Belmont Picks and Predictions.

[Justpat]

I'm boxing Tale Of Ekati and Dennis Of Cork.

BB will be even money, so whats the point?

Casino Drive will not be on the board. If he keeps going the way he is in the morning, he
will not be in the entry box.

What your thoughts about the race?

[two gun sid]

1. Icabad Crane - Big Brown exacta

I think Big Brown gets beat.

[TZ]

2. Really?

I think this field is even weaker than the Preakness. I don't think we've seen BB really pressed yet. I bet its not a easy vic but I think he wins.

[two gun sid]

3. Well....

I think I'd just like to see Dutrow if BB gets beat. He's been pretty goddamn talkative leading up to this race. Would he have more class than Frankel and come out and meet the press? I think he and Bobby have about the same amount of class so I don't think he would.

I'd love to see Dutrow get his head handed back to him by Icabad Crane.

[trumad]

4. Aint gonna happen---no way--no chance

BB by 15

[two gun sid]

5. Oh, I'm gonna box it...

still, trumad.....I'd like to see Dutrow's stupid fucking face if he gets beat.

Good Luck, buddy! Are you gonna bet the race?

[trumad]

6. I doubt BB will be even money

He might have the lowest odds in the history of the Belmont. I might find sweet money in the place or show position....

[TZ]

7. 15?

Okay trumad...I would love to see that..not quite the 30 length Secretariat win but that would quiet a lot of nay sayers.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Secretariat didn't win by 30

At least you downgraded from the accepted 31. It was a sloppy patch job chart, caught up in the heat of the moment, an other worldly race.

But that doesn't mean the mathematics make any sense. And you can't dismiss the math in favor of hasty visuals from imperfect camera angles, even though some horse racing experts are comfy to do so.

The time gap to the place horse is 4.76 seconds at the highest clocking. Others have found 4.73. It clocks even less on YouTube versions but I'll accept the 4.76 since the point stands up to any number. That 4.76 equates to 6.51 lengths per second, using the official 31 length margin. And that's nonsense. Horses don't run 6.51 lengths per second at the end of a mile and a half. Particularly soundly thumped second-rate horses, and especially when you evaluate the rest of the chart. Secretariat is given credit for gaining 10 lengths on the field in the final quarter. Yet he ran that quarter in 25 seconds. We know that from the official time, 1:59 to 2:24.

So how does Secretariat gain 10 lengths in a very good but not freakish time of 25 seconds for the final quarter, then simultaneously we want to assert those horses who were losing ground dashed nearly the final sixteenth at a 6.51 lengths per second clip? It's so outrageous I can't believe it stands in horse racing lore.

There's no reasonable logic to conclude the place and show horses dawdled until Secretariat crossed the line, then suddenly found after burners and ran like sprint champions over the final 4.76 seconds. Let me wager against that mindset every second of every day.

Here's the comical aspect. If you accept the 6.51 as the rate for horses going at 26 second clip for a quarter mile -- and that 26 is being very kind at the end of a mile and a half, and by the chart with Secretariat gaining 10 lengths -- that means horses who run at 22 second clip are going at 7.7 lengths per second. LOL. Which means the accepted 5 lengths per second number is low by more than 50 percent when horses are at flight early in a race. Yet when I've queried racing experts on actual pace, without mentioning the lengths per second application to the '73 Belmont, they never dare to assert 7.7 or higher at any point of a race, even when I've asked how fast sprinters go at the beginning of a race. Somehow the world parted for the '73 Belmont alone.

When you clock other races on YouTube, or races I taped on old VHS tapes, the trailing horses never manage anything close to 6.51 pace when a beaten-lengths to time-elapse standard is used. It's generally in the 5-5.5 area, very logical.

The truth of the Belmont '73 margin is closer to mid 20s. In fact, I'd love for the actual margin to be revealed by some space age or other worldly source, just for the laughs of it.

