Bookmark this prediction: Big Brown will win the Triple Crown.

[trumad]

And he'll do it easily.

[two gun sid]

1. I tried to recommend this thread...

but you can't recommend anything in this group.

He's a good choice, trumad. He's certainly the most talented of the whole bunch.

[trumad]

2. An Amazing horse

who seems to toy with his competitors. I only wish I had him at 14 to 1 in his maiden race. ;-)

[two gun sid]

3. His inexperience bothers me...

they've been keeping him in nice calm Palm Meadows and I wonder about his reaction to that Derby mob scene. Watch his FL Derby race. He was really looking all around at the crowd in the stretch. And his bad feet. Those feet bother me.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Yeah, but I don't like predictions that can go 0-2, or 1-1, but not 2-0

* "I'm convinced we're going to get a great price in the Derby"

* "Bookmark this prediction: Big Brown will win the Triple Crown."

See what I mean? :)

I expect Big Brown to win, based on Curlin-type flashes of ability but no Street Sense, or perhaps even Hard Spun, caliber of opponent in this race.

[trumad]

6. Big Brown changed my mind

Still---if he runs at 4 to 1 I won't mind.

[TZ]

5. Umm trumad...

Can I ask, what do you have agaisnt Big Brown? I've seen the way your predictions go.....;-)

[trumad]

7. That's only football

:-)

[aaronbees]

10. Hey, turtlensue...

you just may catch me in the Road to the Roses contest! I see ya sneaking up on me! :D

[TZ]

11. lol

Thats all luck there...I was convinced when the contest started that War Pass was the big Triple Crown star...with Pyro a sharp number two...shows what I really know....:rofl:

[Justpat]

8. The ultimate gage of greatness in Thoroughbreds is

the ability to carry speed over a distance of ground.

So far this spring we have seen a bunch of allowance horses
take turns beating one another in in stakes as they try
to earn their spot in the Derby. None of them has displayed
the raw speed of BB. These other horses have run
like decent, useful horses, but BB is the only one to carry
his speed past 1 1/16. His breeding says he will get the
Belmont distance if he wins the other two legs.

But Big Brown is going to have to convince me in the Derby that
he can get the rest of the job done. He is inexperienced and
has not overcome any difficulty in his races to date. Three
blow out races against inferior competition doesn't season a
horse for the Derby.

Smarty Jones was a speed horse who could get the distance
but he had raced well at two and carried his form into his
three year old year.


After the post position draw on Wednesday, I'll start studying
the race better. Right now I'm leaning toward BB, Cool Coal Man
and Z Fortune. I threw Z Fortune in there because he is strong,
tough and can grind it out in the stretch. I think CCM is maturing
and coming up to this race in great shape.

[aaronbees]

9. Well, Dutrow sure is confident....

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24326496/

"Until somebody shows me the beast, this is not a tough horse race," Dutrow said in a typical recent interview. "I'm training this horse for a horse race; I don't care what the name of it is. I feel he's the best horse in the race - I feel he's going to win the race. Anything else is going to be extremely disappointing to me.

"I know there's no one going into this race as good as he is right now. If he breaks clean, it's a mismatch to me on paper."

Interesting that Big Brown didn't train at all in January. Will it come back to bite him?

[trumad]

12. 1 down, 2 to go

[two gun sid]

13. No other Derby horse is gonna show up for the Preakness....

it'll be a new cast of characters in Maryland. It looks like all he has to do is stay sound. Good Luck to him.

It's a shame but, my heart ain't in this. I've been waiting for 30 years for a horse to be this dominant and I can't muster up much enthusiasm.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. That's the same way I feel

It lacks a build up of anticipation during the winter. It lacks a rival. It lacks a competent slate of foes.

I posted last night that I had no idea how they would hype the Preakness, given the certainties of the field, no logical challengers exiting the Derby.

Eventually, we might need an asterisk on trumad's pick.:)

[trumad]

15. Nope

Don't matter---- if you win all 3, you deserve it.... Smarty can tell you that.

[Awsi Dooger]

20. I was just kiddin'

But since you mentioned Smarty Jones, that goes along with my concern about '08. At least Birdstone was entered in the Belmont, after initially pointed elsewhere.

Can you imagine racing history without that late decision? Smarty could have stumbled the final quarter in almost 28 seconds and still been heralded as a Triple Crown immortal.

The Preakness looks like glorified allowance company but I hope the Belmont fills with some of the legit challengers who contested the Derby.

This is what makes me miss the Baffert/Lukas heyday. Those guys understood the history of the sport, and the duty to challenge in every Classic, whether it suited the logical form of your horse or the remainder of your schedule.

[two gun sid]

16. I just don't know how to feel about this....

I was hoping the next TC winner would bring a new group of fans to our sport. That's not gonna happen. And it isn't just because of Eight Belles breaking down on Derby Day.

I've probably made an ass of myself talking about Big Brown's foot problems. But, there's a reason I keep bringing it up. And that reason is Little Dickie Dutrow himself. That guy is not to be trusted. IEAH is not to be trusted. For these guys horse racing means nothing. The horses mean nothing. The media talks about Dickie's rise from the bottom of the barrel to the top of the heap over the last ten years. It's fucking laughable. If somebody in the media would actually scratch the surface of Dutrow's success the things that they'd find would hurt the sport more than a TC winner would help it.

