Derby Hopefuls Face Do or Die Weekend

[two gun sid]

From The Bloodhorse:
With the final Derby preps approaching, there is no more room for error. It’s time to earn your way into the Run for the Roses or pack up and go home. The three graded stakes this weekend – the grade I Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial and grade II Illinois Derby – offer intriguing plot lines that will make or break aspiring Derby hopefuls.

Those plot lines include some juicy questions:

Can last year’s champion 2-year-old War Pass rebound in the Wood Memorial following a dreadful performance at odds of 1-20 in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III)?

Will War Pass be vulnerable once again with the addition of Inner Light to help set it up for stablemate Court Vision?

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44374

Did anyone see that Andy Beyer gave Big Brown a 106 speed figure for the Florida Derby then revised it this week to a 122? I don't know folks, I'm not convinced it was that fast of a race. Big Brown is the most impressive 3YO I've seen this year but, he also has some things, at least in my mind, going against him.

He's inexperienced. How will he react to the mob at Churchill? Can he be rated? Or will he end up in a speed duel and get gobbled up in that long-assed stretch?

The 3rd Derby Future pool has him at 3-1. Man, I wouldn't bet Spectacular Bid with Jesus Christ himself up in a 20 horse field like the Derby at 3-1. Big Brown's the most talented 3YO this year but, that don't mean he's gonna win the Derby. I'd bet him at 5-1.

[aaronbees]

1. Hate to break it to you man....

but I think that Beyer thing about the 122 was an April Fool's joke. I saw it posted elsewhere. Pretty clever writing and had me fooled for a second. Okay, maybe a couple seconds. :P Big Brown's figure is still a 106 at the DRF, from what I can see. After Saturday, I can see him running a 122 though and wouldn't really bat an eye!

I agree on 5-1; anything less is a play against in a big field like that combined with Big Brown's experience. I hope War Pass redeems himself this weekend, but who the heck knows what was up in Tampa Bay and where he is now. I'd love to see him whoop the field Bellamy Road-style and send the bettors/prognosticators in a tizzy trying to figure that out. IMO, that would make Pryo nearly a lock for morning-line fave, depending on his Blue Grass run of course.

Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby.

[two gun sid]

2. I've been had!!!

I checked the WaPo today and didn't see anything about it but, shit, the way they do their figures I thought it might be possible.

I hope War Pass does well also but, I kind of doubt it. Mr. LaPenta has been talking and talking and talking about the TB Derby this week so I kinda wonder if he and Zito don't really know how to fix what's wrong. And that's not a knock on them. Horses can be damn confusing even to the most experienced horseperson. Nick Zito is a pro and if anyone can get a good performance out of the Champ, it's him.

I'm rooting for The Bad Cat in the SA Derby.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. 1:48 in the Everglades might have been worth 122

On the main track, not going to happen.

I find myself rooting for War Pass, then Pyro. Excellence at 2 should mean something. Frankly I get annoyed at the late arriving twinklers who think they can just show up for the playoffs. I realize Big Brown debuted at Saratoga, not this year, and overcame a 6 month injury-forced layoff, but it still irritates the hell out of me. If the gate stayed closed on Big Brown for about 5 seconds I wouldn't be bothered at all.

A month out and I have very little feel for this Derby. Last year Street Sense was all but guaranteed to run a big race and I got nearly 5/1 on him. This time I'll probably look at some head-to-head matchups only, unless the price on Big Brown is up there, 5/1 or 6/1 or so. As much as I'm not comfortable with where he's coming from, his efforts are like Curlin's last year, leading up to the Breeder's Cup, simply more demonstrative of freakish talent than any other horse.

[two gun sid]

6. ahh, remember the days when excellence at 2 did mean...

something?

I hope War Pass returns to form. After the TB Derby I thought,"Hell, he's OK. He just hit a little bump in the road on his way to Louisville. It can happen to the best of them." Now, I don't know. But nothing would please me more than to see Pyro and Big Brown neck and neck coming to the wire with War Pass closing on the outside on the First Saturday in May.

Good Luck on those Head to Head match-ups.

[Awsi Dooger]

37. Virtually every year in the '70s

By October at latest there would be a new phenom.

And that really boosted the sport, with talk of the emerging superstar over the winter. Anticipation of his schedule. The local national and local press would be all over it. Now, far too often we're inheriting late bloomers in March and April.

Last year was more like the old days, after Street Sense dominated the BC Juvenile, with legit hope he could Triple. And that contributed to making it the best recent TC series, along with the emergence or Curlin and Rags, of course.

