Preakness Stakes thread

[aaronbees]

Preakness on Saturday. Who's your pick? Thoughts on the race?

Past performances
http://www.drf.com/tc/preakness/2007/pps/contenders_pps.pdf

Preakness Website
http://www.preakness.com/

Haskin's latest thoughts on Tuesday
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38943

Steve Haskin's Preakness Report: Late Quay Decision a Smart One
by Steve Haskin
Date Posted: May 15, 2007
Last Updated: May 15, 2007

Circular Quay is now headed for the Preakness Stakes (gr. I). It wasn't so much a question of why the colt should run in the Preakness, but why shouldn’t he run? He’s obviously sound, fit, and ready, and this is the perfect spot for him.

He actually seems better suited for the Preakness than he would going the Peter Pan (gr. II) and Belmont Stakes (gr. I) route. He’s a small, agile colt who drops way out of it, and could very likely be more suited to a tighter-turn track than a sweeping, galloping track like Belmont, which normally is not very kind to horses who come from the clouds. And Pimlico’s reputation of being a speed-favoring track is a fallacy. In the past 15 years, Afleet Alex, Point Given, Red Bullet, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Timber Country, Prairie Bayou, and Pine Bluff all came from well off the pace to win the Preakness. During that time, only Louis Quatorze won by leading every step of the way.

Also, that big turn at Belmont can be a killer on a horse who has to make up 10 to 15 lengths on it, especially if he’s hung on the outside. Those kinds of horses often make their big run on the turn, look as if they’re going to run by everyone, but become rubber-legged by the three-sixteenths pole, having expended so much energy getting to that point.

There are numerous other reasons why a decision to run Circular Quay in the Preakness is a smart one, starting with the fact that with the eight-week layoff now out of the way, the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) should serve as an excellent prep for the Preakness. It’s not as if he were under pressure the whole way and then had to come back in two weeks. This little guy has his time and place for running, and he doesn’t take a great deal out of himself in his races. He also has a great mind and doesn’t get upset or excited over anything.

** rest at link **

Street Sense breezed five furlongs in 1:00 Tuesday morning. He's my pick - with Curlin and Circular Quay rounding out the tri.

[aaronbees]

1. Post positions and several contenders arrive

Video footage of Curlin, Flying First Class and Hard Spun coming to Old Hilltop
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2007/May/16/Several-Preakness-contenders-arrive.aspx


And the post positions:
1 Mint Slewlep 30-1 Slew City Slew Robert Bailes Alan Garcia
2 Xchanger 15-1 Exchange Rate Mark Shuman Ramon Dominguez
3 Circular Quay 8-1 Thunder Gulch Todd Pletcher John Velazquez
4 Curlin 7-2 Smart Strike Steve Asmussen Robby Albarado
5 King of the Roxy 12-1 Littleexpectations Todd Pletcher Garrett Gomez
6 Flying First Class 20-1 Perfect Mandate D. Wayne Lukas Mark Guidry
7 Hard Spun 5-2 Danzig Larry Jones Mario Pino
8 Street Sense 7-5 Street Cry Carl Nafzger Calvin Borel
9 CP West 20-1 Came Home Nick Zito Edgar Prado

[Awsi Dooger]

2. I agree with Haskin's analysis of Circular Quay

Made no sense to keep him out. Pletcher is conservative but that would have been obscene.

You've got a talented colt who figures to move forward off his first race in nearly two months. Plus there's plenty of speed up front for an honest pace, and a large enough field with 9 horses.

In the Belmont you almost always get a small field and a dawdling pace since everyone is so wary of the only 12 furlong race they'll probably ever run. Stretch runners stop or never show up at all. I guess Victory Gallup was the recent exception. That was a great effort to run down Real Quiet. In 2004 Birdstone came from well out of it but that was primarily Smarty Jones stopping with a 27+ final quarter.

