In Battle, Hunches Prove to Be Valuable

[groovedaddy]

(Why post in "Science?" Scientific studies are being done on this phenomenon and the article does get to that. - gd).

The sight was not that unusual, at least not for Mosul, Iraq, on a summer morning: a car parked on the sidewalk, facing opposite traffic, its windows rolled up tight. Two young boys stared out the back window, kindergarten age maybe, their faces leaning together as if to share a whisper.

The soldier patrolling closest to the car stopped. It had to be hot in there; it was 120 degrees outside. “Permission to approach, sir, to give them some water,” the soldier said to Sgt. First Class Edward Tierney, who led the nine-man patrol that morning.

“I said no — no,” Sergeant Tierney said in a telephone interview from Afghanistan. He said he had an urge to move back before he knew why: “My body suddenly got cooler; you know, that danger feeling.”

The United States military has spent billions on hardware, like signal jamming technology, to detect and destroy what the military calls improvised explosive devices, or I.E.D.’s, the roadside bombs that have proved to be the greatest threat in Iraq and now in Afghanistan, where Sergeant Tierney is training soldiers to foil bomb attacks.

Still, high-tech gear, while helping to reduce casualties, remains a mere supplement to the most sensitive detection system of all — the human brain. Troops on the ground, using only their senses and experience, are responsible for foiling many I.E.D. attacks, and, like Sergeant Tierney, they often cite a gut feeling or a hunch as their first clue.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/28/health/research/28brain.html?_r=1&th&emc=th

[Captain Hilts]

1. The US military spends billions every year trying to train folks to have those 'instincts'. nt

[steven johnson]

2. I believe in intuition -- in a familiar environment

It 5,000 to 10,000 hours to become competent in an area of expertise. You have to trust the guy who's been there and back. It my be Darwinian but survival counts for something.

[Orrex]

3. It would be interesting to hear about the incidence of false positives and negatives

People have "hunches" all the time that aren't borne out, but these are forgotten and discarded. It's the occasional "hit" that sticks in one's memory.