As we approach election day...I can't help but think about *our* guy.

[Vektor]

And while I am cautiously optimistic, I cannot help but relive some of the fear, uncertainty, and sadness we all felt when the fix came in four years ago.

While it was a huge sacrifice (so huge, I really cannot find the words) to see our dream of a "President Kerry" go up in smoke (at least for 2004!) it really did open some eyes to the horrible flaws we have in our elections systems.

The few good things that came out of the horrors of the 2004 debacle are as follows:

A wee change in the make-up of congress, to a tiny, barely perceptible Democratic majority which will likely grow significantly on Nov. 4, 2008.

An awareness, finally, by most Americans that we should NOT be afraid of change, and that the status quo is not only ineffective, it's dangerous, and needs to be replaced by new, progressive thinking and lawmaking, post haste..

The "loss" of Ohio's Republican SOS who aided and abetted the Bush administration and cronies in all the dirty tricks that were perpetuated in 2004.

A Democratic SOS in Ohio who truly does fight for every vote to be counted and refuses to let GOP bullying keep the citizens of Ohio from casting their votes.

In Florida: The removal of those god-awful paperless e-voting machines which cannot be trusted as far as they can be picked up and thrown.

The long overdue admission by the mainstream media that something is indeed rotten in the United States of America regarding how our votes are being cast and counted.

Are they doing enough? No, not yet, but perhaps, in time, if we elect a Democratic President, and a healthy Dem. majority in congress (I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic here) SOMETHING will finally get done, on a large enough scale to truly protect and preserve MOST OF the integrity of our elections. (You know the GOP will always use dirty tricks, but hopefully we can nip a significant portion of that in the bud by making widespread disenfranchisement, e-voting on unreliable, faulty equipment which cannot be audited, and most of the usual GOP trickery largely things of the past.)

We are already making modest gains in that direction - maybe in 4-8 years, we'll be mostly there. It is refreshing that the mere notion of stolen elections has traveled safely from the "tin foil hat" category, to front page news. People are no longer denying the real possibility of what WE have all known for years.

Sadly, we are at the very least, 4 years too late, which brings me back to my original point. I cannot help but think about "what could have been" and how challenging it must be for our JK to be watching all this unfold, knowing full well, he rightfully should be our commander in chief. I do not believe for one second that he would ever begrudge his friend and colleague Barack Obama this victory, but I'm sure that he, like all of us here, cannot help but think about what might have been, what should have been.

But we have to move forward, and we are.

As we look ahead to what might very well end up being the most transformative election the world has ever seen, and watch with hopeful eyes as the United States of America elects - (providing all the votes ARE counted) - its very first "President of Color" I know we'll all be thinking about what an integral part John Kerry has been of all of this positive change we're witnessing.

I'm feeling a little bittersweet right now, and looking forward to better days. Thank you John Kerry, AND Barack Obama for all you have done, and all you will continue to do for this country.

May the force be with you! :-)

[YvonneCa]

1. Great post, Vektor. And welcome back...

...here. :) I think most of us are thinking along those lines on this significant day...even as we look to the future. Between your post and the one from dKos, it's hard not to think about 'what might have been.' I posted this in another thread a couple of days ago:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

This is an excellent post. I have seen a few pundits refer to 2004, when discussing 'voter' fraud. But VERY few. I agree with politicasista that they avoid 2004, probably because the case is more easily made by referring to 2000...where the truth has actually been reported (finally). The reason, IMHO, that it is easier to build a case for election reform by discussing current problems and the failures of 2000...while skipping over the failures of 2004...is that most media organizations shunned coverage of the problems of 2004. The reason for doing this IMHO is not yet clear. It could be for the sake of country unity, fear that they messed up TWICE and their own credibility, money, politicians telling them not to cover it...who knows? Some explanations have merit...others don't.

