Boxing: Hopkins vs Calzaghe

[H2O Man]

On Saturday, April 19, HBO will be showing the Bernard Hopkins vs Joe Calzaghe championship fight. Coverage of the fight, which is being held at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, begins at 9:45 pm est. It should be an interesting fight.

The two appear fairly evenly matched. Hopkins is 6’ 1", and Calzaghe is 5’ 11.5". Hopkins has a 75" reach, which gives him a two inch advantage. Hopkins, who fought most of his career at middleweight, is now the light heavyweight champion; Calzaghe is the super middleweight champion. Hopkins is 43 years old, compared to 36 for Calzaghe.

Bernard is from the Philadephia school of boxing. He is an orthodox fighter, who ranks as one of the very best of his era. His record is 48-4-1, with 32 KOs. Calzaghe is from Newbridge, Wales. He is good enough to be undefeated in 44 fights, with 32 KOs. He is certain to enter the Boxing Hall of Fame, although he remains largely untested against America’s top fighters. This will be his third fight outside of his land, and his first in the USA.

Hopkins lost his pro debut; a May, 1993 fight with Roy Jones, Jr.; and two close decisions to Jermain Taylor in 2005. His big wins are over Ronald "Winky" Wright; Antonio Tarver; Oscar de la Hoya, and Felix Trinidad. He was the longest reigning middleweight champion.

Calzaghe’s biggest wins are over Mikkel Kessler and Jeff "Left Hook" Lacy. He also has impressive wins over Sakio Bika, Omar Sheika, and Chris Eubank. After beating Eubank for the title in 1997, he has put together 21 title defenses.

I like to look at the records of the people each man has been fighting. The site "Rec Boxing"allows us to look at the last six matches of each opponent. So, I decided to go back 18 fights for both Hopkins and Calzaghe. In each case, their opponents had won 98 of their last 108 fights, meaning both Hopkins and Calzaghe are fighting tough opposition.

Bernard tends to win by decision, with some late round TKOs. Calzaghe has been decisioning most of his toughest competition. Both men can go 12 hard rounds. Bernard had slowed down as a middleweight, but it appears that he was weakened from cutting too much weight. Calzaghe has the ability to have an enormous punch output in every round.

Both men are students of boxing history. Calzaghe talks about trying to pass Joe Louis’s record of 25 consecutive title defenses, and passing Rocky Marciano’s record of 49-0. (Boxing historians know that Rocky’s being undefeated is a myth; he lost several early fights, which his manager later "removed" from his record.) Bernard accomplished what his hero Sugar Ray Robinson tried but failed to do, by winning the light heavyweight title. He says that he will use some of the great Archie Moore’s tactics against Calzaghe.

Calzaghe knows that Hopkins has been defeated by two top fighters (Jones and Taylor) who were faster than him, and who could withstand Bernard’s pressure. Calzaghe has the speed, and does have some power. His problem is that he often throws flurries of ineffective punches, and can get into a pattern of moving straight forward and then straight back. He did spin Lacy, and used good side-to-side movement. He’ll need to do that with B-Hop. More, with Hopkins looking to counter inside Joe’s flurries, Calzaghe has to take a chance by setting down and being willing to throw the last punch(or punches) of the majority of their encounters. Combinations, combinations, then more combinations.

The danger in that, of course, is that unlike a Jeff Lacy of Mikkel Kessler, Bernard will be looking to punch inside Calzaghe’s combinations. More, he knows something that most of Calzaghe’s opponents forget: Joe takes a heck of a punch to the head. He’s been decked, but head shots aren’t where Bernard will be starting. Watch Hopkins attempt to lift his punches inside, right up under Joe’s ribs. If Calzaghe can move, he can frustrate Bernard. But if he is being bothered by Bernard’s billy goat butts (and shoulders and forearms!), watch those punches lifting up. Oscar found that out.

I think that it should be a close fight, and either man can win. On paper, Calzaghe has a slight edge. But Bernard is a tough old warrior, who has an edge to his personality that we can trace back to his being a thug in the alleys and then an inmate in prison. The man has come a long way since then, but that edge is still there. We hear it with some of his less attractive statements about "no white boy can beat me." Can he get inside Joe Calzaghe’s head? Not before the fight – won’t happen – but he might be able to inside the ring.

I’m curious if other DUers have any predictions?

Enjoy the fight!

[IndianaJones]

1. Is it on HBO or pay per view?

I like both fighters.

