Kentucky Derby thread

[Justpat]

My top picks:

Circular Cay
Scat Daddy
Curlin


OK, guys, who do you like?

I'll cry like a baby if Pletcher wins, but I like two of his horses this year.

[aaronbees]

1. You can see some of this past week's Keeneland works online

CQ and Rags to Riches worked together again this morning.

http://ww2.keeneland.com/racing/Lists/Video%20Features/allitemsalt.aspx

I'll make my final pic later this week after hearing the reports from the track -- it'll almost certainly be Street Sense or Nobiz.

[Justpat]

2. I'll check out the works. n/t

[aaronbees]

11. What did you think?

Actually, both Rags and CQ looked great to me - Scat Daddy was a real pro, too. Didn't much care for Any Given Saturday's work, though. Curlin's starting to grow on me; too bad he's got that particular trainer.

[trumad]

3. Scat Daddy easily

Ran a 1:49 in the Florida Derby which matches Barbaros time the year before--1:49.01

Plus---the odds will be nice.

[aaronbees]

4. Video of Barbaro's little bro

http://www.heraldleaderphoto.com/multimedia/barbaros/brother.html

And today is Barbaro's birthday.

[trumad]

6. 7 days old---

It's amazing how fast they grow.

[two gun sid]

5. My pick...

Scat Daddy.



OB, at least it's not Frankel.

[Justpat]

10. This is true.

god, that is a great pic of Scat Daddy.

He has gotten so much stronger in the last couple of months.

[trumad]

15. Same Jockey who rode Barbaro last year

rides Scat Daddy this year.

<snip>
Michael Matz burned his critics a year ago by racing Barbaro in the Florida Derby, and waiting five weeks to win the Run for the Roses.

Scat Daddy didn't just follow Barbaro's path to the Derby by winning the Florida Derby, but the same jockey who won aboard Barbaro will ride Scat Daddy. Edgar Prado won his first Derby a year ago and dedicated the race to his mother, who had died earlier in the year.
http://www.miamiherald.com/588/story/94697.html

[jakefrep]

7. Hmmmm.....

Tiago
Circular Quay
Nobiz Like Showbiz

[PDittie]

8. No Biz like Showbiz

sounds like a good sleeper. I want a little sump'm that will pop at a price.

[Ganja Ninja]

22. 8 to 1 odds is pretty good, worth betting on.

Here's his record:

Race History :: Graded Earnings: $778,500 (as of 04.07.07) - Race Record: 6-4-1-1
Date Race Finish Chart Recap Video Comment
04.07.07 Wood Memorial 1st Chart Recap Video Steady urging for last 1/2 mile
03.03.07 Fountain of Youth (GII) 3rd Chart Recap Video Three wide trip, game effort
02.03.07 Holy Bull (GIII) 1st Chart Recap Video In hand at wire
11.25.06 Remsen (GII) 1st Chart Video Overpowered foes
10.14.06 Champagne (GI) 2nd Chart Video Game in defeat
09.09.06 Maiden @ Belmont 1st Chart Video Facile 10 3/4 length score


4 1st place finishes
1 second place finish
1 third place finish

You could do a lot worse.

[Bryan Sacks]

9. Scat Daddy should be longer odds than Nobiz

Like Tiago and Scat Daddy myself - as of today :)

[aaronbees]

12. A few nice Derby week sites

I really enjoy the woman who runs http://www.turfangels.com and posts a daily report during Derby week. Great photos and some casual aside observations about the crew of horses as they roll into town. Sid, you have to check out the Stormello pic she got for today's roundup.

Of course, at http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/index.asp Haskin's in for his daily dose of musings and intriguing stories (such as his exploration of Sam P.'s name few days back). He's really an observer about Derby week preparations I keep a close eye on - he's very sharp at this time of year. Also, the Morning Line at that Blood Horse site with Evan Hammonds and Claire Novak is fun; he caught a good quote from Larry Jones after Hard Spun's blistering work today.

Also, some of the bloggers at http://www.thoroughbredbloggersalliance.com/feed.html can give a fair bit of analysis and newsy or tomfoolery stuff. One of them did biorhtyhm charts on most of the contenders - according to that blogger, Tiago is coming into a good one. :D

[two gun sid]

14. Great pictures....

Stormello is a monster. Damn, I like the looks of that horse. Met Mile, King's Bishop and the BC Dirt Mile is where he'd race if I owned him.

