This isn't my usual forum...

[gcomeau]

...but I felt compelled to make a few comments this afternoon after the last couple of days of seeing Prop 8 threads melting down as I browsed through the Latest Discussions page.

First, a little in the way of introduction. I live in California... Milpitas to be exact. I did not vote on election day (put away the pitchforks, Canadian citizen) but obviously living here and being someone who actually does pay serious attention to politics I've been fairly well exposed to the battle surrounding the election. I drove by both "Yes" and "No" on Prop 8 signs coming to and from work pretty much every day. I was bombarded by idiotic television advertisements. About a week before the election coming out of a local restaurant with my wife someone on the way in was flaunting a shirt proclaiming that marriage was meant to be between one man and one woman... I restrained the sudden and rather serious urge to smack him, or at least tell him to go fuck himself. Which somewhat surprised me honestly, because I hadn't expected to react quite that strongly. I know my opinions on the issue, and they're rather firmly held and deeply reasoned, but it's never been a very intensely personal thing to me... probably mostly because even living here in the Bay area where there is a relatively high GLBT population I've just never been very directly engaged with that community. It's always been an issue one degree removed from my direct day to day concerns. Taken dead seriously, most certainly, but I've never had a very high direct emotional investment in it specifically.

When I saw how the vote ended up going I got rather pissed off and disappointed. I won't pretend that my reaction to it was comparable to what those of you who are more directly effected by it must have reacted, but I was not a happy camper. However, most likely largely because of my relative lack of direct personal attachment to this issue I fell back on my natural instincts and looked at the problem fairly analytically. Did I mention I'm an engineer? No? Well, I'm an engineer, I always think the answer is in the facts and figures somewhere. Anyway... I directed my thoughts in that direction, and I got a lot less disappointed all of a sudden. (Once again, pitchforks down, I have a good reason. Honest.)

Here's the thing, there's been a lot of obsessing over the exit polls around here the last few days. Unfortunately most of that obsessing has been focused on the absolute wrong numbers. Which race voted which way. Which religion (or lack thereof) voted which way. It is pointless and self defeating to focus on those numbers, nothing good will come of turning this into a confrontation along racial or religious lines. What everyone should be looking at is the one single number which both tells us how this is going to go in the future and why we can afford quite a bit of optimism on the issue regardless of the outcome of this particular vote. This number:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#CAI01p1

Vote by Age

Total -------------- Yes --- No
18-24 (11%)------ 36% -- 64%
25-29 (9%) ------ 41% -- 59%
30-39 (17%) ------- 52% -- 48%
40-49 (22%) ------- 59% -- 41%
50-64 (26%) ------- 51% -- 49%
65 or Over (15%)- 61% -- 39%

That number says it all to anyone looking at the long term. Try to step back from the immediate pain of a lost battle and look at how the war is going, and the picture gets a hell of a lot brighter. The bottom line is nobody gains if we turn this into a round of back and forth recriminations based on race or religion and how those types of demographics voted, look at it in the proper context. This is a generational struggle, and the up and comers ALWAYS win the generational struggles in the end. Always. Because there is one simple basic fact of nature that rules that contest, life expectancy. Not to be morbid, and no offense intended towards our fellow progressives of advanced years on the forum, but those young people are tomorrow's electorate and those 65+ voters of today aren't going to be voting much longer. Their numbers are declining hour by hour quite frankly, and the new arrivals to the 18+ crowd swell with every passing day and march on up the age demographics at a steady and unstoppable creep.

So, I'm not suggesting anyone here shouldn't be upset, or telling anyone to just get over it. I am making the observation that if anyone would like a different perspective on things it's there for the having. Don't think of this vote as indicative of the shape of things to come. It isn't. It is the last dying gasp of an older generation's worldview that is on the cusp of political extinction. It will go down kicking and screaming and screeching, but it is going down.

Soon.

[baby_mouse]

1. I'm glad you posted this.

Thank you.

[bluedawg12]

3. First, thank you for this.

Next, it does point towards hope in the 18-29 year old demo.

But then, a sobering thought hit me, that is the last peak age for singles. I have read elsewhere, that when folks settle down and get married they tend to revert to more conservative social values.

One other thought, that CNN poll has been tauted, analyzed and more lately pilloried, for methodology.

Isn't it curious that so far as I have seen, we are all pretty much relying on the same single poll? I mean that it must not have risen to the level of others besides CNN to perform an exit poll.

Never-the-less, your point is well taken and your kind and thoughtful words appreciated.