I'll take Calzaghe by decision.

[H2O Man]

2. Both fighters

have been among the very best of this era.

[IndianaJones]

10. 5 or 6 years ago Hopkins wins that fight.

I didn't like the way the HBO announcers questioned the low blow. The replay clearly looked on the cup, and Hopkins reaction looked genuine.

[H2O Man]

12. Yep.

It was one of many low blows. HBO needs to consider making some changes. Max is good in the studio, but weak at ringside.

Bernard showed his age. He had trouble with the pace. The younger version would have been able to win fairly easily.

[H2O Man]

3. The weigh-in

can be viewed live on HBO's boxing homepage at 5:30 pm est (in 25 minutes).

B-Hop likes to try to intimidate at the weigh-in. It won't work with this kid Calzaghe. Bernard needs to do that in the ring, from the 1st round on.

[H2O Man]

4. From "The Ring"

This is from "Ryan Out Loud," Jeff Ryan's column in The Ring. It's from a few months back (4-08), in an article, "Let's B-Hop Right To It":

"...It won't be the best bout of '08. In fact, it could be a stinker, for both champs are too cautious and fundamentally sound to engage in a brawl for the ages. And they'll likely be too sloppy, and maybe too dirty, to provide the kind of technical masterpiece a purist craves."

While I agree with him that there is a good chance the fight will be less than explosive for 12 solid rounds, I think that the last two sentences above contradict each other. Either they are so fundamentally sound ("master boxers") and will be too cautious, or they are sloppy, dirty fighters. The first is the description of a technical masterpiece the purist craves -- Ray Leonard vs Wilfred Benitez -- while the second description is something very different.

I thought more people would be interested in this fight.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. I tend to lose interest in older fighters

When Hopkins fought Jones in '93 I was extremely attentive, two talented young fighters, even though it wasn't considered a super fight like Jones/Toney a year later.

When someone like Hopkins reaches this age I'm more or less scouting for opportunity to bet against him. He'll hang on and find the wrong opponent and get his ass kicked. It's inevitable, just like when I bet Camacho heavily against Leonard. And Jones himself is on that list for me. I took Tarver against him in the third fight, and now that Jones has a couple of subsequent meaningless wins there's going to be a spot where he'll be over valued in the odds, against a younger, stronger, top notch fighter. Bye bye Roy.

But tonight you're paying a price against Hopkins, with Calzaghe roughly a 2/5 favorite in man-to-man terms. That's a burden. In picking the fight I'd favor Calzaghe but prioritizing value in betting terms it's got to exceed 2/5 likelihood and I'm not convinced Hopkins is vulnerable enough to give that type of price, not when the opponent is already 36 himself. Besides, I'm more comfortable betting against speed fighters who are trying to hang on too long, not a genuinely tough and resourceful fighter like Hopkins.

The odds on the fight going the distance are a tip off. It's a 1/3 chalk to go the route, an extremely lopsided number. You very seldom see odds in that range, or much higher. That means neither fighter is expected to get knocked out yet you're giving 2/5 on one of them winning. A much more favorable combination is a favorite when it's expected to be a short fight, i.e. the underdog has a suspect chin. When I think it's going the distance I like to look at the underdog, like Leonard vs. Hagler in '87.

Sorry for the betting focus but that's my background, although I'm not in Las Vegas currently. I don't think the correlation aspects are mentioned often enough in terms of sporting likelihood, certainly not by the mainstream media.

Should be an interesting fight. I'm scrambling to find a venue since I just realized this house doesn't get HBO. :)

[H2O Man]

6. I think it may be

the free pre-view weekend.

It's a good fight on paper. I think it should be one of the more interesting fights of the year. I do, of course, like guys who out-think and out-box the opposition. This could be a chess match.

Enjoy it.

[trumad]

7. Hopkins in 8

[H2O Man]

8. That would

be nice.

[trumad]

9. Wow Hopkins looked old

I mean really old. Stick a fork in him.

BTW: Lousy fight

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I missed it

Ended up playing cards.

Based on the reports and the scoring, it's just as well I didn't give 2/5 into a split decision.

Without seeing the fight, my instinct is Hopkins would have won, if a year or two younger. Sometimes that's all it takes. He's really been in some wars for an older fighter the past few years, high caliber opponents. Gotta give him credit for that.

[trumad]

13. He was punching like a wet noodle at the end there.

and thats an understatement.

