Countdown to the Cup: Arc Weather Looks Good

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The chances of Sea The Stars being withdrawn from Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-I) due to soft ground appear slim to none, as the weather forecast calls for little or no rain through next Tuesday. The ground at Longchamp at the present is considered on the firm side of good, so it would require a good amount of rain to soften the course significantly.

That, of course, means Sea The Stars’ participation in the Breeders’ Cup is greatly diminished, although trainer John Oxx has not completely shut that door. We’ll just have to see how the colt comes out of the race and whether Oxx wishes to run him into November after a long year that goes all the way back to his Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-I) victory in early May.

With Queen Elizabeth II (Eng-I) winner Rip Van Winkle and possibly Mastercraftsman, who is scheduled to run next in the group III Diamond Stakes on the all-weather track at Dundalk Friday night, both being pointed to the BC Classic (gr. I), trainer Aidan O’Brien will attempt to secure a place in the BC Turf (gr. IT) for Irish Derby (Ire-I) winner Fame and Glory with a good performance in the Arc. Runner-up to Sea The Stars in the group I English Derby and Irish Champion Stakes, he currently is second choice for the Arc with the British bookmakers, just ahead of Conduit and Cavalryman.

In other Arc news, it was announced that Dar Re Mi, who was disqualified from first in the Prix Vermeille (Fr-I) after upsetting heavily favored Stacelita, will attempt to avenge that controversial defeat by returning to France for the Arc, as long as trainer John Gosden gives the OK. The daughter of Singspiel, owned by Andrew Lloyd-Webber, has won the group I Yorkshire Oaks and Pretty Polly Stakes this year.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52720/countdown-to-the-cup-arc-weather-looks-good


Last year's Breeders' Cup Mile winner
Goldikova will try for her fourth consecutive
victory in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp.
Photo: Rick Samuels

[Condem]

1. All right, two gun. I'm going to try.

But I'm not going to root for a horse owned by fucking Andrew Lloyd-Webber. That's out.

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2. Bwahahahaha!!!!

Great! I'm leaning toward a Quality Road/Macho Again exacta. Today. Could change by post time.

[Condem]

3. Fame and Glory, two gun.

A hunch.

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4. Countdown to the Cup: Beyond the Sea...a Bird

If Sea the Stars does not make the trip to California, which seems more likely than not, and joins Rachel Alexandra on the absentee list, it will create a void never before seen in the Breeders’ Cup.

Assuming Sea the Stars does not run, it is safe to say that no two greater horses have ever eluded the World Championship event in a single year. That is a sad comment considering the sport’s desperate need to showcase its superstars. In this case, we’ve gone beyond superstars, as many feel Sea the Stars in Europe and Rachel Alexandra in the U.S. are the greatest male and female to grace the Turf in some 30 years.

What Sea the Stars has accomplished this year is extraordinary. Not even legendary horses such as Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard, Dancing Brave, and Shergar were able to put together a series of six consecutive group I victories that included the Two Thousand Guineas, English Derby, and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Listening to the Longchamp crowd, half of which probably were made up of English and Irish racing fans, salute Sea the Stars with a resounding ovation, it was as if the deafening cheers for Rachel Alexandra at Saratoga and Monmouth had drifted across the Atlantic.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52837/countdown-to-the-cup-beyond-the-seaa-bird

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5. Goldikova to Defend Her BC Mile Title

Trainer Freddie Head confirmed on Oct. 7 that Goldikova will return to Santa Anita to defend her crown in the Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. IT) Nov. 7.

The six-time group I-winning filly was an eye-opening winner in California last year, but her participation for this year's event came under question when she was overhauled late on in the Oct. 3 Prix de la Foret (Fr-I) at longchamp, finishing third.

However, Head said: “She is fine and has come out of the race well. We have checked her over and nothing is wrong; she is fine. She is well and I think that she will go to America.”

The trainer said of her Longchamp run: “It was a bad race as she was drawn out wide and had to use a lot of energy to get to the front. She was pushed wide at one point and (Olivier) Peslier had to choose whether to go on or pull her back. He decided to go on and that may have been the wrong decision.”

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52859/goldikova-to-defend-her-bc-mile-title

I'm thinking that after the Euros spanked NA ass last year on the Pro Ride surface we should see a bunch of good horses from overseas at the BC. I'm looking at betting horses that had their BC prep races on grass or artificial surfaces. That angle worked well last year.

Is Sea The Stars gonna make the trip? After listening to Oxx today I doubt it. He was saying his superhorse is already starting to get his winter coat. Too bad. I'd love to see him over here. - two gun sid

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11. My BC prediction for the Mile....

Goldikova is a lock to defend her title. Throw her last race out.

I picked Rock Of Gibraltar in the 2002 Mile also.

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6. Zenyatta After 13th Straight in Lady's Secret

Undefeated Zenyatta attempts to equal Personal Ensign by winning her 13th consecutive race when she goes to the post in Oak Tree's $300,000 Lady's Secret Stakes (gr. I) as the heavy favorite Oct. 10 at Santa Anita.

