Astronomer Predicts Alien Contact By 2025 - Nat. Geo. program to air Nov.

[Dover]

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Wireless Flash) -- A lot of people are skeptical about aliens, but qualified astronomers think otherwise.

One of these astronomers, Seth Shostak -- an astronomer at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) -- believes we will make contact with the little green men by 2025.

He says we will make this connection by either light signals from our increasingly powerful telescopes or by broadcast waves.

Still, Shostak says there is "no possibility" of us and aliens coming face to face "a la" "Mars Attacks" in the near future.


That's because "it's so difficult to travel between the stars" in a short amount of time, Shostak says, and no matter what kind of technology we or the aliens ever possess, you still "can't beat the laws of physics."

Shostak's claim, and those of other astronomers, will be seen on an upcoming documentary, "Naked Science: Alien Contact", which airs Nov. 24 on the National Geographic Channel...cont'd

http://www.ncbuy.com/news/2004-11-19/1011129.html

[NVMojo]

1. aren't the neocons in this category? Aliens?

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Unfortunately NO

I wish, that would explain them, but NO, they are Straussian, but not Aliens

[cavanaghjam]

6. No

neocons are the missing link - no humor, no imagination.

[struggle4progress]

15. Didn't the 700 Club come here after being expelled from their planet?

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. You know while readng a lot of physics for the

Sci Fi game we are writing, I came across this little thing called String Theory... that may be the way to break the laws of Einstenian Physics, but taht is just me

[cavanaghjam]

3. This sounds like sci fi

but anyone who thinks intelligent life hasn't developed elsewhere in a universe far older than our relatively young sun can't do math. There are whatever-number-is greater-than-trillion stars out there.

Speaking of S.F. - "Calculating God" is well worth the read.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. I have two words for the math impaired

DRAKE EQUATION... trust me, we are young'ins when you plug iin the numbers.

[cavanaghjam]

9. Now

I have to go look up Drake Equation. Thanks a lot. This curiosity'll get me in trouble some day. I mean get me in trouble again some day.

[NNadir]

12. Nonsense. The Drake equation variables are almost all unknowns.

The only way we will be able to determine them is to contact aliens to do a survey of the Drake values.

It's cute, but it's meaningless.

As for the SETI astronomer, I don't put all that much more credit in his prediction than I put in the Jehovah's Witness's prediction that Jesus will arrive before the end of World War II.

[RandomUser]

22. I"ve got two other words for the Drake Equation

Fermi Paradox. The Drake Equation doesn't work unless you account for the Fermi Paradox. And some of the suggested methods of reconcilation, such as extinction level events, are frightening.

[pmbryant]

23. Fermi Paradox doesn't seem to be much of a paradox

I had completely forgotten about that, but when I looked it up, memory returned somewhat.

Fermi Paradox

The paradox can be summed up as follows: The commonly held belief that the universe has many technologically advanced civilizations combined with our observations that suggest otherwise, is paradoxical, suggesting that either our understanding or our observations are flawed or incomplete.

What reason do we have to believe that either our understanding or our observations are perfect and complete?

None, I say, so no paradox here.

--Peter

[RandomUser]

24. It is a paradox with respect to the Drake Equation being used

The crux of the argument is that it doesn't matter how rare the number of alien civilizations (as given from the Drake Equation). Even if you have very few of them, they should have colonized all of the universe by now, even when you incoporate very modest rates of expansion.

http://c2.com/cgi/wiki?FermiParadox

Let's look at the second point first: aliens cannot get here. After all, perhaps they come from the other side of the galaxy, or even from another galaxy. Well, Earth is about 32,000 LY removed from the galactic center, so 64,000 LY would be the distance to the other side of the galaxy. That takes 64,000 years when travelling with the speed of light.

