Where the hell do they get these numbers?...

[Acebass]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060501/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

What, am I the only one whos income is going down? I don't believe I am so who are these people they are talking about...


Consumer Spending Up 0.6 Percent in March By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer
13 minutes ago

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060501/ap_on_...o_ec_fi/economy

WASHINGTON - Consumers spent more freely in March as their incomes grew at the fastest pace in six months, another sign the economy has snapped out of its end-of-year funk.

The Commerce Department reported Monday that consumer spending rose 0.6 percent, an improvement from the 0.2 percent increase registered in February. Consumer spending plays a key role in shaping overall economic activity.

Incomes, the fuel for future spending, advanced by 0.8 percent in March. That was up from a 0.3 percent increase in February and marked the largest gain since September.

[JDPriestly]

1. It's called inflation, but they aren't admitting it yet.

Some of us are getting squeezed. I'm earning less than half of what I earned in 2003.

[dogday]

27. I heard an economist the other day say the

exact thing... We are in an inflation right now... With the cost of fuel going up, it will then cause everything else to go up from airline tickets to Coca-cola.. Anything transported or moved will have to pay more, therefore the cost sinks down to the consumer....

[Acebass]

32. And with the dollar sliding...

It's the Reagan years all over again...
only worse...

[The Jacobin]

2. This isn't "excluding energy costs"

So this is all gasoline. If you have to spend it, you do.

[Norquist Nemesis]

3. I'm out there spending like a drunken sailor!

More on gas, more on groceries, more on monthly bills like utilities. Boy, oh boy! I'm spending more!

Just getting less in return. :cry:

[Acebass]

4. Thats what I thought...

btw Norquist should be convcited as a traitor...

[Avalux]

5. I took an Economics class once.

And it would stand to reason that if people's incomes haven't changed yet they are spending more for gasoline and heating they won't have enough to spend on other stuff; the trend would be a recession, which I think is where we're headed.

As far as these numbers and the rosy reporting, I think it's safe to say we can't trust ANYTHING put out by our government.

[seabeyond]

8. we can't trust ANYTHING put out by our government

and that is the bottom line. we have watched thru bush term him stating they are going to change this and that cause not reflective of today so these reports need to be interpreted differently.

cannot believe a single one of these reports. they have been adjusted to leave out the bad

[ProfessorGAC]

20. I've Taught Economics Classes, A Lot More Than Once

And, you get an A. The sudden change in price at the pump ends up causing a GDP growth lever for this simple reason:

The petro biz is a nearly $800 billion industry. When prices jump by 25% over a 6 week period, that means the inflow of cash to that industry goes up by almost $200 billion. People don't react to this fast enough, so they spend normally, spend extra for gas, and their savings rate falls. So, this extra $200 billion, or about 1.8% of GDP now looks like a 0.4% per quarter growth rate. Since that's about 0.13% per month, than 21% of this supposed growth is just from paying extra for gas!
The Professor

[teknomanzer]

35. So the bottom line is...

There is no real boost in consumer spending, it is just a reflection of the additional cost added to normal energy consumption. Would that be correct?

And those touting the good economic picture are ignoring (deliberately or otherwise) other factors that would indicate a sick economy or and economy headed for a downturn?

[Acebass]

37. There is a boost in spending...

we're just paying more for things we've been buying all along...
This does not bode well for us!...

[ProfessorGAC]

40. Sort Of. And Yes

I'm not suggesting that the gas prices are the ONLY reason the numbers are up, but it is a huge driver, given the huge scope of the oil industry.

There is always some level of GDP growth due to inflation (higher prices means more cash changes hands, but for the same degree of goods and services) and due to population growth, which is admittedly small. As a result, GDP grows nominally year by year. The trick is in deciding how to accurately measure real growth. That seems to be a fluid definition which economists often twist to their own convenience.

I don't think the economy is going south. I don't predict a downturn, but it definitely treading water, and has been for about 45 months now. It's a stagnant economy, but not a seriously bad one. (Unless of course, you're one of the several million who lost their jobs in this sparkling "recovery".)

I wouldn't say the economy is sick, it's just not feeling vital and robust!
The Professor

[Acebass]

41. Due to higher fuel costs my Untilities went up...

around 60%...so it's double jeopardy...you pay em at home and on the road...

[teknomanzer]

46. Okay, so you're not overly pessimistic on the economy...

but isn't reasonable to assume that prices for oil, coal and gas will only continue to soar as global demand increases beyond any possible increase in production (referring to peak oil production) and that this increase in cost will affect the price for manufacturing and delivering goods while at the same time reducing any chance for general wage increases for workers?

