Great poll news with Kerry!!

[FreedomAngel82]

I'm listening to Stephanie Miller's show from Friday and hour three. Half way through the hour she is giving poll raitings and there is some good news for Kerry! According to the poll she's reading:

Kerry recieved 89% of the vote from self identified democrats. The highest total of any democratic nominee since 1944.

Dealing with Bush the democrats gave him the lowest marks any party has given the lowest presidential nominee.

[wisteria]

1. What kind of poll was it, what does this mean? n/t

[TayTay]

2. He mostly got the Reagan Dems back

Or that the lines between liberals and conservatives are solidifying. (Each party is becoming more and more identified with their base, Libs for Dems, Cons for Rethugs.)

As to what it means, who knows. Random stats are hard to assign meaning to without more info.

[wisteria]

3. Thanks! n/t

[jillan]

4. Well he's got my vote - that's for sure.

That is amazing about Bsh.

Anybody catch Bill Maher this weekend? He was pretty funny.
Arianna Huffington was on ( she is gorgeous!). Bill asked her what was going on about the leak and in the same sentence said "Can we just skip to the part where Bsh gets impeached?" The audience went wild.

[beachmom]

5. Yes, I caught Bill Maher, too!

Arianna did look fantastic. And did you hear Maher defend Kerry's IWR vote at the end? That was great. So many Dems go along with the Rove strategy that a yes vote on IWR meant they were for the war * brought us, and it was so good that Maher was willing to call out what bulls**t that is.

It was a great show.

[jillan]

6. No - I recorded it.

I watched it at 1:00 am, had to get up at 7:00 am to go to work (yes I have lovely bags under the eyes today). I must've dozed off at the end. I never made it to new rules - my favorite part of the whole show. I'll watch the end later tonite. I'm glad he said that about Kerry.

Did you by any chance catch Hardball yesterday? WOW!!!! Matthews loves politics. He is all over Plamegate. He is playing some serious Hardball, and he is on the side of Wilson. If not - I'll find you a clip.

[FreedomAngel82]

7. I personally don't trust Matthews

He changes with the wind. I don't recall where the poll was from. If you want you can go to http://www.stephaniemiller.com and go to the archives and click on Friday (10/21) and listen to the third hour towards the middle and she reads poll raitings. I think it's very impressive how Kerry still has that high of a percentage with the democrats since he "lost". I saw Maher and enjoyed it. Although Tucker did get on my nervous a few times. Is that guy hyper active or what? :crazy: When he talked about the IWR vote I wanted to scream at him! Kerry stated it perfectly once: "We gave him permission to load the gun not shoot himself in the foot."

[karynnj]

16. Thanks for the link

I can see why people here are impressed by her - that segment was so much better than most radio, it's not funny. The number for Kerry was the % of self reported Democrats who say they voted for Kerry. I think this is higher than the exit poll %, so either it's a somewhat weird sample or the self delusion is happening historically earlier.

I heard George McGovern say that every poll asking who voted McGovern/Nixon that FOLLOWED the real election got better and better for him - to the point he would have won more than DC and Massachusetts.

I also think that the fact that people pushing other candidates are going so far out of their way to either belittle Kerry's chances or to repeat every right wing argument. (On Sunday with lots of time to kill at Borders, I spent too much time looking at Estrich's The Case for Hillary - which is an awful book in terms of analysis - although getting political insight from the woman who ran Dukakis's campaign and who is now on Fox news would seem stupid on the surface.)

She absolutely trashes Kerry -
- She suggests he is deluded that he could run again, makes fun of his PAC, his "running around the country to help other candidates".
- In a stunning 2 pages of nastiness, she talks about how, although first ladies (and VPs) rarely swing elections, you can tell a lot about a person by whom he marries. She then talks about how BILL CLINTON married the smartest girl in class (Hillary was not the top student but the head of student government.), showing how strong he was. She then basically says Kerry married Teresa for money rather than love, without explaining why Teresa would settle for this. (I never thought I would see an argument for Hillary because her marriage was better than anyone else's.) She makes a point of Teresa now using the last name Heinz and wants to "trade" her back to the Republicans. She also, says that Kerry can't "control" her because she has the checkbook. She is absolutely brutal to Teresa.

- She said all Kerry had was "electability" and he certainly doesn't have that now. (She misses the irony that Hillary is mostly pushed on electability by all the people who want Bill back.)

- Kerry was electable partially because he was a vet, but "now we know about the SBVT". So, she was involved with Massachusetts politics and never knew before the election that Kerry VN past was complicated?

