Can anybody make any sense of this?

[Mass]

I do not put too much stock in these polls, but I could not figure out what could have led to these results from Survey USA. I understood the November results, but I cannot figure out what could have led to such a drop between November and December?

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport_main.aspx?g=6adc7a4c-109b-43ac-8a3b-ebe798a1b959

[karynnj]

1. The only thing I can think of

is that people in MA either want to send him a signal not to run or they are answering as they do because they are mad at him or consider that he embarrased them. If so, I doubt it is permanent.
Those polls have often had weird results.

The question is have you and the other MA people seen that kind of major shift (over the last two months)? If not, it's likely not true because between you you know a lot of people.

They are also more likely to have been people who liked Kerry - which is good - because they are the poll of people that would have had to change. (The people who didn't approve of Kerry in Oct - likely still don't like Kerry. This would be saying that about 1 out of 5 people who approved of Kerry in Oct no longer approve.) This seems unlikely for a 4th term Senator who is good on the issues as far as the state goes.

It also seems unlikely by the people some of us saw when he was in Boston. Some saw people on the street and outside Quincy Market who noticed him and seemed happy to see hime.

[whometense]

2. My initial reaction is

that it's utter bullshit. But what do I know? I certainly haven't seen anything like a major shift among the people I know. If the poll question was not slanted to begin with, I might attribute it to general Massachusetts orneriness, signifying nothing.

[karynnj]

3. I was reluctant to say that as a non - Massachusetts person

Some of the people in a group I worked in long ago occassionally looked at customer satisfaction data across the old Bell System. The one thing I remember was their warning that it was very hard to make comparisons from one part of the country to another - because some areas were "tougher graders". Notably, New England.

Here what is strange is the difference over that time period. It might even be people disappointed that he seemingly hurt his chances. I seriously doubt that thet 53% would vote against him in a primary in a Senate race. The worst thing is that the poll will obviously be pointed out.

[Mass]

5. Mine too - I have seen nobody change their mind about his job as senator.

I have seen some people say they feel less and less that he has a chance of being elected president, but it is a different issue.

[MBS]

4. my guess is that the date of publication

is later than the date of the poll itself: thus, the Dec 11 poll would really reflect the effects of nonstop media obsession with (and misreporting of) The Joke more than the Nove 11 poll, and also would not reflect what JK has done since. It's really only starting around Dec 10 or so that Kerry has been able to talk about things that matter, AND to get people to pay attention to his message. It feels to me like he's not only totally in the groove again, but that also, the media are even beginning to treat him with the respect he deserves (and has deserved all along). I bet you're going to see a big shift for the next poll .

Also, I'd want to know who did that poll, and what its composition was. Survey USA sometimes uses its own, sometime posts the results of other pollsters.. I was obsessed enough with the Nov election that I checked the RealClearPolitics poll site everyday, and found the local/state polls particularly variable in quality and helpfulness. .
But, above all, see Mark Barrett at the Premise for reminders on why polls are BS anyway.

[Mass]

6. The details of the poll are in the first link.

It is a SUSA poll, their monthly senators approval survey. It was taken on the 11th and published on the 19th.

[MBS]

7. thanks

I didn't think to check the original. . Well, it's a mystery to me, then, since things were already starting to turn around by the 11th. I still think it rmust reflect a time lag of some sort, perhaps in respondents' brains if nothing else. Or the poll was totally messed up. By the 11th, stories were starting to come out on his new chairmanship, plans for the next Congress, upcoming trip to Middle East. But maybe that's the rub: the stories were just STARTING to come out.

[wisteria]

8. Maybe the questions asked or the pollers are asking the questions in a manner

that gets a negative reply. Maybe, that is what they want and set out to get. You know, certain people are watching his poll numbers just for something to use against him. Maybe this does reflect feeling of neglect from certain individuals because he just isn't the "Mass senator" any longer.
As for his chances as President, for some reason, I feel more confident this time if he decides to run than last time. And, if he doesn't run, he still has time to bring these numbers up. Frankly, I am glad they are Mass # rather than Preidential numbers.

[sandnsea]

9. He's a target

If people don't understand that a Democrat would really target another Democrat for political purposes, then all they have to go on is what they see or read. He's been beaten to hell and back by Democrats, in MA media, and the national media. I'm not surprised at these numbers at all. It proves how fickle people are and how easily they can be moved by a phony media story.

[wisteria]

10. A target is right, also, what is moved one way can be moved back another way. n/t

[TayTay]

11. I don't think it means much of anything

The numbers for Boston and Central Mass don't make any sense. The numbers for SE Mass don't make any sense and have a great deal of sway to them from month to month without cause.

I think the last statewide poll I saw that counted was in Oct. It was about 55% favorable, 38% unfavorable and the rest don't know/no comment. I don't know what the polling methodology was on this poll and I have no way to analyze it.

I don't really care that much about it either.