Case Fatality Rate of Meningococcemia-like Disease and Bird Flu

[pandemic_1918]

Case Fatality Rate of Meningococcemia-like Disease and Bird Flu

Recombinomics Commentary
January 11, 2005

>>The Ministry of Health, Philippines has reported a total of 33 cases and 19 deaths, case fatality ratio of 58%, of a meningococcemia-like illness in Baguio City.. A total of 8 cases has been confirmed by blood culture as Neisseria Meningitidis A. However, the clinical presentation and the high case fatality ratio observed are unusual in epidemic meningococcal disease. Therefore, further epidemiological and laboratory investigations are needed to better characterize the cause and extent of the outbreak.<<

Today's comments by WHO highlight the high case fatality rate for the meningococcemia diagnosed disease in Bagio City and surrounding locations such as Sagada in the Philippines. The case fatality rate of 58% is similar to the bird flu rate and the WHO commentary notes that the death rate and clinical presentation are unusual. The disease is now being called meningococcemia-like.

The location of Bagio City, the recent curious WHO warning on bird flu, the timing of the outbreaks last year and this year, as well as the ability of avian influenza to become neurotropic are causes for concern.

These concerns are heightened by the ability of the meningoccemia-like illness to be easily passed from human to human.

[pandemic_1918]

1. Human to Human Transmission of Bird Flu

This may be the biggest story in a very long time.

Here's the WHO press release

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2005_01_11/en/

Here's more on the disease

http://news.google.com/news?q=Meningococcemia&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

I won't comment on the board police.

[SnowGoose]

2. Would you care to elaborate?

I don't get the connection you're making between "bird flu" and Neisseria meningitidis. Is there something besides a similar case fatality rate that links the two?

If my understanding is correct, humans are the only natural host for N. meningitidis.

It's an interesting post, I'd just like to understand the point you want to make.

[pandemic_1918]

3. Secondary Infections

Most of the meningococemia infections are negative for Neisseria meningitidis. Thus they are now called meningoccocemia-like. However, these are probably avian influenza with a few secondaries of meningococcemia. The case fatality rate is 58% and the clinic picture is cloudy. One physician said the most recent cases were typhoid Pandemic flu in 1918 had several presentations and was mistakenly called cholera, Dengue Fever, and typhoid.

However, H5N1 can be neurotropic and it generates a case fatality rate of about 70%, similar to the meningococemia-like rate.

Yesterday WHO warned of bird flu and today they admitted something was wrong with the clinical presentation and case fatality rate.

My guess is its efficient human to human transmission of avian influenza

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01110507/Efficient_Human_Human.html

and preparedness will be too little too late

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01110508/Preparedness_Late.html

[SnowGoose]

4. thanks

Here at the University of Michigan, we've got a big symposium coming up in about 2 weeks on the next global influenza pandemic. I've been interested in the broad area for a while.

Thanks again for your reply.

[pandemic_1918]

5. Case Fatality Rates

Yes, I saw that. In two weeks the news from The Philippines should be well known. Today DOH broke out the case fatality rates. Confirmed cases are 25%. Unconfirmed are 68%. These unconfirmed cases are almost certainly avian influenza with efficient human to human transmission. This will be a VERY big problem that has been covered up for almost a year

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=meningococcemia+bird+flu&ie=UTF-8&scoring=d&start=0&sa=N

[pandemic_1918]

6. More Cases

Cases on Meningiococcemia continue to rise. Over 100 throughout Thailand


http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=h5n1+meningococcemia