I'm convinced we're going to get a great price in the Derby

[trumad]

Somewhere between 5 to 15 on the odds. I might average that and look for the closest Nag to the average... say around 9 or 10-----Then drop a Benjamin on a win ticket for a nice payday.

Pay off--- minus the upfront Benny--- = 9 more Bens.

Honey, we're going out for steak tonight!

On Edit: I have no idea who will win this years Derby but I can pretty much assure you it won't be a favorite.... I'm playing a number this year because quite frankly, I haven't a clue.

[Venceremos]

1. Agreed

Still trying to figure out my tri and super bets, any ideas? You heard War Pass is out?

[trumad]

4. Yep---War was my pick all along....

The Tri will be a mix of long shots, with a few favorites sprinkled in.

[Venceremos]

5. This year

is shaping up like the Giacomo year when they had that lottery sized super payout. If memory serves, Afleet Alex was the only favorite that came in. So I'm trying to figure out the "right" favorite to box.

[two gun sid]

2. I'll go out on a limb and say...

I'll take Cool Coal Man at 12-1 or better or Tomcito at 15-1 or better. Pyro is coming off a horrible finish in the Blue Grass, Colonel John has never seen dirt and Big Brown has 3 lifetime starts. The three best horses have good reasons to bet against them. It's gonna be interesting. We'll see how Tomcito does today. He's been working like a monster at Keeneland.

[two gun sid]

3. Forget that Tomcito bet...

he ain't gonna be in the Derby. Just finished out of the money in the Coolmore Lexington.

[Justpat]

7. Because he finished up the track on artificial surface

doesn't mean he won't do better on dirt at Churchill.

I'm not putting him on top, but I don't think I'll throw him out either.
I'm not sure he has the earnings though.

Maybe we should post the most recent list of the eligible starters
based on current earnings.

I keep coming back to Colonial John. I like his breeding - I think
he will be about the only one to transfer polytrack form to dirt.

[two gun sid]

8. I thought he had to finish in the money to have enough...

graded stakes earnings to make the Derby. I'll look around for the earnings list and see.

Hey, OB, Curly finished 2nd last week and 2nd last night. And I blame the driver for both his defeats. (Don't I sound just like some nightmare owner that doesn't know shit? LOL.) We'll get 'em next week, though. Our driver is actually very good but we just needed a little bit of racing luck. Curly actually had the lead at the 1/2. He ended up losing by 1/2 length at the wire. Red won last week and finished 6th last night beaten a total of 3 1/2. It was a tight race and she did good. I'm happy today.

[Justpat]

9. Curly has really turned out to be an honest racehorse.

That is all we can ask.

Congrats on the second.


Talkhouse came out of his race with a deep cut between the tendon and cannon bone on his
left front and he has a cut on the left rear also. The jock came by this morning and said
he got hit really hard at the half mile pole, so his third place finish was a game effort.

Racing returns to Belmont on April 30th and I can't wait.

[two gun sid]

10. Nothing serious I hope...

for me as a fan it is really cool to watch a horse like "The 'House". We heard about him as a baby and we have been able to watch him progress and go through all the ups and downs of his racing life. We have an emotional investment in him and it makes his races exciting. This sport is great and I wish more people would take the time to learn about it and enjoy it.

I'll be looking for him at Belmont.

[Justpat]

11. Here is his little brother.

His name is Ancient Sunlight - named after the title of Thom Hartmann's book: The Last Hours of
Ancient Sunlight.







I'm not too great with the camera yet. It was a birthday present from Mr. Broad.
I didn't mean to decapitate the rider.

[two gun sid]

12. Good name! Thom Hatmann's great and from MI...

He's a nice looker. I wasn't looking at the riders head but I was admiring his fancy boots.

After a TB goes through their breaking process (and I hate using the term 'breaking') how soon do you guys get them and start training them? Do you wait and let their knees close up? I know you don't work them for speed but I guess I really don't know how you guys do the babies.

Thanks for the pictures.

[Justpat]

13. Every youngster is different.

You never do any fast work with them until their knees are closed.
Some close up faster than others.

But some two year olds are early developers and those you have to
gone on with unless they tell you they need more time.

This guy was broke in Nov and came to Belmont April 2nd. He won't do any fast
work for quite a while. You can't tell from the picture, but he is really big -
already 16.1. And his joints are huge so he needs some time to develop before
he is asked for anything fast.

He has the best mind you could ever ask for. We like him a lot.

[two gun sid]

14. Thank you. I wondered what you guys did...

we break them in Oct/Nov and put some slow miles on them until Dec. We turn them out 'til March then bring them back and start back with them. No speed until those knees are closed and really no speed until we're ready to start racing them. 2YO's start in July here.

[aaronbees]

15. He ran a nice race, OB

He'll break that maiden someday soon. Hope he's not too bruised up. :)

[Justpat]

16. The cut on his left leg look deep

but he went back to the track today and was feeling so good the
rider couldn't jog him. He had to gallop.

He is pretty tough. Good thing. This is a tough game we are in

[aaronbees]

6. The top two are clear favorites

But horses like Smooth Air, Visionaire, Gayego and Adriano will be there at a nice price and they're plenty cabable of being in the mix. I peg Colonel John for the win, but a few of those four longer shots along with Eight Belles could get up in my superfecta.