Boxing: February 22 - 23, 2008

[H2O Man]

(All bouts subject to change)

Friday, February 22 - at Hollywood, Florida (ESPN2) -
10 rounds, welterweights: Richard Gutierrez (21-1, 13 KOs)
vs. Miguel Vazquez (20-1, 9 KOs); 10 rounds, junior
lightweights: Johnnie Edwards (13-0, 7 KOs) vs.
Yuriorkis Gamboa (8-0, 7 KOs).

Saturday, February 23 - at New York (HBO) - 12 rounds,
IBF heavyweight title: Wladimir Klitschko (49-3, 44 KOs)
vs. Sultan Ibragimov (22-0-1, 17 KOs); 12 rounds,
middleweights: Joe Greene (17-0, 12 KOs) vs.
Francisco Antonio Mora (52-12, 35 KOs); 10 rounds,
middleweights: John Duddy (23-0, 17 KOs) vs. Walid
Smichet (17-3-1, 13 KOs); 8 rounds, middleweights:
Peter Quillin (16-0, 13 KOs) vs. Thomas Brown
(11-3-1, 7 KOs); 10 rounds, cruiserweights: Johnathon
Banks (18-0, 13 KOs) vs. Imamu Mayfield (25-8-2, 18 KOs).

The ESPN FNF card looks interesting. The first fight will likely be more exciting, in terms of the potential for a knockout, while the main event will be a chess match. It's a good card, and helps these young contenders to be seen by the boxing fans, and then showcases a couple solid contenders. Thank you, ESPN.

The HBO card is important. Everyone wants to see John Duddy step up. I think maybe the idea is to have him and Joe Greene both look good, then meet each other in the late spring or early summer. Duddy is an exciting fighter, who has the natural defensive skills of Jerry Quarry -- once he gets hit, the guy resorts to slugging. He is exciting, and a fan-favorite.

The main event appears one-sided to me. Ibragimov is too small, has too weak of defensive skills, and seems unlikely to be able to hurt Klitschko. Of course, there can always be an upset -- and Wladimir is not unbeatable by any means. But I think he will stop Ibragimov by the end of the 8th round.

The real interest in the division is going to be coming at the end of the year. Klitschko has another defense coming up, which he will win in 8 or less. In the mean time, Nikolai Valuev has earned a rematch against Ruslan Chagaev, after a one-sided victory over Sergei Liakhovich.

The winner of the Chagaev vs Valuev fight will then likely face Klitschko. Each of the two would provide a tougher fight -- at least on paper -- than either of Wladimir's next two victims. I think that he is just too big for Chagaev, but Ruslan is fast, strong, very athletic, and has the ability to land blows that hurt a larger foe.

Perhaps more interesting could be the giant Valuev against Klitschko. Though he is able to relax against smaller foes, I think Wladimir would be anxious against Valuev. And when he is nervous, Klitschko tires fast, and is hurt by punches he could otherwise shake off.

It will be good to see the heavyweight mess get cleared up. I respect Klitschko and Valuev, who are both willing to fight any other heavyweight in their effort to become the undisputed champion. In 2009, one of the two will be fighting a matured Samuel Peter, and then there will be one champion.

[Kingofalldems]

1. Gotta see the HBO card

Looks great. If Duddy wins is there a Pavlik in his future?

[H2O Man]

2. That might be.

I think it would be a big money fight. Boxing fans would love it. That would be a great fight for Madison Square Garden.

While I like both fighters, I think that it would be a one-sided fight after two or three rounds. John doesn't keep his hands up, forgets to use upper body movement, and stands straight in front of his opponent after he has been hit hard. Those are three mistakes that would make a Pavlik fight very hard for him.

Of course, Duddy is capable of winning. If he hurt Kelly like Taylor did in the first fight, he would not let him off the hook. Still, he might do well to let Pavlik move up in weight, which he will almost certainly do in a year, leaving the middleweight division open for Duddy.

[H2O Man]

3. Kelly Pavlik's plans

are to unite the middleweight "titles." He is, of course, the only middleweight champion, but wants to unify the paper titles. I think that's a good goal.

His people are saying he will have one "easy" fight in the late spring. They are looking to match him against John Duddy, if Duddy wins his next fight.

It looks like boxing will continue to provide fight fans with some really good matches in 2008.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

4. I read that Wlad is taking a pay cut for this fight

Supposedly, he's offering a 50/50 split of the purse with Ibragimov, the lesser known, lesser-of-a-drawing-card fighter. It's supposedly because he's anxious to unite the Heavyweight belts in the division. I agree that Wlad is too tall and too strong for Ibragimov and has a good shot at ending it early. But I think that Wlad just might be vulnerable if someone can get him into the late rounds. Sultan is supposedly coming into the ring in the best shape of his career (at 219, it's just about the lightest he's ever weighed). Ibragimov has never been knocked out or even defeated. I think a fighter who has never tasted defeat can be dangerous to someone like Klitschko (although clearly Ibragimov hasn't faced as tough a competition as Wlad in his career). I think Ibragimov, a lefty, needs to circle to his right to stay away from that thunderous right hand of Klitschko's, although he will be eating that great jab. It seems that Wlad has a tendency to hold his hands away from his body (especially his left) and out slightly in front of him in order to be able to deliver a quicker jab that travels a shorter distance to his opponent. He doesn't keep his hands close against his face or body like some other fighters. He might be susceptible to a right uppercut from a lefty in that case, if Ibragimov can close the distance against that hard and quick jab. Both fighters have faced a common opponent in Ray Austin but Wlad did the better job against him, while Ibragimov fought him to a tough draw, marking the first time he didn't win a fight (common opponent comparisons I know are not always very revelatory in many cases).