[two gun sid]

21. I'm gonna put Anak Nakal in the show spot....

if ever his breeding should be in his favor, it's this race.

[bread_and_roses]

8. I don't have a prediction but I am greatly distressed by the weather

forcast - not just for BB (I want to see him win, and win powerfully, but who the hell can ever tell with horses?) but am fretting for all the horses - latest forcast I think in 90's. I'm hoping some of the horse people here can tell me that we are not likely to see horses dropping with heat stroke trying to run 1 1/2 in such brutal heat.

[Justpat]

9. The forecast on channel 12 says high eighties.

The horses get electrolytes every day to help in this kind of weather. But there are some horses
that do not tolerate heat as well as others.

Horses that are dead fit don't have much problem with it - but you get an occasional horse that
is a non sweater and that is a problem.

Also, the state vet closely monitors the horses in the paddock and over at the gate before they
load. He makes sure that the horse are sprayed with the hose if they are broken out in sweat.
There are hoses in the paddock and along the outside rail by the place where the horses
come onto the track when leaving the paddock.

[bread_and_roses]

14. Thanks for the info, OB

I'll just hope all is well, then.

[two gun sid]

10. The True North....

on the Belmont undercard looks like a great race. Eight horse entered. IEAH's Benny The Bull takes on Sheikh Rashid bin Mohd Al Maktoum's BC Sprint winner Thor's Echo. I love those sprinters.

[two gun sid]

11. Suffolk Offers Big Brown, Curlin $5 Mil

From The Blood Horse:
Suffolk Downs has announced that the purse for this year’s Massachusetts Handicap will be $5 million if Big Brown wins the Triple Crown and both he and 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) winner Curlin remain unbeaten in 2008, and go on to start in the MassCap against one another. The $5 million would include a $1 million participation bonus for each.

The 66th MassCap, scheduled for Sept. 20, and contested at 1 1/8 miles, currently carries a purse of $500,000 and is one of five races in the Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” Classic Division. The additional purse money would be funded by Coastal Development, LLC, a company controlled by Richard T. Fields, the largest shareholder of Suffolk Downs.

“Big Brown and Curlin are regarded as the two best thoroughbreds in the world and racing fans would like nothing more than to see them go head to head,” said Fields. “If they are to square off, we feel that a $5 million purse is a great incentive and what better place than at Suffolk Downs in the city of Boston, the sports capital of the world.”

The purse would be $3 million if Big Brown wins the Triple Crown and both he and Curlin start the race but with one or both horses having suffered a defeat in 2008. The $3 million would include a $500,000 participation bonus for each.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45594.htm

I'd like to see a big time horse race in a great sports city like Boston. Lot's of Irish folks there, too. The only thing we love more than our mothers are fast horses.

[TZ]

12. OOh!

That sounds like something wonderful. Reminds me of the stuff from Seabiscuits time when they tried to set up races between him and Count Fleet...
If BB wins the TC I hope this would happen....Sept is far enough away to give BB a rest...

[aaronbees]

13. Rooting for Casino Drive and Denis of Cork

Though it seems Casino Drive's form is suspect now and Denis of Cork, well he's no Big Brown. Honestly, Big Brown should spank this field into submission around the turn and never look back. Part of me would really love to see it, part of me is just disgusted at the whole Big Brown crew. I'm very much conflicted and, to be honest, haven't been paying all that much attention. Meh.

Epsom Derby on Saturday, as well. Kind of like New Approach or Casual Conquest there. Seems a wide open field.

[aaronbees]

22. Final trifecta pick: Big Brown, Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati

And that was a thrilling Epsom Derby with New Approach the victor!

[bread_and_roses]

15. looks like you may have have been prescient....

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/45605.htm

Status of Casino Drive in Doubt
Updated: June 6, 2008

The status of Casino Drive, the 7-2 second-choice for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes (gr. I), is in doubt it was announced Friday morning. The winner of the May 10 Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) did not go to the track this morning.

