Stephen Hawking's Warning: Abandon Earth—Or Face Extinction

[Ichingcarpenter]

OK..... that's a tad dramatic from what he really said...LOL but he did say this


it's time to free ourselves from Mother Earth. "I believe that the long-term future of the human race must be in space," Hawking tells Big Think. "It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster on planet Earth in the next hundred years, let alone the next thousand, or million. The human race shouldn't have all its eggs in one basket, or on one planet. Let's hope we can avoid dropping the basket until we have spread the load."

Hawking says he is an optimist, but his outlook for the future of man's existence is fairly bleak. In the recent past, humankind's survival has been nothing short of "a question of touch and go" he says, citing the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1963 as just one example of how man has narrowly escaped extinction. According to the Federation of American Scientists there are still about 22,600 stockpiled nuclear weapons scattered around the planet, 7,770 of which are still operational. In light of the inability of nuclear states to commit to a global nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the threat of a nuclear holocaust has not subsided.

In fact, "the frequency of such occasions is likely to increase in the future," says Hawking, "We shall need great care and judgment to negotiate them all successfully."


http://bigthink.com/ideas/21570

[Ian David]

1. Like colonies on The Moon or Mars wouldn't be targeted in a global war. n/t

[Ichingcarpenter]

4. I think Mars would not be a technical target for

local nuke nuts same with the moon.

But the USA could nuke them!!! Go USA, USA, USA.

[Warpy]

2. The part he's missing is that this is our home

and the one place in the universe to which we are entirely suited. Yes, there may be a massive dieoff in the offing, but there have been such dieoffs before and humanity has tenaciously survived the latter ones, as has the planet as a whole. We also need to come to terms with the fact that we might be the rough draft for intelligent life, our belligerent ape genes making us unsuitable for the long haul and that we will only recreate our same problems on any new extraterrestrial Eden we find or create.

Any adult children of chaotic upbringings will tell you the geographical cure is only a temporary fix. We take our problems with us when we move.

[pretzel4gore]

7. the rightwing gene....subhuman, sub- terranean

the rightwing gene has been raising hell since adam and eve times. Rightwingers should be aborted in the womb. After several generations, rightwingers can be allowed in zoos and such....NO....no... Better to shootem all, let god sortem out
:sarcasm:

[NickB79]

17. The problem is that we might not be able to rebuild after a mass dieoff to modern levels

One interesting point I have seen raised is that, should we nuke ourselves back to the Stone Age and spend the next few centuries trying to rebuild society, the concentrated resources we used to get to our current level of technological advancement wouldn't be there anymore. The easy oil reserves have been tapped and mostly exhausted; the easy coal mines have been dug out; the most concentrated metal ores have been mined. What's worse, after centuries of corrosion and decomposition most of the refined materials like ferrous metals and plastics wouldn't even be available to recycle. Our post-apocalyptic descendants would be hit a technological glass ceiling due to a lack of resources.

Even if our species doesn't go extinct, we might be trapped indefinitely at a neo-Stone Age or medieval level of technological advancement.

[Warpy]

18. Would that be so terrible?

Studies of modern hunter-gatherer societies have shown they have a maximum amount of down time, time spent making decorative items, telling stories, or just loafing. Compare that to the rat race we engage in and tell me which life might be the superior one to live.

Going from modern life to a neolithic life overnight would likely be fatal to most of us. However, over time, with the memory of our nerve jangling modernity and its hectic pace fading into cautionary stories to scare children, it might not be that big a letdown.

I wouldn't mind living fairly primitively, after all I'm a Luddite who has a spinning wheel right next to the computer. I don't want to give up shampoo, loo paper and medical science. However, with a transition period during which things could be gleaned from the collapse while people learned how to cope with a new environment, there would be compensation, I think.

[dmallind]

19. Yeah great deal..

"Studies of modern hunter-gatherer societies have shown they have a maximum amount of down time, time spent making decorative items, telling stories, or just loafing. Compare that to the rat race we engage in and tell me which life might be the superior one to live....."

Oh sure I'll gladly go for some extra hours in the week to play around with beads and yack away if all I have to give up is things like running water, temperature control more advanced than open fires, artificial light, reliable pain medicine, dentistry beyond a chisel, sanitary living conditions, food choice and a life expectancy past 40...

I mean I wouldn't want my nerves jangled by the products of thousands of years of civilization when I could just have a perfectly natural life that was nasty, brutish and short (thanks Mr. Hobbes - nailed that one!)

[Warpy]

20. Hobbsie wasn't entirely accurate

because what shortened lifespans was the appalling level of mortality from the usual childhood diseases like measles and whooping cough, diseases we don't even think about now unless some little knot of antivax loons presents us with a cluster of cases.

Still, I did point out that I'd be loath to give up modern medical science and dentistry is a big part of that.