- But she does say it's good if he's in the race, because he will run to the left of Hillary (making her look more moderate) and Hillary will get good press early on when she defeats him easilly in NH. She also wants him to run because he makes the race LOOK more crowded. (I guess implying this will deter others from entering). (She is less nasty to Edwards, but makes some pretty strange suggestions of what he could do to make himself more electable - the strangest was for him to spend a year in Israel to learn about dealing with Terrorism. She also places Edwards to the left of Hillary - which he isn't.)

[TayTay]

17. Estrich is awful. She was on the Dukakis campaign

and ran that into the ground. If she is trashing Kerry then that means that her invetive and poison levels must be peaking again.

She is one of the most incompetent campaign advisors I had ever heard of. (If you want to hear people trashed, check out Dems on Estrich. She is univerally derided as having a political tin ear.)

Her book and nasty musings, especailly the ones about Teresa are just more proof that some people find the only way they can get attention is to go negative.

Hillary has a shot. But Hill and Bill have some pretty nasty baggage and that will come out. There are money trails after all.

[karynnj]

18. Hillary clearly has a good shot

I was just shocked that Estrich would take the path she did in that section - where she eliminated the alternatives. I detailed the Kerry attack because there was no other way to convey what she was doing. It just seemed she been at Fox too long.

I heard an interview (mostly on Amtrack) with Dukakis earlier this year - when asked about 2004, he said that Kerry had run a good campaign, which he hadn't. Dukakis's campaign (not Dukakis himself) was abysmal and she ran it. Wasn't he like 17 points ahead at the convention?

Kerry was a Senator, but he had been Dukakis's lt Gov was he used as a surrogate or anything in that campaign. I'm surprised that she went to the personal (and was - if anything - more hateful to Teresa) rather than just saying the obvious that there's always a desire for a fresh face.

[TayTay]

19. I'm not shocked at all about Estrich

She is a blatant opportunist and she is trying to hitch her comeback wagon to the Hillary machine. I have no respect for her, she was a mean and vicious person when she was with Dukakis and she is still mean and vicious. It will be interesting to see if Hillary takes the bait and asks Estrich to come aboard to fulfill an attack dog role. I hope not. Estrich has a lot of baggage and is not well liked at all.

Kerry was Dukakis' Lt. Gov, though they ran separately up until the general election. (They didn't combine campaign staff until Sept of 82, the ge was in Nov.) They worked well together and Kerry was free to establish himself as a political force aside from Dukakis. (He did a lot on environmental issues.)

When the Senate seat came up in '83-84 due to Sen. Tsongas' illness, Dukakis looked somewhat fondly on KErry running for it. (He had to be neutral in public, but he liked Kerry and supported him.) Kerry did stump for Dukakis and worked hard for him in '88, which became a problem for Kerry in his '90 re-election campaign. (Just after Dukakis lost, Massachusetts went into a severe economic recession. The voters felt that Dukakis had neglected the State during his PRes run and blamed him for the recession. Kerry had been closely associated with Dukakis, so he took a little bit of collateral damage from the intense Dukakis fall within Mass. Kerry's opponent in '90 tried to tie him to everything Dukakis had done and take advantage of a very anti-incumbent political year. It didn't work, or it didn't work as well as the Rethugs hoped as Kerry easily defeated his '90 opponent. But, a lot of the stuff that was used against Kerry in 2004 was born in that '90 race. He's aloof, he's not able to connect to ordinary voters, he's too focused on cerebral concerns about foreign policy, blah, blah, blah. Sigh! The Rethugs who ran against him in '90 included some people who still work for the 'thugs in DC today. Andy Card, Dan Bartlett and Grover Norquist, as I have said before, are all from Mass. They held a grudge.)

[karynnj]

23. I knew Card and Norquist (from your posts) were from Mass

but didn't know that Bartlett was too. Well, I guess God felt you needed something to keep the average morality and decency and intelligence down. Those are really bad guys. (To make up for the good guys)

Do you think Hillary (or Bill) wouldn't see that Estrich is a loser. If Estrich was mean and vicious, why didn't she direct it at G.H.W.B.? It would only have been fair seeing the slime he was throwing.

[TayTay]

28. She is one of those operatives who is always SYA

'Save your arse' oriented. I have no respect for her. I can forward some stuff on her in '88 that shows she was stubborn, didn't like to deligate and was very just a miserable campaign manager. I just don't like her.

Se, you think we have law of conservation of good pols in MA. You might be right. I think we have produced some good ones, but we have our share of bad ones as well. (The ones listed upthread are major bad guys.) Problems is, they share traits with the MA good guys, tenacious, smart, good and long memories and a relentless desire to succeed. Sigh!

[Mass]

21. Estrich both loves Clinton and has a problem with Kerry

(the kind of personal problem (or one of her girl-friend has, rather) she exposes in the link and that is totally irrelevant to Kerry's ability to win, whether true or not) and hates Teresa. Except that, she is an idiot.
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/2/3/214148.shtml

That she writes columns that are syndicated in Newsmax and is a regular on FOX is not fortuitous, but a sign that she is the same type of "Democratic" strategist as Dick Morris.