Do you think there's any chance that Klitschko will face the winner of the Maskaev/Peter fight next? Or is he going to face the winner of Valuev/Chagaev? I think Chagaev is a pretty good fighter and might give Klitschko some problems, maybe more than anyone in the Heavyweight division at present. I'd also like to see Peter (if he beats Maskaev) get another shot at Wlad.

[H2O Man]

5. Sultan

has done good against some "big" opponents, but there are a couple of things that suggest he will be in for a tough fight. His July 2006 draw with Ray Austin, in which both men hit the canvas, was a pretty disappointing performance. On one hand, it can be hard to look good against Austin; on the other hand, in Ray's next fight, Klitschko looked good in TKOing him in 2 rounds. (Attila Levin also TKOed Ray)

Since decisioning Peter, Klitschko has fought four times; three were against easy competition. Only Calvin Brock posed any threat. Sultan has better side-to-side movement, and ability to avoid punches than Brock. But he also was hurt by Evander Holyfield.

If Sultan can avoid getting hit, and can bring Slitschko into the late rounds, he has a chance of upsetting him. But I think he'll have a hard time hurting Wladimir.

If Klitschko wins, he will defend against a mandatory challenger, Alexander Povetkin, who TKOed Chris Byrd and decisioned Eddie Chambers in a mini-tournament. After he TKOs Povetkin, he is apparently going to fight the winner of Valuev vs Chagaev. I consider either of those two as a serious challenge to Klirschko.

Chagaev isn't a big guy, but is smart, athletic, and hits very hard. (I'll see if I have a photo I tok of him last June at the Hall of Fame. Nice guy.) And with Valuev, it would be interesting to see Klitschko have to thow punches at a larger target. His "plane of power" is at shoulder height, or just below. It's not a big range -- other than those long arms! But he isn't a guy who can hurt an opponent anywhere he hits them. That's why he has Manny S, to help him bring shorter opponents into that range of power with that jab. Valuev takes that away; plus with his size, he could tire Klitschko, who tires rapidly when he isn't relaxed.

I'll be surprised if the Peter vs Maskaev fight comes off. The guy is scared to death of Samuel. Although the sizes are different, it reminds me of Floyd Patterson and Sonny Liston. If they fight, it will seem even closer to Patterson vs Liston.

Klitschko and Peter will, unless there's an upset, fight in MSG for the unified, real heavyweight title in early 2009. Klirschko's people want Peter to have long gaps between fights. He isn't sharp when he doesn't fight. He needs a few easy tune-ups to stay sharp. At this point, I see their rematch as an even call.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

6. Wow, Teddy Atlas thinks Ibragimov can beat Klitschko

Apparently, he thinks that Ibragimov can be deceptively fast, mobile, and smart enough to know how to beat Wlad. I watched a replay of the Klitschko/Williamson fight today on ESPN and I again noticed how Wlad sometimes leans in and often has a lot of separation of his left hand from his body. Sometimes he just hangs it out there. I don't know if there's something there that can be exploited but maybe a right uppercut could work (if the opponent can get close enough). I really respect Teddy Atlas but I just wonder if he's gone out on a pretty slim limb here.

On the other hand, Dan Raphael who is ESPN's supposed fight guru thinks that Klitschko will win. I don't know if you follow Dan Raphael's fight coverage of big fights, but his scorecards are usually wrong, quite wrong. Even when Raphael watches the same fights that the judges watch (Raphael does online round-by-round coverage of big PPV fights for those who can't afford to buy them) he tends to shade his scoring for the favorite and I often just have to shake my head at his scoring. He's far less accurate than Harold Lederman in my opinion.

Maybe Teddy Atlas waited to see how Raphael predicts the fight and, knowing how wrong he usually is, went with the other guy.

[H2O Man]

7. Teddy surprised me

with that. It was interesting, because before the FNF, my son and I watch ESPN Classic, which played Klitschko's October 2004 fight against DeVarryl Williamson. In a fight where he was decked and cut in the 4th, and shaken in the fifth, Klitschko was given a TD-5 after a butt ended the fight.

I do not understand why anyone would circle to their left against Klitschko. It moves you into his right. Thus, his jab-right is likely to land. You have to circle too far away to avoid it, and waste energy. Plus he cuts the ring off well in that direction.