My big issue...in 2008...with all of this is that, because 2004 issues (SOS,technology, suppression,the recount in Ohio...yes there was one etc.) were not really publicly exposed, the RNC still thinks it can use the issue and play up Acorn, registration fraud, etc. with ANY kind of credibility. They ought to be ashamed of themselves. I emailed CNN about this:



Thank you for covering voting issues in the swing state of Ohio. The only problem is, you are four years too late.
I have been watching in interest as CNN and other news outlets report on the activities of ACORN. Today, I watched as the same outlets reported on the Supreme Court decision about voting in Ohio...initiated by SOS of Ohio, Jennifer Brunner. This is a good story.
But the 'back story' to this is conspicuously missing. In 2004, Ohio had problems with voting AND problems with a recount. This was barely covered in 2004, and is not being reported now. It is an important part of the story, related to today's Supreme Court decision. In 2004, votes were suppressed...probably electronically in addition to the 'traditional' ways. In 2004, Ohio had a Republican Governor and SOS...responsible for counting (and recounting) votes. The SOS, Ken Blackwell, had a conflict of interest...a big one...he was also co-chair of Bush/Cheney for President.
So, the American people need some context on this Supreme Court ruling. It's not all about ACORN, where some individuals committed registration fraud...and not voter fraud. The real story here is that Jennifer Brunner is fighting to make sure that voters in Ohio...whose votes did not count in 2004...get to vote in 2008.
As a responsible news organization, please tell the whole story.




And, when Obama is elected and hopefully, we have a stronger Democratic Congress, there is legislation already prepared (by Clinton, I think) to reform things. It will be time to get the truth out and finally pass that legislation. I don't believe such legislation would even exist if our leaders were not aware of the truth of 2004.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

And, yes, to all our heroes, "May the force be with you!"


:patriot:

[Vektor]

7. Our posts sound remarkably similar!

Great minds think alike! :-)

[BlueIris]

2. Yeah. While some progress has been made re: the big picture, this (today) is one anniversary

that basically flat-out sucked for me.

To better times.

:toast:

[YvonneCa]

4. "To better times"...

...yes, absolutely! :toast:

[Vektor]

8. Oh, it sucked for me too.

I have a hard time even articulating how upsetting 2004 was for me, but I kept on keeping on, as hard as it was.

I'm starting to feel a little better now...

[beachmom]

3. Bittersweet. Yup.

I think of all the members of the Kerry group I am probably the biggest Obama kool aid drinker. 2004 for me meant meeting two politicians who I admired greatly: Kerry and Obama. It just ended up that Kerry captured my heart more fully during the disastrous awful years of 2005 (Katrina) and 2006 (the most deadly year in Iraq). Kerry was the leader in the Dem party who took chances and led efforts when it wasn't easy. And boy did he pay the price for that courage.

Yet now I am seeing things more clearly: Kerry forged a path so that Obama could walk calmly through it, with all the brush and prickly thorns cleared away by Kerry. Obama had been busy building his organization with Axelrod, and when the time came, Kerry stepped aside to let Obama lead the effort for the Democratic party. Obama is a very gifted and talented politician, and a masterful chief of a large enterprise. But his task was made easier by Kerry's bold moves, especially on all matters of foreign policy as well as health care. But this is not a time to claim credit. Had Kerry not done what he had done, our position would not be as good as it is right now.

A few weeks ago, somebody posted the final poll numbers for various states from Nov. 1, 2004. I have to tell you guys, that they were close, but it definitely leaned toward Bush in places like Ohio and Florida. 2 out of 3 polls for each state were correct. I just think this time around, we are more sophisticated analysts of polls with sites like 538 and pollster.com. Had I been more savvy, I would have realized the night before the election that the odds were a Bush win. So as much as I think some awful things went down in Ohio (the most effective being voter suppression), I just can't say with any confidence that it was stolen. For me, the evidence has not been there. As to the Diebold machines, they are still used in Virginia and Georgia with no paper trail. So we are not out of the woods with these unreliable machines (again, I have seen no compelling evidence of stealing by machine the vote; I just don't think they are good for democracy with all of their flaws).

In short, Barack Obama is in a far superior position according to a vast plethora of polls than even George W. Bush was in 2004 (who led in more polls than not). So, unless we screw it up by not doing our part in the ground game, I am cautiously optimistic that this election will go our way.

Peace.

[YvonneCa]

5. We are definitely not out of the woods. But...

...if we are able to reform the election system (after a hoped for Democratic win), that will go a long way towards preserving our democracy. JMHO.

[Vektor]

6. I have no doubt in my mind

that 2004 was flat out stolen - with the final electoral vote count being 253 for Kerry and 276 for Bush, Ohio was THE deciding state, and Bush only won it by 1.5%.

I am convinced there was just enough tampering with a combination of hackable machines, disenfranchising, and other Repub. chicanery to sway a few very close states a much needed point or two, and Blackwell was instrumental in allowing Ohio to be the final "coup de grace" if you will, for Rove, Bush et. al.