Take into consideration hostility toward Iran and Venezuela, and very little production coming out of Iraq; a total lack of will in the government to push us toward any kind of change in regards to alternative energy research and revamping our neglected transportation infrastructure (i.e. rail and public transporation) Does this not all add up to a bleak economic future? Or am I missing something here?

[seabeyond]

6. increased spending. higher fuel, groceries, utilities......

of course spending is up. now prove to me wage is up also. i dont believe that one.

[RaleighNCDUer]

7. "...snapped out of its end-of-year funk."

I always thought that the end of the year was a boom time -- holiday shopping season, and all. If it was "in a funk" this year, that means it was down at a time that stores do 50% of their annual business. That means people weren't shopping, stores weren't hiring, people not getting paid, and therefore they weren't shopping.

I wonder what the excised from their calculations to keep from repeating the down cycle. How many does it take to make a recession?

[Atman]

9. Here is as good an explanation as any...

Shadow Statistics
by Jim Sinclair

You're bombarded with all those statistics that pour out of Washington, the ones that appear to show how unemployment and inflation are low, GDP is expanding, and so on. They may not square with your personal experience, but after all, the government pays a lot of people with fancy degrees a lot of money to carefully track economic statistics. So you figure the numbers must be somewhat accurate.

But now a man has come out of the woodwork who's done the real math and properly crunched all the numbers. His conclusion: "If the numbers don't seem real to the man in the street--they probably aren't."

<snip>

Has he ever. What Williams does (and few others bother to do) is read the fine print. The government, he notes in a recent interview with Kathryn Welling of the welling@weeden investment newsletter, "is very honest in terms of disclosing what it does. It always footnotes the changes and provides all the fine details." It is in those details--no surprise--that the devil lies.

"What has happened over time," Williams says, "is that the methodologies employed to create the widely followed series, such as ... the GDP, the CPI, the employment numbers, all have had biases built into them that result in overstating economic growth and understating inflation."

"Real unemployment right now--figured the way that the average person thinks of unemployment, meaning figured the way it was estimated back during the Great Depression--is running about 12%. Real CPI right now is running at about 8%. And the real GDP is probably in contraction. I venture that if you talked about those numbers now with the average person, they would say that they seem reasonable ... my work shows that the economic perceptions of non-professionals actually have some real validity; there are in fact reasons for the disconnect between official statistics and what the populace is feeling."

http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/

http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1&RQ=EDL,1&AR_T=1&GID=&linkid=3474&T_ARID=3542

.

[TreasonousBastard]

14. It is a pretty good one, and...

the Census, BLS, and other agencies do actually do a yeoman job of gathering these statistics with minimal error, and their statistical analyses are as good as anything out there.

Problem is, hardly anyone reads anything more than the abstacts they periodically put out-- that's what the press sees if it see that much. The really hard data is only seen by those interested in it, and most of them have a reason to spin it-- and that spin is what the press sees next.

[ProfessorGAC]

23. From The Bolded Part. Correct. Incorrect. Correct

Unemployment is well above 10%. The total inflation number isn't as high as stated here. I have it more like 5.2% based upon the impact to the median household income earners. And, the GDP is in contraction when indexed to the inflation rate and the population growth.

I like this guy!
The Professor

[acmejack]

10. I am spending money now while it still buys something

It is losing value as we speak. Gold was at $660 an ounce a bit ago, 112 yen to a dollar, the air is going out of the good old USD in a real hurry folks. I may just be a "delusional" old fool (and you had better hope real hard that is exactly what I am) but I am scared shitless. I think we are in deep doodoo here.

[DBoon]

12. welcome to Weimar!

nt

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

18. Squeak, squeak, squeak.

"I'm going to get milk, honey. Need anything?"

[Sydnie]

33. I fear that we are too

I have been saying that for a while now ... telling my friends that have any money to invest to put it in clean water ... and fast. That will be the next gold or oil in as far as it will dominate the markets. Clean water will buy you a future when nothing else has value anymore.

[RaleighNCDUer]

42. The other day I saw a mannequin on CNN saying, in her perky

best way with a gleaming smile, "...and gold is up to $660..." (or thereabouts) and I screamed at the TV - What are you smiling about! This is NOT good news!

But to the general listener, it came across as a sign of the strong economy, with which she was conflating that statement.

[Acebass]

44. like a mushroom...keep us in the dark and feed us crap!...n/t

[DBoon]

11. a small number of people are spending extravagantly

raising the overall average

[Acebass]

16. They have to be...

because the only reason I'm spending more is because things like untilities and gas have gone through the roof...

