Auburn or Oklahoma?

[lazarus]

Which one should be #2?

I say Auburn, because the SEC is a much tougher conference, and they're averaging 8 more points on margin of victory.

[Hog lover]

1. I'd have to agree

even though I don't like Auburn or Tuberville.

My bet is that Auburn will be on NCAA probation within a year.

Roll Tide!

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Auburn will definitely close the gap or move ahead in this week's polls

Excellent question. It figures to be the BCS debate this year.

The lingering memory is OU getting beat by the SEC's finest last year. But the Sooners have a far superior pedigree over the past few years, and I hate vaulting a team over another based on overreaction to a handful of games.

As a USC alum who will attend the Orange Bowl, I guess I'm rooting for 'SC-OU because it's a slightly more glamourous matchup, and I think the Oklahoma defense is more vulnerable than Auburn's.

Besides, for 17 years I lived and died with the Sooner wishbone, including when I was a student at USC. I never had any connection to Auburn.

[OKNancy]

3. Oklahoma - problem with your statement

Oklahoma has a tougher schedule according to every ranking I've ever seen.

Oklahoma is Number one on the computer rankings, only in the human poll is OK #2.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/abcsports/BCSStandings

Strength of schedule before this weekend was:

OU - 4th
USC - 10th
Auburn - 59th


Auburn has beaten three teams that were ranked in the top 10 - Georgia, Tennessee and L.S.U. - but the Tigers' strength of schedule is 59th; Oklahoma's is fourth, and Southern California's is 10th. The perception of a soft schedule could hurt Auburn's standing in the polls.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/14/sports/ncaafootball/14auburn.html

-------------------------------------

Now, that might change this week, but all of the Big 12 high ranking teams won as well ( Texas, Texas A&M and Okla State - in fact Texas will probably move to number 5 in the polls - way ahead of Georgia - Auburn's strongest competition)

The problem Oklahoma has this year is first, USC is popular because of it's location in media markets - and they are pretty good, I will admit. And also Oklahoma is being punished for last year and the defeat in the big 12 championship game.

Anyway, the human polls will probably decide what happens this week, but according to the computers, OU is #1.

[kcr]

5. How the heck

does Auburn beat three top tne teams, Oklahoma beat one, and OK have so much higher a strenght of schedule?

[RoyGBiv]

6. Whole Schedule

Look at the whole schedule.

Auburn had some real cheese cakes on its schedule. Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, Citadel, Kentucky. OU only had one that was of that poor a caliber up to this point, and it is debatable whether any were the dogs that L-M or the Citadel were. Baylor will drop OU's SoS a bit next week, though. Also, two of Auburn's top-ten victories came against teams that were considered national championship contenders in the pre-season, and thus ranked highly to begin with, but later turned out to be not as good as everyone thought they would be.

OU has played and beaten four current top-25 teams, two of which (O-State and A&M) have been under-ranked all season and would be rated much, much higher if they'd managed to pull off the upset of OU. And, they nearly did. Also remember that Oregon nearly beat -- should have beaten -- California.

And then there's Texas. Texas would be in OU's spot at least if not for that game, and such a thing counts for a lot in a strength-of-schedule ranking. The analogous team on Auburn's side is Georgia, but in my personal view, Georgia was over-rated.

[RoyGBiv]

4. False Dichotomy

It should be, imnsho, Auburn and Oklahoma with USC as #3.

USC does not deserve the ranking they have because of what they've done. (I put almost no stock in margin of victory. Too many factors in that to make it a valid measure of quality.) They have that ranking because of what they did last year and because they haven't royally screwed up this year.

Auburn's schedule has not been as tough as OU's. However, both have proven themselves in tough contests. They deserve #1 and #2 ranking -- I don't care about the order.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I guess undefeated is a definition of not royally screwing up

USC is ranked first because of raw talent. If NFL scouts were to draft players off the three teams we are mentioning, zero question USC players would go earlier and more often. The freshman class is a nucleus of an NFL team in itself.

