Kentucky Derby Trail: And Away We Go

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From The Bloodhorse:
The journey on the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) Trail officially began last weekend, and although none of the major stars were in action, there were enough solid performances – both gutsy and explosive -- to start the year off in a positive way.

The main event was Saturday's one-mile Aventura Stakes at Gulfstream, which got mixed reviews. The negatives were the out-of-the-money finishes by the three stakes winners in the field – Saint Daimon, Catcominatcha, and In Summation. Closers Saint Daimon and Catcominatcha never were a factor, and In Summation battled on the lead with the promising Little Cliff as far he went before tiring to finish fifth as the even-money favorite. Little Cliff also tired badly from his efforts to finish eighth.

One had to be impressed with the first two finishers, Doctor Decherd and Itsallboutthechase, both of whom had only a maiden score to their credit, and both of whom showed a good deal of courage battling down the stretch while pulling 5 1/4 lengths clear of third-place finisher My Golden Song, who went into the race having won both his starts for Todd Pletcher.

Doctor Decherd was particularly impressive, being stuck between horses down the entire backstretch. Even when Itsallboutthechase came charging up on his outside, again putting him in a tight spot, he never flinched. When Shaun Bridgmohan asked him, he responded and bulled his way to the lead, while still between horses. In midstretch, Itsallboutthechase pulled up alongside and seemed to have all the momentum, but Doctor Decherd fought back and stuck his nose in front at the wire.

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31663

[aaronbees]

1. Stevie Wonderboy...

is racing today in the San Rafael at Santa Anita! :)

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2. Brother Derek Tops Chart in San Rafael

From the Bloodhorse:
In spite of his grade I victory in the Hollywood Futurity last month, Brother Derek has been ignored on the national scene, his trainer, Dan Hendricks feels. But after Saturday's impressive win over Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) champ Stevie Wonderboy under steady handling by Alex Solis in the $150,000 San Rafael (gr. II) at Santa Anita, that shouldn't be the case any longer.

"He's a solid, good-minded, talented 3-year-old and we're all just overjoyed to be along for the ride," Hendricks said after the California-bred son of Benchmark turned back Stevie Wonderboy by 1 1/2 lengths while making every post a winning one. The winning time for the mile was 1:36 on a fast main track that took quite a bit of rain earlier in the day. The rain resulted in two scratches, reducing the San Rafael field to four.

Brother Derek, a $275,000 Barretts buy in March 2005, won his third graded stakes race for owner Cecil N. Peacock of Calgary and avenged his fourth-place finish behind Stevie Wonderboy in the BC Juvenile Oct. 29 at Belmont Park. Both colts carried 122 pounds Saturday.

Wonderboy, the likely 2005 Eclipse winner as the nation's top 2-year-old, was making his first appearance since the Juvenile while trying two turns for the first time in the San Rafael. He acquitted himself well for jockey Garrett Gomez, but in spite of urging in the stretch, he was no match on this day for Brother Derek, who had everything going his way.

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31728


Risen Star an Open, Shut Case for Lawyer Ron
James T. Hines Jr.'s homebred Lawyer Ron had the final word in Saturday's $268,000 Risen Star (gr. III) for 3-year-olds, romping to victory over six foes at the Fair Grounds meeting at Harrah's Louisiana Downs.

With regular rider John McKee aboard, Lawyer Ron was keen from the start, taking the lead from Mark of Success on the backstretch and leading the rest of the way in his graded stakes debut. He drew off in the stretch to win by 8 1/4 lengths in a solid time of 1:43 for the 1 1/16-mile distance.

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31727

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3. After San Rafael, Derby plot thickens

From DRF:
NEW YORK - If you were a big fan of Stevie Wonderboy before Saturday's San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita, nothing that happened in that race should shake your faith in him, even if he did have to settle for second as the 3-5 favorite to Brother Derek.

If you had been skeptical of Stevie Wonderboy, specifically his prospects of winning the Kentucky Derby on May 6, then the San Rafael could validate your position.

Either way, the outcome of the San Rafael did serve to alter the big picture of the Kentucky Derby by bringing the top-ranked Derby aspirants into closer order. Get used to it. It is still only January.

For those who believe Stevie Wonderboy has the stuff to become the first Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner to win the Derby, and the first champion 2-year-old to win the Derby since Spectacular Bid - he is a mortal lock to receive that honor at the Eclipse Award dinner on Monday night in Beverly Hills - there are ample reasons to take Stevie Wonderboy's defeat Saturday with a grain of salt. For one, the San Rafael was Stevie Wonderboy's first start in nearly three months. He had only four published breezing workouts since he won the Juvenile, and this being only January, he was certainly not going to be sharpened to a razor's edge for this go-around.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/71578.html

[Awsi Dooger]

4. I'm not looking for a thickening plot

I want a superhorse. The sport needs a freak superhorse. A thickening plot is mediocrity by definition.