[gcomeau]

6. Unfortunately...

...the CNN exit polling was the only one to break down prop 8 voters by demographic groups, at least that I've been able to find so far. MSNBC for example did exit polling on prop 8, but only as a single line item inside their overall exit polling. Their published results are limited to "percent voted yes" and "percent voted no" for all voters, they only bothered with the demographic breakdown for the presidential contest. But with an effect as large as the one seen in the CNN numbers it is extraordinarily unlikely their numbers are off by enough to change the conclusion.

As for the "conservatising" effect of getting married and growing older, I have little doubt it exists. But recognize it is a relative process, and something of a two way effect. Will some of those 18 year old voters of today become the conservative voters of the next generation? Sure. But "conservative" in the future is unlikely to be the same thing as "conservative" now. Some of those voters will get a bit more conservative then they are now. But what is defined to BE conservative will almost certainly be a little more liberal than it is today also.

If you compared the "conservative" social values of the average Republican today with the average "conservative" social values of 40 years ago on issues of race, sexuality, etc... I'd be willing to bet good money you'd see a pronounced difference between the two, a trend I have zero doubt will continue based on the available data. The larger long term trend remains in place. As those young voters age, members of the newest generations begin populating the voting rolls and the older generation drops off the voting roles results like this one are simply not going to continue happening.

[monmouth]

2. I voted NO here in Florida. Unless you knew specifically what

you were voting for or against, the wording on the ballot was atrocious. It started out as a negative and was loaded with legalese. It was placed on the ballot underneath those questions that were pretty much NO votes. Older people/seniors, would most likely have glanced at this and without much thought unless they know exactly what the Prop was; just voted NO. It's disgusting and my heart goes out the GLBT community. I also truly feel that churches need to lose their IRS exemptions. Don't preach to me how I should vote in the booth, and to the Catholic Church (mine) I would emphasize they should clean up their own mess before (pedophelia) before voicing any opines on this.

[bluedawg12]

4. Well said, thank you! :) n/t

[RetiredTrotskyite]

5. Thanks, gcomeau....

for posting this and welcome to this particular forum. My spouse and I LOVE Canada. We married in Windsor, Ontario in September of last year and I thank the Canadian people from the bottom of my heart for extending marriage equality to non-citizens as well as Canadians. Our wedding experience was absolutely wonderful, culminating in a lovely, private ceremony in a park on the Detroit River. We loved how we were treated by the people in the license bureau, which is to say, like anyone else coming in to get their marriage license. No one got bitchy when we sat in the "Newlywed Swing" near City Hall. It really felt good to be treated like so-called "normal" people and not wonder when some homophobic bigot was going to go off on us.

My spouse and I chose to marry in Canada rather than any states that currently have marriage equality. Why? Because we were sick and tired to seeing marriage equality gained either through the courts or by legislation only to see the bigots find a way to end it. Also, we plan to emigrate to Canada, so why not marry there as well?

I like that Canada tries and seems to be able to keep their fundies on a leash. All these fundie types are complaining that they don't have freedom of speech and can't even say they disapprove of homosexuality. I don't know if that is true, but if so, they have brought it on themselves by their ranting and raving and causing people to go out and harm LGBT people. As far as I am concerned someone's freedom of speech stops where my rights and safety are threatened. Way to go, Canada. I wish the United States would follow suit and make it clear that hate speech will not be tolerated any time or anyplace, especially in a church with tax-free status.

I think that any decent person would have been disgusted by that T-shirt. I don't care what these people say--they are haters and bigots. Obviously you are a decent person.

I don't intend to give up the fight for marriage equality, nor the hope that one day, LGBT people will have the same right to marry as heterosexuals. By the time that happens, though, I will probably be in Canada, which is where my spouse and I wish to go--no matter what happens over here.

[foxfeet]

7. Thanks, gcomeau. I admire your self-restraint.

(How Canadian!) But, really, you could let loose and smack one of 'em occasionally.:hi:

[Zhade]

8. Cool. Hopefully all the old bigots will die the fuck off soon.

Sorry, I don't fucking care about people who think I'm a second-class citizen.

[IndianaGreen]

9. K&R...and thanks!

I am still pissed off! :grr:

[GreenFiles]

10. As people age, they'll become more conservative

It's not exactly generational, but more age related. Older people tend to "find religion" as the end of their life nears.

[gcomeau]

11. See response #6.

More conservative than they are now, probably. As conservative as what we consider conservative to be today... unlikely.

The original point stands, as today's older social conservatives drop off the voter rolls to be replaced by the new generation of voters this particular war is going to be won by our side. I have zero doubt about that.