[two gun sid]

41. You are right about generating a buzz for the next year...

we used to get a syndicated racing radio show here in my hometown. I don't remember what it was called but, we had a lot of local horseplayers so the local station played it in the morning between 3rd shift and 1st shift at our many automotive factories. I used to listen before I went to school. The 2YO crop was always a feature during the fall and winter months and it would get people stoked. I heard about the great Riva Ridge from that show and I followed his 3 YO year. That horse was what got me really interested in horse racing. My dad took me to the Casino Bar on the corner to watch the Derby and make a bet on Riva Ridge.

Everything has changed. They don't breed horses like they used to. They get 2 YO's that are super fast and dominate early, make a stud deal for 'em and that's the last you hear of them. We no longer have any locally owned radio stations and if you want to follow the ponies you better have Internet access. We still have a harness track and we have simulcasting, which is nice but, the factories are all closed. The horseplayers are either too old to make it to the track or dead and the Casino Bar is now called something else and has a patio with Tiki lights and you couldn't find a bookie if you tried.

* Editted Shamrock Bar to Casino Bar. The Shamrock was a couple of blocks away.

[Justpat]

4. Saturday will be a great day of racing here in NY.

I'll post the entries when they come out,

Saturday lineup:

Excelsior BC Handicap Gr. III, 200,000 1 1/8 on the dirt


Carter Handicap Grade I 300,000 7/8 three and up

Bay Short Grade III 150,000 7/8 three year olds

Wood Memorial three year olds

[two gun sid]

5. Wow, that is a good card...

out here in the midwest we've got the IL Derby at Hawthorne saturday.

7th (4:30)
Illinois Derby (G2)
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 Recapturetheglory 8-1
2 Instill 15-1
3 Z Humor 3-1
4 Atoned 4-1
5 Denis of Cork 2-1
6 Golden Spikes 5-1
7 Real Appeal 8-1

I'm boxing a Atoned/Z Humor exacta. It won't pay shit but, it's just for fun.

My friends out west are going to the SA Derby at Santa Anita.

6th (2:30)
Santa Anita Derby (G1)
1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $750,000

1 Yankee Bravo
2 Signature Move
3 Coast Guard
4 Bob Black Jack
5 Colonel John
6 On the Virg
7 Shore Do
8 El Gato Malo
9 Polonius
10 Meetingwithdestiny
11 Rosso Corsa

This one, I just don't have a pick. I like El Gato Malo so I'm rooting for him.

Anybody else want to make a prediction?

[Justpat]

7. Saturday at the Big A

Race 7 Bay Shore

1. Magical Forest C. Velasquez
2. Make the Point Eibar Coa
3. Gattopardo Julian Pimental
4. Laysh Laysh Laysh Mario Pino
5.Go Go Shoot Alan Garcia
6. Double Down Vinman Jeremy Rose
7. Jockey Ridge Edgar Prado
8. J BE K Garrett Gomez


Race 8 Excelsior Handicap
1. Malibu Moonshine Mario Pino
2. Magna Graduate Garrett Gomez
3. Nite Light Mike Luzzi
4. Angliana Alan Garcia
5. Temporary Saint C.C. Lopez
6. Naughty New Yorker Jean Luc Samyn
7. Evening Attire Edgar Prado


Dammit, I don't know how to get it to post with the jocks on the other side of the page. It keeps
coming out like this. I give up.
8. Mayan King Channing Hill
9. Wafi City C. Velasquez



Race 9 Wood Memorial 750,000 1/1/8
1. Texas Wildcatter Eibar Coa
2. Spurrier Stuart Elliott
3. Court Vision Garrett Gomez
4. First Commandment Mike Luzzi
5. War Pass C. Velasquez
6.Roman Emperor Jeremy Rose
7. Giant Moon Jorge Chavez
8. Tale of Ekati Edgar Prado
9. Inner LIght C.C. Lopez
10. Anak Nakal Alan Garcia

Race 10 Carter Handicap
1. Lord Snowden Jeremy Rose 115
2. King of the Roxy C. Velasquez 115
3.Stormin Normandy Rudy Rodriguez 115
4.City Attraction Mike Luzzi 115
5. Ryan's for Real Eibar Coa 114
6. Spring at Last Garrett Gomez 121
7. Not For Money Channing Hill 114
8. Premium Wine Alan Garcia 114
9. Bustin Stones Edgar Prado 116
10. Executive Fleet C.C. Lopez 114

[two gun sid]

8. The Excelsior looks great!

Damn, a lot of good older horses in there. I gotta pull for my boy Evening Attire. He's such a great old horse.