[trumad]

17. Check out this nailbiter.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=m-c-bXAiGsc

[two gun sid]

29. What a race...

thanks for the link. I've been a Stormello fan since last year but Scat Daddy ran a helluva race in FOY.

[aaronbees]

13. Post positions drawn today with morning line odds

1 Sedgefield 50-1 Darrin Miller Julien Leparoux
2 Curlin 7-2 Steve Asmussen Robby Albarado
3 Zanjero 30-1 Steve Asmussen Shaun Bridgmohan
4 Storm in May 30-1 Bill Kaplan Juan Leyva
5 Imawildandcrazyguy 50-1 Bill Kaplan Mark Guidry
6 Cowtown Cat 20-1 Todd Pletcher Fernando Jara
7 Street Sense 4-1 Carl Nafzger Calvin Borel
8 Hard Spun 15-1 Larry Jones Mario Pino
9 Liquidity 30-1 Doug O'Neill David Flores
10 Teuflesberg 30-1 Jamie Sanders Stewart Elliott
11 Bwana Bull 50-1 Jerry Hollendorfer Javier Castellano
12 Nobiz Like Shobiz 8-1 Barclay Tagg Cornelio Velasquez
13 Sam P. 20-1 Todd Pletcher Ramon Dominguez
14 Scat Daddy 10-1 Todd Pletcher Edgar Prado
15 Tiago 15-1 John Shirreffs Mike Smith
16 Circular Quay 8-1 Todd Pletcher John Velazquez
17 Stormello 30-1 Bill Currin Kent Desormeaux
18 Any Given Saturday 12-1 Todd Pletcher Garrett Gomez
19 Dominican 20-1 Darrin Miller Rafael Bejarano
20 Great Hunter 15-1 Doug O'Neill Corey Nakatani

Source: http://www.bloodhorse.com

[jakefrep]

16. Teofilo out of 2000 Guineas

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/racing/article1740867.ece

Sounds like a minor knee injury - he will be pointed toward the Derby at Epsom instead.

[Justpat]

18. Decided against Circular Quay

eight weeks between races. What gives with that. He must have done something to himself
in the Risen Star that made them go very easy on him.


Scat Daddy
Curlin
Tiago for a longshot

[aaronbees]

21. CQ also hasn't run 1 1/8 miles

Otherwise I'd maybe give him a shot given Pletcher's success off layoffs. CQ's the only Pletcher colt I'd be really rooting for. He's a little spry thing and this may be too much for him now.

[GOPisEvil]

19. OJ Simpson picks Tiago.

:shrug:

[aaronbees]

20. LOL

He's off my ticket now. Damn, that horse doesn't deserve this embarrassment. :D

[u4ic]

36. What happens to him if he doesn't win?

:scared:

[aaronbees]

23. Kentucky Oaks coming up right now ... 2 minutes to post

I like Rags to Riches. She's a freak. But I'll take Dreaming of Anna and Octave to fill out the tri.

[Justpat]

24. I don't have HRTV.

Could you post the results?

[aaronbees]

25. Rags won by 4 1/4 lengths...easy as pie...

Octave was, of course, second, with High Heels third. Dreaming of Anna led them a long ways before fading to sixth. Very impressive race ... and the weekend starts off right for Pletcher.

[Justpat]

26. Rags To Riches by four

I watched it on the teensy weensy little screen on Churchill Downs site.

Better than nothing.

What a spectacular filly.

[aaronbees]

27. Here's my final superfecta pick (Street Sense on top) - what's yours?

1. Street Sense
2. Nobiz Like Shobiz
3. Dominican
4. Scat Daddy

(But I root for Nobiz.)



And just for kicks, here's 5-10:

5. Curlin
6. Circular Quay
7. Hard Spun
8. Any Given Saturday
9. Tiago
10. Zanjero

[two gun sid]

28. Hey, where's Stormello?....

I'm wearing my Stormello hat all day tomorrow. He's gonna be one of the top 10 finishers. LOL.

