Global warming 'past the point of no return'

[dweller]

By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Published: 16 September 2005

A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical threshold beyond which the climate may never recover. Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.

They believe global warming is melting Arctic ice so rapidly that the region is beginning to absorb more heat from the sun, causing the ice to melt still further and so reinforcing a vicious cycle of melting and heating.

The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a "tipping point" beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice and with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea levels dramatically.

Satellites monitoring the Arctic have found that the extent of the sea ice this August has reached its lowest monthly point on record, dipping an unprecedented 18.2 per cent below the long-term average.

Experts believe that such a loss of Arctic sea ice in summer has not occurred in hundreds and possibly thousands of years. It is the fourth year in a row that the sea ice in August has fallen below the monthly downward trend - a clear sign that melting has accelerated.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/article312997.ece

dp

[TallahasseeGrannie]

1. Is this the "Day After Tomorrow"

scenario where the salinity changes and all hell breaks loose?

Or am I watching too many disaster movies.

If we are past the point of no return, then what can we do to attempt to adjust to this?

[julianer]

2. We must start talking about

how we are going to survive the coming catastrophe. If we don't we will all be left helpless, as we now know.

[Team44Car]

3. For some reason, I thought the tipping point was 25 years off

Looks like it's arrived ahead of schedule

[Tesha]

9. What makes you think there's just one? :-(

The slippery slope down into Hell can have more than one inflection
point, and we can trip more than one effect that provides positive
feedback to global climate change.

Tesha

[tex-wyo-dem]

4. Don't want to sound like an alarmist, but global warming...

will make every other disaster scenario and political issue (with the possible exception of total nuclear annihilation) look like child's play.

It will affect every person and every species on this planet and it's coming sooner than everyone thought.

And there are no easy answers.

[Meldread]

5. Here is a worst case (as seen by the Pentagon) scenario:

Check it out here: http://www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climatechange.pdf

Some highlights:
* As temperatures rise during this decade, some regions experience severe storms and flooding. In 2007, surging seas break through levees in the Netherlands, making the Hague "unlivable."

* By 2020, after a decade of cooling, Europe's climate becomes "more like Siberia's."

* "Mega-droughts" hit southern China and northern Europe around 2010 and last 10 years.

* In the United States, agricultural areas suffer from soil loss due to higher winds and drier climate, but the country survives the economic disruption without catastrophic losses.

* Widespread famine in China triggers chaos, and "a cold and hungry China peers jealously" at Russia's energy resources. In the 2020-2030 period, civil war and border wars break out in China.

* In a "world of warring states," more countries develop nuclear weapons, including Japan, South Korea, Germany, Iran and Egypt.

* "Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life… once again, warfare would define human life."

* Europe and the United States become "virtual fortresses" trying to keep out millions of migrants whose homelands have been wiped out by rising sea levels or made unfarmable by drought.

* "Catastrophic" shortages of potable water and energy will lead to widespread war by 2020.

Directly from the report:
Europe. Hit hardest by the climatic change, average annual temperatures drop by 6 degrees Fahrenheit in under a decade, with more dramatic shifts along the Northwest coast. The climate in northwestern Europe is colder, drier, and windier, making it more like Siberia. Southern Europe experiences less of a change but still suffers from sharp intermittent cooling and rapid temperature shifts. Reduced precipitation causes soil loss to become a problem throughout Europe, contributing to food supply shortages. Europe struggles to stem emigration out of Scandinavian and northern European nations in search of warmth as well as immigration from hard-hit countries in Africa and elsewhere.

United States. Colder, windier, and drier weather makes growing seasons shorter and less productive throughout the northeastern United States, and longer and drier in the southwest. Desert areas face increasing windstorms, while agricultural areas suffer from soil loss due to higher wind speeds and reduced soil moisture. The change toward a drier climate is especially pronounced in the southern states. Coastal areas that were at risk during the warming period remain at risk, as rising ocean levels continues along the shores. The United States turns inward, committing its resources to feeding its own population, shoring-up its borders, and managing the increasing global tension.