When Walden O'Dell, CEO of Diebold and, (in a shockingly blatant conflict of interest,) also chairman of the Bush re-election committee for the state of Ohio publicly promised his "base" at a Republican fundraiser that he would "absolutely deliver Ohio's electoral votes to President Bush" I felt a chill run down my spine, and knew right then that the fix was in, long before Nov, 2004.

Once Diebold came under investigation the following year for "irregularities" in their voting machines and O'Dell's unsavory alliance with Bush, he promptly resigned as CEO of Diebold.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2005-12-14-diebold-odell_x.htm

So, for me, the evidence is there. While it may be circumstantial, I always trust my gut, and I have found it to be the most accurate bellwether of all.

I do agree that 2004 was closer than 2008, and therefore, easier for Bushco to tamper with the totals, regardless of the methodology used. Regardless of what you or I personally believe, I think we all can agree that if each and every vote had been counted correctly, and every single person who showed up to wait in VERY LONG lines had actually been able to cast a vote, we may have had a different result. We may still have questions, concerns, or even disagreements about exactly what went wrong, and where, but we can all agree that we did NOT get the result we wanted, and we cannot be assured that things were conducted properly and accurately.

Re: the e-machines, I do believe they are susceptible to hacking, but more importantly, they do not provide a paper trail, and do not work properly. They need to go. We just don't need computers counting our votes, and we do need a paper trail. Our votes are just too important to trust to e-machines.

[beachmom]

9. I understand. But as an accountant, I don't see the hard numbers

to back up any conspiracy that Ohio was stolen. The truth is this will never be resolved, and we will never know. But because it was so close and because there are known shenanigans that went down in that state, a shadow will always be cast on Bush's presidency for both 2000 (Florida) and 2004 (Ohio). Karl Rove decided he wanted to win a 50 + 1 election, and govern the same way. It proved to be an absolute disaster, and I am really hoping that Obama has a more resounding victory on Tuesday, so that only the most demented wingnut will think it was stolen via the All Powerful ACORN. That is my hope.

[Vektor]

10. We likely will never know with 100% certainty...

what exactly happened, though I think we can all agree, our system is broken, and it's really hard to have faith that our elections are being conducted properly.

I would love to see an investigation into 2004, (and election integrity in general) with a Dem. president and a Dem controlled congress who will not be so inclined to roadblock any effort to uncover the truth, like the current crowd has done. I think we'd all be surprised at the findings!

Ah, yes, the almighty ACORN. :rofl: Mickey Mouse and Darth Vader stole the election for Obama. :-)

[YvonneCa]

11. I agree with you, Vektor, that the election system is ...

...broken. But I've come to think that it may have been by design. HAVA was a way to repair elections after 2000...and it was a Republican plan that relied on privatizing the system. Everything these people did was about privatizing things...getting government smaller and making a profit in the meantime. And no...I have no way to know the intent. But the result was what happened in Ohio in 2004.

Have you seen the film 'FreeForAll' ? It's about our election process and how to fix it.

[Vektor]

12. No, I haven't seen that film.

Perhaps I ought to check it out.

[YvonneCa]

15. I give the filmmaker, John Ennis, a lot...

...of credit for what he did after 2004 by making a film. What I like about it is that it explains much of Ohio in an easy to understand narrative AND that he comes to the story in a 'citizen duty', patriotic perspective. It also explains how he became involved in 'Video the Vote' in 2006.

What I didn't like was his treatment of John Kerry. I could stand his disappointment in the concession...but I thought he was VERY unfair about the taser incident. I thought that guy was seeking attention. It would have been a better film without that part.

[beachmom]

13. A bit of history from Pollster.com this morning. This is encouraging for tomorrow:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/morning_status_update_for_mond_1.php

I will have more to say about the final round of national polls later, but for now let me underscore yesterday's warning about the danger's of cherry-picking. The pace of releases and the not entirely comparable field dates make apple-to-apple trend comparisons difficult, but the table above obviously shows shifts in McCain's direction on some surveys (as compared to their most recent sample with non-overlapping field dates), and shifts to Obama on others. With the exception of the outlying IBD/TIPP survey, Obama's leads by comfortable margins on all of these final or nearly final polls. Four years ago, George Bush held a average 1.5 percentage point lead on the final round of national polls. Obama's lead on these 12 surveys averages 7.3 points -- virtually the same margin (7.2) that he receives on our overall national trend estimate as of this writing.