By far the most overrated aspect of rating a team is strength of schedule. Are you going to underrate the Patriots if suddenly they are in the NCAAs and playing an Ivy League schedule? Ignore obvious talent and margin of victory? Exclude them from the championship game? Gimme a break.

Within the major conferences, strength of schedule is very similar. Just check out Jeff Sagarin's conference ratings in USA Today. You are talking about a couple of points here and there. Teams like Utah and Boise St are correctly devalued not simply based on schedule, but due to subjective and historical understanding they have less overall talent and are probably a notch below the major conference superpowers.

Remember the championship week games last year? USC was bumped out of the Sugar Bowl, despite consensus #1 ranking after Oklahoma lost to Kansas St, because two of its opponents lost obscure games that day -- Notre Dame to Syracuse and Hawaii to Boise St. If EITHER result had been different, USC would have been in the Sugar Bowl. Two years earlier, a seemingly meaningless late season Southern Miss result put Nebraska, and not Colorado, in the Rose Bowl championship game against Miami.

The BCS committee correctly never intended to use strength of schedule at all. The top two poll teams were going to be isolated to meet every year. It was changed only when writers and broadcasters balked at being a vital part of the selection process, and not mere reporters of the news.

[RoyGBiv]

8. Define "Raw Talent"

I dare you. :-)

This is all subjective. It always has been. Without a playoff process, and in some respects even with one, it always will be. "Raw talent" has no inherent meaning. It's just another phrase observers use to subjectively determine who their favorites are. Does Adrian Peterson have raw talent? Apparently, but listen to the sports pundits talk him down as showing his immaturity because he didn't get 100 yards after being injured and not practicing all week.

USC has been ranked #1 since the pre-season. With that ranking going into the season, it would be impossible for them to lose it without a major screw-up, so in that case, yes, being undefeated is the same as not royally screwing up. Similar things can be said about OU, and the debate between OU and Auburn in fact now centers on that subject.

OU (and USC) got its ranking early because of past performance and expectations based on it. As long as they don't lose, they'll likely keep that ranking, although certain pollsters can't see beyond the end-of-the-year meltdown OU had in '03 and fail to consider the injured White of last year as opposed to the healthy one this year. (You're aware, I assume, than many voters never even watch the games in which the teams they vote on play?) Again, the team is being judged on what it did last year more than what it is doing right now. Winning in a difficult game is a *positive* thing. Any coach will tell you that. Sports writers have different motivations.

Is USC good? No doubt about it. Auburn is better. OU might be better. If I had a vote, I'd personally rank Auburn #1 based on what they have done, put OU as #2 for the same reason and leave USC #3 because they have yet to prove themselves.

Forgot to mention ...

Yes, if the Pats string together a series of victories against obviously inferior teams, I'm going to give them less credit for it. A 300 pound man mashing a 98 pound weakling into the sand is no big achievment. This is the one thing that leaves me not more ardently arguing in Auburn's behalf. They've won when it counted against good teams, but they've played a large number of teams that don't fall into the same league as they do. Those victories aren't all that impressive.

[RT Atlanta]

9. AUBURN

Not to knock OU, but at this point, I personally do not believe anyone in the country is playing better than the Tigers. Most of the pollsters recognized this yesterday. I dont want to get ahead of myself, but if AU keeps winning (and the Iron Bowl will be harder than hell this weekend, despite the records), I dont see how one could not vote AU at least No. 2 (I would have them at No. 1 without hesitation at the moment).

War Eagle!

[RoyGBiv]

16. I agree ...

And I'm an OU fan.

[kick-ass-bob]

10. Auburn deserves #1.

Oklahoma and USC should fight for #2.

[GumboYaYa]

11. I think that USC should be #3.

The Pac-10 is weak compared to the Big 12 and the SEC. USC almost lost to Va. Tech, pulled one out against Or. State, and barely beat a pretty bad Stanford team.

Personally, I think that OK and Auburn both would whip USC.

[OKNancy]

12. Monday Nov. 15th BCS

Oklahoma still number one in computer rankings...eeks out #2 still in BCS.

http://msnbc.msn.com/ID/6383073/

Oklahoma remained second in the Bowl Championship Series standings Monday, holding off Auburn because of a stronger computer ranking.

