Kerry Lost Iowa

[Dr Ron]

The media just seems to keep screwing Kerry,from the botched joke to making a big deal out of Kennedy's statement. Now the Des Moines Register has retroactively denied Kerry his 2004 caucus victory:

"Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina and the winner of the 2004 caucuses, was picked as the early preference of 36 percent of likely caucusgoers in the survey."

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061214/NEWS09/612140397/1056

On edit, I did send an email to the author regarding the error.

[wisteria]

1. Thank you.

They think people don't remember these things and they can get away with them. They should be asked to correct the error in print.
I think I'll contact them too.

[blm]

2. Maybe they are referencing the EARLY caucus voting like this one.

In that case, I would have expected Gore or Lieberman as winners. Gore decided to NOT run in Dec 2002, I believe.

[Dr Ron]

3. Article says winner

The article sure sounds like they are talking about the winner and not leader in early polls. Besides, Edwards was even further down the list until both Kerry and Edwards surged after Dean and Gephardt killed each other off.

Maybe it is wishful thinking. The Des Moines Register did endorse Edwards.

[demdiva]

4. Well it's also a poll of just environmentalists, which you would never know from their caption

Kerry has a strong environmental record and with the book coming out in April, that might make for some very good press in Iowa and growing support among the environmental crowd.

[Dr Ron]

5. Poll itself is meaningless

Even full state polls from Iowa a month before the caucus didn't mean much. A poll this far ahead is meaningless. I don't know if it would change anything, but this poll was also taken two months ago with results released now.

I don't even know why they are posting the story at all. I figure that it wouldn't make much difference to email them the writer that her whole story is BS. At least they could correct the obvious factual error that Edwards won.

While not stated this way in the article, maybe she means that Edwards won among this group in 2004, in which case they are even less predictive of the ultimate results.

[demdiva]

6. That's true. It's worth correcting.

That's a pretty serious factual infraction because it's a fact that is soooo easy to check. It's not even like accidentally misquoting somebody. One call to the Iowa Election Board (or whatever they call it there) and she'd have the real facts.

[demdiva]

7. I also don't believe that only 8% of the voters are "undecided"

this far in advance ...puh-lease

[Dr Ron]

12. Soft support

I could see people naming a candidate they are leaning towards now. Regardless of the undecided number, there is no doubt far more votes will change between now and the caucus.

[demdiva]

8. HAS BEEN CORRECTED... nicely done.

Of course they never say that Kerry won, but ....

Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina and the second-place finisher in the 2004 caucuses, was picked as the early preference of 36 percent of likely caucusgoers in the survey.

[karynnj]

9. Nice correction -

It also shows that this survey in 2004 was slightly high for Edwards. It is odd if they are primarilly environmentalists as he had a mediocre record to Kerry's very good one. I wonder if there is some other ways in which it was non- representative.

I was pleasantly surprised this morning that on MSNBC when they covered their poll (where Kerry had 11%) in the segment shortly after the Imus show, they included Kerry as one of the 4 serious candidates - and said that only Hillary and Kerry had any national security credentials. (well - they are half right.) This is better than they have been.

[wisteria]

11. Good, I e-mailed myself and asked that it be corrected.

Our combined efforts must of worked.

[sandnsea]

10. I like all the up and down

The polls are running on media hype right now, who can know enough about Obama to support him as a candidate. As people start seeing the volatitlity, it'll open the field more and people will start thinking. That's what helped JK, in the end, that Iowans think for themselves. When people in the rest of the country get that sense, then they'll step back from this pre-ordained nonsense.