OK, let's suppose that one alien civilization actually manages to build a colonization ship; not one like in StarDreck?, but something like we might build ourselves in a couple of centuries: it goes veeery slow compared to the speed of light, so it arrives only at its destination after about 1,000 years. OK, so now we are there, and the next question is: when will the new civilization build its next vessel? Well, we give them time to fall back to stone age a couple of times, so let's say: 9000 years, which has the advantage to add up with the previous number to 10,000 years. OK, so I pull these number from my *ss, but I hope that I'm somewhat convincing that if a civilization is capable of starfaring at all, 10,000 years might be a reasonable time from launch of ship to planet A to launch on A from ship to B. In other words, 10,000 years would be a rough estimate for the time it takes to double the total number of colonized planets. We all know that exponential growth is too optimistic; after a negligible amount of time, all close-by systems have been colonized and expansion happens only at the surface of the sphere containing the colonized star systems. You then launch to a very-close-by system (of course), say 10LY away. So it takes 10,000 years to cover 10LY, in other words: expansion goes at one thousandth of the speed of light. That still means that you can be here from the other side of the galaxy in a mere 64 million years. That means that if the dinosaurs had spacecraft, they would be at the other end of the galaxy by now. If someone else had spacecraft at the time of the dinosaurs, they would be here by now.

So this strongly suggests that we are really alone in the galaxy. Well, it's ours then, isn't it? Just let's see what we have. A run-of-the-mill galaxy like ours is 100,000LY in diameter and has a center of 10,000LY. It contains mostly ordinary stars (about 10e11 or 100 (American) billion stars). In the center is probably a black hole of about a million solar masses. So that's ours! That's 20 star systems for every person in the world. And then we still have the two Clouds of Magellan: they are a mere 169,000 respectively 205,000 LY away, so sufficiently close for a visit. But wait! What about those nasty Andromedians? Andromeda (M31) is slightly more than 2 million LY away: If there were star-faring Andromedians back when the Earth was trying to evolve algae, they would be here by now. So Andromeda is probably either only "recently" colonized or still virgin terrain, so we could take that, too. And the rest of the Local Group: the whole cluster containing the Milky Way, Andromeda, 7 other big spiral galaxies like ours and some 30 small elliptic ones. Total radius: 6.5 million LY. Peanuts for any sufficiently advanced society.

Of course, the Local Group is, unfortunately, one of the tiniest clusters around. Our closest neighbor, the Virgo cluster, is some 60 million LY away, and it contains thousands of galaxies. Definitely worth going there. Another one is in Coma Berenice, and lies 450 million LY away. It contains about 800 galaxies. The Local Group and Virgo, together with some 100 smaller clusters, form a so-called supercluster, with a total radius of 300 million LY.

What reason do we have to believe that either our understanding or our observations are perfect and complete?

Exactly, as per your statement, there is no reason to believe the Drake Equation as it stands, or the values accorded to the variables, is in any way correct. That is why the Fermi Paradox is used as a way to "disprove" the Drake Equation. (Not really disprove as such, but require the alteration of the equation in such a way as to account for it -- such as the inclusion of extinction level events to prevent the spread of intelligent life. And it most certainly cast doubt on the use of the Drake Equation to prove the existence and abundance of Alien life, as mostly seems to be the case when the Drake Equation is brandied about.)

(edited to cut down quoted text to four paragraphs as per DU rules).

[pmbryant]

25. Well, the Drake equation's just kind of a lark, I think

Not really to be taken seriously given the huge unknowns in just about every parameter.

But there's a hell of a lot of unknown assumptions built into the scenario presented to demonstrate the "paradox" as well (such as, why assume civilizations expand into the universe? why assume any being has the desire or ability to endure/survive interstellar journeys of thousands of years or more? etc), so I still disagree with the idea that it is a paradox of any sort.

--Peter

[RandomUser]

26. Exactly

The Fermi Paradox is one such way to illustrate the fallacy of using the Drake Equation to "prove" the existence and abundance of alien intelligent life, and that we'll eventually run into one.

[On the Road]

28. One Thing Estimates of Alien Lift Often Don't Take into Account

is that the sun is a third-generation star. During the first generation, the universe was almost completely hydrogen. Heavier elements were formed from the first two generations of stars. Therefore, the age of the earth is a better estimate (5 billion years) for the beginnings of life than the age of the universe (14 billion).

Then you have to take into account the time required for life to evolve. If humans are any indication, intelligent life is so complex that it's unlikely it could develop in significantly less time. So I would think that other life forms are developing pretty much on the same time scale, perhaps more slowly. A few million years off, maybe, but not a few billion.

The other thing to take into account is that, if there are other civilizations, we won't be able to see them unless they have created technology on a scale which would be detectable from light-years away, which I'm not even sure humans have developed yet.

And if their technology is detectable at a distance, they would have to be close enough for light or energy to have travelled here. The light from all those distant galaxies is many billions of years old, and unlikely to contain evidence of advanced civilizations.