[H2O Man]

14. He is old.

I thought it was a good fight. Bernard is 43. Not too many 43 year olds have competed at that level. (Calzaghe, of course, is also old.)

Calzaghe deserves credit for a close victory. But I think it is fair to say that a younger Bernard would have had an easy time decisioning Joe by a wide margin. In the rounds when B-Hop was not trying to conserve energy, he had no problem finding his target and avoiding being hit. Calzaghe is a windmill with slapping punches; my cousin (who won numerous amateur titles) said it is interesting to think how good Calzaghe would have been if he had an American trainer who could have taught him the correct way to punch. Even in this fight, had he thrown straight punches, he could have taken more rounds, and not have been hit by Bernard's harder punches.

I saw four times, including the knockdown, when Bernard knocked Joe off balance with a hard shot. A young Bernard would have been able to exploit those opportunities. An old Bernard couldn't.

Good win for Joe, opening the way for excitement in the super middleweight and light heavyweiht divisions.

[TSIAS]

15. Here's my card

I thought Calzaghe won the fight easily. With the exception of Rd1. he controlled the fight easily. I know that CompuBox isn't official, but Calzaghe did dominate the fight statistically and controlled much of the action. Hopkins failed in the same aspect that he did in hid two fights against Jermain Taylor. He simply wasn't active enough to win the rounds he needed to secure a decision. I am by no means a Calzaghe fan, but the HBO Compubox numbers did sway me in his direction.

I think Hopkins did very well against Antonio Tarver, bur he didn't do enough to beat Calzaghe tonight. But I will admit that many of the rounds were very close. I wouldn't have protested if Hopkins had prevailed by Decision. However, Calzaghe did land the majority of the punches and that counts for something in my book. 116-111 for Calzaghe, as I scored it in my book, may have been a bit wide. But I think, after Rd1, that Calzaghe controlled the pace of the fight.



Unofficial Scorecard

Round 1 10-8 Hopkins


Round 2 10-9 Hopkins / 20-17 Hopkins


Round 3 10-9 Calzaghe / 29-27 Hopkins


Round 4 10-9 Calzaghe / 38-37 Hopkins


Round 5 10-9 Calzaghe / 47-47


Round 6 10-9 Calzaghe / 57-56 Calzaghe


Round 7 10-9 Calzaghe / 67-65 Calzaghe


Round 8 10-9 Calzaghe / 77-74 Calzaghe


Round 9 10-9 Calzaghe / 87-83 Calzaghe


Round 10 10-9 Hopkins / 96-93 Calzaghe


Round 11 10-9 Calzaghe / 106-102 Calzaghe


Round 12 10-9 Calzaghe / 116-111 Calzaghe


Total 116-111 Calzaghe


Judge Adalaide Byrd 114-113 Hopkins


Judge Chuck Giampa 116-111 Calzaghe


Judge Ted Gimza 115-112 Calzaghe


Result Joe Calzaghe wins by Split Decision. (Wins Ring Magazine Light Heavyweight Title)

[H2O Man]

16. Interesting.

One thing that boxing fans know is that even the greatest fighters, who continue to compete at a high level when they are old, do not put out a top performance every time. Even more so than when they were on the top of their game, they have cycles: a good fight, and some "down" time. Bernard isn't able to do what he did with Tarver, and even Wright, every fight.

Your scoring seems to be pretty much what most people saw. Thanks for posting it.

[TSIAS]

17. I know it may not be popular

Bur Calzaghe landed most of the telling blows. While I am typically skeptical of CompuBox, Calzaghe did land most of the punches, Hopkins won two of the early rounds, and one with a knockdown, but Calzaghe took most of the middle and late rounds. 116-111 may seem a bit wide, but I contend that Calzaghe outworked Hopkins for 8 of the 12 rounds.

[H2O Man]

18. I agree with your scoring,

but I think Bernard landed the only significant power punches. I think Calzaghe set too fast a pace from round three on, and out-hustled the older foe. But I think that while Joe landed some clear and accurate punches, that they were not of sufficient force to be considered "telling." Rather, because they lacked any pop, the punches landed by Calzaghe were of a nature that Bernard did not think they were scoring points. It was a good win for Calzaghe, and it helps to define him as being better than his critics wanted to believe.

[IndianaJones]

19. I've heard that several ringside reporters, including the AP, had Hopkins winning the fight. nt.

[H2O Man]

20. I've spoken with

several people who thought B-Hop won.