[whometense]

20. Sorry to be profane,

but that's f***ing bullshit (not you Karyn; I'm referring to her book). Susan Estrich also happens to be the author of this piece (sorry for the NewsMax source, but that's where it appeared) Interestingly, the article now appears to have been scrubbed, but I had it archived on my computer.

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/2/3/214148.shtml:

Reprinted from NewsMax.com

Teresa Heinz Kerry

Susan Estrich
Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2004

It's hard enough to get used to the idea that a presidential candidate is your own age, as John Edwards is. It's even harder to get used to the idea that he's someone you've known for years, as I'd known Bill Clinton.

But try getting used to the fact that a candidate for president used to date, and dumped, one of your close girlfriends, and ended up married to one of the richest women in town. That's how well I know John Kerry, who I first met at least 25 years ago. Of course I could blame him for bad dating behavior, but that's never how it works. Feminism notwithstanding, it's always hard to like the woman who ultimately lands the guy. She has to be quite a woman. Teresa Heinz Kerry is.

Luckily for John Kerry, George W. Bush was young and stupid once, too, and he wasn't even single. So this isn't a political issue but a personal one. I've known John Kerry long enough to know him when he was married, single and married again. I remember his man-about-town days in Boston and in Washington. I was the one who used to go back and forth, telling my girlfriend in Boston about the likes of Morgan Fairchild in D.C.

Don't waste your life on him, we all used to say. The handwriting is on the wall, if not in all the Washington papers. Her childbearing years were coming to the end. She was a grown-up, a lawyer, his former law partner, but that has nothing to do with being smart about men when you're in love.

This is all public record. I'm not revealing anything here that Karl Rove doesn't know about. This is not Monica Lewinsky. Everybody was age-appropriate, everything was consensual. No laws were broken. Only hearts. My friend eventually found a nice husband and had two kids.

John found Teresa.

At first, everyone laughed. Just a coincidence that she has a half-billion dollars, people snickered. I wonder if he's seeing green, cynical friends of mine asked. I hope he's miserable, more than one said. Stories were passed around about how Teresa still referred to her late husband, Sen. John Heinz of Pennsylvania, as "her husband," how she talked openly about Botox, how she would certainly kill John if she caught him looking at another woman.

A marriage of convenience, many people assumed. An expression of his ambition, they said. How will this half a billionaire connect with farm women in Iowa and rural women in New Hampshire, Kerry critics asked viciously.

Just fine, as it turned out.

I caught up with Teresa Heinz Kerry in New Hampshire. No Judy Steinberg Dean she. No Hillary, either. From the beginning, she was at her husband's side in this campaign, supporting him, because she wanted to be. She speaks from the heart. She has been winning support for her husband from women with whom she has nothing particular in common because they sense her authenticity, which matters more than her accent and her bank account. This is a real marriage, a real partnership. At least that's what all the women I talked to said.

They're right. Imagine that. I was in the backroom in Nashua when I caught the two of them in an unguarded moment. They didn't realize that anybody was watching. They embraced. At length. With real passion.

Most politicians embrace their wives when they see the cameras and prefer to talk to their aides in private. John and Teresa kiss in private. They're hot. I couldn't help but smile. How can you not like a hot 60-year-old couple? Watch out, Karl. This is what women want.

COPYRIGHT 2004 CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC.

Now let's talk about Estrich's credibility.

[karynnj]

24. That is special!

She is utterly corrupt to have written the earlier article. It's strange because the comments in the book really reflect more on her anyway. Before reading the article you post, I thought it was just nastiness - with the article it's nastiness that she knew was false.

[whometense]

25. Exactly.

I remembered the earlier article because I thought it was one of the few things written during the campaign that took a look at how John and Teresa really interacted with each other, and because I thought it was both true and sweet. It's also a pretty fair and accurate portrayal of his romantic history. It's documented and locally at least well known that his former law partner was crazy about him, and that he broke her heart. She's since recovered nicely, though, and is married and has kids.

To have written that other stuff in the new book shows that she is utterly corrupt.

For those so inclined, a Times UK article about JK's romantic life here: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-985332_1,00.html

[Mass]

26. She also wrote many article on her during the campaign saying how

THK was a problem because she was not controllable by the campaign and how all other candidates' wives were better.

She wrote another editorial just after the convention on how THK did not speak about Kerry during the speech and it was bad, for example.

This article was just in NH when she realized she better say something nice about Kerry because he was going the nominee. It is pure opportunism, and note how she repeats all the BS about Kerry's bachelor period before these few words (I remember the article well because of the lines you quoted).

