High-school seniors across America are anxiously awaiting the verdicts from the colleges of their choice later this month. But though it may not be of much solace to them, in just a few years the admissions frenzy is likely to ease. It's simply a matter of demographics.
Projections show that by next year or the year after, the annual number of high-school graduates in the United States will peak at about 2.9 million after a 15-year climb.
The number is then expected to decline until about 2015. Most universities expect this to translate into fewer applications and less selectivity, with most students likely finding it easier to get into college.
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That won't help Charlie Cotton, a senior at Madison High School in New Jersey. He has the grades and scores to aim for the nation's elite universities; yet, in the hypercompetitive world of college admissions, his chances of winning a spot at his top picks — such as Middlebury, Dartmouth and Oberlin — are highly uncertain. When his sister, Emma, who is in eighth grade, applies to college, she is expected to face a less frantic landscape with fewer rivals.
The demographic changes include sharp geographic, social and economic variations. Experts anticipate, for example, a decline in affluent high-school graduates and an increase in poor and working-class ones. In response, colleges and universities are already increasing their recruitment of students in high-growth states and expanding their financial-aid offerings to low-income students with academic potential.
Seattle TimesThis too shall pass after the economic meltdown.