When I was a teenager I remember the same thing said about Seattle Slew's 3 year old debut. He hadn't run in months since the Champagne, three lifetime races total, and Billy Turner was notoriously conservative in number and speed of workouts. Many people at Hialeah that day in early '77 thought Slew would lose. Meanwhile, he whisked around the course in a track record, barely over 1:20 for 7 furlongs, despite a complete hand ride and eased toward the wire.

So pardon me if I'm not impressed by a runnerup outing. For decades I was comfortable, if not happy, that the Triple Crown was elusive, since I didn't want Secretariat, Slew and Affirmed joined by many others who would cheapen the accomplishment. Now it's time but the damn breeding sheds aren't cooperating.

[aaronbees]

5. Don't see a superhorse this year...

yet. Though I'm still impressed with Wonderboy. I think he came up short in this race and can use the experience. Still a long way to go to May ... frankly, I'm souring on the Triple Crown chances these days considering Smarty and Alex couldn't bring them home -- two excellent runners, just short of great ... but they sure showed flashes of brilliance. At this point, I'd settle for Triple Crown horses who simply made it to the end of the year.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Point Given and Afleet Alex blew the Derby

Then were awesome in the final two legs. I would have been fine with either one as Triplers. But I'm glad Smarty Jones flopped in the stretch to Birdstone. I didn't want a glorified sprinter wobbling down the stretch in a 27 second final quarter and holding on for a cheap Triple simply because the field was so pathetic.

I do like Wonderboy and I think this year's top few are better than most recent years. But I still think a legit Triple Crown superstar will certify himself in the fall of his 2 year old campaign, like Secretariat, Slew, Affirmed and near-miss Spectacular Bid. If no one is trumpeting the possibility/likelihood at this point, it's not going to happen.

[aaronbees]

8. Well...

I wouldn't say he's a glorified sprinter if he comes up 100 yards short at the Belmont -- but it surely was a stretch for him, and he was cooked by Eddington and Rock Hard Ten to boot (both of whom showed some talent at 4, so I think that crop was better than advertised). At the Kentucky Derby distance, Smarty was just fine. I'm looking forward to seeing how his babies do (first ones just arrived).

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I admittedly didn't like Smarty

The unbeaten aspect and the absurdity of being compared to Seattle Slew in that regard would have been far too much for me to bear. I literally lost my joice screaming for Birdstone down the stretch. That was the greatest clutch loss in recent horse racing history.

[Justpat]

12. LOL. I felt the same way.

Especially about being compared to Seattle Slew.

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15. I liked the hell outta Smarty Jones...

I never thought he was a superhorse though. I felt he was good for the sport and people liked his story.

He may have wobbled down the stretch in The Belmont but he never quit. He gave everything he had. To me, that says everything I need to know about a racehorse.

Glorified sprinter? Nah, just a real good classic distance thoroughbred that I would give my right arm to have.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. The unbeaten aspect was the problem

That invited comparison to Slew, which was obscene. I'm glad Old Broad feels the same way. In the weeks leading up to the Belmont I even saw online comparisons which were suggesting Smarty was better than Slew, so my intensity level to see Smarty beaten increased exponentially.

My long held belief is Slew was an absolute freak who was never given his proper due, primarily because Billy Turner was a very conservative trainer who didn't shoot for margins or records. In every race as a 3 year old other than the Preakness when he was pushed by a very fast horse named Cormorant and then Iron Constitution came on late, Slew was basically eased down the stretch so the margins often decreased and you didn't have that awesome sight of a horse drawing off with every stride.

But recently my friend showed me a hypothetical race called involving all the greats from Man 'O War forth, and Slew came in second in first place votes among racing experts, with 9 to Secretariat's 17. So perhaps Slew receives more credit that I thought from racing experts, if not the general public.

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17. I understand your feelings...

Slew was an amazing horse. His races were exciting. For me, that is all that matters.

[aaronbees]

19. Admittedly, I'm a Smarty fanatic

But, yes, the Slew comparisons were premature. All that said, I can't stand that little two-hit plodder Birdstone :P

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7. Candidates line up to be next Alex

From DRF:
Who's got the big horse? That's the big question at Oaklawn Park, where the winners of four of the last six Triple Crown races have been based. Smarty Jones won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2004, and Afleet Alex won the Preakness and Belmont in 2005....