I think it's a fascinating dilemma for Street Sense. Does he respect the speed-oriented track and stay closer to Hard Spun and Curlin, or does he run the same race as the Derby and hang back with Circular Quay?

[Justpat]

3. .

My picks as of this moment:
Hard Spun
Street Sense
King of the Roxy


subject to change up until the last minute when I see them in the paddock.

[aaronbees]

4. Fantastic Preakness montage video

Starts off with one of the greatest races ever, the Sunday Silence/Easy Goer duel .... still amazing to see Afleet Alex's run as well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94tV8hXziGc

[jakefrep]

5. I'll take Circular Quay

He'll likely get a better trip in the Preakness than he did at Churchill, and Street Sense may not get as good a trip as he did in Louisville.

[two gun sid]

6. Hard Spun - Curlin exacta box....

just to go against the favorite.

[THUNDER HANDS]

7. I have Street Sense, Hard Spun and King of the Roxy in an exacta box

I have no idea what I'd win by betting that way, but that's what I'm going with.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. I'll take Street Sense, Hard Spun, Circular Quay

The top two were far clear in the Derby so I don't want to get cute and pretend there wasn't a reason for it. The race probably sets up better for Hard Spun to turn the tables but Street Sense may be special enough to overcome that.

Circular Quay is talented, figures to improve off the layoff, and his race wasn't bad at Churchill.

Admittedly, my record picking the Preakness is pathetic. I'd hate to see the bottom line.

[jakefrep]

9. Was anybody else watching ESPN's coverage?

Is it my imagination, or was Hammerin' Hank Goldberg slurring his speech? He didn't sound well.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Amazing race but I feel really deflated

In the Breeders Cup, Street Sense seemed like a Triple Crown caliber horse so I've rooted for him ever since.

Wow, that overhead shot was revealing again. Street Sense roared past Curlin to take about a length and a half lead in mid stretch. I can't remember a late reversal like that in a major race after a top horse took the lead.

More credit to the Triple Crown winners. Now a minimum gap of 30 years from Affirmed.

[Justpat]

11. Me too.

Of all the Derby winners from the past several years, I had the most hope for
this outfit to win the whole thing.

I was screaming like a wild woman for the wire the last sixteenth of a mile.

Damn.

[aaronbees]

12. I feel a bit deflated too...

..they'll break your heart every time.

But it was a breathtaking race, of that there's no doubt. I feel bad for Helen Pitts, though, who trained Curlin before Assmussen got him. Curlin showed some real heat and tenacity, as did Street Sense. These are two super colts.

Edited to add: nice to see two Cajun boys get in the winner's circle for the Derby and Preakness. :)

[two gun sid]

16. I really enjoyed the race...

and Street Sense is a better horse than I thought he was. Maybe he lost his concentration a little bit when he got the lead or maybe Calvin stopped riding a little bit. No matter what happened, Street Sense has nothing to be ashamed of. He's a tough horse. Nafzger will probably plan his campaign to get him primed for the BC Classic.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Street Sense will not run in the Belmont

According to the Preakness article on the DRF site. It had a brief mention that Nafzger said Street Sense won't run. Curlin's trainer was quoted that he will consider the Belmont.

Somehow I'm not really surprised. That's why I decided to check the DRF article, a hunch that Street Sense wouldn't run. Bernardini skipped the Belmont last year also.

It doesn't sound right, but the rivalries require the same horse to have won both the Derby and Preakness. Otherwise the Belmont is too unusual and daunting and too much potential for one or more of the principals to skip it, if the Triple Crown isn't at stake. You've got to give the runnerup horses credit for challenging the Belmont so often. Racing history would be dramatically different if Derby/Preakness challengers like Arts and Letters and Bet Twice and Victory Gallop and Easy Goer, etc. had skipped the Belmont.

