Prediction: Alito to be confirmed 61-38

[alcibiades_mystery]

Get your prediction on record here.

[SteppingRazor]

1. 54-40....

six either abstain or not present

[Nomen Tuum]

41. 75-20

He's in. Roe's out.

[stepnw1f]

44. You'll Be Very Sorry If That Ever Happens

have a nice day.

[Toots]

50. No way they would end Roe

That is the Republican's biggest issue. If they ended that whaty would they rile their base up with. gay marriage only goes so far.. No they can not afford to lose such a powerful issue..

[quinnox]

2. I think Alito will be confirmed

No filibuster, he will be confirmed but no prediction for the number.

[Walt Starr]

I'm saying 76 - 23

and that I'll be a Green by the end of the month.

[Matariki]

11. hear hear

me too. can we still be active on DU? or do we need to start a GU?

[Walt Starr]

15. If I feel I must switch to the Green Party

I could no longer post on DU with a clear conscience.

[Nordmadr]

21. I'm Green and active on DU. N/T

[Walt Starr]

27. Don't support Green candidates in opposition to Dems openly, then.

It'll get ya banned.

[Nordmadr]

32. I've yet to support a Green for a National position.

I was independent, then Democrat, now Green. Have considered switching back, but...

Olafr

[Matariki]

37. i tend to vote Green in local elections

and i confess voting for what's his face in 2000. Because my state was definitely going to Gore, who I wanted and expected to win. I thought my vote for (what was that guy's name again?) would help move the green party to a more visible level - get them on ballots, etc. we need *more* than a 3 party system though, or it will never work.

ps. joking about Nader.

[Walt Starr]

40. I've never voted for anybody but a Democrat in every election since

1981.

I'VE HAD ALL I CAN STANDS, I CAN'T STANDS NO MORE!

[RedStateHell]

3. Hope

there is hope. Why are you so pessimistic?

He is clearly lying here. I still have hope.

[Walt Starr]

8. DiFi has gone on the record that there is nothing to filibuster over

It's a done deal.

[hang a left]

22. That wasn't my take on what was said.

[Kira]

4. Is there no hope left at all

that someone like Durbin or Fiengold will get a filibuster together?

[SteppingRazor]

43. None from me...

Go person by person, senator by senator, and this vote speaks for itself. We don't have the votes for a filibuster. Of course, that doesn't mean we just sob, whimper and give up. Going down without a fight is a sign of weakness. Claw and scrape to the bitter end.

[w13rd0]

5. He'll be confirmed...

...90-1 with 9 abstaining.

I'm always WAY off with my predictions. Here's to hoping my streak remains solid!

[adarling]

6. i think with all this crap that happened today

he will not be confirmed and will walk away like harriet miers. Might be waaaaayyyy off on my own branch but i sense that there is something there that might send Sammy packing

[hang a left]

7. Full blown war on the floor of the Senate...

Filibuster and wall to wall coverage from all networks for days.

[bluethruandthru]

20. from your lips to the dems ears!

Now is the time to call or e-mail any and all senators...
Filibuster!

[shance]

9. He won't be confirmed.

n/t

[CottonBear]

10. As Malloy said last night, " this is the time to filibuster"

Line in the sand time. It's now or never. It's war.

[Skink]

14. Cheney will break the tie in true Dr. Evil fashion.

[yourout]

12. If there is a vote it will be down party lines.

[Charlie Brown]

17. Not at all

Several Democrats have already signalled they will support Alito.

Ben Nelson, Bill Nelson, Tim Johnson, and Byron Dorgan, just to name four.

[peacetalksforall]

13. Just so you prediction makers don't base it on corporate media.

Please don't base it on what talk-propaganda idiots say.

[Charlie Brown]

16. Roberts was confirmed 78-22

I would never have thought in my wildest dreams that he would get that kind of groundswell support.

I think Alito will be confirmed by around 67-33.

[WI_DEM]

18. I predict the vote will be 66-34 to confirm

No Republicans will vote against him and ten Democrats will support him.

The ten who will vote yes: Nelson (FL), Feinstein (CA), Lieberman (CT), Lincoln (ARK), Nelson (NE), Johnson (SD), Landrieu (LA), Byrd (WVA), Lautenberg (NJ), Pryor (ARK).

I hope I'm wrong.

[Nutmegger]

19. Oh jeez, I don't know

52-48

I think we'll get two Rethugs voting against with rest sticking together. Some of the others are too loyal to break party lines.

[in_cog_ni_to]

23. Nope. He'll be filibustered, Frist will throw out the Nuclear Option

and the Dems will start Senate procedures by reading the bills they are SUPPOSE to read in the first place. They should be finished reading them by November, 2008.

FILIBUSTER.

[Kira]

25. What are the procedures they

will follow to enact a filibuster? How many Senators do we need to start it?

[in_cog_ni_to]

45. 41 Senators needed to filibuster

US Senate : Filibuster
From Kathy Gill,
Your Guide to U.S. Politics: Current Events.
Senate Procedures

US Senate Republican leadership has publicly decried Democrat efforts to block Presidential nominations that require Senate approval. Senate leadership threatens to invoke a "nuclear option" which would ban the minority from blocking judicial nominees.

Some news reports have characterized the filibuster, a historical method used to delay vote or block debate, as unconstitutional, unfair, a historical relic. Others report that it is a tool that protects the rights of the minority against the tyrrany of the majority.