Lawyer Ron earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 106 last Saturday for his eight-length win in the Grade 3 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds meet at Louisiana Downs. It was the third straight win for Lawyer Ron, a Langfuhr colt who one start before romped by more than eight lengths in the $100,000 Diamond Jo going a mile at Evangeline Downs on Dec. 31....


http://www.drf.com/news/article/71621.html

[aaronbees]

9. LR looks solid...

I'm hoping to get up to Oaklawn sometime this season -- great corned beef sandwiches there ;)

[Justpat]

10. Bill Clinton's mother was a fixture there.

She loved the track. That is one track I haven't been to yet.

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13. First Samurai Cranks It Up in Gulfstream Drill

From The Bloodhorse:
Kentucky Derby (gr. I) hopeful First Samurai blistered the Gulfstream Park main track Sunday morning, working seven furlongs in 1:23 2/5 for his imminent 3-year-old debut.

Bruce Lunsford and Lansdon Robbins III's chestnut colt by Giant's Causeway is trained by Frank Brothers. His wife, Donna Barton Brothers, was in the saddle for Sunday's workout as the colt gets close to a probable start in the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) at seven furlongs on Feb. 4.

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31840

Bob and John Gets Back On Track for Baffert

Bob and John, trainer Bob Baffert's most accomplished Triple Crown prospect, returned to the winner's circle Friday with a three-length victory in a $52,800 allowance event at Santa Anita while traveling 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.81.

The Stonerside Stable homebred son of Seeking the Gold got back on track following a third-place finish behind Brother Derek and Your Tent Or Mine in the Hollywood Futurity (gr. I) on Dec. 17.

Bob and John previously had raced to a seeming six-length domination of Hollywood Park's $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes only to be controversially disqualified for interference through the stretch and placed third.

Thus, Friday's victory was the dark bay colt's first since breaking his maiden by 11 ½ lengths last summer at Del Mar.

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31821

[Justpat]

14. Wow. That is smokin' for a morning work.

Most horses don't run that fast in the afternoon.

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18. Kentucky Derby Trail: 10 to Watch

From The Bloodhorse:
It's hard to believe that betting in the first Kentucky Derby (gr. I) Future Wager pool is here already. We all are aware this is pretty much a riskier bet in January, considering most of the horses in the starting field will be grossly under-priced and many will not even make it to the race. With that said, here are 10 new faces to the Derby trail that bear watching.

Because of the number of maiden and allowance races being run now at so many distances, the list has been restricted to horses who have been seven furlongs or farther. That eliminates a number of promising, but inexperienced, horses who have not yet proven themselves over 6 1/2 furlongs. Several of those will be mentioned farther down.

Here in alphabetical order are 10 horses who still have some catching up to do, but have shown enough promise to suggest they can make great strides in the next month or so and become a major force on the Derby trail....

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=31897

[aaronbees]

20. I'm intrigued by Well Armed...

and this year's Derby prospects are all over the map and too plentiful. I'd say my top three right now are: Stevie Wonderboy, Brother Derek, Private Vow.

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21. I recently read a short interview with the trainer...

of Well Armed. It kind of got me interested in him. I look forward to seeing him race.

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22. Kentucky Derby Trail: Believe in the Cause

From The Bloodhorse:
Several of the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) preps fell apart last weekend, and the Southern California invaders got hammered by the boys up North in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), but we did see an honest, classy colt in Cause to Believe, and there was plenty of other news on the Derby trail.....

The main attraction last weekend, as mentioned, was the El Camino Real Derby, which again saw A.P. Warrior self destruct. It seems apparent this colt resents restraint, and in his last two starts he was stoutly restrained, fighting the rider early. Many times, when a horse fights his jockey he will sulk when it is time to run or just exhausts too much energy. Whatever the case with A.P. Warrior, he has not been a happy horse and has thrown in too many clunkers to be considered a top Derby candidate any longer. If trainer Eoin Harty can figure something out fast, he still could get him straightened out in time.

The winner, Cause to Believe, is one of those horses you'd love to have in your barn. He's all heart and is as consistent as they come. You don't see many horses boasting a record of eight starts, five wins and three seconds at six different distances from 4 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. He did get a ground-saving ride, but came through a tight spot in the upper stretch, and when you can come home in :23 3/5, :24 1/5, and :06 3/5, that's serious running. And his final sixteenth would have been faster, and he would have won by a bigger margin than three-quarters of a length, had he not jumped over to his left lead and briefly lost his action when Russell Baze cracked him right-handed with the whip.

Baze said he was spooked by a set of tire tracks, but he actually had cleared those tracks while still on his right lead, and was in the process of drawing away. When Baze hit him, he threw his ears up and awkwardly switched back to his left lead, while giving a quick and subtle flick of his tail, as if he resented being hit at that point.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32005


El Camino Real winner Cause to Believe
should be a serious contender on the
Derby trail.