Medication violations every year. Falsified workouts. Fines. Suspensions. Betting coups. Wild Desert and The Queen's Plate. Dan Borislow. Bobby Frankel. Dutrow is bad news.

What does it mean when a guy like Frank Whiteley dies in the same week Little Dickie Dutrow becomes the biggest story in horse racing?

[jakefrep]

17. According to this, that prediction may be accurate...

http://www.drf.com/news/article/94282.html

Though I'm intrigued by the possibility of Denis of Cork running in the Belmont.

[two gun sid]

18. Dutrow is not so sure about his horse...

winning the Preakness. He's making all kinds of excuses in advance of the race. He'd like a longer wait between races. His feet. What if we miss training?

Love Big Brown, hate his trainer.

[Binka]

19. Denis Of Cork Is AMAZING

I was all over that horse! He had the absolute worst trip and he came from dead last! IMHO he would have beat BB if he hadn't had such a shit trip. His speed at the end fucking rocked. Borel is an amazing jockey. DOC is the HORSE!

[aaronbees]

23. I'm back on the DoC bandwagon

And would love to see him thwart things. If not him, there's Casino Drive, Tomcito and maybe Harlem Rocker to set things right again in the world and deny a TC for 'ol BB.

[two gun sid]

24. I'm on the "Anybody but Dutrow" bandwagon....

Dutrow is a fucking idiot. He and his bestest pal, Bobby Frankel, can kiss my ass.

[two gun sid]

21. Baker: "Let's not put Big Brown in the Hall of Fame yet"

From The Blood Horse:
Rick Dutrow, who once ran Golden Man in the Long Branch Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth on a Saturday and the Leonard Richards Stakes (gr. III) at Delaware the following day (finishing third and second, respectively), is not thrilled about having to run Big Brown back in two weeks in the May 17 Preakness Stakes (gr. I), but remains confident his colt will run another big race.

With Big Brown earning a huge Ragozin Sheets number in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), Dutrow feels a bounce is imminent in the second leg of the Triple Crown.

But, unless there is a brilliant new shooter with a ton of ability waiting for him in Baltimore, Big Brown could bounce to the moon and still win the Preakness. He’s that much faster than anything we’ve seen so far.

“It’s no party running him back in two weeks, but we have to,” Dutrow said. “Two weeks definitely is a question mark, but I don’t see him falling off his game. This is the best he’s come out of a race since we’ve had him. In his first two races he ran down a little up front, so I’m happy to see how good he came out of the Derby.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45114.htm

[aaronbees]

22. He's already got a huge stud deal brewing

Won't see him too much longer.

[TZ]

26. This is one of the things that annoy me about racing

The whole huge money in stud fees thing.

BTW, did you catch the story about War Emblem..How he's just not interested in the ladies..its pretty funny

[a kennedy]

25. I just don't like his name.......

and I know that's a pretty stupid reason. :blush: Big Brown.... sheesh, and I'm still sick over EB, so if he were to win the triple, it wouldn't be a happy occasion.

[Justpat]

27. He better have his shoes glued on tight.

That Casino Drive that just won the Peter Pan is really impressive.

He won by many, did it wrapped up and went the mile and eighth in 1:47.4

[aaronbees]

28. Better Than Honour

may get her own kinda "Triple Crown" - three offspring in a row win the Belmont. Think I'd rather see that than BB go on a roll.

[THUNDER HANDS]

29. i live 10 minutes from Belmont Park

Big Brown is not winning the Belmont. Nobody wins the Belmont, they survive it. Big Brown will be lucky to finish third at the Belmont.

[trumad]

30. Two down---one to go...

Hey Magic---care to amend your opinion?

[RL3AO]

31. I guess it would be fitting for a horse on roids to win the triple crown.

Its not against the rules so I'm not complaining, but it is fitting considering it is 2008.

[TZ]

Huh...

Well it IS ironic that its Big Brown (BB) ..when we have Barry Bonds in baseball.....

[trumad]

33. Oh God...here we go.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[greenbriar]

34. that horse is a thing of beauty

easy race


did you see the jockey actually hold him back?


awesome

[two gun sid]

35. kick.

You're either a hero or a goat.

[trumad]

36. No not really---

I predicted this way before the derby and almost had it....Plus I won 300 bucks of the horse in the derby so I'm just fine. I think the cracked hoof brought him down and he wasn't fit.

Oh well.... I tend to agree that if he won, it would have been a bit tainted a bit because they're really not many good 3 year olds this year.

[Justpat]

37. I think he just wasn't fit.

And I'm glad Kent pulled him up.

You can not bluff your way into a mile and half race.
You have to train for it.

[two gun sid]

38. You did good then...

and I hope you'll keep contributing to the horse racing threads throughout the year. You're a good sport, Sport.

[Justpat]

39. Second that.

trumad is a great addition to the horse racing crew here.

[trumad]

40. Thanks guys...

I just love horse racing and I am partial to horse that come out of nowhere...