Handicapping the GOP in 2008

[Perky]

OK OK Iowa is still three years away. But I am looking at the aspirants on the GOP side, Is actually is a pretty pleasing sight.

McCain. Yeah ok he is the Un-Bush...but he will be 72; he has this Maverick tag and that means the right will view him with suspicion and he will be in all the other's gun-sights. He'd likely win in a walk in the General against HRC but I don't think he gets the nomination.

Allen: If there is an Heir apparent it's Allen. But he comes across as too Bush like and not terribly bright, and more mean spirited. I am not sure that the GOP would want to put up a candidate who promises more of the same.


Romney: A Mormon from Massachusetts? Getting the GOP nod? YOu don't get the nod without the Religious Right. What is he thinking? Maybe the Un-Allen?

Pataki: An unpopular, moderate, uncharismatic Governor from New York? Assuming Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are first. I just don't see him breaking out.

Frist. He is smart...articulate. ethically challenged and s flip-flopper. No enthusiasm for him at all in the rank and file.

Brownback. One Trick Pony. and when SCOTUS re-affirms Roe with Alito and Roberts on the court (and they will)...He will be largely ignored by Moderate Republicans and dispirited Fundies.

Hagel: If McCain jumps in... It seems difficult to see his natural constituency. If McCain does not play. This guy should win Iowa. But Romney might pull out New Hampshire and Allen will win South Carolina. All bets are off at the point..but again Allen pulls the Neo-Cons and the religious right. Romney pulls the Rockefeller Republicans and People not willing to have four more years of "BushCo". Hagel just won't be able to find momentum.

Guliani. I am not convinced Rudy is running....yet. But assuming he gets in. He is bright articulate and conveys..a take charge, law and order persona. Not bad. But he is so prone to making bad personal decisions and is waaay too liberal for the Religious Right. If it comes down to Allen vs. Guliani. Allen would probably get the nomination in a blood bath and pick up Rudy for the VP slot. That to me is the scary ticket.

Gingrich: He is itching to Run. My sense is that he too wants to run as the un-Bush. Bright maverick, outlandish, populist reformer. Running as an outsider and claiming the the GOP has abandoned it soul. would play well in many quarters. He is from the South.....But I just don't see him catching fire anywhere.

Jeb is not running. Condee is not running.

So to me it looks like Allen will get the nod.....but I don't think it will be enthusiastic.

Allen-Romney vs Warner-Richardson???