Good luck tomorrow, aaronbees and the best of luck to all you other railbirds. It's nice to see some new faces in horse racing thread. This is the greatest most interesting game in the world.

[aaronbees]

34. I'm wearing my Smarty Jones cap

And I hope Stormello proves me wrong, sid!

Best of luck to you and everyone else here and may it be a wonderful race!

[two gun sid]

51. Poor Stormello....

I hope that haven't ruined him. At the least, they should give him some time off.

[Justpat]

55. He was stuck on the outside but looked to be getting out also.

I think he needs a rest too.

Three times across the country in 6-7 weeks a nuts.

[aaronbees]

66. I like your idea of running him in the Met Mile, etc.

Give him some time off and he'll come back just fine, I hope. I think Teuflesberg would be a good miler too.

[PDittie]

30. I think I'm gonna throw

Street Sense and Scat Daddy into an exacta box with some combination of longer shots -- Zanjero, Great Hunter, Any Given Saturday. maybe.

Maybe No Biz if the odds lengthen some, but I've turned away from him as the week has gone by. I was liking Cowtown Cat's 20-1, but after reading about his meltdown at the Turf Angels link above I stepped off.

Quite a bit of talking up of Liquidity late in the week.

[Justpat]

32. I've been all over the map so far,

but here is my superfecta:
Hard Spun
Street Sense
Circular Quay
Scat Daddy

[aaronbees]

46. Nice call, OB

Two of the top four - I wonder what happened to Scat Daddy (maybe his feet bothered him with the bar shoe issue?). Like Nobiz, he loomed for a bit then fell back. CQ should improve off this, don't you think? Gonna be a great Preakness.

[Justpat]

56. When I placed the actual bet I had put Curlin in third.

Then that Imawildandcrazyguy went and finished fourth and ruined my day.

[PDittie]

31. Latest odds (7 p.m Friday):

http://www.drf.com/news/article/84655.html

With $371,212 bet into the win pool, Street Sense was the 9-2 favorite for the 133th Kentucky Derby as of 7 p.m. Eastern on Friday. Scat Daddy was a slight second choice over Curlin, with both being 6-1, while Hard Spun was the fourth choice at 10-1, followed by Tiago, also at 10-1. Stormello, at 48-1, was the longest longest shot in the field of 20.

Advance Derby odds

1, Sedgefield, 46-1

2, Curlin, 6-1

3, Zanjero, 34-1

4, Storm In May, 20-1

5, Imawildandcrazyguy, 18-1

6, Cowtown Cat, 18-1

7, Street Sense, 9-2

8, Hard Spun, 10-1

9, Liquidity, 46-1

10, Teuflesberg, 44-1

11, Bwana Bull, 35-1

12, Nobiz Like Shobiz, 12-1

13, Sam P., 47-1

14, Scat Daddy, 6-1

15, Tiago, 10-1

16, Circular Quay, 14-1

17, Stormello, 48-1

18, Any Given Saturday, 21-1

19, Dominican, 17-1

20, Great Hunter, 26-1

[Horse with no Name]

33. I like Storm in May--gotta root for the blind gray horse

Curlin to place
Sedgefield to show.

Zanjero is my longshot.

I picked Barbaro last year and my longshot winner year before was Giacomo.
I'm feeling good about this pick.:)

[u4ic]

35. Hi everyone!

:hi:

I haven't been following the ponies as much as previous years - so my picks are really a stab in the dark, only watched a few videos.

I'll take Hard Spun or Curlin, though I have some concerns about the former's ability to get the distance.

Longshot - Great Hunter.

I'm much better at picking winners on the turf, I pretty much suck at dirt.:P


May they all come home safe! :toast:

[aaronbees]

37. Hey, u4ic

Nice picks there; Curlin could really be special but he's a play against in my book .... did you see the 2,000 Guineas? Big upset! (And too bad about Teofilo.) Wonder who the Queen is betting on today... lol.

:D :toast: :hi: :pals:

[u4ic]

40. Hi aaronbees!

:hi:

I just finished a post about the Euros. I'm really bummed about Teofilo.

Here are a couple of his races of last year courtesy of youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rxh7yD7cRx4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBXV4LTlnhk

Coolmore retired Holy Roman Emperor to replace George Washington at stud.