None of this discounts the idea of extraterrestrial life. But it does suggest it's less likely to be detected anytime soon.

[benburch]

4. OK, as a not-quite-qualified astronomer...

It is possible but not likely.

If we look long enough, we probably shall find other intelligent critters in the vastness, but I think this universe is far more hostile to our form of life than we give it credit for.

If I had to guess, there are one or two other civilizations capable of communicating existing in our galaxy. If they are as scarce as I believe, the search could take a long time.

[tmooses]

8. Well we know that will never happen, it runs counter to the creationalists

n/t

[Dover]

10. AYKROYD BECOMES UFO CONSULTANT

AYKROYD BECOMES UFO CONSULTANT

THE BLUES BROTHERS star DAN AYKROYD has been appointed a Hollywood consultant for a Unidentified Flying Object (UFO) network.

The Canadian actor is now the man film-makers go to when they're making movies on alien spacecraft, after he was given his position by the MUTUAL UFO NETWORK (MUFON).

And Aykroyd admits he's thrilled with his new role, because he's long held a passion for the subject.

He says, "What I like about it (is) it's entertaining and now the little alien head you see everywhere. It's as big as the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus, the Tooth Fairy. It's entered our mythical culture, in a very strange way. Kind of almost replacing elves and fairies from the turn of the century, so that's really what fascinates me."

He adds, "There's footage (on MUFON's website) of some of the stuff that we're getting out of California, some objects that are very credible...cont'd

http://paranormal.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http://www.contactmusic.com/new/xmlfeed.nsf/mndwebpages/aykroyd%2520becomes%2520ufo%2520consultant

[moggie]

17. He's on a mission from God!

It's 106 light years to 109 Piscium, we've got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark, and we're wearing sunglasses.

[Johnny Noshoes]

27. LOL

Let's just hope the Vogons don't shown up.

"Our problems are man-made, therefore they may be solved by man. No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings." — John F. Kennedy

[Algorem]

11. Shostak's on Coast to Coast next three hours?,

http://www.coasttocoastam.com

[pmbryant]

13. Personal opinions

Shostak's reasoning isn't explained, but I don't see any scientific basis for either of his reported claims. As far as I can tell, these are just personal opinions from a fellow whose career is centered on this stuff.

[Papa]

14. How many of you are familiar with the UFO incident recently in Mexico?

The Mexican airforce while on a drug interdiction effort caught on film several UFO's. The UFO's were invisible objects that surrounded their plane. They were only able to see them because they had some kind of infrared equipment, and the entire episode was captured on video.

The Mexican Airforce released the video tapes. This seems proof positive to me there is something other worldly out there. I have yet to read or see or hear anything that would contradict or explain what the Mexican pilots saw, and what those invisible objects were that they captured on film.... And this JUST happened within the last year.

I don't think it's that far fectched that there are other beings alive in the universe.

[0rganism]

16. I'm gonna go with the "Calvin & Hobbes" theory of extraterrestrial life

"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us."

[Swede]

19. One night as we were star gazing and I asked my 8 year old nephew

if he believed in aliens. "Of course there are aliens." I asked him how he could be so sure. "Who else is driving all them UFOs."

[FM Arouet666]

18. Wishful thinking

The Seti group tends to be on the optimistic side, from what I can tell from documentaries, science articles etc. I wonder how he arrived at the 2025 estimate. Certainly our technology will be more advanced, but the problem remains, it is a needle in a very large hay stack.

I wish it could be true, the world's religions would have to do some soul seeking, pun intended, when confronted with the reality that humankind is not that special singularity that God created above all others.

[enki23]

20. *somebody* has a hankering for his fifteen minutes...

.

[flaminbats]

21. making contact now is the worst thing we could do!!!

Look at what happened to the Native Americans as America was colonized, look at the declining numbers of dolphins thanks to us..yet they always seem friendly to humans.

Aliens may have extremely advanced technology, cures we don't have, and experience with solving problems we are just encountering. They may also bring deadly new diseases, weapons we can only dream of, and mental powers which make us appear like fleas in comparison.

Any planet civilized enough can probably pick up some of the radio transmissions broad-casted from Earth for nearly a century. Shouldn't we deal with Earth's problems before we open the door to the social problems and economic shortages of other planets with a welcome card?