arreola pulls off an upset, the results will be much better for American boxing fans.

While both Klitschko brothers are large, athletic, and dominant fighters, they do not generate excitement, either inside or outside of the ring. Chris Arreola, on the other hand, gets people’s attention wherever he is. Not only are his fights fun to watch, but Chris combines a quick wit with equal parts of charm and snarl in his interviews with the media. But that type of charisma is nothing that Klitschko can learn, nor is it going to make a difference inside the ring this weekend.

Vitali presents an imposing challenge for Arreola. He is bigger, more experienced, very strong, intelligent, and patient. He intimidates most opponents, and he has the ability to exploit any weakness or mistake made by the man in front of him. There is no better example than his recent win over Samuel Peter: Sam was not in good shape, entered the ring scared, and stood right in front of Vitali. The result was that Sam quit after eight rounds, though the case could easily be made that he had given up hope in the gym weeks before.

In order to win, Chris has to enter the ring both mentally and physically prepared for the toughest fight of his career. That means recognizing exactly how good Klitschko really is. And the truth is that yes, he is physically gifted, talented, and efficient in the ring. But he is not a great fighter. In fact, he has only fought two A-grade opponents, and by no coincidence, he was TKOed in both of those fights. Vitali has also beat a number of B- and C-grade fighters, but he hasn’t beaten anyone that Arreola wouldn’t be favored to knock out.

Klitschko is also getting old. He did not look particularly inspirational in his last fight, when he knocked out Juan Carlos Gomez. He has had some difficulties hitting moving targets. Thus, unlike a stationary Sam Peter, Chris Arreola needs to be a moving target. He needs to bob and weave. Peter bobbed, but has never mastered the skill of weaving. The weaving allows a fighter the ability to move side-to-side, in the manner that a young Joe Frazier did so well. It’s that stepping to the side that presents the angles that Chris will need to hit and not get hit. It will allow him to deliver his punches, but not allow Vitali to get measure him with his jab, and get set to land his harder punches.

A fighter has to be in very good condition to bob and weave for six or eight rounds. That does not mean that they must be sculpted, with a six-pack. Smokin’ Joe was not built like Ken Norton. Critics used to say that he carried too much weight in his thighs and back side, when he was a contender. But he was always prepared to go to war in that ring, for however many rounds an opponent could last.

Some good boxing writers have pointed out that not only does Vitali have a good chin, but Chris is not a one-punch KO artist. This is, of course, absolutely true. However, Chris can hurt anyone he hits, and if he hits any heavyweight today for long, they will not last. One of the laws of boxing is that if a fighter quits once in his career, he will be prone to quitting again, when hurt and pressured. In April of 2000, Vitali Klitschko quit after nine rounds against Chris Byrd, who he out-weighed by 35 pounds.

If Chris Arreola enters the ring in the best shape – mentally and physically – that he’s ever been in, he is going to leave the ring with the WBC heavyweight title. It will be the first time that a Mexican-American has captured that crown. It will not only be the best thing to happen in that division in many years, it will be great for the sport.

[Forkboy]

1. My prediction is that Arreola goes tits up.

Sorry, there was no way I could help myself, wrong spelling of the word or not.

:hide:

[H2O Man]

4. If Arreola is not

in extremely good condition, he will not be able to move out of Klitschko's way. And if he stands right in front of Klitschko, he will indeed find himself doing one of two things: staring up at the lights, or down at the canvas.

Objectively speaking, Klitschko is definitely the favorite. But, being a caring person, I only want what is best for Arreola and the sport of boxing.

[JonLP24]

2. Good analysis

I'm starting to learn about more boxers and it think it will be a good fight. I'm trying to info for this Friday and can't really find anything. Just this.

Sept. 25
10 ET
Episode 4
Super middleweights http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/boxing/news/story?id=2529710

I was wondering if you knew FNF would air and what fighters will be on?