Southern California is still No. 1 with a grade of .9808. Oklahoma’s grade is .9621, and Auburn’s is .9350.

Last week, the Sooners led the Tigers by .0567. Now, Oklahoma’s lead is down to .0271.

The Tigers made up lots of ground on the Sooners in the polls on Sunday, tying Oklahoma for second in The Associated Press Top 25 and getting within two points of No. 2 in the coaches poll.

The polls each count for a third of a BCS grade. A compilation of six computer rankings make up the other third, and according to the computers Oklahoma is the best team in the country.

[lazarus]

13. Wouldn't it be nice

if we had a freakin' playoff system? Just pick the top 16 teams. Use the top 15 bowl games as playoff games over 4 weeks.

Every bowl game suddenly means something. Ratings and money go up, everyone's a winner. Why can't we make this happen?

[RT Atlanta]

14. Even a playoff among the top 4...

that would solve this year's issues once and for all (assuming we still have 3 unbeatens).

[TroubleMan]

15. Auburn

nt.

[Syrinx]

17. As an Alabama fan, it hurts to say...

But I think Auburn is the best team in the country right now. And my battered team plays them this weekend. :scared:

[RT Atlanta]

18. Iron Bowl

Syrinx - I am an AU grad and am excited about the game, but you and I both know that this is truly one game where you can "throw out the record books." I expect UA to play like there's no tomorrow and AU will have to bring its "A" game to win. HOpefully the players are as focused as they have been all year and are letting the fans get caught up in all the BCS talk - if so, then I feel good about the game. If they're distracted in any way, it will be a 4Q ball game.

Here's to a good game with no serious injuries.

War Eagle!

[Syrinx]

28. RT, I hope you're right

But I think Auburn has the best team they've ever had. And the Tide has lost their starting tailback, starting fullback, and we're down to the 3rd string qb. Just about all of our "playmakers" are out, and we didn't have many to begin with because of probation. Plus a lot of other injuries. I'm sure my team (what's left of it) will be fired up. But I will watch anyway (maybe with a blindfold on). Unless a miracle happens, and Bama pulls the upset, I'll be rooting for the Tigers to go all the way.

Here's hoping to a decent game. Roll Tide? ;)

[RT Atlanta]

44. Follow up

Man... the Tide played lights out the first half and still fought the good fight the last half, but I think they ran out of fuel (thank goodness!). Glad it was a clean game with no serious injuries.

[Champ]

19. CAL!!!

I want to see USC vs Cal in the National Championship, then charges of west coast bias will disappear ;)

[bigwillq]

20. Auburn

USC-Auburn would be a titanic clash.

[RedEarth]

21. Oklahoma

I'm just a little bias since I'm an OU grad, my wife is an OU grad and my son is a senior at OU. OU has an outstanding offense, but their defense is suspect...in particular the DB's...however, still have to go with the sooners.

[aldian159]

22. The Tigers

The Big XII is down this year, with the North being a wasteland (Nebraska is bad and KSU is not good either) Auburn beat LSU when they were top 5, UTT when they where top 10, and UGA when they were top 5. OU beat one exceptional team, Texas, and Texas nearly lost to Kansas.

[southlandshari]

23. Auburn

Ok, I'm a hometown fan, but as a Georgia grad and former SEC employee, I HAVE learned some objectivity over the years.

I've been to or watched on tv most of Auburn's games this season, and I have honestly never seen a team that has been so focused on the moment, the play, the game of the day. They have come to play every Saturday, and have struggled very little all season. The effect Al Bourges has had on the offense, especially the long-underrated Jason Campbell, has been incredible to watch. The defensive stats speak for themselves.

Oklahoma has visibly faltered more often. This Saturday will be interesting. Alabama could be the heartbreaking spoiler for Auburn - a team with everything to lose vs. a team with very little to lose on top of one of the most rabid (if recently tepid) college rivalries in the country!

[southlandshari]

24. And let me add...

I LOVE this thread and this forum! I knew that I couldn't be the ONLY DU'er who understands that a love for sports and political activism are not mutually exclusive!