[dmallind]

21. So somehow this primitive limited society with no access to fuels

Will somehow manage to maintain cGMP manufacturing practices to keep supplying medical and dental equipment and drugs so that all those forgotten diseases don't come back?

[NickB79]

22. That's what I was wondering

The only non-technically advanced vaccine I can think of is the original smallpox vaccine that used cowpox scrapings. Everything else would require a degree of technology that, at best, would only be able to produce vaccines in small quantities for the very wealthiest and/or ruling classes.

[NickB79]

23. I guess it depends on how far we fall initially

Look at the collapse of the Roman empire, and the subsequent Dark Ages that existed for a millenia afterward. Even the very basics, such as the manufacturing technique for quality pottery, was lost for centuries. If we can learn anything from history, it's that it is very hard to hold on to knowledge during the midst of a collapse of civilization.

[Jim__]

25. The geopgraphical cure is the only fix if the current geographical position becomes completely ...

untenable.

Even a cursory look at human history and the current state of WMD on earth, tells you that our long-term chances of survival approach nil. But, however small they are, if we spread to new locations, each new location has a multiplier effect on the chance of the human race surviving. The human race being the only conscious intelligence that we are aware of in the universe.

[Warpy]

26. The whole ecosystem collapsed when Mt. Toba blew up

about 74,000 years ago and most of our ancestors were killed. Some did manage to hang on in little pockets of survival, though, and now there are 7 billion of us.

Given the size of the universe we inhabit and the amazing potential for life in the most hostile areas, I find it preposterous to think ourselves as the lone intelligence within it.

[Jim__]

28. "Some did manage to hang on in little pockets of survival..., and now there are 7 billion of us"

The inference being? We survived one global catastrophe, therefore we don't have to worry about/plan for another one?

[Warpy]

32. You can't plan for something like a nuclear holocaust or

supervolcano eruption. It's stupid to think you can. Survival is often random and doesn't hinge on the suitability of the survivors as much as the dumb luck of their finding some sort of food source to keep them alive until plants start to grow again.

I know we'd like to think we can control things like that but we can't.

[Jim__]

34. That's sort of Hawking's point.

If a nuclear holocaust or a global disaster happens, anyone on earth will be subject to the vagaries of the event. If there are some people who have left the earth to establish an independent existence somewhere else (presumably, multiple elsewheres), the chances are pretty good that this earthly catastrophe will not affect them - at least not kill them off.

[Warpy]

35. Hawking's real point and his sense of urgency

both probably stem from his own impending mortality from the disease that's claimed everything but his mind.

[Hawkowl]

3. I can't imagine a greater galactic catastrophe

Than our immature human species leaving the earth and spreading our sociopathology among the stars. Better for us to either live here and mature into a responsible species, or go extinct.

[txlibdem]

29. Evil Capitalists must not be allowed to spread

Capitalism would be a virulent disease if unleashed upon the galaxy. This must be avoided at all costs. Better we go extinct than poison the cosmos with this evil system.

[Yupster]

5. He's literally true because

eventually the sun will burn out and we'll be extinct.

By then we better be in another solar system or we'll be gonners.

[nickinSTL]

9. does anyone really believe humans

particularly as they are now will be in existence by the time the sun "burns out"?

I find that highly unlikely.

I don't know that any descendant species of ours will even exist by then.

[unblock]

10. the sun will expand into a red giant, making earth too hot to support people

mars will survive; mercury and venus will be swallowed up. the fate of earth is not 100% clear, but most likely it will not survive; in any event, it's extremely unlikely to support life at that point.

but we're talking 5 billion years from now.

long before that, life will have evolved such that our decendents will bear little resemblence to homo sapiens, if we didn't die out for some other reason.

[ladjf]

13. True, but it will be over 500,000 million years before the Sun begins

to "cook" us. I guess we don't have to worry about that for awhile.

[tridim]

6. Hawking has lost it.

Then again, IMO he hasn't really had it since the late 70's.

He's like the Glenn Beck of physics these days.

[Speck Tater]

8. With the empire already in decline there's no way we'll ever go back into space.

As the last of the fossil fuels are depleted it will become more and more obvious that industrial civilization was a brief one-shot phenomenon that can never be repeated.

[Ichingcarpenter]

11. I'm surprise nobody suggestED that Hawking needs

to

INVENT THAT DAMN WARP DRIVE

[Pharaoh]

12. Our current course is unsustainable

even in the short run.............

But finding another planet to fuck up is hardly the solution :freak:

[ironrooster]

14. Unfortunately, Hawking is misguided -

I just hate shit like this. It's not going to be death by Nuke.

What is going to happen is (at least)3/4 - and probably more, of the pop are going to DIE because food shortages due to global warming, and things will actually get a bit better collectively for everyone down the road (yeah, Cormac's road). Oh sure, we could have avoided this mess we're in - and enlisted intellects of Hawking's calibre to solve the energy crisis - but "black holes" were so much more compelling.

