Mystery Chinese disease toll now 17

[pandemic_1918]

Mystery Chinese disease toll now 17

http://www.thecouriermail.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,16038979%255E1702,00.html

25jul05

THE death toll from an unidentified disease has risen to 17 with 41 other people affected in southwest China's Sichuan province, state media said overnight.

The victims, all farmers, came from dozens of different villages around the neighbouring cities of Ziyang and Neijiang, Xinhua news agency said.

All of them showed similar symptoms such as fever, fatigue, nausea and vomiting and later became comatose, it said.

Two of the victims had recovered while 12 were in critical condition and 27 others were stable.

According to a preliminary investigation, the affected farmers had butchered sick pigs or sheep before coming down with the mystery illness, Xinhua said.

[pandemic_1918]

1. Bodies Turn Black - Classic 1918 Pandemic Symptom

Boxun reports bodies are turning black which is classical symptom of 1918 flu pnademic

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=sichuan+sheep+mongolia

[bemildred]

2. Transmitted how? That's the question. mt

[pandemic_1918]

4. Migrating Birds

Migrating birds are transmitting for now, but H5N1 keeps expanding host range.

[bemildred]

6. Migrating birds I can live with.

It's the stuff in your post #5 that makes me think of a nice cabin in the mountains and a years supply of beans.

[pandemic_1918]

82. Death Toll Rises to 31

Latest from boxun puts death toll at 31

http://news.google.com/news?q=boxun%2031%20bird%20flu&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

[Media_Lies_Daily]

9. Countries that are denying human-to-human transmission believe that....

...they can control their outbreaks. They believe that this will enable them to maintain their tourist trade along with their economy.

The first solid public word that indicates Avian Flu is loose among the human population and the tourist trade, as well as the economy, for the affected country will go to "zero" very quickly.

[pandemic_1918]

83. H5 Bird Flu Spreads in Russia

H5 spreading in Chany Lake region in Russia

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=russia+bird+flu+H5N1

[shanti]

17. the "black plague"?

n/t

[smirkymonkey]

35. Holy crap - is this the beginning of another plague?

[LivingInTheBubble]

41. Why link to google

when the only result is a link to your constantly posted recombinomics site. Why not just link directly?

[mike_c]

3. hmmm-- a bit more to the story than you posted....

The World Health Organisation said there was no sign of a massive outbreak of the unknown disease.

"The one reassuring thing here is that from the information we have, the information that China shared with us, this does not appear to be transmitting person to person between people, so it's an environmental source, it's something in the environment that largely farmers came in touch with," WHO spokesman Bob Dietz told RTHK radio in Hong Kong.

"It seems linked to farm animals, either sheep or pigs... but it's not an outbreak in the terms of a disease that is spreading rapidly and is transmissible between human beings."

Back when there was a vietnamese avian flu hotspot you were convinced that the epidemiological evidence indicated human-human transmission-- and you refused to listen to evidence that that was not the case. You claimed that those vietnamese cases were the epicenter of the anticipated pandemic. That turned out to be WAY overblown, and to date any evidence for enhanced human-human transmission is accompanied by evidence for decreased virulence, and in particular for a potential significant asymptomatic population. In other words, your proclamations on the H5N1 outbreaks have been WAY off base so far.

Now this. What's up with that?

on edit: I've also not been able to find any reports that a pathogenic agent is involved in these cases, although that certainly remains one (of several) possibilities.

[pandemic_1918]

5. Human to Humans Transmission of H5N1

The evidence for human to human trams mission in northern Vietnam is overwhelming. WHO kept testing until someone gave them a negative (just like USDA and mad cow). H5N1 has been transmitting human to human in Vietnam since early 2004.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07150503/H5N1_H2H_Asia.html

[acmejack]

8. If the genie is freed, the only question remaining is

how long will it take to propagate through the world's population?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

10. It took the 1918-1919 influenza about six months to go from a....

...relatively mild form in the beginning to becoming a raging pandemic. And that was with a world population of approximately 1.8 billion...we know have a world population of 6.4 billion.

The U. S. had a population of 100 million living primarily in rural agrarian environments in 1918...it is now 300 million living primarily in urban environments.

[mike_c]

14. and yet pandemic_1918 continues to maintain...

...that the necessary mutation/recombination occurred over a year ago. IF that's the case, it's hard to imagine that H5N1 has retained anything like its original virulency.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

18. Do you know how long the 1918-1919 Influenza may have been....

...circulating before it developed a version that could transmit easily from H2H?

[mike_c]

25. as far as I'm aware, no one knows that...

...but that's not the point, is it? Niman is saying that H5N1 made that jump what-- a year ago? Some time ago anyway-- everytime a cluster of B2H cases appears he posts "THIS IS THE BIG ONE!" That, his refusal to listen to competing hypotheses for those clusters, and his association with apocalyptic new organizations like the Genesis Communications Network put a mighty strain on his scientific credibility, at least outside the fields of virology and immunology (I'm not trying to cast doubt on his core work in virology).

[pandemic_1918]

28. Crucial Mutations

There are many versions of H5N1 including milder versions transmitting more easily. The ability to inefficiently transmit human to human happened before 2004 or at the beginning of 2004. Transmission improved in 2005 and the level of silently spreading H5N1 is significant and has been proved in two sets of lab tests. Combing more efficient transmission and lethality may be happening now in China. However, in the next few weeks the H5N1 positive birds at Qinghai Lake in China as were as birds at Chany Lake and Premorie in Russia will start migrating into Europe and southern Asia including India. That is when the combination of high transmissibility and high lethality will be the highest.

WHO has verified but failed to release the data showing increased transmission efficiency in northern Vietnam. They are still testing and will continue to test until more sequences arrive and then they can release their data because the problems caused by the new versions will be much greater. There are not enough dead bodies in Vietnam for WHO to release the data, which would move the pandemic to level 5 or 6 because transmission is now sustained.

[mike_c]

31. if transmission is now sustained...

...why are there not enough dead bodies to prompt WHO to release the data? I presume you have some idea who the individuals are who are hindering that release-- are they the epidemiologists themselves or are they bean counters? If the latter, are you in contact with any of the PI's? Will they corroborate your assertions?

When I exchanged views with you about the 2004 familial clusters in VN, I argued that any h2h transmission was either far too inefficient at that time to sustain a pandemic or virulence was down substantially in the recombinant virus. Now you appear to agree. That's progress-- IIRC you maintained then that a lethal pandemic had already begun. And in your last sentence of the first para you again refer to "high transmissibility," which I haven't seen any evidence for-- is this among the evidence you say that WHO is suppressing?

I'm also aware of the variability of H5N1, but it's ultimately the recombinant(s) that we need to worry about, and recombination will undoubtedly provide a bit of a bottleneck. Of course, the variability makes it tough to know where the outbreak recombination is most likely. My money would have been on Laos, or Cambodia rather than China, but maybe you're right about the potential for the Qinghai Lake lake migrations to vector virus into Europe, but even that won't be particularly worrisome unless they vector virulent h2h recombinants-- again, my money's on human disperal instead.

You must admit that making statements like "H5N1 is already at stage 5 or 6 pandemic," and "the WHO is hiding the data" are troublesome when combined with outlets like the Genesis Communication Network.

[pandemic_1918]

56. Lethal Pandemic?

I believe that post you keep mentioning said the pandemic had begun after the family of five in Haiphong was hospitalized on March 22 and were all H5N1 positive. I don't think a LETHAL pandemic was mentioned. All five recovered. I believe the commentary said H5N1 had become more efficient at human transmission and the pandemic had begun.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03250507/H5N1_Haiphong_5_Pandemic.html

If you have a commentary that says the LETHAL pandemic had begun, please post it (Recombinomics requires no subscription, so you should be able to come up with the post you keep mentioning), but I think it's a figment of your imagination.

