This is very scary

[Mojorabbit]

NEW YORK, April 27, 2006
Influenza Pandemic Simulation Reveals Challenges in Delivering Essential Services
A simulated influenza pandemic conducted by the World Economic Forum and Booz Allen Hamilton found that a widespread outbreak of avian flu would severely challenge governments and the private sector to manage essential services, limit the spread of the pandemic and communicate essential information.
snip
Telecommunications will likely be overwhelmed early in the pandemic. Some experts speculated that the
Internet could shut down within two to four days of the outbreak. This implies that government and businesses must coordinate and plan for the use of alternative communications channels—and telecommuting will not be a viable option. A method of prioritizing Internet access would be needed to allow key organizations and individuals to access information and communicate necessary actions.
snip
As a result, the government may need to assume national control, as in wartime, of critical infrastructure and resources including food, fuel, and healthcare. In addition, governments will need to assume responsibility for the “last mile” in delivery of food and other critical supplies to the populace.
“Maintaining business continuity is critical to the welfare of the general population,” said Alain Baumann, Director, Healthcare Industries for The World Economic Forum. “The business community will play an essential role in an effective response.”
snip
The recovered will need to fill vacant essential jobs; conscription of the recovered (now in effect vaccinated) will likely be necessary to fill vacant essential jobs. These individuals will probably require a minimal level of training to perform the critical functions.

That's wierd, I can't find the link anymore to the original article...

Original report here http://www.boozallen.com/media/file/Influenza_Pandemic_Simulation.pdf

[Shilohtd16]

1. Personally i think Avian flu has blown over

i am not sure of that and that does not mean there will not be others, but millions of birds have been slaughtered and i think it has been effective.

[Mojorabbit]

7. Actually it is spreading in birds

faster this year and in more places than in all the years since it first appeared.

[Warpy]

8. The reservoir is wild birds and some mammals

so the avian flu is still out there and still spreading, due to become world wide. Don't kid yourself, the potential for pandemic is still there.

However, it's just a potential. The thing that mkes it so lethal is also what makes it an inefficient human pathogen. It infects the deepest respiratory tract where it can't be coughed out in droplet form. That's why there have been so few cases documented of human to human transmission. If it mutates to an upper respiratory virus that is efficiently transmitted, chances are it will also be considerably less lethal.

Remember that the 1918 influenza death rate was only 2 1/2%-5% and that it was enough to lower the life expectancy in the US a solid decade. A less lethal pandemic could also be a disaster.

You can just smell their desire for martial law, can't you?

[acmejack]

Yes, indeed, I can Warpy.

They will impose it at the drop of the drop of a hat, too. Then I suspect we will have the opportunity to learn more than we ever wanted to know about those KBR facilities covered by that latest contact for detention camps in the US od A. It would give them a very convenient method of avoiding the messiness of charges of treason and trials and angry mobs of pissed off Citizens and such...

[Sinti]

29. It sure would take care of their problems in a hurry ;) n/t

[Burma Jones]

2. Not so much scary as an excellent marketing opportunity

for Booz Allen.........

[gkhouston]

13. actually, I was thinking it was scary that

someone was taking advice from the Boozers. The coupla times I interacted with those folks in the past, the consultants they sent were definitely bottom of the barrel. Hope they weren't representative. :scared:

[Radio_Lady]

31. Well, I worked there (briefly) in a secretarial role --

but that was in the 1960s. What I remember is having to order dress shirts from Brooks Brothers for one of the consultants. His initials had to be on the cuffs as well as on the shirt pocket.

I do recall that his first initial was "W" -- (present company excepted...)

[gkhouston]

36. I wonder why he needed to initial the cuffs as well as the shirt pocket...

maybe it's too hard to read your initials upside down off the shirt pocket after you've had a three-martini lunch and can't remember your name and reading the cuffs is easier?

[Radio_Lady]

40. It's one of the questions I don't trouble myself with -- anymore!

I think he was a "junior" and it is my belief that many of them have big identity problems.

[Burma Jones]

34. LOL

I work for the USMC, and I know what you mean........

[Maven]

3. In other "news," genetic mutations could spawn 50-foot-tall supermonkeys

that would overrun the globe and eat brains with abandon.

Aren't ridiculous, panic-inducing hypotheticals fun?

[Mojorabbit]

6. The problem is

they are making worldwide plans for this thing and the public has not been asked for their input.

[Bridget Burke]

4. While I don't think concern about a pandemic is BS....

These plans are going too far. Do we really want the Feds "taking over"? After how they handled NOLA--& the rest of the Gulf Coast.