OB, I've been intrigued by Texas Wildcatter in the Wood. Have you seen him work?

[Justpat]

9. I haven't seen him at all.

I don't know if he has been up here all winter or just shipped up to run.
He didn't get beat far last time so if he improves a bit, he certainly belongs here.


The weights for the Carter are disappointing. The highweight is 121.
The rest of the field is in at 114 or 115.

[aaronbees]

10. Interesting interview with Penny Chenery

Folks at NYRA interviewed Chenery in advance of Saturday's Wood Memorial and asked her about Secretariat's loss there.

On today's Thoroughbred race horses: "I would be surprised if we see another Triple Crown winner."
On Secretariat: "I'm just terribly lucky he was born in our barn."

Interesting stuff.

http://www.nyra.com/Aqueduct/Broadcast/Podcast/PennyChenery.wav

[two gun sid]

11. Thanks for that...

When I was a kid a had a huge crush on Ms. Chenery. After I read Bill Nack's book and he told of the confrontation between her and Angle Light's owner just prior to the Derby I kind of lost my regard for her. As time has passed she has become a great senior statesperson for the sport. She used to come to Arlington and sign autographs prior to the running of the Secretariat Stakes on Million Day. I'm glad she's still out there talking about the Triple Crown.

[two gun sid]

12. Update: War Pass takes one on the chin

From Paul Moran at the races blog:
War Pass, the 6-5 morning line favorite, arrived in New York on Thursday afternoon at the end of a rough flight from Florida.

“We had to put three staples under his chin because he hit his head on the plane,” said Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito, who noted the cut on War Pass is simply superficial. “He looks great and he’s acting great.”

“I don’t know what the right word is with how you feel going into a race like this off a race like the Tampa Bay Derby,” Zito said. “You’re apprehensive, excited, happy, and cautious; I’m a fan, too, and I want to see a horse like War Pass run big. We know what works with him, so we’re going to do that.”

Court Vision, Inner Light and Tale of Ekati all arrived safely at Aqueduct Thursday afternoon and galloped over Aqueduct’s sloppy main track on Friday morning.

http://paulmoranattheraces.blogspot.com/2008/04/update-war-pass-takes-one-on-chin.html

**UPDATE On our Stable**
3YO Curly finished 2nd in a qualifier at Raceway in Toledo yesterday. He's good to go for a start on opening night. Go us!!!

[Justpat]

13. Isn't Curly the one you posted pics of when he was a foal?

When is opening night?

[two gun sid]

14. They open next weekend...

and I did post his baby pictures. I love that guy. He ain't much of a racehorse but, he's my kid. He and I have a real special relationship. He made 3 starts last year and then got hurt. We'll see how he goes as a 3YO.

[Justpat]

15. I remember his foal pictures.

Good luck next weekend.

[Justpat]

16. Tale of Ekati wins by a neck.

I'm happy for Barclay Tagg.

Warr Pass was moving terrible the last part of it.


Final time 1:52.35

Yikes, that is slow.

[two gun sid]

17. Good for Mr. Tagg....

I'm starting to like Pyro's win in LA a whole lot more.

[aaronbees]

18. At least War Pass put up a fight

He was wobbly down that lane but he almost gutted it out after his blazing opening fractions. He wants no part of 1 1/4 miles and I hope they stick to mile and 1 1/16 mile races with him. Nice win by Tale of Ekati (whom I left out of my Road to the Roses plays for today), but I'm not seeing a Derby winner in this field.

Denis of Cork just got spanked. Serves 'em right for skipping the Rebel.

Come on Colonel John, save my day!

[two gun sid]

19. Louie Roussel III and Recapturetheglory win the IL Derby...

Yeah, Mr. Roussel! He was Risen Star's trainer in 1988.

[aaronbees]

26. Cool ....

just looked at his PPs. Do you think this colt is Derby bound?

[two gun sid]

27. If he's got enogh Graded earnings he's going....

can't imagine him not being there.

[Justpat]

22. Yes, WP was game.

He gutted it out to the wire.


Agree that this was not a good Derby field.
They were going thirteen to the eight for the last three eighths.
No one was really running on at the end.

[Awsi Dooger]

38. War Pass looked wobbly all day

Even before the race he seemed thin and without much spark. The commentators were sensing it.

I wanted him to hold on and pull it out by a few lengths, if nothing else to perhaps boost the Derby price on Big Brown. Now that's gone. Even if Pyro is extremely impressive in the Blue Grass it won't make much of a difference in Big Brown's odds.

