Republican Lies About African-Americans Appearing Everywhere by Chris Bowers, Thu Feb 03, 2005 at 12:31:11 PM EST
In a must read article in the Los Angles Times about Republican strategy to structurally alter the two coalitions in their favor, comes another in the latest series of crap about supposed Republican gains among African-American voters:
The president's faith-based initiative, which encourages government funding for religious social service agencies, and his opposition to legalizing same-sex marriage are popular with socially conservative African Americans, who have for decades leaned Democratic but are increasingly viewed as potential GOP voters. Many black parents, whose children attend struggling public schools, also agree with Republicans' support for school vouchers.
Aarrggghhhh. I can't stand this sort of thing. I have read articles about this stuff forever. I distinctly remember several times in the nineties when Gingrich claimed that African-Americans were trending Republican. I remember reading write-ups suggesting it was an actual phenomenon even in places like The Guardian. I know very smart progressives who even make this claim. What I can't stand about it is how it is utterly devoid of any factual basis. What I can't stand about it even more is how it is just another in a long line of Republican lies used to help spin the broader demographic narrative so that Republicans appear to be the natural ruling party both of today and of the future. (more sarcastically, read here)
First, the facts. In 2000, according to exit polls, 10% of the roughly 105.4M people whose votes were counted self-identified as African-American, meaning that roughly 10.54 million African-Americans had their votes counted. According to these same exit polls, 90% of African-Americans voted for Gore, or around 9.5 million, and 9% voted for Bush, or around 0.95 million. Gore thus defeated Bush by around 8.5 million votes among African-Americans.
In 2004, according to exit polls, of the roughly 122.3 million people whose votes were counted, 11% self-identified as African-American, meaning that roughly 13.5 million African-Americans had their votes counted. Of those 13.5 million, 88% voted for Kerry, or roughly 11.9 million, while 11% voted for Bush, or around 1.5 million. Thus, while Republicans did manage a very slight percentage gain among African-Americans compared to Democrats, the total gain was overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats.
2.4 million more African-Americans voted for Kerry than Gore and 0.55 million more African-Americans voted for Bush in 2004 than in 2000. Thus, Kerry's overall gain was about four and a half times greater than Bush's gain. Kerry's margin among African-Americans over Bush was two million votes greater than Gore's in total votes. In fact, Kerry's winning margin among African-Americans was equal to the total African-American vote in 2000, and we are somehow supposed to believe that Republicans gained among African Americans?
As things stand, Republicans can propose whatever issues they want to try and appeal to African-Americans, but they will never, ever see a significant gain among African-Americans for two important reasons. First, Republicans do not live in African-American neighborhoods. Second, Republicans are afraid to go into African-American neighborhoods, except as poll watchers on Election Day. By contrast, Democrats were able to win another 2.5 million African-American votes beyond an already exceptionally high total because we live in African-American neighborhoods and because of programs like ACT and America Votes. In these efforts, Democratic volunteers and staffers focused a disproportionate amount of their energy registering, canvassing, and GOTVing (is that a word?) in African-American neighborhoods.
No voucher program will ever replace the support earned through neighbors, volunteers and community associations in face-to-face conversations. No amount of railing against gay marriage will ever make up for the numerous times when Republicans openly attempted to suppress the African-American vote, bashed affirmative action, pushed a rampant pro-corporate agenda, and talked about the vileness of cities. And no facts suggest African-American support slipping among Democrats. In fact, voting data suggests significant Democratic improvement among African-Americans.
I may be a little shrill today, but it is because of crap like this that we are losing the long-term demographic narrative, big-time. From 2001-2002, Ruy Teixeira and John Judis helped Democrats win it big-time. As I wrote a few weeks ago, this is important stuff:
First, while supplementing the "mandate" narrative, it paints a national picture of a still growing Republican majority. Second, and more disturbingly, by dominating the national discussion over changing political demographics, these talking points serve as propagandistic frames that allow large numbers of people to think of themselves as naturally Republican, no matter what their current voting tendencies may actually be. We all know that people who live in exurbs tend to vote Republican, so if Republicans can convince as many people as possible that they live in exurbs than they are one step closer to becoming the "natural" governing party both now and in the future. We saw this take place with "security moms," a Luntz frame that first laid its eggs inside the brains of, and then whose offspring eventually crawled out the mouth of, nearly every talking head during the election campaign. By dominating the way people think of themselves in relation to the national political demographic narrative, through terms like "exurbs" and "security moms," Republicans are controlling the contemporary and future political narratives in this country.
Take this seriously. This is a front where we need to keep fighting back.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2005/2/3/123111/9767 There are embedded links in the article.