I'm pretty much watching from the sidelines today - I'm not rooting for anyone in particular. :)

[Justpat]

45. Hello, u4ic!

great to see you here again. :)

[u4ic]

47. Hi Old Broad!

:bounce:

How are things going for you?

[Justpat]

54. Things are pretty good here.

My two year old came to Belmont last week and looks like he belongs here.

I'll post a pic of him as soon as I can take one in the am.

glad to see you here again.

[u4ic]

60. I'd loveto see a pic of him

:D

Good luck with him, and all your stable. :hug:

[Justpat]

77. OK.

I'll post it in a couple of days after I get the pictures developed.



:hug: to you too.

[two gun sid]

52. Hi, u4ic. Good to see you!

Hope you enjoyed Derby Day and I hope you enjoyed that nice win in the Woodford Reserve by Canada's best horse, Sky Conqueror.

[u4ic]

61. Hi sid!

Yes, I enjoyed Derby day - 'twas a great race - and was thrilled to hear about Sky Conqueror. :toast:

I saw Jambalaya was making noise in Florida earlier on this year. I'm glad to see we've got a couple of competitive stakes horses again. (Jambalaya was even profiled on the Racing Post's pedigree page)

[u4ic]

38. Cockney Rebel wins the 2000 Guineas

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38797

The 1000 Guineas is tomorrow.


Looks like Teofilo may not make it for the Derby :-(

He was out of the 2000 Guineas with an injury. The owners were going to race him in all three Triple Crown races.

[jakefrep]

53. I was all psyched to watch the Guineas on TV yesterday...

....but all TVG was showing was the English equivalent of Thistledown. I don't get HRTV :(

Didn't realize till too late that it was on youbet.com. I had a hunch about Cockney Rebel.

[trumad]

39. Played it a bit safe

Instead of playing Scat Daddy to win---I boxed him with the field in a 2 buck exacta.

76 buckaroos for that one.

[GOPisEvil]

41. Post time prediction - Any Given Saturday!

THey're off!

[GOPisEvil]

42. **SPOILER ALERT**

Street Sense wins. First ever winner of the BC Juvenile to win the Derby.

[aaronbees]

43. That Street Sense run was pure poetry

Incredible! And a masterful ride by Calvin.

On to the Preakness!

[Awsi Dooger]

44. I loved the way Street Sense won it

Be true to yourself. Skim the rail and don't be scared it won't work in a 20 horse field.

I'm bored by late bloomers and overachievers and all that sideshow crap. Give me pure ability, and long demonstrated. This finally seems like the '70s again, when the 2 year olds would demonstrate freakish ability and carry it over to age 3. Street Sense is the first 3 year old I've rooted for strongly since Swale in '84.

I'm thrilled he won it. Corel's reaction was pure gold. Nice price for a horse with that much talent.

I think it helped me to be on vacation in Hawaii the past three weeks until a couple of days ago. I didn't see Curlin's last prep or listen to any of the pre-race hype or analysis. My friend Wayne is the best horse racing handicapper I know and he was emphatic about Street Sense winning the Derby. I mentioned that a month or so ago in a long horse racing thread in this forum.

Now it looks like the Preakness is the major stumbling block to the elusive Triple Crown. No doubt we'll have some lurkers and Street Sense will need to stay much closer to the pace.

One negative: NBC's coverage was garbage at the beginning. All the celebrity focus was making me scream. At least they did a great job with My Old Kentucky Home, displaying the words in simple fashion at the bottom.

[u4ic]

48. I agree about the coverage

Damn, I hate that crap too. They do it every year.

We rarely get racing coverage here anymore on (Canadian) national networks any more, but at least they focus on the horses.

[trumad]

49. Fucking Chalk!

;-)

[Awsi Dooger]

57. Yeah, but that was value chalk

Technically the favorite but paying nearly 5/1. I don't think there's any question Street Sense beats that field more often than once in 6 tries, if they ran the race again and again.

His trainer points to major races and that allowed the Derby price to rise to reasonable level. If Street Sense had run three preps and won them handily, you would have been looking at 3/2 Derby odds and not nearly 5/1.