"That's something we never imagined when she started racing," trainer John Shirreffs said of Zenyatta possibly matching the legendary filly. "And then as she has continued to win, it became something that was maybe possible. And now we're on the brink of it. So it's very exciting."

The crowd favorite will meet many of the same rivals in the 1 1/16-mile Pro-Ride event that she has defeated in her three earlier victories this year, with one significant addition among the eight entrants. That is Godolphin's Cocoa Beach, who ran second to Zenyatta in last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I) and is shipping west to get accustomed for a second try at the World Championships.

The Lady's Secret is the last of four of Breeders' Cup Challenge races on the Santa Anita program, with the earner automatically qualifying for the $2 million Ladies' Classic Nov. 6 over the same track. Zenyatta, though, might end up taking on males a day later in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) regardless of whether she wins the Lady's Secret.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52875/zenyatta-after-13th-straight-in-ladys-secret

Do not miss this race. Zenyatta has been out of the limelight since Rachel emerged as a superstar, but make no mistake, Zenyatta is as good a racemare as any we've seen in a long time. And you just might see her make history. Colin, Personal Ensign and Zenyatta. Undefeated horses with at least 10 or more starts. - two gun sid

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9. Video of Zenyatta's history making race. Enjoy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjKKqB6wowc

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7. Countdown to the Cup: Goodwood Parade

You can’t say there isn’t enough to choose from when handicapping Saturday’s $350,000 Goodwood Stakes (gr. I), with a smorgasbord of stakes horses all trying to earn their place in the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I).

A victory by seven or eight of the 10 starters would not come as a surprise, and there should not be a clear-cut favorite. It looks as if Mine That Bird and Colonel John will command a good of interest at the windows, with Richard’s Kid taking action off his Pacific Classic (gr. I) win at odds of 24-1.

But there is a potential wise guy horse in the field, who should be sitting on a huge race, and that is the 6-year-old Parading. It is difficult to predict just how much action this Shug McGaughey-trained son of Pulpit will take following his fourth-place finish in the Pacific Classic, in which he was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths. But the feeling here is that he will get bet, and that he is going to be tough to beat.

In his last two trips west, he was a well-beaten fifth in the Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I) before his improved performance in the Pacific Classic. But those races were both at 1 1/4 miles, and Parading was coming off two-month layoffs each time. Parading went into the Pacific Classic off just three half-mile breezes over the Oklahoma training track at Saratoga and ran as if he were a bit short, making a strong move to get within a head of Einstein at the eighth pole. He remained in California, breezing a half mile, followed by five-furlong drills in 1:01 2/5 and 1:00 4/5, both handily.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52897/countdown-to-the-cup-goodwood-parade

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8. Countdown to the Cup: Early Angles

As we all know there is always an angle or two we can latch on to in the Breeders’ Cup. The trick is finding them among the morass of stakes horses that line up for the 14 races. There probably are more chances of landing a longshot on a synthetic surface, because, in all honesty, does anyone really know how to handicap these races?

How many people were really expecting Ventura to inhale Indian Blessing and the other top female sprinters with such an explosive move? How do you anticipate the boat race that was the Marathon and the total lack of form at the finish? How do you expect the 6-5 Well Armed to slog around the track without ever threatening in the slightest? For all those who took a shot with the top-class, Eastern dirt horse Munnings in the Juvenile, will you do that again this year? Did you really expect to see the top Eastern sprinter Fabulous Strike just go through the motions in the Sprint? And finally, how many people honestly expected to see Europeans finish one-two in the Classic?

It’s become pretty evident that handicapping a Pro-Ride Breeders’ Cup is all about grass horses, synthetic specialists, and European invaders, with all three pretty much intertwined. That doesn’t necessarily mean that dirt horses are left out in the cold…or heat in this case. It just means they are unknown quantities and you’re basically guessing when you bet on them.

So, taking all that into consideration, here are some horses, most of whom ran last weekend, who could be considered intriguing betting angles.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52986/countdown-to-the-cup-early-angles

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10. Countdown to the Cup: Can it Happen Twice?

On April 17, 2008, American racing fans were immersed in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), and no one was even giving the Breeders’ Cup a second thought. But across the Atlantic, there was a scene being played out that would have a far greater effect on the Breeders’ Cup than anyone could have imagined.

The Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-I) was only 16 days away and the English Derby (Eng-I) about a month and a half away. At Newmarket, 10 3-year-olds lined up for the one-mile Craven Stakes (Eng-II).

In the final furlong, the two favorites battled it out, locked together in a furious duel. At the wire, it was Juddmonte Farms’ 2-1 second choice, Twice Over, trained by Henry Cecil, the winner by a nose. Finishing a game second was the 6-5 favorite, Raven’s Pass, trained by John Gosden.

Some six months after the Craven Stakes, Raven's Pass came to America and won the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. It is now a year later, and it looks as if Twice Over, following his victory in the Oct. 17 Champion Stakes (Eng-I), could very well be on his way to California to try to emulate the horse he nosed out in the Craven.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/53039/countdown-to-the-cup-can-it-happen-twice