[aaronbees]

15. I can understand not taking Street Sense to the Belmont....

as much as I'd like to see him there. He's had three pretty grueling races in, what, five or so weeks? Plus the scorcher in the Tampa Bay Derby. Bring him back for the Jim Dandy and Travers and, hey, the Super Derby so I can see him! Or a couple races against the elders - would love to see him take a run at Invasor. Maybe not having a shot at the Triple Crown will mean he comes back next year, who knows.

I bet Curlin goes to the Belmont - he's got the body for that track and I think he'd win handily unless Rags to Riches shows up. She could give him a test at least. With seven different horses in two Triple Crown races so far, Pletcher failed to hit the top three - amazing.

Hard Spun's going to make a great mile to a 1 1/8 horse once he gets a little older - heard elsewhere he only just turned three years old.

After looking at the race again a few times, I think Street Sense has a tendency to loaf a bit on the lead - may have contributed today to his loss, maybe not. Can't fault Borel's ride, though, which showed a ton of confidence in his horse.

Two beautiful races takes the sting out of no TC winner, at least to me.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. I was looking forward to seeing a Triple Crown winner in the Jim Dandy

I thought there was a big chance for that. This year I'll probably be at Saratoga after missing last year. I was envisioning the coverage for weeks, and the place jammed in anticipation, especially at the walking ring.

This one will sting for a long time for me. It's potentially the difference between Triple Crown immortality or just another second tier horse who the public will quickly forget. Oh well.

I agree, Curlin looks perfect for the Belmont. It would have been one of the most fascinating and anticipated Belmonts of all time if Street Sense had hung on narrowly today.

I just watched Curlin's previous races on YouTube. No doubt I had him underrated, since he ran his big Arkansas Derby while I was on vacation and not paying attention. There's been a big history of horses losing the Derby then coming back to win the Preakness and Belmont. Little Current, Hansel, Risen Star, Point Given and Afleet Alex, just to name some that come to mind immediately.

Someone made an interesting point on YouTube, that Borel should have hugged the rail inside Hard Spun coming off the final turn, preventing Curlin from seeing him. I was thinking the same thing every time I watched the replay. But they said on NBC that Borel didn't think the rail was the best part of the track.

[RL3AO]

14. I want a triple crown winner! Why did you have to break your leg Barbaro?

[two gun sid]

18. Huge crowd at the local track yesterday....

they all came early to see Street Sense then stuck around for the harness meet and Dollar Night.

They paraded a 12 year old claimer before the first race. He's been a crowd favorite for a couple of years. He finished 2nd after cutting the mile and got beat at the wire. Everyone in the place was screaming their heads off for him. "El Tigger!"

The encouraging thing was all the young people. They were everywhere. At the windows, in the beer line, getting popcorn and hot dogs. The announcer was walking around interviewing people in the crowd with a wireless mic and calling the races from the grandstand seats. He interviewed a bunch of 6 to 12 year olds before the 2nd race and then took them all down to the Winner's Circle for a picture with the winner.

Everybody was taking advantage of the $1 wagers and was boxing Exactas and Tri's and 10 cent Super's. It was fun as hell and I think Horse Racing is making a come back. At least here.

How did you enjoy Preakness Day?

[aaronbees]

21. That's encouraging to hear

I went down to the local sports bar and had myself a "trifecta basket" (oysters, fish and shrimp) washed down by some soda and watched the race with a bunch of folks who didn't much care about what happened in the Preakness. Thankfully, bar staff had the volume turned down on the NBC broadcast so missed their overdramatics. Probably should have taken myself on down to Louisiana Downs instead.

When I've been to LA Downs and Oaklawn in the past couple years I've noticed a lot of young folks at the track, which is a good sign. This sport's got a tough time maintaining its fan base but these young fans seemed knowledgeable and were having a great time. Thinking about yesterday's Preakness, that's the kind of thrilling race that could really turn someone on to horse racing, even as heartbreaking as the result was in some ways.

Love the pic of your horse! What's next for him?

Equidaily has the wire photo up from yesterday:



Damn, damn, damn.