And how the HELL would any pandemic affect the Internet?

[gkhouston]

19. if the people who run the net are

too sick (or too dead) to do the work, presumably. If lots of people are telecommuting or web-surfing for flu information, 'net traffic would probably be at record levels and there would need to be people available to fix things when servers overload and fall over.

[stillcool]

5. where's the correlation...

between flu and the internet? :wtf: Kind of reminds me of plastic sheeting and duct tape.

[Mojorabbit]

9. I don't know much about how the internet works

If most of the population stayed home and got online would it overwhelm the internet?

[Shilohtd16]

10. i doubt it

the servers that sustain the internet have enough capacity to handle practically everyone on the planet who has a computer downloading movies at the same time.

[Mojorabbit]

12. Then why do you think

they are planning for it to be down? Any ideas? Would loss of power be the problem?
On page three of the document they say
"Quite likely by day 28 all systems will have fallen apart"

[Maven]

14. Maybe because by contriving a phony crisis and making its phony

consequences seem more dire than anyone with a brain and access to wikipedia would believe, they make their "consulting" services seem more valuable.

[Shilohtd16]

18. probably malicious hackers having a heyday

but even that is unlikely

[Shilohtd16]

20. plus

they plan for everything, techies are better at that than bushies

[TahitiNut]

21. .

:rofl:

[Don Claybrook]

15. this would largely depend on the internet service provider

I don't believe the backbone, or main part of the internet would feel too much of a blip if everyone set up to telecommute via vpn did so simultaneously. However, if lots of people on your block or in your neighborhood are on at the same time, you may experience localized slowdown--it's all about how much contention there is to get to the vaunted "superhighway". And as far as ISP's go, it's probably a mixed bag between ISP's that provision lots of bandwidth and those who are at some level of oversubscription.

Anyway, I think the answer to your question is a wholly unsatisfying "it depends".

[bananas]

17. the technical term is "oversubscribe"

Refers to connecting more users to a system than can be fully supported if all of them were using it at the same time. Networks and servers are almost always designed with some amount of oversubscription, counting on the fact that everybody does not need the service simultaneously. If they do, delays are certainly the result, and outages may also occur.

An oversubscription of eight to one is not uncommon for Internet access, which means that only one out of eight users can be supported at sustained, maximum speed. However, with the Internet's TCP/IP packet switching architecture, all users could be online at the same time without noticing delays, because there is so much idle time while people read the Web pages they retrieve.

http://computing-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/oversubscribe

[TahitiNut]

23. Don't forget CSMA/CD's performance 'knee' at 70% capacity.

It's not pretty to see the backup cascade when traffic not only peaks but concentrates. Network thrashing gets ugly.

[bananas]

11. "Telecommunications will likely be overwhelmed early in the pandemic"

All telecom could be overwhelmed, including telephones - landlines and cell phones. Happens every time there's a disaster, first thing they do on the radio and tv is tell people not to overwhelm the phone system so that emergency calls can get through.

[partylessinOhio]

16. Why are the polits so damn frightened of the public having the internet?

Personally, I fear Bush and his nut jobs far more than any bird flu. We will always have illnesses and diseases of some sort. We are overcrowding the planet so what do we really expect?

I would rather see more birds and animals and less people.

[undergroundpanther]

27. Same reason they fear loitering

it's SOLIDARITY. WE get on the net and we relate to each other freely,share out lives and stories and thoughts and soon a pattern emerges things change perspectives widen,people learn and it creates for the wealthy a threat to their "stable" lives of insulated comfort when more people realize the inequality and class-ism is causing some of their despair,they begin to look for the source of their misery and stop blaming themselves for being poor or confused and begin to look at the wealthy predatory parasites that are making all the rules that make their lives so difficult and ask why am I less than they are? Who made a Ceo god?. The rich have rigged the game of success and sold us lies,and they do not want us to realize we are all day suckers and slaves who are being duped, And we see the lies by looking at others lives, by seeing how others suffer as we do we get sympathy and outraged and we build relationships and soon it builds into as movement to throw off oppression, the exploiters of humanity know this and that is why they FEAR true free speech, truly competitive open markets and people to gather together.It's all in the bill of rights /Constitution.The founding fathers knew about the evil ways of elitists and aristocrats.. Controllers and social engineers seek to generate Social isolation,media consolidation,erosion of privacy for the little guys, and making controlled environments(workplace,nuclear family,suburbs) . These are some of the many ways the powerful suppress free speech and manipulate the natural tendency to seek solidarity in people. Solidarity in relationships is what people seek. The rich have their clubs and gated communities and boardrooms to build their solidarity. Poor people do not have places to gather. Business has loitering laws,every public space that is owned has rules the owner puts there.It is exclusive. This undermines solidarity. The Net is not exclusive it helps solidarity. The rulers cannot allow this solidarity among the people who's labor,dreams and lives the rich owners exploit for the gain of their own few. The Net which was invented by the Pentagon, was supposed to be a "market". But got out of control of the profit seekers and it became a voice for the people. The rich predatory thugs in suits at the top do not want us to have democracy or real free speech,because eventually they know they would be accused of the crimes they do once people saw the truth clearly. Their jig would be up.. Ever speak out against a company you working for? Why Not? Ever loiter on a sidewalk and be told to move along even though you are committing no crime and blocking no entrances? This is NOT about crime it is about preventing solidarity in lower classes. Rich people loiter in their rich areas. The poor are harassed. Just observe.You will see it.

