Estimates of yearly flu deaths are misleading, usually too high, CDC says

[Elmore Furth]

Over the past 30 years, the number of annual flu-related deaths in the United States has ranged from a low of about 3,300 to a high of about 49,000. The usual quote of 36,000 deaths per year is misleading.

Most reports about seasonal influenza cite an average of about 36,000 deaths in a typical season, but that number is both too high and grossly misleading, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday.

The actual average is a little over 23,000, the agency reported in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. But even that figure is misleading, the report added, because the actual numbers have ranged from as low as 3,300 deaths up to nearly 50,000 over the last 30 years. The period covered in the analysis goes up to 2007 and does not include last year's H1N1 influenza pandemic.

"There is no average flu season," lead author Dr. David Shay of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said in a news conference. The number of deaths "can vary dramatically" from year to year, Shay said.

When an H3N2 strain predominates, the number of deaths typically is about 2.7 times higher than in years when an H1N1 strain predominates. Researchers are not sure why that is, but it occurs at least in part because the H3N2 virus mutates more rapidly. "Even if you have been sick with it in the past, you are more likely to get a subsequent infection," Shay said. It also tends to make more older people ill.

Figures on flu deaths are misleading, usually too high, CDC says

[SheilaT]

1. Well isn't that interesting.

I do get sick of the predictions of another great influenza pandemic each and every single year. It's been going on for about ten years now, and I sincerely wish that a little more common sense would start to prevail.

[HuckleB]

2. Every year?

Can you prove this grand generalization of yours?

BTW, what would "common sense" prevailing look like?

[SheilaT]

3. My generalization is based on the fact

that every year for some time now as flu season approaches there are many pieces in various media -- including many, many threads here on DU -- screaming that the end is near, that the Great Flu Pandemic has just about arrived and we are all doomed, doomed, doomed.

Okay, so I exaggerate a little. But only a little. For decades now I've grown tired of the constant drumbeat that an epidemic more or less exactly like what happened in 1918 is about to happen again. I keep on saying, no, it's not. I offer one small reason why. In 1918 many, maybe most, households in this country did not have running water. Routine hand-washing didn't really exist. Today, the very vast majority of homes have running water and routine hand-washing really is routine. And routine hand-washing is probably the single greatest improvement in public health ever. Not that other things like anti-biotics and vaccinations haven't been wonderful.

Plus, of course a reasonable percentage of the population actually do get flu shots. Flu shots didn't exist in 1918.

I have actually been known to say that if some terrible disease springs up and kills lots and lots of people it will come from some where we just weren't looking.

edited for spelling.

[HuckleB]

4. Actually, you exaggerate a great deal, as your response shows.

[laconicsax]

5. So your generalization is based on that same generalization?

Could you actually back up your claim of annual flu pandemic hysteria?

[SheilaT]

6. All I can say is that every single year without

fail there are many, many hysterical threads about flu.

Astonishing that you have never noticed them yourself.

[laconicsax]

7. There are two possible explanations:

1) You're wrong.
2) You're the only one here who has noticed these annual hysterics.

Since you refuse to back up your claim with anything more than "I know I'm right!" I'm leaning toward option one. I could, of course, be persuaded to see things your way if you could substantiate your claims.

If there really are a lot of these threads, it shouldn't be too hard to prove it.

Edit: Remove an accidentally pasted large graphic still in my clipboard.

[SheilaT]

8. Just because I don't feel like

tediously searching out old posts doesn't mean I'm not remembering correctly.

Just pay attention starting in a month or two.

[HuckleB]

9. I doubt that very much.

http://www.90percentofeverything.com/2010/03/16/the-reconstructive-nature-of-human-memory-and-what-this-means-for-research-documentation/

[laconicsax]

10. I'm sorry you can't be bothered to substantiate your own claims. n/t