[two gun sid]

24. She's in at Hazel Park tomorrow night...

I'm hoping she's good enuff.

[aaronbees]

26. Hope she runs well!

:headbang:

[two gun sid]

29. She finished 3rd. Got beat a length for 1st a short nose for 2nd...

in 1:57.3. I couldn't be happier. She has made 4 starts and is 1-1-2.

[aaronbees]

31. Fantastic!

Hope y'all have fun her! That's a pretty promising start (though honestly I don't really follow the pacers/trotters too much or understand it as well as the thoroughbreds ... will have to change that someday). :D

[two gun sid]

19. Nice story from ustrotting.com....

'Grey Gladiator' honored

Thousands of Standardbred racing fans said goodbye to "the people's horse," Admirals Express, in a lively retirement ceremony, Saturday night at Mohawk.

It was a fitting tribute to the "Grey Gladiator," so dubbed for his nearly white coat and intense competitive spirit.

The 11-year-old was retired from racing in January with a remarkable record of 76 wins, 47 seconds, 38 thirds and earnings of $ 1,649,900 from 293 starts.

But it was his never-say-die racing attitude that caught the fans' fancy and the reason why the line-up to get a picture with the Michigan-bred started at 4:30 p.m., one hour before the scheduled 5:30 p.m. start.

http://www.ustrotting.com/absolutenm/anmviewer.asp?a=21446&z=1

[bread_and_roses]

22. That is a good story, Sid, thanks

I was disappointed that there was no photo, though.

[two gun sid]

25. My friend, ask and you shall receive:

And my favorite of Admiral's Express in retirement at his new home:


He's been a great horse and a great ambassador for Michigan Harness Horses and MI Breds.

[two gun sid]

20. A picture of my horse from the local paper.

I have been waiting for a 8x10 copy but the paper said it could be 6 weeks before I get it.

[bread_and_roses]

23. Nice! Thanks for posting it.. (n/t)

[Justpat]

27. Sid, that is a great pic!

Thanks for putting it up here.


:hi:

[two gun sid]

30. I love to show her off....

Thanks for letting me.

Someday, we'll all meet for breakfast at the track and look through YOUR scrapbooks.

[Justpat]

34. OK.

How about Saratoga?

[two gun sid]

35. I can't but, maybe the others can....

The Spa's meet is right at our busiest part of the season with the fairs.

I guess I'll have to wait for a BC at Belmont or some cold wintery day at Aqueduct. You have no idea how much I would love to meet all youse guys. You are all wonderful friends. When the horses are just kickin' my ass I know I can come here at get a shot of fun.

Horse people have to be upbeat. If we weren't, the lows would kill us.

[Justpat]

36. A little filly I bred and own half of now

won the second today at Thistledown.

She is so tiny and really couldn't compete here, but she won by seven.

She will think she is a monster now.

[two gun sid]

37. Great! She should feel like a monster....

A lot of horse never win and most winners don't draw off by 7.

Thistledown? She's practically my neighbor.

[Justpat]

38. It will do a lot for her head.

She was a juvenile delinquent when she was two, but I think she is growing up a bit now.
This win will help her a lot.

It was a cheap claimer, but I was still very happy for the little thing.

[two gun sid]

40. Those platers try just as hard as the Gr. I horses....

some of my favorite performers have been claimers.

I see that's the girl who hated the gate. Looks like she is learning. I'll be rooting for her to keep moving forward.

[Awsi Dooger]

33. That is a fantastic picture

Wow, she looks determined!

[Awsi Dooger]

28. Nafzger opens door somewhat to Street Sense running in Belmont

This from tonight's DRF article. Curlin and Hard Spun are definite:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/85117.html

"Street Sense, who lost by a head to Curlin, was initially ruled out of the Belmont right after the Preakness by Nafzger. But by Monday, he left the door open a crack.

"Right now, I'd say I don't think we're going to run in the Belmont, but there's a couple of factors that have come up, so we're going to put that decision off for a week," Nafzger said.