We are not free,and the net makes that very obvious. That's why they got to regulate it.Freedom and equality scares conservatives.

[partylessinOhio]

32. I am happy to have given you an opening to get that off your chest!

Of course the people have the power if they use it. Knowledge is power. Communicating with one another increases the power. We must not lose it by surrendering the internet to the polits. That would be insanity.

My gripe is that the internet should be free, the only charge should be for the telephone line to connect. We should not need the middle man, ISP, to link to the web.

[OneBlueSky]

38. it's all about power . . .

the internet gives "Power to the People" (to quote John Lennon) . . . and that's the LAST thing those who believe they actually HAVE all the power want . . .

they'd just as soon see "government of the people, by the people, and for the people perish from the Earth" (to quote Abraham Lincoln) . . .

[babylonsister]

22. Actually, I heard it already hit Florida:

[Maven]

28. LOL...well played n/t

[babylonsister]

30. ...

:evilgrin:

[jokerman93]

24. I think the Avian flu thing is mostly hype but...

I can hear it now...

Condi:"Nobody could have anticipated this outbreak would so completely overwhelm our communications and support infrastructure..."

Dickie: "Nobody could have anticipated this outbreak would so completely overwhelm our communications and support infrastructure. So we had to take robust measures..."

Rummie: "These are the unknown knowns somewhat north, south, east and west of the unanticipated measures we have been constantly preparing for. You don't overwhelm the communications and support infrastructure with the bird flu you want, you overwhelm it with the bird flu you have..."

Georgie: "See, what people don't unnerstand is no one likes pandemics. But 9/11 showed us one thing that people hate freedom. And that's my job see. My job is to get the bird flu...

Uh-huh.
:crazy:

[populistdriven]

25. The net is automated & fault tolerant, I work at a dual OC192 node

This is total fear mongering, individual servers could go down but thats about it

[Bridget Burke]

26. The Houston Chronicle featured a computer simulation of a pandemic....

Projections for the USA showed up on the first page today. But it doesn't seem nearly as dire, and strategies for handling the situation are less radical.

The landscape of a pandemic
Computer simulation of what a flu outbreak would look like reveals a virus that would start in big cities, end in four months

By LEIGH HOPPER
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle

Isolating sick people, rapidly treating family members with antiviral drugs, and closing schools and businesses will sharply reduce new infections in a future flu pandemic, according to a new mathematical model described in the British scientific journal Nature.

An influenza pandemic in the United States would crop up first in population centers like Houston and be largely over within four months, according to the researchers who created a complex computer simulation of a flu pandemic in the U.S. and Great Britain.

www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/nation/3823093.html

The study in the OP was compiled by the World Economic Forum & Booz Allen Hamilton, management consultants, after a meeting of many important CEO's & Senior Executives. The other one was published in Nature & compiled by scientists. What do they know?

[robertpaulsen]

33. Pandemic or not, their desire to take over the internet is no secret.

"the Pentagon says it will wage war against the internet"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=823153

Rumsfeld is trying to take over the internet
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=533800

And, for good measure....

It appears the newly formed U.S. Detention camps are for real.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=499461

[Mojorabbit]

35. What do you think

this means
"the government may need to assume national control, as in wartime, of critical infrastructure and resources including food, fuel, and healthcare"

Will they confiscate farmers crops? Businesses warehouses of food? Ration gas? And I don't even want to think of the gov in control of healthcare.

[OneBlueSky]

37. are Booz Allen Hamilton trustworthy? . . .

or are they part of the BushCo crime syndicate? . . . I know the name, but I can't recall where I know it from . . .

[Mojorabbit]

39. I don't know

I also am not familiar with the World Economic Forum.