“He has a small issue with his left-hind leg and we are not happy,” said Nobutaka Tada, spokesperson of owner Hidetoshi Yamamota and trainer Kazuo Fujisawa. “So we did not go to the track.”

“We have not yet scratched him from the race,” Tada said outside Barn 17. “There is nothing stopping us at this moment and we are not thinking of scratching. We think it might be a small stone bruise and we will watch it closely.

“It is very minor,” he said. “We detected it when he walked before he was going to the track. We noticed it when he was picking it up higher. We felt it and it was warmer than the other feet.”

[Justpat]

17. Yeah, he didn't look right the last week on the track.

And his stablemates aren't much better.

Spark Candle was last yesterday in the Hill Prince on the turf. He moves like a shetland pony - very short
in front.

[GOPisEvil]

18. Big Brown, Macho Again, Tale of Ekati

If Prado gets back on Tale of Ekati, he will finish 2nd, with Macho Again 3rd.

[GOPisEvil]

19. Is Dutrow going to get the double? Benny The Bull wins.

He just barreled up the center of the track to win.

[two gun sid]

20. IEAH own Benny The Bull also...

damn those guys.

[TZ]

23. Yep.

Thats another real nice horse though. I thought he was gonna come in FOURTH. Impressive come from behind.

[two gun sid]

24. Goddamn it! Lava Man just got beat in the Whittingham....

finished 3rd after leading the whole race. He fought back in deep stretch and was beat to the wire by Artiste Royal(IRE) and Monzante. Man, I wanted Lava to win this one.

[aaronbees]

25. Damn, really?

That's honestly better than I expected. Will have to watch it later. Changed plans and watching the Belmont from home, Sid, and starting to get real excited! Rooting for Better Talk Now in the Woodford Reserve!

[two gun sid]

26. What happened?...

I see Dancing Forever in the Winners Circle. Where'd BTN finish?

[aaronbees]

27. Not sure about BTN

My xpressbet window went wonky and I missed the race. x(

[two gun sid]

28. YouBet just replayed the race...

BTN was making a run and had to check up. He wasn't gonna win but he wasn't gonna finish dead last either. Tough trip for BTN.

[Justpat]

30. BTN got in real tight in deep stretch and ran up someone's ass.

He bobbled pretty bad but galloped out good afterwards.

[Justpat]

29. Was that race on the grass or cushion track? n/t

[two gun sid]

31. On the grass...

he didn't get beat too badly, a couple of lengths at most. Now Frankel's horse, Champs Elysees(GB), got his ass beat.

[two gun sid]

32. I'm watching the win pool totals on YouBet...

almost 4.5M bet on BB. Denis Of Cork next at 770K.

[Justpat]

33. I retain my status as the worst handicapper that ever lived.

:-(

[two gun sid]

34. LOL. You ain't no worse than the rest of us...

How about SB owner Nick Zito? If he can't win the TC he's not gonna let anyone else win it. LOL.

[two gun sid]

35. Hey, we missed a big race on Friday...

the G2 Brooklyn Handicap at 1 1/2 miles. Won by Delosvientos in 2:30 and change. Guess who finished 2nd? The tough old gelding Evening Attire! What a great old horse EA is. A Hall of Famer in my book.

[Justpat]

36. I watched that race.

EA was looking like he was thinking of actually exerting himself to catch the winner, then said: "Nah,
maybe another day."


He's the best.

[two gun sid]

37. Well, he knows what's best...

I don't feel I have the knowledge or experience to second guess Evening Attire.

We have a 11YO trotter in MI named El Tigger. Our regular driver conditions him and you would just be amazed at this old horse. He doesn't wear any kind of protective equipment his gait is so perfect and his legs look like they belong on a 2YO. Every spring he kicks ass and takes names. He knows every pole and when to wait and when to go. Come July he takes some time off and comes back ready to rumble the next year. Amazing horse. I love him.