To top it off - just where the fuck are we supposed to go - and when? Even if we could colonize another planet - it could only be a minute percentage of the population - would there be a lottery? Or, maybe we could use electronic voting to sort it out huh? Or maybe it's just assumed that only the elites would go. Sorry but FUCK THAT.

What a bunch of cack.

The problem with Hawking's comment is that it supports this idea that there is a choice - but we are past that fork in the road.

In summary, merely learning to CAN FOOD and shoot straight is more important than anything Hawking has to say at this point.

[sendero]

16. Geek fantasies..

... are all well and good, but right now we have some real earthbound problems to solve :)

[txlibdem]

31. There is one single root cause of all the destruction you describe

The main reason there would be food shortages is because there is no logic or reasoning as to where food is grown, nor how it is grown. Then for whatever food is produced, the prices are unnecessarily inflated due to each hand it passes through adding onto the price so they can have a profit. By the time the food reaches to people who most desperately need it they may not be able to afford it. Then in distressed regions (which will become larger and more widespread as GW continues) the thugs with guns wind up stealing or hording so they can personally profit off the misery of the poor. The greed of the few will always cause the misery of the masses.

The only solution is to end the evils of capitalism and outlaw money worldwide. Step 2 is to have a single governing body that has at its disposal all the available natural resources of the world as well as enough manpower to utilize those resources for the benefit of all mankind. All persons receive an equal share of the products of the labor force. This is the only way we will survive the coming crises of peak oil, water shortages, drought, available land, and easily obtained resource depletion.

[pokerfan]

15. I don't agree with abandoning Earth

but I think that two worlds (or three or more) is better than one.

http://www.marssociety.org

[Orsino]

24. I think it's cool. He's already got the wheelchair...

...and is now issuing supervillain-type ultimata.

[Ready4Change]

27. We'll be in trouble before the sun goes nova.

Hawkings concern over nukes is rational. Our stockpiles wouldn't destroy the Earth, and I don't think they could wipe out all life. But they could reduce life to the point that humans, and very complex life forms, won't survive.

But that's not our only threat. The double whammy of Global Warming and Peak Oil (No, they are not mutually exclusive, and it looks like they WILL happen around the same time) may very well knock us back to the stone age. Ok, maybe 'Mad Max' age. Still not a very pleasant prospect. And it is looking ever more like we WILL NOT AVOID THEM. We just aren't working hard enough to stop it.

But even that won't help us when, not if, the Earth get's hit AGAIN by a huge asteroid. It happens periodically, and sometimes they are large enough to wipe out large portions of the worlds species. And we know there are objects in space large enough that, should one hit us, it would pretty much wipe life down to microbes and slime molds.

And aren't a a risk some 'thousands, or millions or billions' of years in our future. It could happen tonight. Actually we are overdue for a big hit. If one was on the way do you REALLY think the powers that be would tell us that it's on the way and they have no way to stop it? Get real. Are you sure your congresspersons aren't being shuffled off to bomb shelters right now?

But wait, there's MORE! There are these objects in space called Gamma Ray Bursters. They make our nukes look like acne. And they happen all the time. The universe is full of them. If one goes off nearby, and aimed at us, life on Earth is just plain gone. The wave of energy from one of these dudes will literally blow out atmosphere away. Along with it goes soil, water and any number of chunky mountains that don't have their roots firmly set. The side of the Earth facing the event just turns molten. Molten rock, bubbling away at hard vacuum. Nice. Even if it isn't that close it could bathe Earth so thoroughly in energies that our ozone layer will just vanish, then bake us next. (Or bake at least the half a globe facing the event.)

Further, while we might spot a big asteroid heading our way, we will have zero warning of a Gamma Ray Burster. It's destruction arrives at the speed of light. By the time we see it, we're done.

So, just in case I miss the chance, I love you all.

All of these are threats WAY before our sun goes nova. Really, don't waste time worrying about that one.

Our species needs space travel. We may not have TIME to achieve enlightenment on this single, isolated world. In this single, isolated galaxy. The universe is a big place. It can handle the shock of us dirtying up a few worlds before we wisen up. But think of what we could become if we do live long enough to become wise. Be a pity to pass up that opportunity.

[Phoonzang]

30. More important question....why does the media keep taking things Hawking has said

REPEATEDLY for YEARS and making it seem like he just said them. This isn't anything new..he's being saying this for years. Same with the "we shouldn't contact aliens" thing. I wish the media would get a fucking grip.

But it gives DU Luddites and human suicidalists to have something to talk about so...I guess it's got some purpose. :eyes:

[TZ]

33. Media does this with a lot of biology

I see all the time stuff like "evolutionary evidence X discovered!". Its usually a study that illustrates a theory thats been around for years and years but isn't really new.