Iraq and the 2008 election - how close are they linked?

[europegirl4jfk]

Let's suppose that Bush doesn't listen to the ISG and go for this "surge" or "last effort" for "victory" in Iraq. Beachmom just posted about it here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=273x117008.

And for anyone who didn't read this yet, I urge you to read "Stalingrad on the Tigris?":

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2006/12/stalingrad_on_t.html

""The paper urges a "surge" of many thousands more US troops into Baghdad beginning in March, 2007 for one more grand roll of the iron dice. The concept seems to be based on the notion that Shia militias exist because of Sunni violence against them rather than as expressions of a Shia drive to political dominance in Iraq. Based on that belief the authors seem to believe that if the additional US and Iraqi forces to be employed in the Capital area defeat (destroy?) the Sunni insurgent groups, then the Shia militia armies will "wither away" from a lack of need. I do not think that belief is justified.

.....

This concept is a recipe for a grandand climactic battle of attrition between US and Iraqi forces on one side and the some combination of Sunni and Shia forces on the other. The Sunnis and Shia would not necessarily "ally" themselves to each other, but a general co-belligerence against our people would be bad enough.

President Bush may well accept the essence of this concept. He wants to redeem his "freedom agenda," restore momentum to his plans and in his mind this might "clear up" Iraq so that he could move on to Iran.

The carnage implicit in this concept would be appalling. The authors have much to say about the consequences of defeat in Iraq, but, I wonder if they have contemplated what it would be like to fail in their climactic battle and still be required by '43 to stay in Iraq.""


And please have a look at the Power Point presentation: http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/files/200612141_choosingvictory6.pdf

It's frightening, it's completely shocking. If the Bush admin adopts this plan, there will be hundreds if not thousands of more American soldiers dying, and certainly tens or hundreds of thousands more Iraqis. And I'm convinced that it will not work at all and will only bring more chaos and destruction.



But back to my initial question about the Iraq war and the 2008 presidential election. If war wages on with no end in sight (and I don't know what the Democrats in Congress can or will do against it but that's another question), Iraq will still be of great importance in the 2008 campaign. First of all, deploying more troops is McCain's plan, right? If it's done and won't work, wouldn't it destroy his chances to get the Republican nomination? What's about the Democratic candidates? Wouldn't the ongoing violence in Iraq hurt H. Clinton's campaign too? She doesn't have a strong anti-war position, or does she? And isn't Kerry the only one with a clear proposal how to end the war? Which will probably change, being adapted to the evolving situation on the ground. And where stands Edwards here? He's certainly speaking against the war but foreign policy isn't exactly his strength, right?

I would love to hear your thoughts on this. And I will presume that neither Gore nor Obama will run, but if you want to include them - or others - into the equation, that's fine.

Let me just tell you, that I personally am very pessimistic about the whole Iraq/Middle East situation and that I'm not even convinced that diplomatic efforts would lead to a better outcome, especially if Bush continues his present course and the policy will only change after 2008.

[Dr Ron]

1. Will probably hurt Republicans

Republicans will attempt to place the blame on the Democratic Congress but virtually everyone will realize who got us into this mess.

This could hurt both Clinton and McCain, but it is too far out to attempt to predict if either could be stopped from winning the nomination.

I would not presume that Obama won't run. He is clearly in the race unless something comes up to reduce his chances.