[mike_c]

61. ok, let's back up and start over here....

The real cause for public health concern is the likelihood of a pandemic, virulent, highly lethal flu strain. A pandemic of mild flu, with low infectivity or minor symptoms in most victims is certainly cause for some concern, but not for panic. You keep stoking the fires of fear regarding an H5N1 pandemic, but now you say "but I didn't mean it was a LETHAL pandemic?" My head is exploding....

Here is the link to that thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=1349343#1350723

Your first post was:

The Flu Pandemic Has Started

The missing ingredient for a flu pandemic was efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans. The ingredient is no longer missing.

The Flu Pandemic of 2005 has officially begun.

Is this a pandemic of virulent, highly lethal flu, as early indications of human infections with H5N1 indicated, or not? If such a pandemic began in March, why haven't the bodies begun to accumulate yet?

In that thread, I argued that H5N1 was likely to remain virulent, but that neither efficient transmissions from b2h or from h2h had evolved yet. If that's not the case, then perhaps it's virulence is not as high as originally thought, which I suppose is the best possible outcome because it offers hope for acquired immunity. Some of the evidence cited elsewhere in this thread supports that possiblility.

Do we currently have a not so dangerous pandemic underway or is H5N1 as deadly as ever, but the pandemic has not really started yet? You can't have it both ways-- not since March.

[pandemic_1918]

68. H5N1 Virulence

There are many versions of H5N1. In Vietnam alone there is a version in the south that is close to 100% lethal and a version in the north that is much lower. The pandemic has begun in the north, and as expected, you could not come up with your creation of a "lethal" pandemic because as noted earlier, it is a figment of your imagination (with or without spinning head).

Here is a specific commentary that addressed virulence, lethality, and timing from March 31, 2005 (time for a calender check)

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03310507/H5N1_Mining.html

[CAcyclist]

96. Link?

"WHO has verified but failed to release the data showing increased transmission efficiency in northern Vietnam. They are still testing and will continue to test until more sequences arrive and then they can release their data because the problems caused by the new versions will be much greater. There are not enough dead bodies in Vietnam for WHO to release the data, which would move the pandemic to level 5 or 6 because transmission is now sustained."


Sorry, that's just nuts. They report ALL dead bodies - there's no threshold level of acceptable deaths that then go unreported. Do you think we are idiots?
***************************************************

You misunderstand the basic evolution of viruses that jump into new species.

Viruses want to survive. Viruses that kill the host too quickly don't survive in the novel species. They burn themselves out. Examples:EBOLA, Marburg virus.

Therefore, there is an evolutionary advantage to a virus that is less virulent - fewer victims die initially, but the disease can spread much wider. Example: Parvo virus in dogs which jumped species around 1978.

But there is no evolutionary advantage to a virus to lose virulence and then suddenly become more virulent once its been in its new host species for a while. At any rate, a sudden spurt in renewed virulence would be competing directly with the less virulent parent strain. Viruses that infect victims have a tendency to protect its victims from other viruses and the less virulent parent strain would probably be able to act as a natural vaccination anyway. So you can see the difficulty in starting some new pandemic from your scenario.

None of this is to say that I don't believe that bird flu is a high danger and when it hits, the pandemic may be just as bad as the the direst warnings. But it hasn't happened yet and there is no point running around and crying wolf.

Finally, if the bird flu virus H5N1 that has always historically been highly lethal to humans just as bird- to human transmission suddenly acquired human-to-human transmissibility, it would be stunning for it to immediately become a benign subclinical disease. Viruses don't just suddenly reverse all of their mode of operation like that.

[pandemic_1918]

106. Links

I'm not which links you want, because there are quite a few showing cases that are dead, but not counted by WHO. A large list was made of patients in Thailand in 2004. They were identified via their medical records and most were later lab confirmed

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01050502/Thai_Case_Fatality_Missed.html

Most of the index cases in familial clusters in 2004 died by not counted by WHO because they were not tested. The most famous example was written up in NEJM. Index case was living with her aunt. Infected when burying pet duck and mother came from office job in Bangkok to visit daughter in hospital. Mother and aunt developed symptoms after daughter died. Both were positive for H5N1 and conclusion was that they were infected by daughter, who was never counted because she was never tested (was said to have dengue fever). Lots of additional example, but all follow same pattern. Index case has bird flu symptoms and dies. Caregiver (*usually female relative) develops symptoms and tests positive and usually dies. Caregiver counted, index case is not. That was the situation for first case in cambodia. Sister counter, brother wasn't.

However, many more are missed because of false negatives. Follow-up teats indicate almost 80% of cases in southern Vietnam are missed.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03150502/H5N1_Negative_78.html

False negatives were written up in Nature.

Boxun reports suggest case in China have high case fatality rate and may be transmissible based on high numbers or reported cases.

[Bo]

91. You mean stop it with a A- bomb in its tracks?

[mike_c]

11. did you write that article...?

It sounds a lot like the arguments you've been making, which raises the question of whether you're it's author, so I'll ask the question directly: did you write the article you linked in your reply to me?

That was an opinion piece. It offered no data, only a reinterpretation of WHO conclustions that have so far been borne out by events on the ground in Asia. I STRONGLY disagree with the contention-- in the absence of supporting data-- that "This 5-10 day gap between the index case and subsequent infections in family members is the hall mark of familial human-to-human transmission of H5N1." All such clusters could have easily resulted from shared access to bird reservoirs over the time span of the gap, or from differential symptom development rates post-exposure, i.e. still dependent upon bird-human transmission. Again, if your contentions are correct, why have such H5N1 cases been restricted to familial clusters rather than spreading to the general population (unless, of course, H5N1 is losing virulency as it mutates/recombines)? I just don't see any evidence of that happening yet, and calling the WHO "scandalous" does not make it so.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

20. Just curious, but what's your academic and work background in this field?

[mike_c]

26. I'm an ecologist....

My doctoral work was on the epidemiology of plant tospovirus (among other things), but I don't do epidemiological research these days-- I work on biodiversity related issues primarily. I'm an academic scientist at a California State University. I'm READY to be convinced that Henry Niman is correct, but nothing he's said yet has convinced me. And as I said, the links he provides on the Recombinomics site would make any scientist's hair curl.

[pandemic_1918]

29. Bimodal Distribution

You can explain away one or two bimodal ditributions, but ALL are bimodal and the vast majority of teh secondaries are female.

It matters little what you buy. Human to human transmission has been obvious since 2004 to anyone paying attention, including WHO. There just are not enough bodies and their staging scheme only talks about infections, not deaths so they are stuck with sustained human to human transmission of mild H5n1 cases, so they simply stall until the deaths catch up with the transmissions.

[mike_c]

32. fair enough....

"It matters little what you buy." But there's still the fundamental inconsistency of the "obvious" h2h recombinant you speak of- that's been around for over a year-- and the lack of apparent virulence, or at least the lack of piles of bodies. Or viewed another way, the known virulence of the documented cases, but the lack of bodies to account for h2h transmission sufficient to maintain a pandemic. I say it hasn't happened yet. Or is the WHO keeping those bodies hidden somewhere?

[pandemic_1918]

49. Dead Bodies

The pandemic doesn't have to start with dead bodies. It started with H5N1 getting more efficient at transmitting in humans and WHO has clearly buried that data.

As far as human bodies are concerned, China has never admitted to a single human H5N1 case. Third parties report dead and cremated bodies. When WHO went to Qinghai, China said that they only tested two people, who were negative, but the probes might nor were. The other 600 who had been exposed were "dispersed". Its not clear how literally that is.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

7. If you believe anything the bureaucrats at the WHO are publicly....

...saying, that's your fault, not the fault of pandemic_1918.

If you had kept up, you would realize that there are several countries that have hotspots involving Avian Flu/Avian Flu symptoms including, but not limited to, Vietnam, Cambodia, China, New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia, India (although they haven't done any testing for H5N1, the symptoms are the same), Pakistan, and Russia. Several other countries have experienced migratory and/or domestic bird die-offs to include the UK and the Phillipines.

From what can be gleaned from Chinese boxun reports, China has apparently had some very serious problems that they have dealt with by using troops and quarantines. And China still refuses to let WHO have information that WHO has repeatedly requested.

Migratory birds appear to be the major vector, with large numbers dying in China. Within a month or two, if they haven't already gone, these birds will be migrating along northern and southern routes. We'll know soon enough if pandemic_1918 has been getting it correct...why don't you just sit back and watch instead of attacking the messenger?

[Massachusetts]

12. "Migratory birds appear to be the major vector"

The Press and W.H.O., has been irresponsible in the reporting of this "imminent" pandemic. Tamiflu Ain't gonna help!

Let the thinning of the human species begin.(said with MUCH frustration and ANGER)

[mike_c]

13. sorry, I HAVE been paying close attention to H5N1...

...and I FULLY believe that a flu pandemic is likely-- I'm just not buying pandemic_1918's epidemiological thinking yet-- I didn't buy it a year ago and so far haven't seen any reason to buy it yet this year, especially rehashing the same arguments about those 2004 familial clusters in Vietnam. As for the WHO, my natural distrust of bureaucrats doesn't yet extend to the public health scientists who have so far been pretty spot on in their tracking of H5N1. Nobody is trying to minimize the risk of a pandemic-- quite the contrary. However, crying wolf every time an outbreak occurs serves little purpose other than to make it harder to believe it when the real jump to human-human transmission occurs (IF it is accompanied by anything close to the virulence that H5N1 has so far displayed-- THAT is not a given by any means).

[Media_Lies_Daily]

19. I wonder what you'll be posting when this stuff takes off and....

...absolutely no government is prepared to deal with it except in draconian terms.

One person's "crying wolf" is another person's warning alarm.

[mike_c]

27. I've been telling people for the last year that an H5N1 pandemic...

...is likely, and if not H5N1 then certainly another H1 flu variant will explode soon. I am completely aware of the parallels between H5N1 and the 1918 episode. As I alluded to in a PM, I've been pushing my university community health services prepare for this since last October. My complaint is with pandemic_1918/Niman's approach to this, which I think is bad science and especially shoddy epidemiology-- and that doesn't advance the case of scientists trying to do a responsible job of informing the world about this and goading policy makers into being better prepared. Sure, if you cry wolf often enough, you'll eventually be right, but what good will that do if no one believes you because you've cried wolf too many times?

[pandemic_1918]

30. WHO's Data Analysis

WHO has been pretty much behind the curve. Last year they kept issuing press releases about no human genes in H5N1. H5N1 has expanded its host range significantly without reassortment human genes. Now the number of human genes isn't mentioned, but now its mutations and its clear that H5N1 evolves via recombination. Mutations do happen, but its recombination that account for the mutation each season. WHO doesn't believe the western blot data, but has no reason not to believe the nonsense China puts out on Qinghai.

WHO did its USDA mad cow imitation by testing until the got a negative on the 1000 serum samples collect last MARCH. WHO has no plan other than to react to the situation long after the fact. The Tamiflu containment strategy is utter nonsense. Tamiflu works VERY poorly against H5N1 as there recently recent data confirmed (which was obvious from the in vitro test that they themselves (or at least their consultants) published.

WHO also has yet to confirm WSN/33 in the pigs which have THREE viruses (WSN/33, H1N2, and H9N2). WHO is just playing games of catch-up.

They haven't even figured out that migratory birds have been moving sequences around Europe and Asia for decades and new sequences bring new problems each year.

[mike_c]

37. all of this makes complete sense....

So why not simply use these data to focus attention on the actions of the WHO, rather than repeatedly posting assertions that the pandemic of virulent H5N1 has already started?

Have you seen human sequences in H5N1? Any that would facitate transmission or viral reproduction in human cells? God help us if a membrane receptor ligand gets presented on the outside of the virus.

[pandemic_1918]

39. Human Sequences of H5N1?

How would you define a human sequence of H5N1. H5N1 has many human/mammalian sequences

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/0820043/swine_human_signatures.html

[mike_c]

43. you referred to human genes in H5N1-- I presumed you meant...

...recent recombinant sequences-- that's what I was asking about. I wasn't referring to background shared/conserved sequences.

[pandemic_1918]

54. Recombination and Acquired Polymorphisms

The shared sequences arose by recombination. It will be quite obvious in the near term. NIH will get a lesson in the first week in August. These shared sequences do NOT appear because of random mutation. The are acquired via recombination (even PB2 E627K).

Do you think the 2005 isolates in northern Vietnam lost an ARG at the cleavage site b accident? Do you think the loss, which exactly matches the losses in 2003 and 2004 isolates in China and Japan.

Here's a good one. The Qinhai sequences just can out. In one stretch there are 3 polymorphisms over 4 nucleotide positions. This three polymorphisms exactly match three polymorphisms found in a child in Hong Kong as well as European pigs. The child have never been out of Hong Kong, yet she was infected with an H9N2 sequence from a European pigs. The H5N1 sequences ALL had the same three polymorphisms in a H5N1 background. Do you think this was a coincidence or random mutations?

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07200507/H5N1_Qinghai_European_Swine.html

[mike_c]

58. that's interesting....

You're certain the HK child's case was indeed an H9N2 infection? Given that it exibited the same three polymorphisms, isn't it more likely that a single epitope serological detection might have been fooled by a mutation at the epitope (I'm grasping here, I know, and I don't know anything about the marker that was used in the child's case, so just tell me there is REALLY no doubt her infection was NOT H5N1 masquarading as H9N2). This is interesting.

None of this suggests to me that a lethal pandemic began a year ago, but it certainly suggests that H5N1 is getting around-- but again, if so, it isn't yet producing piles of bodies, and the mode of transmission is still most likely bird to human and very inefficient.

[pandemic_1918]

60. H3N2

Sorry, the case was H3N2 (not H9N2 as posted) and matched H3N2 swine isolates from Europe. Match was based on sequence and in PB2 gene, but PB2 gene in Qinghai was H5N1 like, and not H3N2 like.

http://vir.sgmjournals.org/cgi/content/full/82/6/1397

The recombination is based on sequences (and the three polymorphisms were EXACT as was the lost ARG in the northern Vietnam isolates), not serological data.

All of the sequences are publicly available at GenBank and all details in the commentaries can be easily verified by anyone "skilled in the art"

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Taxonomy/Browser/wwwtax.cgi?mode=Tree&id=102793&lvl=3&lin=f&keep=1&srchmode=1&unlock

[smirkymonkey]

36. And you know the Chinese officials have nothing to hide, of course.

[mike_c]

44. if Niman had been correct about the status of the pandemic...

...a year ago, the Chinese government would have been unable to hide all the bodies for some time now.

[pandemic_1918]

57. Mild Cases of H5N1

China claims to have never had an H5N1 human case, but third party reports describe 10 different H5N1 strrains in China, including one that produces mild flu-like symptoms, much like many of the acses in northern Vietnam. Although Vietnam had human to human transmission in early 2004, it wqas not efficient. It became more efficient in 2005, and the 1000 serum samples show this (but WHO won't acknowledge that teh positives are true positives).

You seem to be repeating the same misreprsntations about teh commentaries on Recombinomics. Maybe a re-read would help (no subscription required).

[pandemic_1918]

79. Ebola SZ77

The rest of the story is Ebola SZ77 (Shenzen isolate that infects birds)

http://news.google.com/news?q=ebola&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

[CAcyclist]

94. Thank You

This doesn't look like bird flu at all. Sheep are not a conduit for bird flu.

This could be a variant of leptospirosis or Q Fever or bacterial contamination of the processing plant itself causing sepsis... the possibilities are numerous.

[mike_c]

15. lots of interesting links on the recombinomics site...

...that pandemic_1918 linked in his reply to me earlier, including several links to interviews with Dr. William Deagle, so I'm going to extend the question I asked earlier: pandemic_1918-- are you Bill Deagle?

I'd urge anyone following this thread to Google the good Dr. Deagle. Here's one of the gems that comes up near the top of the search list:

http://www.americaslastdays.com/deagle.htm

BILL DEAGLE - PROPHECIES, DREAMS, AND VISIONS

Kosovo to the New World Order
By Dr. Bill Deagle, vision received April 26 1999

On Saturday, April 24, 1999, I had a supernatural visitation with the angel Gabriel last night. Before I settled in bed to sleep last night, I was in prayer. I prayed in tongues privately, and as always, heard the immediate translation in English of the audible Voice of God.

He said, "If you are obedient and seek wisdom in prayer tonight, I will reveal to you a great revelation. Go to your vitamin cabinet and take two specific nutrient capsules and pray until you are sound asleep, and I will send forth the angel Gabriel from the Throne Room to show you what you must tell My people!!"

In the middle of the night, in the spirit, Gabriel came to me in a dream-vision. He said, "Arise, and come with me to Kosovo. I must show you a Great Revelation, so the people will believe that the Father has sent you to warn his people of many things, for the time is short and judgment is coming as swiftly as eagle's wings."

<snip... it goes on in this vein for some time>

This same Bill Deagle has LOTS to say about H5N1, and lots of that is linked on the Recombinomics site that pandemic_1918 cited. I'm going to look into Recombinomics more directly now. This is beginning to smell....

on edit-- no, now I think you're more likely Henry Niman, president of Recombinomics. That's a whole host of interesting sources that you link on your site.

OMFG-- interviews on Bill Deagle's radio show! This is the same Bill Deagle who posted the info above, and who shills for NutriMedical. Pandemic_1918, IF you are Henry Niman, what are you doing associating with folks like Deagle?!

hmmm-- Genesis Communications Network?! This is getting more interesting by the moment.... Militia patriots, new world order paranoia. Wow! Not where I usually go to get critiques of papers in Science, but hey, to each his own....

[Name removed]

22. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mike_c]

24. then let pandemic_1918 speak for himself....

If he's not Henry Niman, he can say so. That won't change my opinions on either Niman's or pandemic's epidemiological ideas-- nor will it make them any better accepted by the epidemiological community at large-- but I will certainly apologize for misidentifying pandemic if he is not Niman. Here's a comment someone posted in another thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=1349343#1350723

In his real life, pandemic_1918 is a noted molecular biologist of international reputation whose speciality IS the flu virus. He has made several medical breakthroughts.

That sure sounds like Niman to me! Pandemic ALWAYS responds to criticism by posting links to Niman's UNREVIEWED articles, or to newspaper sources (and his interpretations of the events they describe), NEVER to reputable academic journals. I think that's because Niman is in the wasteland on this-- reputable journals don't publish his epidemiological ideas (except as letters, and the only link I found for a letter in Nature has been removed, at least from the online version). They certainly DO publish his virology and immunology work, including a recent paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and I do understand that he has a well deserved reputation in those fields.

[pandemic_1918]

33. Nature Letter Removed?

There are a number of links to Nature and Science news reports, but you need a subscription to see them. Which one do you think is "removed"? Most who read Nature and Science know they don't "remove" stories. They might publish a rebuttal or correction, but they don't "remove" stories.

Are you a bit confused or have you never read those journals?

If you post the title of the "removed" letter, I'll post it here for non subscribers.

Here's a link to the links

http://www.recombinomics.com/in_the_news.html

[mike_c]

38. here's one of the links...

http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/DynaPage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v433/n7028/full/433787a_fs.html&content_filetype=pdf

And you're correct-- I'm searching from my home computer rather than through the university domain and I don't maintain a personal subscription. I interpreted the "Error" response to mean that the letter had been removed, but it might not be hosted publically. I thought only the most recent issue was subscriber limited, but as I said, I usually access through my office computer.

My central question remains-- are you getting any of these ideas past peer review?

[pandemic_1918]

45. Nature News Already Posted

Since you can't access Nature, its hard to do more than paste in the story, but to get the URL for the Nature story you have to go to

http://discuss.agonist.org/yabbse/index.php?board=6;action=display;threadid=20917

where the story is already posted.

So you are saying that because you used a computer that can't access Nature, you assumed that the article was "removed" and posted such nonsense here?

I think WHO could use more scientists with your analytical abilities. They could find WSN/33 in Korea and thought it was "removed" also (or at least was a "lab error"). Actually, the removal appears to be Klaus Stohr who can't talk to the press anymore and no longer heads the WHO flu program.

Here's the "removed" article. which I am sure you have seen since that's where the Nature URL is located

Nature 433, 787 (24 February 2005); doi:10.1038/433787a


Tests in Tokyo reveal flaws in Vietnam's bird flu surveillance

DAVID CYRANOSKI

Cases of avian influenza have been overlooked, new evidence shows.


Efforts to diagnose human cases of bird flu in Asia have been missing the mark, according to studies released last week. The findings have prompted calls for broader surveillance of the virus and a change in testing procedures.

Reanalysis of samples from Vietnamese patients with flu-like symptoms has revealed that some people originally declared free of bird flu actually did carry the avian virus H5N1. And another study has shown that some patients with symptoms other than those usually associated with flu were also suffering from H5N1.

The findings are worrying as they could mean that the virus has spread much more widely than was previously thought. This would, in theory, give the H5N1 strain a greater chance of mutating into a form that passes easily from person to person, potentially sparking a pandemic. Reassuringly, preliminary genetic analyses at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) in Tokyo show that the virus has not mutated greatly since last year.

The recent findings could also lead experts to re-evaluate the severity of bird flu. The death rate for infected patients has so far been very high — 10 of the 11 cases identified in Vietnam since December 2004 have died. But if many more cases are going unidentified, the mortality rate could be much lower.

Samples from the 11 recent cases of bird flu in Vietnam, plus those from some 90 suspected cases that tested negative for H5N1, were recently sent to the NIID for study. About a third of the samples have been examined so far and, of these, seven of the negative results have tested positive, says Phan Van Tu, head of the microbiology and immunology department at the Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Fresh tests in Vietnam last week confirmed four of these positive results.

Part of the discrepancy between labs could be accounted for by problems with the original tests. "Some reagents were not mixed well and the results weren't clear," says Tu.

But for three cases the Pasteur researchers — with NIID researchers observing — reconfirmed their earlier negative diagnosis. This is worrying as it suggests that the Vietnamese test is not sensitive enough to detect all cases. Tu says that the institute now plans to switch to the more sensitive test used in Tokyo and will ensure better training for its technicians.

If many infections have been missed, "suspected cases of human-to-human transmission should be investigated again", says a member of a World Health Organization (WHO) collaborating laboratory. There has so far been only one documented case of probable human-to-human transmission (K. Ungchusak et al. N. Engl. J. Med. 352, 333–340; 2005), but there are strong suspicions that clusters of disease within Asian families may have been transmitted through people rather than birds.

Concerns about H5N1 monitoring efforts have also been fuelled by a study showing that at least one case of encephalitis — a swelling of the brain — in Vietnam was caused by H5N1 (M. D. de Jong et al. N. Engl. J. Med. 352, 686–691; 2005).

Previously it was thought that the only clinical symptom of H5N1 was respiratory disease. As encephalitis is relatively common in Vietnam, this could mean that a broader approach to H5N1 monitoring is needed, says Menno de Jong, a virologist at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, who led the study. The known cases of H5N1 may be just the "tip of the iceberg", he says. Although he notes that in an analysis of a further 100 encephalitis patients, none was infected with bird flu.

Other cases could have slipped through the net if the patients had mild respiratory illness, de Jong says, as only severe cases have been studied. He and his group have now begun a one-year survey to look for H5N1 among 1,600 children in Vietnam with mild symptoms.

In the meantime, many remain critical of current monitoring efforts. Henry Niman is the founder of Recombinomics, a company in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, that traces the molecular evolution of infectious agents. He claims that many cases of possible human-to-human transmission are not followed up properly. And a lack of widespread testing means that H5N1 could be to blame for other outbreaks, Niman says, such as a bout of apparent meningococcal blood poisoning that is ongoing in the Philippines.

There are no plans to test for H5N1 in the Philippines as yet. But the WHO is discussing how to broaden its surveillance of the virus.

[mike_c]

47. yes, I had seen that one-- just didn't know that's where the link...

...ended up. That's part of what I was referring to when I spoke of the confusion engendered by asymptomatic and apparently minor cases.

[pandemic_1918]

50. Links

The link ended up at Nature where the pasted artcile was published. The otehr Nature article on bird flu in that issue also is listed at

http://www.recombinomics.com/in_the_news.html

It was on the WSN/33 in pigs in Korea that WHO couldn't find (they couldn't find the H9N2 either).

[wschalle]

34. You're taking the uncorroborated statement of someone else as truth here

Also, it's not exactly as though your career is in epidemiology, is it? Forest ecology is very thinly related to epidemiology.

While you must certainly be good at reading and interpreting scientific texts, you are clearly out of your field in this matter.

So, who are you exactly, pandemic_1918?

[mike_c]

42. agreed-- I've done some work on plant tospovirus epidemiology...

...mostly from an entomological (vector) perspective, and I don't do that kind of work any longer. I'm currently developing an encephalitis vector project (west nile fever), but again, primarily from a vector biology standpoint. And I'm not even CLOSE to being a virologist! As I said above, I'm quite ready to be convinced-- and pandemic_1918 has provided some interesting additional information in some of his replies to my questions-- but there's still that element of apocalyptic conspiracy theory, and the real propensity to maintain over and over that "THIS IS IT-- THE PANDEMIC HAS STARTED." That's hard to swallow without some additional data.

[pandemic_1918]

48. Pandemic Started

Actually, Klaus Stohr noted on May 5 that the pandemic may have started

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05050502/WHO_H5N1_Pandemic.html

He was looking at the data, but WHO decided they needed more data so they could ignore the positive data and they tested until they got a negative and said they could ignore the positive data and keep on testing (even though anyone paying attention knows the samples were positive and H5N1 was silently spreading in March, 2005 in northern Vietnam.

[zippy890]

62. I ask that you take your personal hostility

elsewhere and stop attacking pandemic. I have found his /her posts to be interesting and educational.

[mike_c]

65. well, it isn't "personal hostility...."

I don't even know the guy, so it's hardly personal. Rather, it's professional scepticism. Comments like the one I quoted in #61 are the scientific equivalent of snake oil peddling. And I came across his association with Bill Deagle while checking out the links that he himself provided. Did you see the Deagle article I quoted in #15? Click on that link and continue reading, then come back and tell me this is all "informative and educational." Pandemic_1918 is spreading his "analyses" via internet message boards and the fundy fringe "press," rather than through the scientific literature-- and if he can cite ANY reputable journal that has published statements like the one I quoted in #61 I will apologize to him immediately. Until then, *I* have a responsibility as a scientist to question his public pronouncements.

[pandemic_1918]

70. Nonsense & Science

The Nature paper was "removed} The pandemic was said to be "lethal" a year ago. These are interesting statements, but not based on reality. You are arguing against your misconceptions of what recombination is, what the beginning of a pandemic is, and who knows (or cares) what else for the good of "science" (which probably has a unique definition also.

[mike_c]

72. show me the money....

One peer reviewed citation that supports your assertions about the WHO, the start date of the pandemic, the current status of h2h transmissibility, or even the data you've cited in this thread. Name one PI who will back up your assertions (send it via PM if you'd rather-- I'll call and confirm first thing Monday morning and maintain confidentiality if that's what you want). You know how this is done, and it's not through web site press releases and the fundy fringe press. I will immediately retract my objections if you can back your assertions up with anything other than unreviewed articles on the Recombinomics web site or media reports based on information you've provided. You know as well as I do that those citations have ZERO crediblity. Most of the folks reading your posts might not know it, but you and I do.

[pandemic_1918]

73. Manila Report

WHO's own Manila report detailed the start of the pandemic as did Klaus Stohr's statements. I have already posted the links. Why don't you e-mail Klaus Stohr and ask him why he said the pandemic may have begun on May 5?

Why don't you post a peer reviewed story on anything that says two positives and a negative test result equals a negative (USDA and WHO backtracking excluded). How about the raw duck blood nonsense where three people drink uncooked duck blood. One develops no symptoms or antibodies, one develops symptoms in less than 24 hours and one gets sick 3 weeks later? Does that sound like common source, as WHO claims (in press releases, not journal articles).

How about a single example of Nature removing a news story?

[mike_c]

76. this isn't about Klaus Stohr...

...it's about your assertions, propogated through web sites, online forums, and the Genesis Communications Network. Good god, I just looked back through months worth of your postings in the DU archives, and you ALWAYS link back to those same articles-- your articles I contend-- on the Recombinomics web site. ALWAYS. No wonder the GCN is the only place you can publish this stuff. No one else who might review your papers believes any of this, do they?

[pandemic_1918]

77. Klaus Stohr's Public Comments - Case Closed

Klaus Stohr was head of WHO's influenza program and I directed you to one of his quotes on the start of the pandemic, which you chose to ignore.

Case closed.

[Name removed]

85. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Henny Penny]

81. I'd hate to see your idea of personal hostility...

question his pronouncements by all means, but don't hound the guy demanding to know his real identity. That seems like harassment.

I am sure that the readers of this board are well aware that it is an informal discussion and not peer reviewed.

[mike_c]

86. unfortunately, his identity is important....

Henry Niman is a respected virologist, but he is also propogating a theory-- based on very bad science-- through some rather shady channels. There's also the matter of disclosure since his company Recombinomics develops flu vaccines and holds patents that are applicable to people's reaction to his message. What it comes down to is that Niman is trying to use science to influence people, but his conclusions are not generally accepted by his peers, for good reason. The science is not sound. That isn't to say he's wrong. He might not be, although I'm even more sceptical than ever.

Pandemic_1918 is preaching that same message, and numerous people on this board are impressed by his obvious understanding of the underlying biology-- but those people are NOT receiving an unbiased scentific perspective. What they're getting is an apocalyptic rant masquarading as real science. As a scientist, I find that extremely irresponsible. Niman's views about avian flu are not finding an outlet through normal professional channels within the scientific community-- which has a responsibility to truthfully inform the public and policy makers-- so he spreads them through internet forums and the fundamentalist fringe press, which is always glad to hear an apocalyptic tale.

Pandemic_1918 has so far been insulated from all this on DU because of the anonymity the message board provides. He has enjoyed greater credibility than his theories deserve because he has not been associated with Henry Niman-- again, this is all about a scientist using his position responsibly-- or irresponsibly.

I suspect that most DU readers are not in a position to evaluate the scientific merit of pandemic_1918/Niman's views. Some of those ideas HAVE merit, and as I said elsewhere in this thread, there is a good chance that events will ultimately converge with Niman's predictions, but that doesn't change the essential irresponsibility of what he's doing-- using bad science to spread fear among people who often cannot critically evaluate his pronouncements, so they're swayed by his apparent authority.

Not withstanding all that, an enlightened scepticism and vigorous debate is a fundamental element of scientific dialog. Personal anonymity is rarely tolerated in the scientific community, and NEVER as a way of hiding from the full history of one's ideas. The kind of dialog pandemic_1918 and I have engaged in here is not unusual-- I've demanded that he provide support for his assertions, and not merely by making more unsupported assertions, which I have not accepted. In lieu of that-- reluctantly-- I asked for a reference, a colleague with knowledge of the circumstances pandemic_1918 describes who will vouch for his version of those circumstances. In particular, if the WHO is suppressing evidence of a burgeoning pandemic, there WILL be investigators willing to talk about that. Maintaining a conspiracy among scientists is like herding cats.

on edit-- I told a good friend recently that tenacity is not necessarily one of my most virtuous characteristics. I apologize if my tenacity in this matter has offended you. I'd also like to emphasize that I might be utterly wrong about everthing I've said in this thread-- about Niman's association with Genesis Communications Network, about his conspiratorial view of avian flu epidemiology, and so on. I might have it all munged up. Obviously I don't think so, but that's what this process is designed to reveal.

[Henny Penny]

87. Sounds more like you are trying to shut him up.....

with a combination of unsupported allegations and smears.

If you feel he is whipping up hysteria in order to sell a product, then say so.
If you feel he is putting forward a theory based on bad science then say so.

You sow as many seeds of doubt as you can about this man and yet you present yourself as the trusted and unbiased observer, blameless even if your assertions are entirely incorrect.

edited for typos

[mike_c]

89. point taken, and I'm sorry if it seems that way....

I'm not interested in shutting anyone up-- only in making sure that what they're saying passes the veracity test, and only because in this case I feel a professional responsibility. I certainly thought I made it clear that I believe "he is putting forward a theory based on bad science!"

You know, folks might not be in a good position to evaluate pandemic_1918's claims without an advanced degree in biology, but they CAN easily followup and check on the other leads I've provided in this thread, e.g. in post #15. Go to the Recombinomics web site and check the media links, then followup with general searches for some of the names, like Bill Deagle (Dr. William Deagle), Genesis Communications, Darrell Smith, and so on. You don't have to rely on me telling you so, nor should you. I certainly didn't mean to imply that you should simply trust me-- but I do think I have a responsibility to share what I've learned. Likewise, I am not at all unbiased-- I'm an inveterate sceptic on my best days!

[Henny Penny]

93. skepticism I applaud.... just bear in mind that what you

have learned may well be based on a false premise.

:-)

[IA_Seth]

95. I appreciate the counter-balance...keep it up! n/t

[CAcyclist]

99. Sorry, I Want Pandemic To Answer The Question

Mike C is not hounding anyone. He is asking legitimate questions.

This board is about finding the truth. It is entirely appropriate to question extraordinary claims. This isn't Free Republic and their contempt for science and logic.

[CAcyclist]

98. There is No Personal Hostility on Mike C's Part That I Can Tell

I think he has been more than fair and more than patient.

[pandemic_1918]

115. CNN Transcript

http://www.recombinomics.com/in_the_news.html

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRI.../28/ldt.01.html

DOBBS: A mysterious new disease has killed dozens of people in China. At the same time, there are rising concerns about the spread of the deadly bird flu in China and other Asian countries. Experts, health experts are now warning it could be only a matter of time before these new diseases spread to the United States.

Kitty Pilgrim has our report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KITTY PILGRIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): One hundred thirty people in China sick from a mysterious pig-borne disease. The World Health Organization doesn't know quite what it is, and the death toll is now at 31. BOB DIETZ, WHO SPOKESMAN: I think the first thing that pops into everyone's mind is avian influenza, and then comes SARS, and are we looking at that sort of situation. Very early in the stage to make any rash judgments, but at this point we don't see that kind of threat looming. But we are watching it very closely.

PILGRIM: The disease comes from eating or slaughtering sick pigs, which is commonly done in rural China. The problem with the new diseases suddenly affecting people around the world is that they are an airplane ride away from anywhere, as in the case of SARS, which infected thousands and killed 800 people globally.

They can turn up anywhere. For example, health officials don't know how three people in a family in Indonesia contracted avian flu and died. The CDC currently has 11 quarantine stations in U.S. airports, with seven more planned to be open this year to be able to screen people if necessary.

HENRY NIMAN, FOUNDER, RECOMBINOMICS: It actually is a flight away by a migratory bird or commercial airline. So it literally can arrive in a matter of days. So there's no really room for error that, once it starts to spread, it can move around the world quite quickly.

PILGRIM: The worry is so great in this country, Congress has had five hearings on the flu this year. Scientists think the bird flu virus could mutate, as all viruses do. And there is thought nearly enough vaccine for the current strain.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PILGRIM: Now, many experts are convinced the next global pandemic could come from avian flu. It is highly deadly. Last year, 109 human cases caused 55 deaths in Asia. And with the new sudden unexplained deaths in Indonesia, the concern is very, very high right now -- Lou.

DOBBS: Kitty, thank you very much. Kitty Pilgrim.

[LivingInTheBubble]

40. I feel suspicious

when all someone's information points back to one site, in this case the recombinomics site. In my mental library it now occupies the same section as rense.com.

[mike_c]

46. it gets even stranger when you follow those links...

...from the Recombinomics site to their various Genesis Communications Network termini, and then search for some of the other stuff that's available about the Midas Report, NutriMedical, Bill Deagle, Darrell Smith, etc. I have no issues with Henry Niman's credentials, but that other crowd is not the National Academy....

[pandemic_1918]

53. Linked Interviews

You might try listening to some of the linked interviews. The interviewers mostly ask questions and they are give scientific replies which are quite verifiable.

The shows offer a vehicle for getting the news out. The hosts pretty much just ask general questions. No conspiracy theories (other than some misinformation by some agencies). Just hard data (with some commentary similar to the posted commentaries under what's new)

[wschalle]

51. If you investigate a bit further, you will see

Niman's postings reference both many of his own postings, but also the information released by media outlets, the WHO, ProMED, and official government releases. Linking back to his own site lets him avoid having to say the same thing over and over.

It's called the internet. Look into it.

All sarcasm aside, think about the vast quantity of work Niman's put into this. Everyone keeps saying that oh yes, there is probably a pandemic coming along sometime in the next few years, but nobody seems to be acknowleging the scope of what will happen. The attitude is very similar to what you feel with a terminally ill relative. It's coming, and there is nothing you, or I, or anyone can do about it.

The reality is that there are plenty of things that can be done about it. Plans can be laid, the public can be educated about how to properly handle an epidemic crisis, and the media frenzy can be defused before it even happens. The more people are educated about the pandemic which, we mostly acknowledge is coming, the less damage the panic will do once the pandemic actually occurs.

-For one thing, after big plagues and epidemics, general hygeine practices become very popular again. People religiously cover their mouths when coughing, wash their hands before they eat, and keep their environment cleaner when they are conscious about disease. While these measures won't stop someone from breathing a deadly dose of flu into your face, just being aware and conscious of it while we head into flu season would reduce infection rates regardless of whether H5N1 explodes this winter.
-Schools could have one day a year to teach proper hygeine and why it is important.
-Offices and corporate environments should recognize that a sick worker is a non-productive worker, regardless of whether they are at work or not. This flu season, bosses should be informed of the risks and should make the decision to send obviously sick and virus-shedding people home to rest and recover.
-Homeopathy does have some merits. These should be investigated fully, as soon as possible.

These messages from Dr. Niman, while very dire and frightening, are getting the word out about the flu.

[LivingInTheBubble]

90. I investigated

And found someone who posts links to google news that only return his own site's page. Why on earth would anyone do that if it wasnt to try and lend credence to a theory that is not deserving of it. I did ask them why they posted such an odd link (post #40) but they didnt reply and rather than get a reply from the Organ Grinder (so to speak) you felt it your place to step in ;-)

Furthermore that link (via google news) leads to their own "Commentary" on which EVERY one of the many links leads to a page again hosted on recombinomics and which again is a "commentary". The only link not to their own pages is to a bulletin board where there is a very very poorly translated article from a chinese site that we have no idea of the accuracy of (is it a chinese rense.com?).

Until they can post real articles to back up their claims and not commentaries on poorly translated articles about chinese people who infected boar meat then it is hard to take them seriously whatever their academic qualifications.

[pandemic_1918]

52. Media Reports

I believe the Recombinomics commentaries have a link at the bottom of each commentary linking the original media report, which represents most of the mainstream media commenting on bird flu.

http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

(you have to click on the blue underlined link to get the linked material to appear)

[gkhouston]

88. I don't go to the recombinomics site, myself

They may be right, but do seem a bit eager to buy into the theory that Doom Is At Hand. (I do believe the pandemic is coming and will be probably be very bad but I think we'd already be in deep kimchee if efficient H2H transmission had started a year ago.) I usually bop over to ProMED mail. It's a moderated site where the contributors are scientists discussing all sorts of disease outbreaks around the world.

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/promed/f?p=2400:1000

[Name removed]

97. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NNN0LHI]

100. I think you may be onto something n/t

[mike_c]

16. Dr Niman-- are you still with us...?

See my previous post. Interesting journey that link sent me on. I think you're a fine virologist and immunologist-- and yes, I've just finished reading a couple of your recent papers-- but dude, I think you've drank a bit too much of the apocalyptic Kool-Aid. BILL DEAGLE?! For god's sake....

on edit-- and Dr. Niman, you know full well how much credence to place in articles written and posted on your own web site, without peer review. I suspect you've had a frustrating time getting your views on H5N1's epidemiology published in mainstream journals.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

21. Dude...I think you should stop trying to insult Dr. Niman every time he...

...posts something to this board. Quite a few of us are very interested in what he has to say despite your remarks to the contrary.

FYI: Dr. Niman has several other boards that he frequents, and has work to do of his own.

If I were Dr. Niman, I would simply put you on "ignore" and stop wasting time responding to your "accusations", such that they are.

[mike_c]

23. yeah, that would be an appropriate response to peer criticism....

I'll recommend that to my colleagues the next time someone criticizes any of my ideas-- no worries, just put them on ignore!

Don't worry, I gather that you can always catch Henry Niman's latest comments on apocalyptic talk radio, e.g. Bill Deagle's and Darrell Smith's shows. And I promise not to show up there and ask questions about the congruence of fundamentalist ravings and doomsday epidemiology.

[ebayfool]

75. LOL, mike_c - you can put on ignore, but you still trip over the ...

'sky is falling' threads & know w/out checking just who is talking! Any luck with getting a straight answer on 'are you Niman or connected to Recombinomics'? I never got a straight out answer on that one http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1422623#1428305 - the ignore button saves you from beating your head against the brick wall, even if it leaves the unwary vulnerable to fear-mongering. If a poster has links to a site that is involved w/vaccine development (& patents), then it should be fair disclosure.

As far as people telling you to 'go away' or shut-up, this is a public discussion forum! Don't you do any such thing - I'm enjoying the display of open discussion, (you have much more patience than I do) which also includes challenge if called for ... this isn't a private fan-site for anyone - including Niman &\or his proteges!

[mike_c]

78. no answer, but I'm convinced he's Niman....

What's so strange about all of this is that Henry Niman really is a solid virologist, and he really is using websites and the Genesis Communications Network to publicize what ultimately amounts to rantings about avian flu (rantings with which events might very well converge, but BAD science nonetheless)-- whether pandemic_1918 is Niman is almost unimportant, really, except that it would settle the question of his relationship with Recombinomics.

[54anickel]

55. swine streptococcus suis

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/stdn/std/Metro/GG25Ak07.html

snip>

The Sichuan Provincial Health Department confirmed on the weekend that an unknown disease had killed nine people and infected 20.

Hospitals in Ziyang city revealed that the patients had been infected by swine streptococcus suis bacteria that has also killed a large number of pigs.

It was reported that as many as 11 patients have died and 20 others are still hospitalized, with 10 in critical condition.

Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow said Sunday China's Ministry of Health notified Hong Kong Saturday about a ``widespread infection'' and that swine streptococcus bacteria was believed to be the cause.

``It is most likely that the streptococcus bacteria has been transmitted to humans and caused death,'' Chow said. ``We have to figure out whether it is a known bacteria or something else. Pig streptococcus bacteria is seldom transmitted to humans.''

[pandemic_1918]

59. Bacterial Pneumonia in Tacheng and Jakarta

The nonsense about bacterial infections has been tried by China in Tacheng and Indonesia in Jakarta.

This is just more ABBF.

[54anickel]

63. Whoa, sorry, just posted an article showing that they are trying to

dispell the notion of it being a mystery.

ABBF?

[pandemic_1918]

67. ABBF

They are not trying to dispel any mystery. They are just citing Anything But Bird Flu (ABBF)

[54anickel]

69. By dispell, I meant trying to calm fears of a mystery by coming up with

something, anything, but a mystery as I don't think a mystery is much more acceptable to anyone than the bird blu.

Cripes you're a defensive type. :hi:

Edit to add:
I just read through ALL the rest of the posts and I can now understand your tone (that I took to be snippy and defensive). Thanks for all of the info, I'm still reading through the links at your site.

[Chicago Democrat]

64. My ancestor survived the 1918 flu, tho the rest of family died...

could my antibodies help other people..


Can men give breast milk?

[mike_c]

66. antibodies aren't heritable...

...and would only be specific to that strain in any event. As to your second question, only if they can get some from a woman....

[NNN0LHI]

101. A couple of questions from a layman here when you have a minute mike_c

I notice that even you believe that another pandemic is inevitable. This worries me a lot because I trust what you say on this stuff.

I am not trying to knock down what you are saying I just want to get a better understanding of this.

I am picturing a huge roulette wheel with billions and billions (sorry Carl) of different colored spaces (benign combinations) and one red space (the pandemic combination) that this flu could possibly transform itself into and cause real problems.

First do I understand this correctly from a simple layman's viewpoint? I understand the numbers are likely not correct, but is the basic reasoning sound?

After I find out the answer to that I may want to ask you another question or two if its OK? Thanks in advance.

Don

[mike_c]

109. Don-- no, that's not entirely correct....

Sorry for the delayed reply-- I was sweating my ass off at a field site the last couple of days.

The way it works is that the virus is currently not very efficiently transmitted from birds to humans and even less efficiently transmitted from humans to other humans. The virulence of the virus once it does infect humans is a bit of an unknown-- the early data suggested VERY high mortality rates, and current data seem to indicate a range of viral strains of varying mortality, but the KEY to the pandemic is infectivity-- the transmission efficiency.

Flu viruses mutate and recombine frequently, incorporating genetic material from one another, from other viruses, and from their hosts. That's why new vaccines are needed every year-- this year's primary flu has undergone changes and is different from last year's.

The longer H5N1 is in contact with humans, or with other animals that share human viruses, like pigs, the more likely it will recombine with a virus that DOES infect humans easily, and which transmits efficiently from human to human. That is the ticking bomb. A human or a pig with H5N1 and some OTHER easily transmitted human virus simultaneously vastly increases the chance for that critical recombination. That's why I think it's likely inevitable. Sticking with your analogy-- the longer H5N1 and last year's respiratory flu (or it's equivalent) share hosts, the more the numbers on the roulette wheel change from green to red.

One outstanding question is "how virulent will the resultant recombinant be?" Two things might influence this. One is that the recombinant might be dramatically weakened by the recombination itself, sacrificing virulence for infectivity. That is a roll of the dice, and the odds are not strongly in our favor. The other issue is that there APPEARS to be H5N1 strains with lower fatality rates in humans, although I don't think anyone is taking that to the bank yet. If one of those strains truely jumps the species barrier and acquires easy human infectivity and h2h transmission, it holds the hope for giving lots of people a flu that probably won't kill them, but that WILL convey immunity to H5N1 to the survivors. Again, it's a crap shoot.

And the red number you referred to is the one everyone fears-- a highly human virulent H5N1 strain that recombines with last year's respiratory flu infection, thus passing from human to human easily. That's one of the horsemen of the apocalypse.

[NNN0LHI]

110. Thank you. Really thank you

I learned more about this subject from your post than I have learned from every article and thread about this I have read in the past put together. I wish everyone could put this information into terms that the average person can understand like you just did. Take care for now mike_c and see you later. And thank you again.

Don

[Mojorabbit]

71. I just got an update from pro med in my mail box

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/asia.htm

This is part of their assessment of the current situation...

The avian influenza A (H5N1) epizootic outbreak in Asia is not expected to diminish significantly in the short term. It is likely that H5N1 infection among birds has become endemic to the region and that human infections will continue to occur. So far, no sustained human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus has been identified, and no evidence for genetic reassortment between human and avian influenza virus genes has been found; however, the epizootic outbreak in Asia poses an important public health threat.

If these H5N1 viruses gain the ability for efficient and sustained transmission between humans, there is little preexisting natural immunity to H5N1 infection in the human population, and an influenza pandemic could result, with high rates of illness and death. In addition, genetic sequencing of influenza A (H5N1) virus samples from human cases in Vietnam and Thailand shows resistance to the antiviral medications amantadine and rimantadine, two of the medications commonly used for treatment of influenza. This would leave two remaining antiviral medications (oseltamivir and zanamivir) that should still be effective against currently circulating strains of H5N1 virus. Efforts to produce a vaccine that would be effective against this strain of influenza A (H5N1) virus are under way. Vaccine reference virus strains already have been made and provided to manufacturers to produce pilot lots for human clinical trials as well as to produce a larger quantity of H5N1 vaccine, but mass production and availability of such a vaccine is some time off.



Recent research findings give further cause for concern. New research suggests that currently circulating strains of H5 viruses are becoming more capable of causing disease (pathogenic) for mammals than earlier H5 viruses and are becoming more widespread in birds in the region. One study found that ducks infected with H5N1 are now shedding more virus for longer periods of time without showing any symptoms of illness. This has implications for the role of ducks in transmitting disease to other birds and possibly to humans as well. Additionally, other findings have documented H5 infection among pigs in China and H5 infection in felines (experimental infection in housecats in the Netherlands and isolation of H5N1 viruses from infected tigers and leopards in Thailand ), suggesting that cats could host or transmit the infection. These finding are particularly worrisome in light of the fact that reassortment of avian influenza genomes is most likely to occur when these viruses demonstrate a capacity to infect multiple species, as is now the case in Asia.

[pandemic_1918]

74. Old News

There is nothing current in the CDC report. Everything cited is at least 6 months old. There is nothing about the 1000 serum samples from northern Vietnam, the die off at Qinghai Lakes, the confirmed fatalities in Indonesia, the asymptomatic H5N1 pigs in Indonesia. the start of bird migration.

If this report was just written, its pretty close to USDA announcements on BSE.

[rodeodance]

80. still, the whole thing is scary to me.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

84. All of these things you cite...

...in your various posts in this thread all seem to point sooner or later back to recombinomics.com, which, I assume, is your website. I also note that you do not cite any sources for most of your information, and rather selectively pick information from mainstream media sources before adding your own "take" on it.

In the interest of full disclosure, how much of this stuff you're linking did you actually write? How much of it is your suppositions? Excuse me if I say that this sounds a bit fishy.

[arikara]

92. An interesting little sidebar from China

China Unpegs Itself
By PAUL KRUGMAN
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/22/opinion/22krugman.html?th=&emc=th&pagewanted=print


Thursday's statement from the People's Bank of China, announcing that the yuan is no longer pegged to the dollar, was terse and uninformative - you might say inscrutable. There's a good chance that this is simply a piece of theater designed to buy a few months' respite from protectionist pressures in the U.S. Congress.

Nonetheless, it could be the start of a process that will turn the world economy upside down - or, more accurately, right side up. That is, the free ride China has been giving America, in which the world's richest economy has been getting cheap loans from a country that is dynamic but still quite poor, may be coming to an end.

It's all about which way the capital is flowing.<snip>

[Maple]

102. Ah yes, yet another 'we're all gonna die' thread

Honestly, DUers are worse than Freepers for Armageddon hysteria.

Relax folks...ain't gonna happen. Stop scaring yourselves to death...that's actually the only danger you're in. Sheesh.

[NNN0LHI]

103. Its OK Ms. Maple

mike_c has really been on it in this thread you should read it. Most of the stuff is way over my head but I still like reading it anyway. Take care.

Don

[Maple]

104. Kay thanks

There are just so many of them on here scaring people to death for no reason, I don't even bother going through the hysterics and dire predictions any more. :D

[NNN0LHI]

105. Yea mike_c had to do some heavy duty analytical thinking...

...all the while beating off attackers from every direction. Two and three at a time too. I can't think on my feet like that any more. Getting too old. He never even lost his cool one time either. I don't think any of the deleted messages were his. A real pro if you ask me. Take care Ms. Maple.

Don

[Henny Penny]

107. lol

:rofl: :rofl:

Its good when someone does the heavy duty thinking for us, isn't it?

[NNN0LHI]

111. Yea it is

As I said my brain can't do it anymore. At 40 my eyesight went bye bye, and at 50 my analytical thinking ability went on permanent vacation. Oh well just part of the golden years I guess.

Don

[Henny Penny]

113. Im sure that's not true!

Hanging out here will entice it back to work I think!

:hi:

[mike_c]

114. jeez don, I'm 50....

Now you're starting to scare me! That field site visit I mentioned above was a real eye-opener for me-- It's only been a couple of years since I've been intensively involved with physical field work-- these days I spend most of my research time writing-- but the heat and terrain SERIOUSLY affected me. Things that I did for enjoyent just a couple of years ago had me thinking about my coronary health. Getting older sucks.

[Pepperbelly]

108. well ... actually ...

we all have it coming.

It's a fact.

[Henny Penny]

112. Scaremongerer!

:-)