The DC establishment Dems and their influence

[politicasista]

Just posting this as a thought or you may say a continuation from whome's thread (If true, this could be HUGE) about the establishment Dems (Reid's influence) and the revamped primary schedule and how this effects Kerry if he decides to run again.

It is becoming clear that Reid and the DC Dems don't want another (or afraid of) Kerry run, trying to marginalize the liberal base, wanting to pave the way for moderate Dems (i.e. Hillary, Edwards, Warner and and so on) and trying to line up the establishment Dems against Kerry, which is unfortunate.

I know he didn't have their support in 04, but what about 08? (if we still have a country by then) Are there any DC Dems on his side?

Is there anything we could do or anything to make this go away? :shrug:

[TayTay]

1. In a way it matters, in a way it doesn't.

The primaries are a long way off. There is an awful lot of water that has to go under that bridge first. There is the matter of money. We can see, publicly from the fec.gov site, that Kerry has access to about $14 million, so far, that he can use as he pleases. Only Hillary has more money.

This matters a lot. One effect of clumping four caucuses/primaries together in a 2 week stretch is that you will get less retail politics and more media appearances. That means money and lots and lots of it. Kerry has proven that he can pull in the big bucks, even after '04. (He has raised a tremendous amount of money for other candidates, somewhere on the order of $8 - 12 million more since '04.)

I think what I have always thought: there will be 4, maybe 5, peopole who can really attempt a credible run in '08. I think, right now, they are: Clinton, Kerry, Warner, Bayh and maybe Edwards, though a lot depends on his ability to raise money. (He did rasie money in '04 cycle. But a lot of that came from the trial lawyers. There has been talk that he has exhausted that source of cash and this may be one reason he is going union s heavily, he needs their money and donor base.) I don't think Biden, Feingold, Kucinich or any of the other possible have a real shot. (For one thing, they have no real people on the ground in Iowa or New Hampshire or SC or NV who are building support for them. Biden has no organization, not even a shadow organization in IA. It's late in the game for him to start thinking he cane just be a start-up there. Where is going to get staff? Who is he talking to on the local levels in the various cities and towns there? I can't take him seriously.)

The inside baseball stuff matters a little, and then again, it doesn't. The insiders are always doing things to tilt the field. Sometimes if does affect the actual results, most of the time it really doesn't. They do what they do. If these are the conditions under which Kerry wants to run again, then they are the conditions. He would have to take them under advisement and add them into his calculations for running. (Again, this is how it is. Power is never given, it is taken. This is true in America and in primary season as much as any other time or place. If Kerry wants to run, then he must play the hand that's dealt him. He knows this.)

The other thing to consider is that the wheels are turning a bit for Kerry. He was right in 2004 about most things having to do with Iraq, homeland security, health care and so forth. In 2005, he was ahead of the curve on the Downing Street Memos, the call for accountability and responsibility and for a general toughening up of the Democratic Party for this year's midterms. It was Kerry, not Reid, who took a hard line for Democrats to oppose both Judge Roberts and Alito for the Supreme Court. (A move that, reportedly, angered Reid.) Kerry is the point man on the Democratic Plan to withdraw from Iraq within a year. There are a host of other ways in which Kerry has been ahead of the curve for the Dems. I think that will pay out.

It is very early. See what happens. Clinton will probably run, I think it's irresistible for her. We shall see what unfolds.