China. China, with its high need for food supply given its vast population, is hit hard by a decreased reliability of the monsoon rains. Occasional monsoons during the summer season are welcomed for their precipitation, but have devastating effects as they flood generally denuded land. Longer, colder winters and hotter summers caused by decreased evaporative cooling because of reduced precipitation stress already tight energy and water supplies. Widespread famine causes chaos and internal struggles as a cold and hungry China peers jealously across the Russian and western borders at energy resources.

Bangladesh. Persistent typhoons and a higher sea level create storm surges that cause significant coastal erosion, making much of Bangladesh nearly uninhabitable. Further, the rising sea level contaminates fresh water supplies inland, creating a drinking water and humanitarian crisis. Massive emigration occurs, causing tension in China and India, which are struggling to manage the crisis inside their own boundaries.

East Africa. Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique face slightly warmer weather, but are challenged by persistent drought. Accustomed to dry conditions, these countries were the least influenced by the changing weather conditions, but their food supply is challenged as major grain producing regions suffer.

Australia. A major food exporter, Australia struggles to supply food around the globe, as its agriculture is not severely impacted by more subtle changes in its climate. But the large uncertainties about Southern Hemisphere climate change make this benign conclusion suspect.

---

In this scenario, we can expect alliances of convenience. The United States and Canada may become one, simplifying border controls. Or, Canada might keep its hydropower—causing energy problems in the US. North and South Korea may align to create one technically savvy and nuclear-armed entity. Europe may act as a unified block – curbing immigration problems between European nations – and allowing for protection against aggressors. Russia, with its abundant minerals, oil, and natural gas may join Europe.

In this world of warring states, nuclear arms proliferation is inevitable. As cooling drives up demand, existing hydrocarbon supplies are stretched thin. With a scarcity of energy supply – and a growing need for access -- nuclear energy will become a critical source of power, and this will accelerate nuclear proliferation as countries develop enrichment and reprocessing capabilities to ensure their national security.

China, India, Pakistan, Japan, South Korea, Great Britain, France, and Germany will all have nuclear weapons capability, as will Israel, Iran, Egypt, and North Korea. Managing the military and political tension, occasional skirmishes, and threat of war will be a challenge. Countries such as Japan, that have a great deal of social cohesion (meaning the government is able to effectively engage its population in changing behavior) are most likely to fair well. Countries whose diversity already produces conflict, such as India, South Africa and Indonesia, will have trouble maintaining order. Adaptability and access to resources will be key. Perhaps the most frustrating challenge abrupt climate change will pose is that we’ll never know how far we are into the climate change scenario and how many more years – 10, 100, 1000 --- remain before some kind of return to warmer conditions as the thermohaline circulation starts up again. When carrying capacity drops suddenly, civilization is faced with new challenges that today seem unimaginable.

[PATRICK]

6. I would rather have another source

with less rosy glasses for the US fate and less surety about war for everyone else. The smell of bias, the smell of war.

I thought a relapse into an ice age of even minor severity would cripple the US ability to feed itself at a time when energy resources are tapping out.

In fact, let the Pentagon worry about its submerged naval docks and not the Latino Menace.

[mainegreen]

8. Good read. Thanks for the link! nt

[Dogmudgeon]

7. It will be a "slo-mo" catastrophe

None of it will happen suddenly, but the "Day-After-Tomorrow" scenario will be played out over one, two, five decades. Or more.

New York may be entombed by massive blizzards -- off-and-on for a century or more, before any Big Freeze become organized enough to establish a true Glaciation.

The main progress will be marked by a series of increasingly intense and unusual weather events, like this year's hurricane season. I also think that this summer's Arctic weather was highly anomalous, since it was often warmer above 80N latitude than 60N-75N latitude.

I think we'll also see the development of an Arctic hurricane zone in a few years. The North Pole is an ideal area for the development of a short-term tropical zone as the result of a greenhouse-gas fueled temperature inversion.

Keep in mind, too, that all this is just a badly-edumacated guess on my part, but I made it from following some of the weather trends already in place.

And hopefully, I'll be completely wrong.

--p!