The more I look at that race, Pletcher really screwed up by giving Circular Quay the ridiculous 8 week layoff. Most of the top finishers other than Hard Spun came from back in the pack. Hell, even Curlin got shuffled into the bottom half then rallied for 3rd. I still think Circular Quay is one of the most talented 3-year-olds in this crop but as a deep stretch runner he needs everything to set up for him. You're not going to have many better opportunities to rally than young 3 year olds stopping at a mile and a quarter, but I think Pletcher partially gave away that edge by putting Circular Quay out there at less than his best.

[trumad]

58. Fucking Chalk!

;-)

[aaronbees]

64. Paid pretty well for chalk....

And Scat Daddy wasn't much higher in the odds. ;)

[trumad]

68. Scat was at 7

street was at 7/2...

7 aint chalk---7/2 is.

[Awsi Dooger]

69. Fuzzy math

Street Sense wasn't 7/2. He may have been 7/2 briefly during the early wagering on Friday, but all day Saturday he was in the 9/2 or 5/1 range.

He paid $11.80 to win, just one tick below 5/1.

[trumad]

71. you're right---I'm wrong

still fucking chalk....;-)

[two gun sid]

50. Congratulations to Street Sense and connections...

it was nice to see a guy like Borel win a race like the Kentucky Derby.

Pletcher sure had a shitty day.

[Justpat]

59. Calvin Borel to meet our own King George and Queen Elizabeth at WH

Tomorrow, Calvin Borel gets to meet Bush and the Queen at the WH at a State Dinner

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2007/May/06/Jockey-Borel-to-join-President-Bush-Queen-Elizabeth-at-State-Dinner.aspx

[aaronbees]

65. Poor guy....

But maybe the Queen needs a new jock. :) Good for him to get this notoriety - his reaction was one of the sweetest things about seeing this Derby.

[u4ic]

62. Finsceal Beo wins the 1000 Guineas

HE ONCE had designs on winning four out of the five Classics this year, but Jim Bolger was content to see his blueprint yield just one of those goals to Finsceal Beo on Saturday.

After a week in which the trainer had been forced to scratch the favourite Teofilo from the Stan James 2,000 Guineas, the first leg of an assault on the Triple Crown, there were no thoughts of what might have been from Bolger when Finsceal Beo, whose name means 'living legend' in the Irish language, captured the 1,000 Guineas.

She covered the course in 1m 34.94, a time 0.14 secs quicker than the fastest 2,000 Guineas run by Mister Baileys in 1994, and 0.4secs outside the course record.

http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/master.sd?psection=racingpost.co.uk&page=News&category=Reports&story_id=894696

[aaronbees]

67. I was impressed with her

Hope she lives up to her name!

Here's the race on the youtubes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSOjhpYiWxE (no sound, unfortunately) ... and here's a race she won last year: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sedL4r6APmk. She's got quite the acceleration.

[Justpat]

70. u4ic, what is the word from trainers at Woodbine

concerning the Polytrack?

Has it been favorably received so far?

Initially they had some trouble with it shortly after it was installed last season.
I wonder how people like it now that it has been worked on.

[Awsi Dooger]

63. Preakness possibles

From an article in the DRF: http://www.drf.com/news/article/84672.html

"Street Sense is expected to be challenged in the Preakness by as many as four other horses exiting the Derby, including runner-up Hard Spun.

“He came out of it well. He ate every bite,” Larry Jones, the trainer of Hard Spun, said Sunday morning.

Jones said Hard Spun would go to Jones’s summer headquarters, Delaware Park, on Monday morning and would remain there until being sent by van to Pimlico, probably on Wednesday of Preakness week.

Curlin, who finished third in the Derby; Sedgefield, who was fifth; and Teuflesberg, who was 17th, are other Derby runners who could come back in the Preakness.

There are at least six horses who did not run in the Derby whom the Maryland Jockey Club on Sunday said it expects for the Preakness, most notably Chelokee, who was third in the Florida Derby. Chelokee is trained by Michael Matz, and would be running in the Preakness one year after Matz’s Barbaro, the 2006 Derby winner, suffered his catastrophic injuries in the Preakness.

