Go to dailykos front page for the '08 Straw Poll now

[beachmom]

So far it's all about Obama, Edwards, and Clark

[wisteria]

1. The only poll listing all the possible candidates has

Gore leading by some ridiculous amount.I wonder how they manage to have more people vote for him then are average daily and occasional readers? Anyway nothing new there, Kerry is doing badly, but IMO, that is not such a bad thing on Kos.
All of the polling in the world is not going to influence my pick. Those who represent other candidates and try to convince others to join their camp based on what looks like popularity insult the peoples intelligence. Most people like to consider themselves free thinkers and not easily swayed by hype or negative attacks.


I voted though. :D

HRC is doing better than him, now you know this is not fair. When has she watched anyones back. Ungrateful little prigs. And you know,it is Kerry they will go to as soon as they want someone to back something they support.

[sandnsea]

2. "it is Kerry they will go to"

That's exactly right. They'll make excuses for every other Senator who doesn't do what they want, and out and out ignore a bunch of others. Kennedy doesn't take any grief for some of his mistakes with Bush. But Kerry, they expect him to deliver every time, and even though he almost always does, they still don't stand behind him. :crazy:

[beachmom]

3. Gore? Sorry, I don't see his name there

This is the result I see:

Poll
Who is currently your favorite 2008 candidate?

Tom Vilsack
1% 168 votes
Bill Richardson
4% 676 votes
Barack Obama
28% 3947 votes
John Kerry
1% 239 votes
Mike Gravel
0% 77 votes
John Edwards
28% 4040 votes
Christopher Dodd
0% 65 votes
Hillary Clinton
5% 726 votes
Wesley Clark
26% 3673 votes
Joe Biden
1% 162 votes
Evan Bayh
1% 221 votes

| 13994 votes | Results

[wisteria]

6. I found the poll below and voted in it. It was a fantasy poll .Look at Gore's numbers.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/12/6/115613/456

[beachmom]

8. Gore is better than Obama, Edwards, or Clark; at least he has the

experience and a long career. He's my #2 if Kerry decided not to run. That's interesting. It doesn't annoy me, and backs up what I've thought about the netroots. Of course, part of the attraction of Gore is that he doesn't want to run. It's like if you can't have him, then people want him.

[Firespirit]

4. The Kos/MyDD people are drinking some strong Kool Aid.

Over the past week, we've heard the following from them.

-The Boston Globe article about Kerry's delayed announcement is an indication that he isn't running. (Chris Bowers)
-Complete ignoring of Kerry in a 2008 candidate analysis. (Markos)
-Gore is playing coy with the media and will announce "yes." (Various commenters at both sites. Also, Gore was included in Kos's analysis that left out Kerry.)
-Gore will announce for president at the Academy Awards. (Various commenters.)
-Clark is a "first tier" presidential candidate along with Obama. Hillary is a third tier candidate. (Jerome Armstrong)

I actually do respect what many of them are trying to do for the party, but they are so out of touch with reality that it's mind-blowing. Forget a grain of salt -- you need an entire box of it when you're talking about 2008 with this set.

[beachmom]

5. Now he has a post up about the results

Bad news is he puts Kerry in the third tier (but since Kos is such a bad prognosticator, read nothing into that). Good news is that he got the message that Kerry did more than anyone else for 2006 and the flubbed joke was a big nothing.

Here it is:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/12/6/18541/6297

6. John Kerry

He wrote the big check in 2006 for the DSCC and worked harder for our candidates than probably any other. Then he flubbed a joke and it was the end of the world. It was an interesting experience. While I have never been a fan, and wasn't thrilled with him making a second bid for the White House, the response was ridiculous. The flubbed joke gave many Democrats an excuse to put the shiv into him with ferocity. That they did so using right-wing frames and furthering the right-wing's continued Swift Boating of Kerry was irrelevant to them. They jumped at the chance to knock Kerry down a peg or three. It was an ugly episode, but if nothing else, it proved that Kerry had accumulated too much ill-will to effectively run again.


Well, kos:
Ill-will from the corporate Dems, that is, which isn't necessarily a bad thing long term.

Still, I have to say our whining at him about his unfairness on the fundraising and giving away money in '06 paid off. We did have an impact, which is why I will continue to advise that we engage at dailykos.

[Mass]

7. This is a cattle call based on kos results, and they are barely representative of anything.

[wisteria]

9. I think we have to face the fact that Kos type bloggers are not going to

support Kerry. I honestly don't care too much except for their treatment of Kerry, they are a small fraction of the voters that Kerry needs to reach. We have tried, Kerry has tried and still they ignore and ridicule him and go for the candidates that do absolutely nothing for them at all. Politics is a game to them, and they don't like to lose. Democrats are short sited when they run and reject some of their best candidates because they lost.This could be why we win the Presidency so infrequently. Gore is an exception and I can honestly say, I don't get the appeal other then the assumption that he really didn't lose. That doesn't necessary mean he could win again in 08, but hey, they don't think that far ahead. It is as if they purposely love to put him down and the more he does to reach out the more they reject him. Maybe he needs to mentally tell them to go to hell. Maybe he needs to do as he wants and stop trying to connect to them. They certainly don't respect his efforts or unfortunately the senator himself. They are abusers who understand nothing but abuse.