[H2O Man]

5. Last night,

I had a couple of junior and senior high school sporting events to attend, so I wasn't able to watch the fights. But, a good source for the fight schedule can always be found on espn.com/boxing .

There are very few reasons that I'll ever miss boxing. But when my daughters compete in school sports, it tops boxing for me. And during the school year, that means soccer, basketball, track, and likely one or two more things this year. It's funny: one of my brothers, who lives on the west coast, enjoys attending a variety of professional sporting events. I tell him that I have more fun at my daughters' competitions (as I used to at my sons'), for a heck of a lot cheaper, plus I get better seats.

On paper, Klitschko wins tonight, probably around the 5th round. But, as always, the fight is in the ring, and I'm really hoping for an upset. The only time a Mexican or Mexican-American came close to winning the heavyweight title was back in June of 1968, when Joe Frazier defended his "paper" title against tough Manuel Ramos in New York. (Joe held the NYS "heavyweight title," which was also recognized by Il, MA, ME, and PA; Jimmy Ellis had won the WBC tournament two months earlier; and Ali was still recognized by The Ring.When Frazier fought Ellis in Feb. '70, Ali gave up the crown, and Joe won the real title.)

Frazier did well in the first round, but the tall, lanky Mexican warrior began to find his range at the end of the round. Early in the second round, Ramos his Frazier with a vicious left hook, that hurt him. After the fight, referee Arthur Mercante said that if Ramos had followed it up, he would have stopped the fight. But Joe recovered quickly, and decked Ramos twice and ended the fight that same round. But, for a second, it looked like Ramos would pull off an upset.

I mention this, because it raises an interesting point about a bobbing and weaving offense. If a guy gets hit hard, there is going to be a window of opportunity, when he stops the upper body movement. And, as great as Joe was, there was a young contender, George Foreman, who was being trained by Dick Sadler (Sandy's cousin) and Archie Moore. Archie had decked Marciano in Rocky's last fight, under similar circumstances; he saw Walcott deck Rocky by catching him moving in.

Archie understood the concept of "window of opportunity" as well as any boxer or manager. He told Foreman, when he first fought Joe, that at that point where Joe stopped his upper body movement, to hit him like a farmer hits a cow with a hammer when preparing to butcher it. (I know, it sounds crude!) And, of course, Big George did exactly that. Guys like Howard Cosell and my brother had favored George to win the upset, based on that single left hook by Ramos. They knew what Moore knew.

Now, Klitschko is no George Foreman, but Arreola isn't at Frazier's level, either. Maybe in the future. But Klitschko will be looking to create the window of opportunity tonight. And, If Arreola isn't in outstanding condition, it becomes impossible to bob and weave after two or at most three rounds. Add to that the fact that you have to be in great shape to recover from a punch.

It should be a heck of a fight.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

3. I wish Arreola well

I think Vitali isn't quite as robotic as his brother Wlad. That technique that Manny Steward developed to protect Wlad's chin can be very boring after awhile: jab, jab, jab, jab, jab, right hand - take two steps back and reset - jab, jab, jab, jab, jab, right hand. Vitali while not totally exciting I think is a bit more aggressive and can move forward to push the action compared to his brother, who just seems to sit back and wait for the opponent to come to him. I think he's a bit more wide open and creative. At the same time, he leaves himself a bit more open when he mixes it up and it could be to Arreola's advantage.

Arreola has plenty of charisma (if he can remember not to use foul language on TV) and would be good for boxing if he could become a major force. We need something, anything to re-energize the heavyweight division. To me, Arreola is taking Vitali on a bit too early. I think he needs more seasoning as he hasn't really faced top level competition. He looked good against a very lethargic and over-the-hill McCline and he was nearly knocked out by journeyman Travis Walker. Arreola has fairly quick hands for a big man and can move a bit. His defense however to me looks a little lacking and he gets hit, especially when he gets carried away with trying to land punches. That surprises me for a guy who supposedly had a solid amateur career. And I hope he's removed some of that gut from around his waist. To me that's kind of shameful for a professional to have. He shouldn't be weighing in between 255 and 260 lbs. for his fights. I think his best hope against Vitali is to really come out banging and go for the fences to take him out early. I don't know if he can go into the later rounds unless he's shed some of that extra weight he carries around the ring. I hope that's the case and he looks in better shape.