Circle to your right -- his left -- and he throws a looping jab or a hook. He does shift to shorten the physical distance, but he is not graceful. That allows time to go under the left, hit him with two shots, and either clinch or move away quickly. I'm sure that is the flaw Teddy sees, and one of Teddy's greatest strengths is his ability to pick out the flaw in a fighter's style.

If he could beat Klitschko, it would be good for boxing. I'd like to see it.

Dan Raphael seems like a really nice guy, who loves the sweet science. I enjoy listening to him. I also agree with you 100% about his knowledge and accuracy in reporting. One of the things that is missing from the sport today is great boxing writers. There are actually better ones on the internet now, than in the boxing magazines and major newspapers. That hurts the sport.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

8. Maybe you should become a boxing writer

unless you already are one. You have a lot of knowledge of the sport. You write well, as I've noticed from your posts in general at DU. You also usually provide concrete reasons for your opinions.

I agree with you that the level of knowledge of the sport of boxing among the bloggers, TV commentators, and journalists today is less perceptive and insightful than it used to be. I don't often see the unvarnished critical assessment of so-called favorites that Teddy Atlas, for example, dares to bring out. I'm not sure if it's a question of dedication to the sport on the part of writers or the fact that fewer and fewer of the boxing writers actually hang out at the gym, talk to fighters and trainers on a regular basis, and see a lot of fights in person to actually understand what's going on in the ring during a fight. Maybe on the part of some, it has to do with the fighter's affiliation to ESPN, HBO, or Showtime as a regular card fighter that prevents a certain amount of candor. But even Burt Sugar, who I respect as someone with agreat knowledge of boxing history has very weird and quirky scorecards. I've seen some very bizarre scoring on his part as well (sometimes for big fights, he puts his round-by-round score online). So I don't know what the reason might be. I know that boxing can be subjective and maybe my memory of the old days and the quality of the journalists of yore is faulty.

[Stephist]

9. The Heavyweights Just Suck .

The heavyweight devision is such a disgrace. That was a painful boxing match. Coming after the replay of two top level guys at a smaller weight may have made it seem worse than it really was...no it was really that bad.

[H2O Man]

10. It was bad.

Neither fighter deserved to "win." Neither deserved to be paid.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

13. It was a weird fight

I agree that it was tough to watch. I think the match-up itself was of a kind that didn't make for much excitement. Klitschko is a big guy but he doesn't like to mix it up and loves to create distance with that great jab. Ibragimov is a "cute" fighter who doesn't force the action that much and prefers to use his wits, mobility, and counterpunching. And he was trying to stay away from that right hand even though Klitschko didn't often pull the trigger. I think the height difference wasn't that big a factor. A short brawler, like a Marciano would have come forward. Every time Klitschko stuck out that left hand, which he likes to do anyway but made an entire fight out of that tactic, a brawling fighter like a Marciano would have moved to his right and would have been hitting Klitschko's left shoulder and elbow, basically anything he could hit. Twelve rounds of having his shoulder and elbow pounded on I think would have discouraged Klitschko from using that tactic. Of course Marciano was a righty and had a powerful right hand. Unfortunately, it didn't look like Ibragimov had a very good right hook. I think a right hook to Klitschko's arm, head and body following the jab would have been Ibragimov's best punch in that fight but he didn't seem to use it much, preferring to use that right jab the whole fight, which wasn't working too well. Ibragimov just didn't seem to be willing to go all out and try different things and adjust. Maybe he isn't capable of that, however.

[H2O Man]

11. Duddy won

by split decision (one judge had it a draw). He suffered an ugly gash, and will not be able to fight Pavlik in the late spring. However, he may still get his opportunity, as Kelly Pavlik plans to fight three more times this year.

When was the last time we had such an active champion? Thank you, Kelly Pavlik.

I thought that the Pavlik vs Taylor fight was close. One of the judges was clearly not watching the same fight as I was. Still, the clips of Duddy's fight (including being able to watch him while Jim L was talking during the breaks in the Pavlik film, and the post-fight highlights), it is obvious that John has limited defensive skills. It should be an interesting, brutal fight that lasts no longer than 8 rounds. Taylor showed that the best tactic for fighting Pavlik is a body attack; Duddy, despite his lack of defense, throws an extremely hard hook to the ribs.

[Kingofalldems]

12. If the guy Duddy fought cut him that badly

he has no chance against Pavlik. BTW, I honestly believe Klitschko hurt his right hand--the only explanation I can think as to why he Willy Pep-ed the entire fight.

[Stephist]

14. A Rules Question

Was what Wlad Klitschko doing by knocking down Ibragimov's jab illegal?

[H2O Man]

15. Good point.

Yes, the referee should have given him a warning for that. It is against the rules to use your hands and arms to do anything to your opponent other than punch him. The obvious example was when the ref told Klitschko to quit pushing the back of Sultan's neck down. You can't do that. You aren't supposed to push the guy.

It is legal to punch the opponent's hand/arm, knocking it out of the way for a second punch in a combination. But that is distinct from what Wladimir was doing.