Walter Shapiro on NH in '08

[whometense]

A dose of common sense?

Link: http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2006/12/18/non_candidate/index1.html

...Yet the TV news notion that the Democratic choice has already been winnowed down to Hillary versus Barack is ludicrously premature. From Jimmy Carter (1976) to Gary Hart (1984) to Bill Clinton -- the self-proclaimed "Comeback Kid" in 1992 -- the history of presidential politics is filled with rags-to-riches sagas, which sometimes lead to the presidency and sometimes fall tantalizingly short of the nomination. Four years ago at this time, Howard Dean was a mere blip on the Democratic radarscope, the retiring governor almost universally dismissed as a candidate who could not raise enough money or garner enough attention to mount a serious campaign.

Presidential election campaigns have always offered overconfident pundits and prognosticators crash courses in humility. New Hampshire Democratic Gov. John Lynch said in an interview last week, before the Bayh withdrawal was even rumored, "I think the New Hampshire primary is wide open. I really do. I think there are some who are willing to conclude who the nominee is going to be. But I think it's wide open and at this point anybody can come in and win the New Hampshire primary."

Lynch is partly playing booster for one of his state's major tourist attractions. But the governor -- who was the executive director of the state Democratic Party in the Carter miracle year of 1976 -- also seems genuinely caught up in the faith that the road to the White House passes through New Hampshire living rooms.

Referring to Obama, who had recently spoken to an unprecedented-for-New Hampshire huge political crowd, Lynch said, "If he's going to do well in New Hampshire, he still has to decide for himself that he's going to engage in retail politics that New Hampshire demands of its candidates. That means not only coming to events where there are 1,500 people and 150 representatives of the media, but also going into people's homes and kitchens and small groups and meeting with them in that context. That's the way you win New Hampshire." ...