U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq in Perspective: Year 4

[unhappycamper]

U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq in Perspective: Year 4
by Glenn Kutler


Glenn Kutler ([e-mail]) has contributed a weekly analysis of Iraq war fatalities to Casualties.org since 2003 and is principal of Fulcrum Capital, LLC, based in Philadelphia. Prior to establishing Fulcrum in 1997, he worked in information technology operations, merchant banking, corporate development, and venture capital. This article continues a series begun with his ‘‘U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq: A Two-Year Retrospective’’ (Orbis, Summer 2005) and ‘‘U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq: Year 3’’ (Orbis, Summer 2006).


Abstract: As year five begins, the prospects for a successful conclusion of the Iraq war – one that would repair the deep seated and deadly animosities throughout civil society, establish a foundation for a sustainable democratic government, and stop the inexorable climbof U.S. fatalities above 3,000 and of total casualties toward 30,000 and beyond - are remote. The U.S. is embroiled in a conflict in
three dimensions, military political and civil, that defies solution. Our military and its leaders have tended to underestimate the enemy and engage it halfheartedly, while the insurgents have retained freedom of action and repeatedly seized the initiative. The fourth dimension, the battle for Iraqi hearts and minds, essential for bringing hostilities to an end, has not even begun.

As of March 19, 2007, the end of the fourth year of war in Iraq, the U.S. military was ensnared in a maelstrom of three converging currents: the underlying military conflict, which began in March 2003; the battle for political control, which began in January 2005; and grinding civil strife, which has been at unconscionable levels since early 2006. As shown in Table 1, it had suffered over 27,000 casualties: more than 24,000 wounded and 3,000 dead.

When the war began, the United States was single-minded in its focus on defeating the enemy on the battlefield. Hopes were high upon completion of the invasion and the fall of Baghdad in April 2003 that the first phase of the war effort—Military Conflict—would come to a rapid conclusion, as exemplified by President Bush’s ‘‘mission accomplished’’ speech the next month. However, an insurgency began to operate at a comparatively low levels of violence. Then, with the approach of the second anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, an especially deadly spike in insurgent violence occurred, the first of a series of ten of such magnitude throughout the war to date. By the end of the
war’s first year, March 19, 2004, total U.S. military casualties totaled 3,574, including 2,988 wounded and 586 dead.

The start of the second year of the war coincided with the killing of four U.S. contractors whose bodies were mutilated and hung from a bridge in Fallujah. By this act, insurgents signaled a dramatic increase in the ferocity of their efforts, and as Military Conflict, the first current of the war, continued, a major escalation of the U.S. war effort ensued, capped by the Fallujah Offensive, which extended for 13 weeks from November 2004 through January 2005. That was the most violent single cycle of the war to date for American troops, with an average of 24 U.S. military fatalities per week. Starting right after the U.S. presidential election, it was undertaken both to avenge the brutal killings at the bridge earlier in the year and to stemthe tide of continuing insurgent attacks. The cost in U.S. military fatalities was high. The week ending November 13, 2004, with 67 dead, was the worst of the entire war for Americans, and that
month U.S fatalities, at 137, were the highest. And on January 26, 2005, 31 U.S. soldiers died in a helicopter crash, theworst single day of the war for Americans. The second year of the war ended on March 19, 2005 with 8,454 wounded and 936 dead, for a total of 9,390, or 2.6 times the number in Year 1.

Although it was costly, the Fallujah Offensive was militarily successful, slowing the pace of U.S. military fatalities and ushering in the second major current of hostilities—the Battle for Political Control—as the Iraqi election cycle began and extended into year 3 of the war. This cycle, which involved the formation of a Transitional Government, approval of a Constitution and the installation of a permanent Council of Representatives, continued until December 2005. Impelled by a multi-pronged effort on both the military and political fronts, led by the dogged efforts and personal involvement of many high-level administration officials, including the vice president (who remarked that the insurgencywas ‘‘in its last throes’’) and the president (who began looking ahead tomilitary disengagement, saying ‘‘as the Iraqis stand upwe will stand down), a government voted into office by a determined Iraqi people was established.


Rest of article at: http://www.icasualties.org/oif/U.S.%20Military%20Fatalities%20in%20Iraq%20in%20Perspective.pdf


on edit to add: http://icasualties.org/oif/4_Year_Retrospective.htm