Other new shooters, according to the Maryland Jockey Club, are C.P. West, King of the Roxy, Slew’s Tizzy, Xchanger, and either Flying First Class or Starbase, the latter two trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who has won the Preakness five times."

[trumad]

74. Now I'll pick Curlin....

Although I heard Scat Daddy is still running the last furlong...;-)

[two gun sid]

75. That's not a bad bet, trumad...

Curlin ran better in the Derby than I thought he would. The Preakness might be a good fit for him.

[aaronbees]

78. I don't see Street Sense being beat but ....

if it happens I like Curlin the best to do it. Hard Spun, I think, should get more pace pressure up front. I still don't buy Chelokee as a threat.

[Awsi Dooger]

76. I suck at picking the Preakness

Some of my worst losses have been in that race. Especially the year Louis Quatorze won. I bet many matchups (one horse versus another) and lost every one of them.

The only years I did well were the recent stretch when the Derby winners would waltz in the Preakness, then lose the Belmont.

It should be pointed out to DU newcomers that trumad was emphatic that Smarty Jones would lose the Belmont. He started a separate "I guarantee..." thread in that regard, in the Lounge. I liked it because I was posting the same opinion but trumad took the brunt of the assault with the more high profile post. :)

Curlin makes sense. Hard race for me to figure since we haven't seen this in a while, a closer with plenty of ability trying to win the Preakness. Most of the recent Derby/Preakness winners have been front runners or stalkers.

I'm sure Nafzger will want Street Sense much closer to the pace this time.

[trumad]

79. I also guaranteed Ohio State would crush the Gators

in the football NC. I think I'm about 2 out of 10 here on my guarnatees, LOL

I choose against Smarty that year because Belmont has a way of separating the greats from the so-so-maybe greats. I never felt that Smarty was a Secretariat/Spectacular Bid type-horse.

The same goes with Street Sense.

Now Barbaro--- maybe---and that's why it was a damn shame he broke down in the Preakness.

[Awsi Dooger]

80. Yeah, I was intent on ignoring the other ones

The Gators deserve to be crushed. Even when they win I'll find some way to remember it as a disgraceful loss.

I can't believe how difficult it is to get away from their recent success. I was on an Alaskan cruise two weeks ago and one family was wearing Gator national championship gear all week. I mumbled every time I walked past. Plus I saw several cars in Oahu with Gator license plates. And I walked into a watering hole on Kauai and the first thing I see is a big plaque touting the Gators. They lost my business immediately. I had ginger ale next door.

Last year I thought Barbaro would win the Triple Crown after he romped in the Derby. I posted that here. But I also had no idea Bernardini was so good. Barbaro would have been hard pressed to defeat Bernardini that day, even with perfect health and not breaking through the gate before the race.

I think Street Sense is a notch above most of the recent Derby/Preakness winners who flopped in the Belmont. I wouldn't be surprised if he lost the Preakness considering the way that race figures to unfold, but if he wins that one I'm confident he'll win the Belmont.

[aaronbees]

72. Calvin Borel and his guest/fiancee Lisa Funk at the State Dinner with the Queen and His Shrubness

Nice article on Borel: http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/sports/columns/article_1682295.php

JEFF MILLER
Register columnist
[e-mail] LOUISVILLE, Ky.He ended the week standing atop his dream, straddling one mountain of a horse. But Calvin Borel began the week by injuring himself. He suffered a black eye. Taking out the garbage. Taking out the garbage?

"He's dangerous on the ground," Borel's fiancée, Lisa Funk, said. "He's so accident-prone. He almost fell off the roof once."

Borel's dangerous on a horse, too. But in a good way, the way that doesn't end up in an emergency room. He expertly steered Street Sense to victory Saturday in the Kentucky Derby, coming back after being 19th out of 20 horses a half-mile into the race.

The achievement had the 40-year-old jockey pumping his fist before the finish line and later crying on national television, tears streaming from his good eye as well as his bad one.

** more at the link **

[two gun sid]

73. I feel sorry for Borel...

I can't think of two people I'd rather NOT have dinner with than Bush and QEII. Well, maybe Maggie Thatcher and Bobby Frankel. Either way, I'd rather take a beating than have to hob-nob with any of those bastards.