[beachmom]

10. Dailykos gets more hits than the NY Times. I will continue to engage

there and try to get news about Kerry to appear on their pages. Powerful people read dailykos; they don't read DU. That's just a fact.

I don't put much stock into the Straw Poll either, especially the Clark numbers (he's got NO broad support except in the netroots). But getting Kerry on their pages is a big deal and especially since the MSM is so terrible, this is a way to bypass them.

Given how small the number of people who voted in the Straw Poll, it is obvious that the lurkers far outnumber the posters and commenters. They are the invisible, and they're the people we're going after.

[wisteria]

11. You misunderstand my thoughts.

And, they were a bit rambling and hard. By all means keep posting positive Kerry pieces at Kos and other sites. I will continue to defend him also there and elsewhere,it is certainly a good idea to keep his name out there, but unfortunately, it is the poll results that people pick up on and considering he never does well in the polls, perhaps another approach is necessary.I do question the authenticity of some of the votes registered to potential candidates over there, but Senator Kerry is not reaching the poll participants, neither are we. Why? This latest poll indicates he has even less support than before the election and you have posted some wonderful pieces supporting him and we have all defended him. Hillary is doing better than he is and that hurts. People are writing him off, why? Kos, has defended Kerry over the flub. He didn't say he was done. My thoughts are, people may read Kos, but they are not influenced by him or the site. The strongest influences still come from the main stream media. Like it or not. This seems to explain why Gore is doing well, he has been all over the place, there is a music video out crediting Gore and his push on the Global Warming issue.Carter says he won in 2000. He has gotten good press.He seems like a winner. Clark has regular appearances on Fox News, that gives him good press. Hillary get press anytime she wants it and seems to have the power- at least right now- to stop bad press in its tracks. I could go on and on, the point is, IMO, we aren't hitting the right nerve and our efforts and not netting good results. Kerry has reached out and communicated to the Kos people and the readers and yet, he is treated badly in most cases and ridiculed. Maybe it is time for him to stop being Mr. nice guy to them and let them know in no uncertain terms, he is who is and like Tay says, if they don't like it-to bad,then bite me. For these people it doesn't matter what you do, how smart you are, how you could change the world, it is all about winning. Senator Kerry and us need to convince people that he can win. IMHO.

[karynnj]

13. Kerry IS "Mr. Nice Guy" - in the best sense of the word and should continue being that

He has never pandered to the Kos crowd - or any other group. The positions he took in his posts were consistant with what he said on MSM, on his Senate web site and his speeches. I can't think of anything he wrote that was different. This is one of that things I respect about Kerry - and it is one of the things that makes him an extremely honest politician. In an era of youtube, this will become an increasingly important characteristic.

I would assume that he will continue reaching out to these people because the main thing he has been doing is advocating for policies he believes in. The internet provides a tool that, in reality, is a natural for Senator Kerry. I have read blogs from others and Kerry's best ones show how open he is to explaining his policies. It suggests how open a Kerry administration would be. Where else can you initiate serious conversations on the substance of issues? This is not a forum that works as well for candidates who are in it more for politics. I would bet that Senator Kerry would continue the conversation - even if he opted to remain a Senator. Like Gore, he could lead by advocating for ideas or policies. Consider how much a leader Kerry was in 1971.

I seriously doubt Senator Kerry would throw away a means to communicate with a huge number of people because of the rudeness of some. As to the polls, we know that they can be manipulated. I assume that there are places telling Clark or Edwards people to vote - just as we are here. People can have multiple logins. If Gore seriously started to run, I suspect his numbers might initially increase then taper off. As he is not running, he has NO real position on most issues. People on DU and Dkos assume that any past position they dislike is no longer his position. Global warming is important, but never polls as a top tier issue. Also, I would bet that the Clintons would have no scruples in knifing Gore in the back.

[wisteria]

14. You miss my point.

Nice man or not, the Kos crowd doesn't care or respect a nice guy. They want a winner. IMO, we have to convince people that Kerry can win in 08 if he decides to run.

By all means, Senator Kerry should continue to communicate with the Kos crowd and we should too. But trying to sell them on the senator just based on his positions and the great guy he is is not working.We need to win over more than one person at a time. All I am suggesting is a little different approach.

