Iran Missles Could Hit Europe, Israel Says: news parsing

[uppityperson]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002956900_webiranmissiles27.html

Iran missiles could hit Europe, Israel says

By Aron Heller
The Associated Press

JERUSALEM – Iran has received its first batch of North Korean-made surface-to-surface missiles that put European countries within firing range, Israel's military intelligence chief said in an interview published today.

The BM-25 missiles have a range of 1,550 miles and are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, the Haaretz daily reported....

OK, on the 1 hand I can see the concern. On the other, what nuclear warheads are they talking about? Oh yes, that's right, the ones Iran may develope in the future so we have to nuke them now. Look though, later on in the article, if you read beyond the first couple paragraphs, you find this:

Military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, who spoke to Haaretz, has warned of the new Iranian missiles in several recent interviews to the media. Iran already has missiles capable of reaching Israel, but the BM-25s are a significant upgrade over its existing top-of-the-line missiles — the Shihab-4 and Shihab-3. Those missiles spurred Israel to develop its Arrow-2 anti-ballistic missile system, which is (sic) can intercept the Iranian missiles.

So, anyone want to bet the bushites use this as another excuse and many people do NOT read beyond the headline or first couple paragraphs? Keep reading and talking to people.

[Selatius]

1. Iranians probably don't have the technology to fit a nuke onto those yet

Iran doesn't even have a bomb yet, and if they did, their first bombs would probably be too big, bulky for those missiles to carry. You'd need a compact, efficient design that is small enough to be carried on an ICBM yet is efficient enough to have a large yield. Generally, nations with experience in nuclear weapons have developed compact, efficient designs for bombs. (Russia, US, China, France, and the UK)

[uppityperson]

2. Exactly.

I am guilty of reading only headlines, know others are also. I hate this crap.

[leveymg]

3. This is non-news. Iran already has a similar missile. Story is 4 mos old.

A. Iran already has a similar missile

According to the Federation of American Scientists, the Iranians already had the Shahab-4, Korean-derived missiles that have virtually the same range cited for the BM-25, about 1500 miles. In February 2002, Iran claimed it stopped developing the Shahab 4. http://www.iran-press-service.com/articles_2002/Feb_2002/iran_missiles_24202.htm But, other sources show that Iran has test fired that model, even if it is not believed to be in series production. Why would Iran now be importing another model that virtually duplicates something they already have?

According to FAS: http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/missile/shahab-4.htm

Shahab-4
Technical Details

Range (km) 2,200-2,896
CEP (m) unknown
Diam. (m) 1.3/.88
Height (m) 25
Launch Weight Mass (kg) 22,000
Thrust (Kg f) 26,000
Burn time (sec.) 293
Thrust Chamb. 1, 1, 1
Stages 2, 3
Fuel Heptyl
Oxidizer IRFNA
Third Stage Solid Motor*
Type IRBM
* May have been derived from existing Chinese designs.


The Iranian Shahab-4 missile is believed to be a derivation of the 1,350-1,500 kilometer range North Korean No-dong missile delivering a 1,000-760 kg warhead and the follow on Taep'o-dong-1/Paeutusan-1 launch vehicles. The first indications of the development of the Shahab-4 came in The Washington Times on September 11, 1997 when it stated the following: "The Shahab-3 and 4 programs appear to be getting considerable assistance from China and Russia."(1)



. . . The only application where the Iranian's could apply this acquired production technology is in the Shahab-5 and Shahab-6 boosters programs. However this assumes the Iranians can or desire to duplicate that technology. Certainly this production technology could take three to five years under the most optimal of conditions to duplicate assuming it has the political will, economic vitality, facilities infrastructure, materials, in addition to the trained, educated and experienced personnel to support an expensive effort of this magnitude. However, to assimilate that production technology it may take Tehran years beyond their intended design development cycle for those launch vehicles presently under development or planned. Therefore, they are left with no other alternative but to work with the in hand existing North Korean launch vehicle technology, that they currently possess, and their rework of it to create the Shahab-4 and Shahab-5 programs in cooperation with North Korea.