Here is his 2005 post, when final tallies were made official:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/01/final_results.html

It has Bush's final percent win as 2.45%.

This tabulation includes roughly 5 million votes that were not included in the final news media reports released on November 11 (the difference is presumably some combination of provisional ballots and late arriving absentees). As Ruy pointed out, the additional votes narrowed President Bush's victory margin slightly, from 2.95% (using the numbers posted by USA Today) to 2.45%.

Notice how volatile the polls were in '04:

I updated the table from my earlier post (see below) using the new official tally. The problem with applying the real 2.4% margin is that the national polls are typically rounded to the nearest whole digit. If we round down and assume a 2-point margin, the distribution of surveys looks more "normal": 7 had Kerry too high, 4 had Bush too high and three reported 2-point margins. I don't want to make too much of this - the main point is that the average margin reported by the polls in the final week (1.5%) looks closer to the final official result (2.5%) than it did in November (when it was reported as 2.95%).

What is heartening for tomorrow is how much more stable Obama's lead is. Based on the difference between the polls and the actual results, the "cheating", if you will, was at best 1% in '04, and that will not do the trick for Republicans in 2008. And I do think Bush had a superior ground game in '04, getting out the churchy people in the exurbs to vote. I find that very believable based on my familiarity with this voting bloc. McCain has no equivalent organization this year, and states like Ohio and Florida seem to be a little bit fairer this year than in '04. So, in short, I am cautiously optimistic.

[Vektor]

18. That's where I am too - Cautiously Optimistic.

Keeping all digits crossed.

[MonteLukast]

17. I read an apt quote somewhere...

Something about how pioneers seldom get to enjoy the fruits of their labors.

Especially in terms of pioneers being alone, even isolated, Kerry certainly was a pioneer. All alone to fight the Republicans, with scant help from the DNC and occasional help from John Edwards.

And in many ways, Kerry was a guinea pig-- for the limits of our political discourse.
Very few of us actually believed that the Swift Boat Liars' tricks would actually work. That so many otherwise decent, good-hearted people would so easily turn into unthinking lemmings, would so easily react in Pavlovian fashion to "Elect a Democrat and you help the terrorists". That was the truly disheartening thing about 2004: the sense that half our friends and neighbors betrayed us, and themselves.

One flaw of us Americans, is that we have to experience something firsthand to really appreciate it.

We experienced firsthand John Kerry being treated like that.

Now he's behind Obama so that he doesn't have to experience swiftboating firsthand. (He's experiencing enough general lunacy firsthand as it is.)

So Kerry blazed the trail, but he didn't reap the ultimate prize... and apparently, pioneers hardly ever do. It's sad.

[ginnyinWI]

14. That election was traumatic.

It's made me a lot more cautious about getting my hopes up, but I have become optimistic again this time. What I learned last time is that a close election can be stolen by spoiling enough legitimate ballots and other tricks--tricks that happen every time and will happen this time too. So I've been watching and waiting for Obama to have a lead far enough ahead so that when they steal some votes it won't be enough to steal the election.

It looks like we've got it this time around. Kerry's campaign was a useful stepping stone that helped us get where we want to go--into the era of the next Democratic majority. I don't think he begrudges Obama for a minute, but sees Obama's victory as his own, because we all win--even those who vote for McCain. Everyone will benefit when Obama and the Dem Congress get things cleaned up. On MTP Sunday I saw a man set to become a major force for change in the Senate--a party elder with a lot of clout--so I'm happy for him. I've never seen him so steady, so confident, so at peace.

[YvonneCa]

16. "On MTP Sunday I saw a man set to become a major force for change in the Senate...

...a party elder with a lot of clout--so I'm happy for him. I've never seen him so steady, so confident, so at peace."


I saw that guy, too, ginny...and all I can say is IT'S ABOUT TIME. :7 My hopes are also pretty high on this election eve. :patriot:

[MBS]

19. Twice in two days, near Boston, I saw the same pair of bumperstickers

One an MA license plate, one from CT. Both bumpers of both cars had>
1. one side: Kerry-Edwards, for a Stronger America (sticker in good shape, neither faded nor torn)
2. on the other side: Obama-Biden

Kerry and Obama, side by side. Side by side, moving us forward.