[karynnj]

27. But when you boil it all down - this lawyer and his 2 wives

say only nice things about him. It's interesting that her "good friend" neglects to mention that her husband ran Kerry's campaign in RI - which kind of wouldn't happen if she disliked him. I think all of us have dumped someone or been dumped.

There were stories of how wary he was of marriage after his first one failed, until Teresa was able to get him to trust in their relationship. It sounds from Thorne's comments as if he wasn't over his first wife in that time period.

[TayTay]

29. That's Estrich for ya

Reducing the pursuit for the highest office in the land to an outtake from a bad prom night. (You know, my friend Sue used to like Mikey who was best friends with John and he said that .... and so forth. Geesh. what an idiot.) Who in their right mind could take this witch seriously. (Honestly, no wonder she failed as a real political operative and had to go to Faux News to make her living.)

That said, there is a really cool line in that British article. (Hey, I'm only human over here. If I ever had money.... :9 :evilgrin: :blush: :blush: :blush: Oh and is there anyone in the Commonwealth of Mass who doesn't have a 'when he was single story'? Geez, I didn't think Senators had that much free time. On the other hand, there are no 'wronged woman' stories, so that says something. All his exes seem to have nothing but positive things to say about him. That says something.)

[Island Blue]

30. I also found it interesting that his ex-girlfriend's husband

ran Kerry's campaign in RI. To me, that fact really speaks volumes about the kind of person JK is now and must have been when they were dating.

To me, it didn't seem like the issue of John Kerry's love life (past or present) really gained much traction as an issue in the '04 campaign. I'm speaking generally of course, I know there were some slams in regard to Teresa's money, etc., but at the end of the day his relationships didn't really seem to matter to voters. Did anyone else get that feeling? I'm sure in some RW circles there was a lot of talk about it, but in general it didn't appear to be a big deal.

[whometense]

31. They tried.

But there was no traction whatsoever. They are two people who clearly have a lot in common and genuinely love each other. It's so obvious that no one would believe that anyway.

As far as his past goes, I think what TayTay said is important - if none of his exes have a bad thing to say about him it's hard to gin up a controversy. And also - that other line in the British piece about how he wasn't a creepy womanizer type - he was a lonely guy at loose ends amd trying to fix his life. Who couldn't indentify with that?

[TayTay]

32. Yeah, that was kind of sweet.

Besides, it contrasted with the RW taling point that Kerry was a stiff. You can't be a wooden figure and be a Lothario because it doesn't mix. (Of course, neither story is true, but what do RWers care about truth.)

I liked Kerry's line about his past, 'When I was young and single, I was young and single.' Good enough for me.

[jillan]

13. I finished washing it last nite.

I loved it when he said "That was what the whole I voted for it before I voted against it, was about." And some voice in the audience shrieked!

I'm so happy Maher said that. That has been my rant on Kerry's vote all over the place.

[globalvillage]

8. I heard it, but she wasn't clear on the source.

All she said was "a recent US poll".
Sounded great, though. Talking about how dems are more unified than ever (outside of DU, apparently), despite the RW spin.
Wonder who those 12% Dems are that support the chimp?

[Island Blue]

9. I was wondering who the 12% were as well.

Obviously some very heavily medicated folks, or else 12% of Democrats are of the Zell Miller variety.

[ginnyinWI]

10. most likely Dixiecrats

Correct me if I'm wrong,somebody-- but this group is a group of Southerners who have been Democrats for generations due to Lincoln being Republican. But since Johnson and Civil Rights, many are shifting to being Repubs, or at least voting that way. That, plus the conservative churches have gotten more vocal(political) since 1980, convincing more and more that it is unChristian to vote Dem. They might stay registered as Dems--who knows why--but don't vote that way.

[Island Blue]

11. You're probably right about that.

I think Zell would fit nicely into that category. I'm not really sure why some folks continue to remain registered Democrat but vote Republican, although I think more and more that's changing and folks are registering as Republicans (if that's what they are). We're a wacky bunch down here, that's for sure!

[globalvillage]

12. Just a thought.

These DINOS may think they can advance their repub agendas by voting in Dem primaries against the more liberal candidates.
I don't trust 'em.

[Island Blue]

14. I think there is some of that for sure.

Also for probably that same reason, a lot of candidates for local offices seem to be DINOs. That makes it bad because if they win a primary, what you have in the general election is basically two Republicans. I guess that too is part of their evil plan of world domination.

[TheDonkey]

15. are those supposed to be approval ratings

I don't understand how Bush can be a nominee?

[FreedomAngel82]

22. Approval raitings

Oh sorry, I was trying to keep up with what I was hearing on the program so it's probably "president".

[TheDonkey]

33. thanks for clearing that up. Good news (nt)