A comparison of Barbaro and Big Brown at the Florida Derby

[trumad]

A lot has been mentioned about Big Browns experience or lack of factoring into his running in the upcoming KY Derby. Barbaro had only run 5 times before the KY Derby and that included the Florida Derby. The KY Derby will be Big Browns 4th race. So in MHO you can throw out the experience factor.

Also: The FL Derby was Barbaros 5th run and only the 3rd run for Big Brown. Watch the 2 YouTubes and you'll see Big Brown clearly outperforming Barbaros FL Derby achievement. Big Brown toyed with the field and won handedly. Now granted, the competition may have not been as good, but BB's times sure were.

Folks---- this is a killer horse and most certainly in the league with the vaunted Barbaro.

1/4 23:45 Barbaro
1/4 22: 76 Big Brown

1/2 47:35 Barbaro
1/2 45:83 Big Brown

3/4 1:11/37 Barbaro
3/4 1:10/08 Big Brown

1 mile 1:36/08 Barbaro
1 mile 135:18 Big Brown

Finish 1:49/01 Barbaro
Finish 1:48/16 Big Brown

The YouTube of both races:

Big Brown
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ZnomqXMqBmY

Barbaro
http://youtube.com/watch?v=CujIQoex29k

[two gun sid]

1. Time only matters when you're in jail...

Look, I agree that he is exceptional. But, remember, Big Brown set the pace and had it all his way while Barbaro sat off the pace and let Sharp Humor set the early fractions. Prado took a good hold of Barbaro early.

And, as I mentioned in another thread, BB's bad feet bother me. Bad feet are one of the hardest things for a good racehorse to overcome. Things have a way of not working out when your horse has bad feet. No foot, no horse.

I hope you're right and he wins the TC. I've been waiting 30 years for it to happen and nothing would please me more.

[Justpat]

2. My concern is that by running only once at two

and on grass at that, and then running twice at three, he does not have the physical
strengthening of his skeleton that only running provides. Seattle Slew ran three times
at two, but set a record at the time for a two year old going a mile. Then he ran
in near track record time at Hialeah, then got won the Wood but got tired in the process.
So he was physically hardened and ready for the task of the TC. BB has had three
races in his life, and will be asked to run over a harder race track than
he has faced and to run faster and harder than he ever has.

If he can do it off of three lifetime starts, then he truly is a superstar and I
will admit such. But I have reservations about a horse being asked to put the hammer
down like he is going to be asked to do in his fourth lifetime start.

I am less worried about his feet than some. Those shoes he wears absorb a huge amount
of concussion.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Excellent points

Also, Secretariat was Horse of the Year at 2, and Affirmed defeated Alydar 4 times in 6 meetings at 2.

So this is certainly uncharted territory for a Triple Crown champion, at least in modern terms. I think one of the '30s Triplers was otherwise a chump.

It can work both ways, Big Brown a budding superhorse as trumad suggests, but simply not ready yet, as Old Broad and two gun side and aaronbees have emphasized. Let's see, we have to retreat all of one year for an example. Coming out of the Derby there were many doubters of Curlin, after never truly contending in the Derby, with Street Sense blowing past him like he was in quicksand. But it turned out Curlin simply needed more seasoning and ran his worst race in the Derby.

That's hardly the first time we've seen that. Point Given was a proven champion but raced dull in the Derby. It's the most atypical race any of these horses will ever run, and that's why I'm hesitant to take a low price on Big Brown.

If Big Brown had two more races under his belt, let's say one in '07 and another early this year, I'd have maybe 20% the reservation. Don't forget, last year was the first example in 24 years of a horse with only 2 starts at age 3 winning the Derby. Big Brown has only 2 under his belt this year. Prior to Sunny's Halo in '83 you have to retreat more than 3 decades for the previous example, Jet Pilot in '47.

[aaronbees]

3. But the Florida Derby wasn't Barbaro's best race...

Clearly he ran his best in the Kentucky Derby, not in Florida. Heck, I remember not picking Barbaro in the Derby because I wanted to see him perform great on a fast track; there were certainly a few questions about him pre-Kentucky. The trick is he flashed his greatest on Derby day, not in a prep. So, you can compare preps all up and down and see briliance (rightfully so), but the real deal is Derby day in 'ol Kentucky, which throws a lot at a young horse. How'd the great prep work out for Bellamy Road?

[Awsi Dooger]

5. You guys stole all my points

I feel like I'm batting 9th.

Barbaro ran a freakish race on the grass at age 2. He wasn't nearly as impressive in Florida.

But when he burst into the clear in the Derby I remember gulping, and thinking about the form he had demonstrated in the turf race.

Big Brown raced against a lesser field in the Florida Derby. Plus, keep in mind he had almost no money going into that race and might have been excluded from the Derby field without a win. The connections had no choice but to emphasize that race to the fullest. Barbaro's was more of a traditional prep.

[trumad]

6. Me thinks this years derby is full of a lessor field.

Brown by 5..... I'm sticking to it.

;-)