B. This report appeared in the European press and Defense News four months ago. That also makes it non-news.

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=1415703&C=mideast

Posted 12/16/05 09:55Print this story Iran Bought Missiles From North Korea: Press

By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, BERLIN


Iran has bought 18 BM-25 missiles from North Korea which the Islamic Republic wants to transform to extend their range, the German press reported Dec. 16.
”Iran has bought 18 disassembled BM-25 missiles from North Korea with a range of 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles),” Bild newspaper said, citing a report from the German secret services.
It added that Iran’s ultra conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to have the range of the missiles “extended to 3,500 kilometers”.
The newspaper said that until now Iran only had Shehab-3 missiles with a range of 1,300 kilometers.
It further cited the secret service report as warning that “with a longer range, and the probability that (Tehran) would try to equip the missiles with nuclear warheads, there is the risk that Iran could strike at Israel and parts of central Europe.”
It added that according to the German intelligence services, Iranian experts were already working on fitting the missiles with nuclear warheads.
The report comes amid outrage at remarks by Ahmadinejad calling the Holocaust a “myth”, and a warning from Tehran on Friday that it would respond in a “swift and destructive” way if attacked by Israel.

This seems to be a case of strategically-timed news releases that feed back to foreign intelligence agencies. I wouldn't attach a high confidence to either the December Bild report or the one yesterday. But, do expect this to reappear again.

[uppityperson]

5. I know, but it was in today's paper

BOO! *ers (insane bushite fundamentalists and media lapdogs)

[leveymg]

6. Just pointing out its internal

irregularities and questionable origins.

Thanks for putting it up. As I said, we'll see this one again.:hi:

[uppityperson]

7. and thank you for pointing it out too.

yup, bet they'll keep pulling this one out.

ps, BOO!!!111

[Karmakaze]

8. I have to disagree with you on this one...

The Shahab-4 was based on the No-Dong, but increased its range by a thousand kilometres. If Iran can do the same with this BM-25, then they would have a misslie capable of 3500 kilometres, which is a thousand kilometres more than the Shahab-4.

The point is, this BM-25 is not intended to be used as is, but as a basis for further development.

What is unspoken in that article is why would Iran WANT to strike at central Europe? Seriously. That is the hidden propaganda. The fact they are devloping a new missile is nothing special, all countries do that, it is the target that we are being misled about.

[leveymg]

9. I agree that the point is propoganda about Europe being a target

Why in the world would Iran want to nuke Paris or Berlin? That's absurd. Even the UK is not about to attack Iranian nuclear sites and leadership, so it's also an unlikely target.

I don't know if the development work that went into the Shahab-4 can be applied to the BM-25. The BM-25 already has a reported 1500 mile range, as does the Shahab-4.

My thought was that if these reports are indeed accurate, it shows that Iran never really did develop the Shahab-4 into am operational weapon, so Iran, feeling threatened, had to import a similar "off-the-shelf" missile.

[DELUSIONAL]

4. News Flash -- Israeli missiles/nukes can hit Iran or any other

country.

Any country with nukes has the POTENTIAL of being a threat to the whole world. It all depends on just who controls the trigger.

If by chance a right wing religious wacko in Israel wins an election (in Israel's round about way of choosing leaders) and gets control of the "button" and decides to eliminate any country or leader who is even thinking about attacking Israel or who has threatened Israel -- what is there to stop this scenario from happening.

We are faced with a religious right wing insane wacko in the white house who is now threatening to nuke Iran -- because they have "knowledge" of nukes or have produced a trace amount of whatever -- bushie is far more of a threat to the world than Iran is.

It is not beyond imagination that Israel may someday find that their worst nightmare religious idiot has his finger on the nuclear trigger. Heaven help the world -- because there is no god.

Religiously insane fools are a danger to the whole world.

[Moderator]

10. kick