Roy Jones, Jr. vs Joe Calzaghe

[H2O Man]

TONIGHT - at New York - (HBO PPV) - 12 rounds,
light heavyweights: Joe Calzaghe (45-0, 32 KOs)
vs. Roy Jones Jr. (52-4, 38 KOs); 10 rounds, light
welterweights: Dmitriy Salita (28-0-1, 16 KOs) vs.
Derrick Campos (17-5, 10 KOs); 10 rounds, welterweights:
Zab Judah (36-6, 25 KOs) vs. Ernest Johnson
(18-2-1, 7 KOs); 10 rounds, light welterweights:
Francisco Figueroa (19-2, 13 KOs) vs. Emanuel Augustus
(38-29-6, 20 KOs); 8 rounds, light middleweights:
Kerry Hope (11-1, 1 KO) vs. Willie Lee (16-5, 11 KOs);
8 rounds, heavyweights: Dominick Guinn (29-6-1, 20 KOs)
vs. Gabe Brown (18-8-4, 12 KOs); 8 rounds, middleweights:
Daniel Edouard (19-2-2, 11 KOs) vs. Alphonso Williams
(10-4, 8 KOs).

There are two interesting fights on the card tonight. In the first, Zab Judah attempts to get ranked in the junior welterweight division. He has not had "luck" at the heavier weight. It may be that he has waited too long to move back down. However, this fight could be fun to watch.

The main event features Roy Jones, Jr., in a non-title bout against Joe Calzaghe. The odds-makers have made Calzaghe a 4 to 1 favorite. Boxing people see it a little differently, however. The Europeans heavily favor Calzaghe, as might be expected. In the US, a number of people give Calzaghe an edge, but think Roy could pull off an upset.

Bernard Hopkins said that he thinks Roy can win, in part due to faster hand speed. Roy does not have the ability to match Calzaghe's punch output, but the majority of his rapid combinations lack real power. They do, of course, allow him to mix in power punches from time to time.

I think it comes down to where the fight is fought. If Roy can stay in the middle of the ring, and keep his left foot inside Calzaghe's feet when Joe shortens the distance, he has a chance. That will potentially allow him to get off his left hook, to either the ribs or the head. Roy punches hard still, and if he catches Joe coming into his power, he can hurt him.

I see the fight as about 50-50 going in, though I know that Calzaghe has some advantages. Any predictions?

[H2O Man]

1. Why did I

write "non-title" bout? My error.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. I like Calzaghe but I'm rooting for Jones

I wanted to bet Calzaghe. Not at those odds. There has been some money on Jones but Calzaghe remains a heavy chalk, just less than 1/3 in man-to-man terms. The sportsbooks today had it -300 on Calzaghe (30 to win 10) and +250 on Jones (10 to win 25).

Calzaghe is only a few years younger than Jones. At their best, Jones was superior. That's what makes me hesitate. But Jones at this stage has very low punch output and is dependent on occasional big shots. Calzaghe should be able to back him up and win a unanimous decision. Right now Hopkins is superior to Jones, IMO, and Calzaghe was able to out point Hopkins, particularly in the later rounds.

If Roy survives this one, I'll definitely be wagering against him in a subsequent big fight. At 39 a speed fighter can't pull off a series of upsets.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Viewing link

I'm not sure if posting links like this is kosher here. Other sites don't seem to mind:

http://www.kgs-tv.net/stream/stream.html

[Redbear]

4. Jones looks extremely fit

I pick the upset.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. WOW, first round knockdown from Jones

I wish he would have pressed the issue after the knockdown

[Awsi Dooger]

6. I hate to see Jones losing to guys he would have picked apart in his prime

Calzaghe taunting Jones. A half decade ago, or slightly more, Jones would have responded by humiliating him.

[IndianaJones]

7. what a fighter Calzaghe is. nt.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. I appreciate Max Kellerman heralding Jones at his peak

Saying "herien lies the danger of fighting past your prime," and "no one was going to walk over Joe Calzaghe," but "...Jones was pretty special (in his prime)."

Absolutely. I hate that Jones' reputation suffers late in his career. This is the second major mistake he made in agreeing to a fight, the first being the second fight with Tarver.

Too bad about the cut but this fight unfolded as expected, more or less as I predicted in my first post in this thread, too active and able to back Jones up. That's why I thought Jones really should have pressed the issue after his first round knockdown. There was no way that advantage was going to show up repeatedly, if ever again. But Jones' instinct his entire career was to be cautious and allow his natural advantage to dictate. In this case he needed to shoot for the moon in that opening round.

[trumad]

9. Hopkins next?

I think Hopkins tokk it last time.

[H2O Man]

10. Hopkins.

It is unlikely that either Joe Calzaghe or Roy Jones will give Bernard a rematch. Calzaghe has been talking about the importance of retiring undefeated. He had considered a last fight against Kelly Pavlik, but Bernard erased that possibility. While he could make a good dollar fighting B-Hop again, he probably has little motivation to risk his undefeated record, considering the potential risks.

Roy has always said he would not fight B-Hop again. He identified the reason as Bernard's personality. There would be nothing to gain boxing-wise in from his perspective. Of course, the money would be there. Even at this stage, a return match would sell, much like a rematch of Trinidad and de la Hoya.

There is a very real possibility that Joe, Roy, and B-Hop will now retire. It may be harder for Joe and Bernard to stay retired.