[bsm1970]

25. Auburn

First of all, the SEC is a more balanced conference. The Big 12 North is horrible this year. The team OU will play in their conference title game will have, at a minimum, four losses. They might even have five.

Auburn on the other hand will more than likely go up against a two-loss Tennessee team...and it was Auburn that handed them one of the losses, 34-10 at Tennessee. There are three other teams in the Top 25 from the SEC. All of them have only 2 losses and all of them owe it to Auburn for one of them.

Auburn has had one close call all year...a one point win to the defending national champions (LSU). And that was before anyone had beaten LSU. Besides that game, no one has come closer than 17 points to Auburn in any game. Not Georgia. Not Tennessee. Not Arkansas. No one.

Auburn has the #1 scoring defense (9.3 ppg) in the country and is #16 in scoring offense (34.2 ppg). And that's even with them calling off the dogs in the second half of almost every game and playing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stringers.

Meanwhile OU is attempting to run up the score late against teams like Kansas and Nebraska with the starters still in. Oklahoma is 14th in scoring defense (16.1 ppg) and is 12th in scoring offense (35.6 ppg) even with that factored in.

Sure, Oklahoma has played Texas, Texas A&M, and Okla. State (one neutral, two on the road, and all were tight games). But can you honestly say that those three are better teams than Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee (AU played two at home, one on the road and spanked two of them)? I guess a case could be made that Texas is the best of those six, but after that, I think a case could be made that the three SEC teams are as good or better than the other two Big 12 ones.

I just think if the polls were truly done based on who has actually played better and not on where you were in the preseason, most people would have Auburn #1 or #2. It's time for OU to stop getting a pass just for being OU. They shouldn't have been in the title game last year over USC and they don't deserve it this year either, IMO. At any rate, this argument should be between USC and OU because I think Auburn should be a lock.

[RB TexLa]

26. Auburn

Regardless of what Zero U's schedule ranking is, it's the end of the schedule that counts in the polls. The voters will not look at an Auburn win over Bama and compare it to Zero U's win over Texas, they will compare it to the coming win over Baylor. Also the strength of the SEC East team Auburn would play is going to be much better than whoever wins the Big XII North. This is the same way LSU jumped USC last year.

The worst thing about all of this is the focus on polls and computers when we could just let OU, Auburn, and even Utah and 13 or even 29 other teams play for the championship.

[RedEarth]

27. Roll Tide!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Knock off Auburn this weekend and end this debate.

GO SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[OKNancy]

29. Roll Tide

I'm watching the game. Alabama looks pretty bad on offense but so far they are ahead. I haven't watched Auburn play this year and so far they don't look all that hot. Of course, if they are they great team everyone says, they'll re-group and pull it out.

[southlandshari]

30. It's looking like

they are the great team everyone says (21-6 with 1:37 to go)!

I knew this would not be Auburn's best game, if only because I knew Alabama would play - at home, no less - like they had nothing to lose, which they have.

I still think Auburn is as good as Oklahoma or USC, and hope they get a shot at one of them. I don't take anything away from your Sooners (35-0 - congratulations!!).

Bama just scored at 1:24 (first touchdown for them today) left to play. Still think the game is sealed for the Tigers, though.

On edit:

Final AU 21 - Bama 13

[Syrinx]

35. Alabama lost their entire backfield early in the season

We would have had a great team, but for the season-ending injuries to Brodie Croyle and Ray Hudson. I could name a lot of other playmakers, but I won't. What could have been?

I enjoyed the recent series we had with Oklahoma. Ya'll beat us both times, but they were both good games. And us 'Bama and Sooners fans seem to really get along. Even us liberals. :)

[OKNancy]

36. Yes I remembered that

It was the third string quarterback playing, right?
I thought under the circumstances, Alabama did a pretty good job.
The fact that such a beat up team only lost by 8 pts is an accomplishment.
I'm too prejudiced to make any comment on Auburn. I'm blinded by Sooner-love. ( Oklahoma sucks in so many ways, that's why we love our football. I shouldn't say that. Oklahoma is really a nice place too. It has good and bad, just like every place else. )

While I'm on a tangent here. I've noticed that Bob Stoops doesn't do a lot of god-talk and team open praying. I like that in a coach.