And, yes the polls can be manipulated, but we should not continue to use that as an excuse every time he does badly in one and then turn around a validate another one simply because he is doing good in it. Unfortunately, polls are looked at and the results register with people.
Now, you can get angry at me all you want and suggest that I am suggesting that Kerry sell himself out, but that is not the truth.
The truth is, the MSM has done damage to Senator Kerry and we need to face it and find a way to counter it.The time may come for the other candidate running, but right now, Senator Kerry is in a real slump. I would like to hear the media repeat the words, President Kerry in the future. And, IMHO, unless we can convince people he is electable I won't be hearing him referred to in that way.

[karynnj]

15. I wasn't angry - I just disagreed

I stated it poorly - I think Kerry's successes in the past were based on the fact that he just keeps going in the same reasonable, intelligent serious manner. I agree with you that Kerry was hurt by this attack and unlike in 2004, he doesn't have heavily watched debates to counter the attacks just by being himself. (SBVT, August 2004; debates Oct 2004) That attack - though it had no substance - was pushed by the RW, the media and the Clinton/Schumer wing of the party. That's a lot of force against one Senator.

The blogospere is one way of reachin people as are all the talk shows. The big problem is that the sum of the blogs/talk shows/news etc is smaller than the people reached by all the forces that pushed this joke. The good news is that they constain most of the people that really care. The second piece of good news is that there is still some time - though less than would be desired.

In retrospect, this is not that surprising - these same people were going to attack Kerry if he looked like he could gain traction. They tried with "hey John" when he was doing an exceptional job for 2006. As this was the time people are announcing, this was a time when they would try to hit him. The fact that he won the nomination with the party and media not for him in 2004 likely scares them - and they don't want to lose control. Kerry was the people's candidate - and the media did not acknowledge it even in 2004. Have you seen a candidate with that little support from media and party win the nomination SO EASILY or at all before.

[politicasista]

16. You're right about the MSM

It's been a hot topic at the blogs (pro-Kerry ones) last week and the aftermath of the joke. In addition to the need for a strong PR, there has to be a way for Kerry and Momma T (aka Teresa) to get their messages out to the real, voting public in their own words. The book coming out next spring may help, but I agree with you, the challenge is convincing people that he is electable.

Although polls are manipulated (and meaningless ?), there has to be a reason that Hillary, Obama, and others are polling high right now. Name recognition is one, good press is another, but the real world thoughts of having a first female president with Bill back in the WH, Obama as the first AA president, Gore cause he won in 2000, Edwards, cause of his focus on poverty awareness.

[karynnj]

12. Your analysis of Kos's is great

It is interesting that he concedes two things:
- That Kerry worked harder on 2006 and gave a "big check". Your comment that we helped on this perception is likely why it occurred. Markos was exactly the type of person that HeyJohn was targetting and this shows it didn't work. It may actually have backfired as without it, there was no reason for all the posts pointing out what he did.

- He also says far more here on the joke (in Kerry's defense) than he needed to. To say that some mainstream Democrats used right wing swiftboating against a prominant Democrat,

- immediately before an important election
- when (as he led with) that Democrat was working harder for the party than anyone
- when that Democrat was the leading voice on the most important issue (Iraq)
- and that this was done for 2008 politics to "knock him down a peg or two"

discredits the backstabbers and implies he was enough of a threat to warrant being knocked down a few pegs. Kos's conclusion is nonsense as it implies that all you need to do to eliminate ALL other candidates is to orchastrate a smear - even one that is obvious in its lack of real substance. He also ignores what is far more significant - Kerry has been the strongest person on Iraq and other foreign policy issues. I still don't know Hillary's solution to Iraq. She is not leading.

As I was out of the country for most of last week, I saw and heard all the interviews on the Kerry website and here yesterday or this morning in a John Kerry marathon. With Iraq now the main topic - Kerry had the opportunty to speak about the real issue - not the froth. It is clear that the committee and nearly everyone else is now talking of approaches that are in general term what Senator Kerry spoke of even in 2004. Watching all the Kerry interviews, his real concern for the welfare of the troops is in sharp contrast to the detached comments of most other politicians and pundits. The other thing that came out was that Kerry is motivated to do what is best for the soldiers and the country - contrast this to the backstabbers who were not even motivated to do what was best for the party - just what was best for themselves.

Kerry's real dignity coupled with his credibility on Iraq and other foreign policy issues would seem to have already countered the impact of the joke. We need to advocate for Kerry now on how right he has been on Iraq and on how connected he is to the troops. On the latter, just as in 2004 - he likely does understand the veterans far better than Hillary, Edwards or Obama. (I don't think Gore is running. I know he was the only vet who refused to join the POW/MIA committee, but I don't know what his record on veteran's rights was.) I have no idea how Democratic veterans relate to a General Clark. I do think it interesting that Kerry's 1971 phrase is being mentioned so often as people grasp that Iraq can't be won militarily.

[paulk]

17. it's good that Kos puts Kerry in the third tier

Since Kos is so consistently wrong on these sort of things... If Kos put Kerry in the first tier, I'd get worried. And god forbid that Kos ever endorses Kerry... that would be the kiss of death!