[H2O Man]

6. I agree

with you on each and every point.

If Chris is in great shape, he has a chance, though Klitschko is still favored. But if Chris is in less than great shape, he has no chance.

His weight was, in my opinion, too high in the last two weeks of training. But, I didn't see him working out. Some guys who look soft can be in very good shape. But, in the past, Chris has had difficulty in delivering and avoiding punches when he comes into the ring heavy. Plus, he has a belief that he can take anyone's punch, which is a classic error in thinking.

Enjoy the fight. It could be the best heavyweight fight in a long, long time. May the better man win.

[bulldogge]

7. I find

it interesting you think his younger holds the real belt, I can only assume you mean "The Ring" title? The WBC is the linear title is it not?

I also have to chime in on the Byrd fight. One, I think he has spent his career trying to erase that fight, I think more than anyone he regrets that night. I thought he showed tremendous heart against Lewis with his eyelid nearly detached and though that fight was many years ago the slow-mo revealed he has deceptively quick hands. They stop fights for much less, such as a cut. A torn rotator cuff not only puts one fighter at a significant disadvantage but could potentially put them in serious jeopardy and even end an athletes career. That is not an injury a ring side doctor is necessarily going to stop a fight for because it is not visible, so maybe he made a logical decision based on his own instinct and has had to live with the stigma since.

With that said he is 38 and injury prone, especially a bad back. Arreola is indeed in shape and ready to fight. Showing up in shape to a big fight doesn't promise commitment though, the list is long in regards to fighters who win in great shape and make a mockery of the title in their next defense. If he is able to trim to 251 it tells me he is not thick like a Frazier but over confident and lazy like buster Douglas or Rahman. I think it would be better for a dedicated boring champ than the rotating door that would follow an Arreola win and further discredit the division.

Vitali is on the list with some great fighters winning the title 3 times, I think he is highly a underrated boxer and has been a reasonably stable force in an otherwise erratic division. The thing that is funny about heavyweights is that they rarely get recognized while they have the belt, they fight bums, the division is weak etc etc they did it to Holmes, they did it to Lewis....

[H2O Man]

8. Right.

I mean the real heavyweight champion, not one of the guys who holds a paper title. I think that most people can distinguish between, for example, Group A (Jack Dempsey, Joe Louis, and Muhammad Ali) and Group B (Ernie Terrell, Greg Page, and Nicole Valuev). Group A all held the heavyweight championship of the world. Group B did/have not, though they each have held paper titles.

In an effort to extract money from fighters and fans alike, numerous alphabet commissions have created their own paper titles. These are nice, in the same sense that a professional wrestling title is nice. But they are not world titles.

You make a good point about how the fellows who hold them tend to lose them, often in their next fight. That's because they aren't quite good enough to win the real title. The result is that there are people who can honestly claim to have won many, many world championships. Alas, Henry Armstrong, they are not.

I also agree that while Lennox Lewis was a relatively boring champion, he was very good. His place in history, of course, is damaged by the two upset loses of the title (both of which I accurately predicted). But it was good to have a real champion, and an active one. As Teddy Atlas has noted, Lewis is missed, though neither Klitschko brother will be.

I only know of one person who didn't give Larry Holmes his due, while he was champion. The guy fought against Ken Norton, Ernie Shavers, and an undefeated Gerry Cooney. Having followed Ali's era, it was irritating to Larry that writers compared him to Muhammad: while Larry remains convinced that he was greater, very, very few others would make that case.

Vitali should win tonight. But, if he doesn't, it could set up a challenge for the real title for Arreola. It's unlikely that Wladimir would fight him though, if Chris does beat Vitali.