Assorted poll-parsing

[Firespirit]

I am looking at the two recent 2008 polls -- the NBC/WSJ poll that has Kerry ranked as #4 among Democrats with 11% of the vote, as well as the less favorable Rasmussen matchups, to try to see what I can take away from them.

Immediately, looking at the NBC poll, I notice that Kerry has recovered what he lost during the joke thing. The poll was conducted VERY recently -- in fact, while the Boston event was going on. That his numbers are back up to 11% from 6-7% is a very good sign, and IMO shows that the press bonanza has helped. Talking about Iraq has benefited him.

My feeling -- and this poll validates it -- is that he didn't actually lose people post-joke, but some people who had been telling pollsters they supported him were either embarrassed to do so while the press was lynching him, or they had doubts as to his ability to speak. Either way, the good press about Iraq has been a benefit. He is now where he was before. One thing that's very significant is that he is 3 points behind Edwards, which is within the poll's margin of error (although I suspect Edwards does outpoll Kerry -- he has for awhile now), and 7 points behind Obama.

Now, the Rasmussen mini-polls. Via Kos:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/12/14/131844/59

11/26-27

McCain (R) 48
Clinton (D) 44

Giuliani (R) 48
Clinton (D) 43

11/28-29

Gingrich (R) 41
Clinton (D) 50

Gingrich (R) 38
Obama (D) 48

11/30-12/1

McCain (R) 53
Kerry (D) 36

Giuliani (R) 51
Kerry (D) 37

12/2-3

Gingrich (R) 38
Kerry (D) 47

Immediately, I notice that Kerry is only matched against McCain, Giuliani, and Gingrich. He only wins against Gingrich -- no surprise, considering the media slobberfest over McCain and Giuliani.

I am attributing the McCain and Giuliani numbers to an ignorant center. The McCain and Giuliani matchups against Kerry are not an "anti-Kerry vote," but a genuine ignorance on the part of the political middle. I think that as soon as more of the truth becomes known about these two, they will not continue to lead in polls. Also, McCain and Giuliani polls do not represent the alleged right-wing rage that a Hillary candidacy would encourage, because those two currently have support beyond the Republican Party. What would be a way to measure the "anti-Hillary vote" would be a matchup of a Republican hack and standard-bearer against Mrs. Clinton.

And look at this, we have just that.

Gingrich has some very strong negatives, but one thing I'm taking away from this poll is that Hillary's negatives are worse. Look at this again.

Gingrich (R) 38
Kerry (D) 47

Gingrich (R) 41
Clinton (D) 50

The point spread is the same -- a 9-point win for the Democrat. But Gingrich gets a higher percentage of the vote running against Hillary than against Kerry. This is the anti-Hillary vote. 41% of the population would apparently vote for a consummate sleaze like Gingrich rather than for her. This poll, to me, is Exhibit A of why Hillary is probably unelectable.

All in all, there's a lot of good to take away from these two polls.

Thoughts?

[blm]

1. My thoughts are same as always - polls reflect ratio of media attention that is

positive compared to that which is constantly negative. And THAT is all.

Debates and actual articulation of policy positions will clarify all eventually.

[ProSense]

2. I noticed that the number climbed back to the original too! Also,

Giuliani and McCain are benefitting from press hype. To your last point, Hillary's negatives are pretty solid and have been that way since the 90s. Agree, this will be hard for her to overcome.

[demdiva]

3. The point is HE'S IN THE RACE

none of the specifics will matter until there is a real race...he's in there and that's the important thing

[demdiva]

4. In addition, did you notice the only winning combo for the dems is

Gingrich / Clinton and Gingrich/Obama. Maybe we should all contribute to the Gingrich campaign.

[karynnj]

5. Kerry beats Gingrich too

[whometense]

6. Not a poll, but this is interesting:

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6715

The Libertarian Vote

by David Boaz and David Kirby

David Boaz is executive vice president of the Cato Institute. He is the author of Libertarianism: A Primer and editor of The Libertarian Reader, Toward Liberty, and Left, Right & Babyboom: America's New Politics. David Kirby is executive director of America's Future Foundation and a graduate of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.

The main theme of political commentary in this decade is polarization. Since the battles over the impeachment of President Clinton and the Florida vote in 2000, pundits have been telling us that we're a country split down the middle, red vs. blue, liberal vs. conservative. Political analysts talk about base motivation and the shrinking of the swing vote. But the evidence says they are wrong.

Not all Americans can be classified as liberal or conservative. In particular, polls find that some 10 to 20 percent of voting-age Americans are libertarian, tending to agree with conservatives on economic issues and with liberals on personal freedom. The Gallup Governance Survey consistently finds about 20 percent of respondents giving libertarian answers to a two-question screen.

Our own data analysis is stricter. We find 9 to 13 percent libertarians in the Gallup surveys, 14 percent in the Pew Research Center Typology Survey, and 13 percent in the American National Election Studies, generally regarded as the best source of public opinion data.

For those on the trail of the elusive swing voter, it may be most notable that the libertarian vote shifted sharply in 2004. Libertarians preferred George W. Bush over Al Gore by 72 to 20 percent, but Bush's margin dropped in 2004 to 59-38 over John Kerry. Congressional voting showed a similar swing from 2002 to 2004. Libertarians apparently became disillusioned with Republican overspending, social intolerance, civil liberties infringements, and the floundering war in Iraq. If that trend continues into 2006 and 2008, Republicans will lose elections they would otherwise win.

The libertarian vote is in play. At some 13 percent of the electorate, it is sizable enough to swing elections. Pollsters, political strategists, candidates, and the media should take note of it.

Full Text of Policy Analysis no. 580 (PDF, 1 MB)

That is a rather large swing.

[ProSense]

7. Fascinating!

This is also really interesting:

Populist (16%)
Liberal (18%)
Conservative (15%)
Libertarian (9%)
Ambivalent (42%)