[Sydnie]

13. Are they considering tax refunds as bumping the income numbers?

They are talking about months when tax refunds usually appear in the consumers bank accounts. There appears to be a bump in speading most years during that time, doesn't it? :shrug:

[Acebass]

17. You got a refund?! ...

I made just over $36,000 last year and had to pay over $700. in taxes...

[Sydnie]

29. Earned Income Credit saved me

I don't earn quite what you do, head of household and having kids bailed me out ... again this year. It's true what they say ... divorce is hardest on the female and the kids ...

Sorry you had to pay though. But for many in my situation, that refund doesn't last too long in the bank as it is needed to try to climb back up to somewhere near even again. I suspect that there are many like me and that could be the difference between the spending numbers in some cases.

[elehhhhna]

26. It's spending numbers, not income numbers, and Yes, you got it.

Happens every Spring.

[Sydnie]

31. Yes, I misspoke

I should have said spending numbers ... need more caffeine I think. :)

[Chimichurri]

15. I think the disparity between the haves and the have nots

is making these numbers seem odd.

The people who have money are making more money thanks to the tax cuts thus spending more making up for the reduction of spending by the middle/lower class.

[gatorboy]

19. Spending will stay steady as long as people have credit cards to charge.

The economy is great sure. Because people are spending money they don't have. Take away America's credit cards and you'd be in for a bleak future as far as America's purchasing future goes.

[DUHandle]

21. If you rearrange the the letters in your handle Acebass

you will find the source of there numbers.




no offense intended

[Acebass]

24. LOL...no offense taken...your right!...n/t

[ComerPerro]

22. Bushbot Economists love percentages

One thing Bushbot economists love to use is percentages. That's because the smaller something is, the larger the percentage any increase will be.


I have $.50 in my pocket. I just found a nickel on the ground. My personal wealth has increased 10% in five seconds! I must be doing everything right.

I have $50.00 in my pocket, and find a nickel on the ground. Would I even stop to pick it up?

[elehhhhna]

25. People spent their tax refunds. Happens every spring.

[ProgressivePatriot]

28. Don't believe any government statistic....

They are manipulated.

For example, after Katrina and the loss of all those jobs...unemployment dropped about .2%.

They claim unemployment is 4.8% but, statisticians who do honest calculations put it at about 14%.

I'll try to find the link to these.

[Acebass]

30. They only count the people drawing unemeployment...

Bush dropped the extentions a long time ago...
people are out of work their just not getting unemployment compensation...

[izzie]

34. Guess it is time to take out the guy getting over 400 million

and all his side kicks who get almost as much.

[Acebass]

36. I vote yes!...

[Acebass]

38. I guess the question is...who are these investors?...

edited personal info...


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AP
Stocks Climb on Wal-Mart, Spending Data
Monday May 1, 10:31 am ET
By Christopher Wang, AP Business Writer
Dow, Nasdaq Advance on Report Showing Better-Than-Forecast Gains in Personal Income, Spending


NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks advanced Monday as new data showing better-than-forecast gains in industrial activity and personal income and spending overshadowed a sliding U.S. dollar and higher oil prices.

An upbeat sales report from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. also helped the market to its gains, as did billion-dollar acquisitions by Boeing Co. and Level 3 Communications Inc.

Strong income and spending data eased Wall Street's worries about the economy's health. The Commerce Department reported an 0.8 percent jump in income and a 0.6 percent rise in spending for March; economists expected both figures to add just 0.4 percent.

Investors were further reassured about economic growth after the Institute for Supply Management said its April manufacturing index grew 2.1 points to 57.3, topping estimates for a 0.2 decline.

http://us.f526.mail.yahoo.com/ym/ShowLetter?box=Inbox&MsgId=6174_21641925_975040_1506_89743_0_148598_118274_1137197976&bodyPart=2&tnef=&YY=75131&order=down&sort=date&pos=0&VScan=1&Idx=1

[Acebass]

39. or is this like everything else...

It doesn't pertain to us so shut up...

[Ksec]

43. The "spending part" is done with credit cards

that have exorbitant interest rates so if you buy a baseball glove that cost 40 bucks and end up paying a bank ten bucks for using that credit card to buy that glove, I guess its all good for those lending institutions who profit from your spending. Therefore the way to get people spending more is to make it appear rosy then everyone wants a piece of that rosy pie.

Just my rant on this economy . Its all bullshit.

[Acebass]

45. and it gives people false hope...

Personally I see no way out of my situation barring a depression. I'm afraid thats what it will take to level the playing field.