[RoyGBiv]

31. Reflections on the Auburn - Bama game ...

Actually, it's just one reflection.

Auburn, today, faced a game like OU has faced at least three times this season, and they handled it about like Oklahoma did with one exception. OU never got shut down. They struggled, but they were never essentially put out of action for an entire half, not even against Texas or OSU.

I mention this because all the hype lately about whether it should be OU or Auburn that gets to face USC has centered on the fact that Auburn has had runaway victories at the time OU appeared to be struggling against their opponents. Take this game, and what it meant to Alabama, and you have a comparison to the Texas, Texas A&M, and OSU except that in the case of OU's opponents, those teams had exceptional offenses. Had Auburn played they way they played in the 1st half today against any of OU's tough opponents, they would have gone into the locker room down by at least two touchdowns.

In all, I think this shows the two are about equal in talent, with a slight edge to OU for consistency against tougher opponents. And, I still maintain USC isn't as good as either.

[lazarus]

32. Let's not forget

That, despite all their problems on offense, Alabama has the #1 defense in the country.

[bsm1970]

33. Counterpoint

Oklahoma may have not been shut down offensively, but they did have the opposite problem: a defense that was leaking like a sieve. A&M and OSU both ran up big numbers on you guys. If either of them had a decent defense, you're in big trouble. In fact, if A&M just doesn't fumble inside their own 10 twice, you lose that game. The difference may not be much, but I still give the edge to Auburn.

[RoyGBiv]

34. Point not taken ...

:-)

Seriously, though, OU's weakness seems to be the pass defense, particularly deep.

A counter-point to that is precisely what you mentioned though. A&M and OSU have very good passing offenses, so it would naturally show there. OU's run defense is as powerful as it has ever been. Dan Cody is just scary. (I knew him when he was 16. He was scary then too. :-)

Anyway, I'll retract my subject (just an attention-getter really) and say your point is taken. The defense is what worries me, which is weird because it is rarely been OU's defense that has worried me in the past, and in those cases it was usually that they sucked all around.

Bottom line for me is I think OU and Auburn should face each other. I doubt that will happen given USC's position, but it should. My kingdom for a real playoff system.

[bsm1970]

42. Actually....

Oklahoma State has a rather terrible passing offense. They just did that against OU. They are currently ranked 108th out of 117 teams in Div 1-A. Now A&M is pretty good. They're ranked 17th.

I agree on the playoff. It's really frustrating to see Auburn kick ass all year long, go undefeated, but be looking at the prospect of being shut out of the title game.

[YNGW]

37. Auburn

Put Auburn in the Big 12 this year and they run the tables just like they did the SEC. Put Oklahoma in the SEC this year and they come out 6-2, maybe even 5-3.

[OKNancy]

38. AP poll ( one third of BCS) has OK ranked 2nd

Auburn slips back in AP ranking despite win over Alabama

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6549202/

[RoyGBiv]

39. BCS ...

Here's something no one ever talks about. I hadn't even really noticed it myself until today.

In the BCS rankings last week, OU was closer to USC than Auburn was to OU. OU trails USC by .0187. Auburn trails OU by .0271.

With this being the case, I'm curious why all the talk is of whether Auburn or OU should be #2 when the closer race is between OU and USC.

[OKNancy]

40. Because the press loves a tale of a so-called

underdog, and they also are hoping USC stays where they are for TV ratings.
Of course you and I know it also has to do with punishing OU for the screw-up last year.

[RoyGBiv]

41. Last year ...

Exactly.

[NaturalHigh]

43. I think it's pretty much a done deal...

Unless Oklahoma screws up and loses in the Big 12 championship game, it's going to be OU and USC in the Orange Bowl.

[RT Atlanta]

45. Hopefully ND will have something to say too...

I am an Auburn grad and "we" are done unless there's a loss. So.... I will be a Notre Dame fan (hard to believe!) this weekend and pull for UCLA as well as whomever OU is playing in its championship.

War Eagle!