1:52 and change, I trust that was uphill.

[two gun sid]

20. Colonel John comes flying at the end to win SA Derby...

very impressive.

[aaronbees]

32. He's my official Derby pick

Barring anything crazy, I think he'll be the pick for me come post time. Class, stamina, speed, the pedigree and some big ol' heart (that's the Tiznow coming through). I love it!

[two gun sid]

33. That's a good pick....

what was the time, 1:48 and change? He's a nice horse and a direct descendant of Man O War.

[Awsi Dooger]

39. They came home fast in the SA Derby

I think it was 36+ for the final 3/8. The Wood horses still had another sixteenth at that point.

I told my dad to keep an eye on Colonel John in the white silks. At least a half dozen times during the race he said the horse had no chance. Heart, indeed.

[bread_and_roses]

40. Just watched all three races

And Col John was surely the most exciting run. And good luck with your horse!

[aaronbees]

21. Colonel John

Hot damn! What a race!

[Justpat]

23. Bustin Stones wins Carter in very game effort.

7/8 in 1:22.4


Really, really a game horse.

[two gun sid]

24. Bruce Levine had a pretty good day!

[aaronbees]

25. Darn, missed it

...and I wanted to see that race.

Zenyatta just won the Apple Blossom powerfully. She's a really cool filly. And huge! Brownie Points second, Ginger Punch third.

[two gun sid]

28. Ginger Punch was 3rd?

Did she look alright?

[aaronbees]

30. Set the pace, half in 47 and change

Got headed at the top of the stretch and hung on game for half the stretch. Zenyatta just swooped by them after being far back, maybe a dozen lengths.

[two gun sid]

31. OK. I was hoping she was alright...

she just got beat by better horses today.

[Justpat]

29. Bustin Stones is undefeated.

I think this was his sixth in a row.

[aaronbees]

34. Just caught a replay

That was impressive ... OB, what was the Aqueduct track like today? Was it tiring at all?

[Justpat]

35. We didn't go because we didn't have anything in.

The Wood was really slow.
But all the earlier races on the card were slow too. They had a maiden special weight
going 6 1/2 and it went in 1:20 and change. You can't go any slower than that.

We had lots of rain yesterday so they cancelled racing I believe trying to
keep the track in good shape for today. (That, and they only had 65 horses
on the whole card) So it was probably a bit heavy early, but it was warm
and sunny the whole day.

Bustin Stones was the only really fast race all day.

[aaronbees]

36. Tiago noses out the Oaklawn Handicap

Over Heatseeker in a great stetch duel. Smith/Shirreffs/Moss get the big two stakes today at Oaklawn ... nice Cali invasion there! They need to keep Tiago on the dirt; he's been spinning his wheels on the artificial tracks in Cali.

[two gun sid]

42. A Bold Statement

From Horserace Insider:
No More Confusion on Kentucky Derby Trail
Sunday, April 06, 2008

(CHICAGO, IL – April 7, 2008) At first blush, without thinking, a fan might conclude that this past weekend’s Triple Crown prep races merely confused the issue of which horse to bet come Kentucky Derby day.

But in the clarity of morning, when one’s mind is un-cobwebbed and you’re able to reflect on what happened, it’s obvious that only one of three or four horses should be first at the finish line on the first Saturday in May. All the rest, except for an inexplicable infusion of the Giacomo effect, will be running for second.


This year’s anticipated quorum is an ordinary assemblage of 3-year-olds, mostly slow in their races and routine in victory. Only a few horses are able to string back to back wins, and those that aren’t seem to unravel like yo-yos when they lose. Most are in and out of form, unable to affect a sense of superiority beyond the occasional scene stealer. The Grade 2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne supported this conclusion.

Recapturetheglory, in his first try at stakes competition, humiliated Denis of Cork, the undefeated colt that appeared in the Top 5 of most experts’ listings of leading 3-year-olds. Owned by Louie Roussel III and Ronnie Lemarque of Risen Star fame, the 15-1 colt covered the mile and an eighth of fast track in 1:49, leading a lazy field from flag fall to finish. Most handicappers expected the son of Cherokee Run to be merely a pacesetter. But he favored the glib feel of Hawthorne’s rail – a virtual glide path reminiscent of old Keeneland – and won by four lengths.

http://www.horseraceinsider.com/blog.php/Zasts-TrackWords/comments/no-more-confusion-on-kentucky-derby-trail/#comments