By their nature, filibusters elevate visiblity and have, as a by-product, the potential to inspire compromise. A final vote can only be taken if 60 Senators agree; this is called a vote of cloture (vote to end the filibuster).

According to the non-partisan Congressional Research Service (CRS), cloture votes to end a filibuster were held on 14 appeals court nominations from 1980 to 2000.

However, the filibuster is only one way that Senators can block a vote. For example, Judiciary Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (UT) bottled Clinton judicial nominees "in committee" -- effectively denying them a vote on the Senate floor. The Judiciary Committee uses "blue slips" to obtain home state Senator opinion on the nominee; Hatch required two yes votes for Clinton nominees, but only one for Bush. (cite1, cite2)

Democratic senators filibustered 10 of President Bush's 229 first-term judicial nominees; this confirmation rate exceeded other first-term presidents since 1980. (cite)

The Senate is the upper house of the Congress of the United States. It is comprised of two senators (100 members) from each state. Senators serve six-year terms, with one-third being elected each election cycle.

The Senate has sole authority to ratify treaties proposed by the president and the sole power to accept or reject presidential nominees for federal courts (judges, including the Supreme Court) and cabinet members. Sponsored Links
Supreme Court Justices
Take Our Supreme Court Poll And You Can Get A Free Laptop Computer
www.my-vote-counts.com


Latest Developments
The Senate has a process in place for amending rules; this process requires a two-thirds <67> vote. According to Congressional Quarterly, from 1919-1971, there were nine filibusters relating to Rule 22; in each case, there were insufficient votes to invoke cloture.

The "nuclear option" which Republican leaders are threatening is actually a series of steps designed to bypass the two-thirds vote requirement to change rules: (cite)
The Senate moves to vote on a controversial nominee.
At least 41 Senators call for filibuster.
Majority Leader Frist raises a point of order, saying debate has gone on long enough and that a vote must be taken within a certain time frame. (Current Senate rules requires a cloture vote at this point.)
Vice President Cheney -- acting as presiding officer -- sustains the point of order.
A Democratic Senator appeals the decision.
A Republican Senator moves to table the motion on the floor (the appeal).
This vote - to table the appeal - is procedural and cannot be subjected to a filibuster; it requires only a majority vote (in case of a tie, the Vice President casts the tie-breaking vote).
With debate ended, the Senate would vote on the nominee; this vote requires only a majority of those voting. The filibuster has effectively been closed with a majority vote instead of a three-fifths vote.
Background
According to the US Senate website , the word filibuster -- derived from a Dutch word meaning "pirate" -- was first used more than 150 years ago to describe "efforts to hold the Senate floor in order to prevent action on a bill."

Rule 22
The filibuster is related to "cloture," a rule adopted almost 100 years ago two-thirds vote. At times this was two-thirds of those voting; for a limited time, it was two-thirds of membership.

In 1975, the Senate reduced the number of votes needed to invoke cloture to three-fifths (60) of Senate membership. At the same time, they made the filibuster "invisible" by requiring only that 41 Senators state that they intend to filibuster; critics say this makes the modern filibuster "painless."

[Dinger]

24. No: 52-47

[oneoftheboys]

26. 60 - 40 - All Gopers and (5) Dems

[ProfessorGAC]

28. 57-43

There will be a few dems and a couple of repubs that will cross lines.
The Professor

[cally]

29. Dems will fillibuster

and Repubs will use the nuclear option. Party line vote supporting nuclear option. Allito is confirmed but backlash against Repubs similar to what happened after Teri Schiavo.

[SteppingRazor]

42. That sounds interesting, except...

I don't think we have the votes for a filibuster

[cally]

48. If the party holds together, we do

I think Reid may insist on party unity if he can insure enough cover. That's the sole purpose of the hearings. To uncover enough talking points to insist Dems hold together.

[kath]

52. when was the last time (if ever) the party held together? - there seems to

always be some defectors.
:-(

[Initech]

30. Oh no, I'm betting it will be a lot closer, like 60 - 55

The only dems who vote for Alito will be the closet repukes (Zell Miller, Joe Lieberman, and so on)).

[0rganism]

33. But where will we get the extra 15 senators?

60 + 55 = 115

[Initech]

35. Doh!

I had forgot that we dont have a majority anymore!

[0rganism]

36. Even a majority couldn't create 15 extra senators

You'd need 7.5 additional states to do that ;)

[0rganism]

31. Maine Dems need to be on top of this

Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins need to be held accountable for their votes on this one.

Big Time.

[Ksec]

34. I believe itll be close.

My worry is with the Lieberman Dems.

[Dr Fate]

38. Any DEM who votes for this facist-racist must be facist-racist too.n/t

n/t

[AntiCoup2K4]

39. Any "Democrats" who vote to confirm this piece of shit....

...should be shot at sunrise like the traitors that they are.

[Ksec]

49. Ditto

This guy is truly a corporate whore and a traitor to the American system of law. He simply pretends that laws or the congressional opinions were meant to say something totally different than what they do. Hes slimy.

[Innocent Smith]

46. 58-40

Mostly party line vote...

[bluestateguy]

47. I'll say 58-42, but Democrats wimp out on a fillibuster

Jeffords votes yes, Ben Nelson votes yes, Landrieu votes yes.

Lieberman, Feistein will vote no, but they will be very tepid in their opposition. For Lieberman, this is a small chance for him to make the Democratic base happy in Connecticut, where he faces a primary challenge.

[slackmaster]

51. 78 - 22, same as Roberts

:hi: