DoDBuzz: A Taliban Surge in Afghanistan?

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A Taliban Surge in Afghanistan?
By Greg Grant Friday, February 27th, 2009 5:09 pm
Posted in Intelligence, International

At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing this week on Afghanistan and Pakistan, retired Lt. Gen. David Barno was asked if he thought Obama’s decision to send 17,000 more troops to Afghanistan this spring and summer was a good move. Barno, who commanded U.S. troops in Afghanistan during 2004 when things there looked much better, said that while it would be nice to know the administration’s strategy first, it was vital to get more troops into southern Afghanistan where the U.S. and NATO are currently on their heels.

Barno said Obama would eventually have to send a “substantially” larger force. Going forward, he saw U.S. strategy in Afghanistan unfolding in a variation of the now familiar “clear, hold and build” counterinsurgency approach. He termed it “stabilize, protect, build, transition”: 2009 would be a stabilize phase, a holding action to ensure Afghan national elections go off without too much trouble; 2010 would see, once more troops arrive, a counter-offensive against the Taliban and other insurgents; followed by a build phase from 2010 to 2015; and then an eventual transition to Afghan control.

But recent troubling developments across the border in Pakistan may throw efforts to stabilize into disarray and perhaps even force an acceleration of troop deployments and any plans for an offensive. Over at the Long War Journal, Bill Roggio reported this week that three senior Taliban warlords in North and South Waziristan, areas basically ceded to the Taliban by Pakistan, formed an alliance and said they would join forces under the Council of United Mujahedeen. If that wasn’t bad enough, they also professed allegiance to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar and Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Ladin. Omar promptly published a letter directing the new allies to stop fighting the Pakistani military and instead husband their followers for attack against U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan.

The always insightful John McCreary gives this sobering take in Nightwatch:

“These developments are significant for several reasons. First they indicate the split over strategy is publicly and officially ended. Pakistani and other efforts to exploit and enlarge rifts among the anti-government militants have failed. The movement appears to have achieved a degree of unity that eluded it for years. The Pashtun militants will fight under Omar’s flag and in Afghanistan, suggesting a significant reinforcement in the numbers and skill sets of the anti-Kabul fighters, who may be expected to move into Afghanistan before spring. Omar and his lieutenants must be planning a major surge before the US and NATO members increase their combat forces.”


Rest of article at: http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/02/27/a-taliban-surge-in-afghanistan/?wh=wh