Nafzger said he had spoken to owner Jim Tafel on Sunday, and would do so again at mid-week.

"What we have to decide is what we want to do with him the rest of the year, because what we do regarding the Belmont will determine what we do the rest of the year," Nafzger said. "The main factor is, how did he bounce out of the Preakness? That will take a week."

Nafzger and his wife, Wanda, drove to Baltimore from Louisville. En route home, they stopped in West Virginia on Sunday for a two-day vacation at a resort before returning to Churchill Downs, where trainer Ian Wilkes, his former assistant, was monitoring Street Sense.

"Ian said he came back awful good," Nafzger said.

As for the Preakness, Nafzger said he was disappointed that Street Sense seemed to "lose his intensity" when he hit the front under jockey Calvin Borel.

"That's something we've got to look at, how to alleviate it," Nafzger said. "We've got to push on the button a little later."

[aaronbees]

32. Hope the big three boys go in the Belmont ....

Along with Rags to Riches and maybe Nobiz.

[aaronbees]

39. Some cool John Henry vids...

Was cruising the Youtube(s) and look what I found:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0-a7eXa7EQ - John Henry in the paddock
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O81j1R4b6VY - part II of that paddock scene
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSISQou2aBA - JH in the '81 Gold Cup
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT0PivA8zHw - JH in the inaugural Arlington Million
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXIhVl8J8-E - JH in the '82 Santa Anita Handicap

Always been hard to find his races online, so I was quite overjoyed to see these posted.

[jakefrep]

41. Cockney Rebel completes Guineas double

Cockney Rebel won a hard-fought edition of the BoyleSports Irish 2000 Guineas today at The Curragh:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/85270.html

Next up will be the St. James' Palace at Royal Ascot.

[two gun sid]

42. Finsceal Beo Completes Her Own Guineas Double

From The Bloodhorse:
Finsceal Beo held off the late challenge of 66-1 outsider Dimenticata to record a Classic double in the Boylesports Irish One Thousand Guineas (Ire-I) at the Curragh on Sunday.

The Jim Bolger trainee is just the second filly to land the Stan James One Thousand Guineas (Eng-I)-Irish Guineas double. In 2004, Attraction became the first filly to accomplish this feat.

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=39114

You gotta love those red-haired Irish girls!

[aaronbees]

43. Corinthian wins the Met Mile

Competitive race and great field. I was rooting for Lawyer Ron to get up for the win but he finished an excellent 3rd. Political Force 2nd, Sun King 4th.

Some nice racing today: Lone Star Handicap, Gamely, and Shoemaker BC Mile. Sweetnorthernsaint and Bob and John, two colts from the Triple Crown trail last year, running at Lone Star.

[bread_and_roses]

44. I have a soft spot for the crazy Corinthian

and always glad when he does well. I do like LR also - such a handsome fellow! - and glad he got a piece.

[aaronbees]

45. "The old man, the Tin Man, wins!"

Yep, Corintian's starting to grow on me too, Kenzee ... talented headcase but he put in a great run today. LR sure knows how to rate nicely now that Edgar Prado's on him.

And The Tin Man - all of 9 years old - just scored coming from just off the pace in the Shoemaker Mile. The call from Vic Stauffer: "The old man, the Tin Man, wins!"

Bob and John sure loves the slop - won by a long neck over the Saint.

[two gun sid]

46. YESSS! I love that old hoss.

[aaronbees]

47. We should find out this morning about Street Sense and the Belmont

I think he goes. Press conference at Churchill Downs, 10:30 am EST.

[aaronbees]

48. Street Sense a no go in the Belmont - will aim for Travers, BC Classic

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=39154

[bread_and_roses]

49. I'm disappointed...

...but not surprised. I wanted Curlin to win the Preakness, but I had a lot more admiration for SS after it. Just the buzz around a re-match would alone have been exciting, not to mention the possiblilities of the race. Ah, well.