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Master Mahon Donating Member (621 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-03-06 05:30 PM
Original message
Debunking One of the Worst Ideas in Economics
Did we really believe Tax cuts would pay for themselves anyway?

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/economist/4065?p=1

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Can't Lose Weight by Eating More

Neither the Reagan nor the George W. Bush tax cuts were "self-financing," as the Laffer disciples like to argue. According to The Economist -- my former employer and no bastion of left-wing thought -- the current Bush Administration's top economist, Gregory Mankiw, estimated that decreasing taxes on labor would generate enough growth to recoup only about 17 cents for each lost dollar; a tax cut on capital is better, paying for more than half of itself. Still, the bottom line from the Bush Administration itself is that tax cuts reduce Uncle Sam's take.

So why does Laffer's sketch on Dick Cheney's cocktail napkin rank near the top of my list of bad economic ideas? Because, when applied to the U.S., it's intellectually dishonest. The Laffer Curve offers the false promise that we can cut taxes without making any sacrifice on the spending side, and that's simply not true. It's the economic equivalent of arguing that you can lose weight by eating more.

Let me be perfectly clear: I'm not arguing that tax cuts are bad. I'm simply pointing out that we can't pretend that tax cuts won't require reductions on the spending side to balance the budget. In fact, you can disregard every other argument in this column and think about one thing: If Laffer were right, lower taxes would never require any spending sacrifice. We could pay a mere one percent of our income in taxes and still fund all of our government spending -- and maybe more! Do you think that's really possible?

This column should give you a hint of why economics is called the dismal science -- it's all about tradeoffs. We're the ones telling you that if you get more of something, you probably have to get less of something else.

Whether it's tax policy or dieting, you can't have your cake and lose weight, too, which is why America currently has huge deficits and a lot of fat people.
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ComerPerro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-03-06 05:33 PM
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1. Worse yet, they're pushing for more cuts
Insisting, again, that tax cuts are working.

Sure... They work so well that they send the economy into recession for years, and then don't even start giving even slight gains again until five years later...
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dcfirefighter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-03-06 05:45 PM
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2. It was the Laffer CURVE not the Laffer LINE
Meaning that the slope is different at different points on the line. Even Laffer conceded that we don't know where on the curve we are. At some (high) level of taxation, reducing taxes will increase revenue. At some (low) level of taxation, reducing taxes will DEcrease revenue. Apparently we know now that we are already on the left (low tax) side of the curve.
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bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-03-06 06:02 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Martin Gardner at Scientific American drew the graph
graph found on http://ase.tufts.edu/cogstud/papers/tempanom.htm

Laffer's over-simplified graph:


Martin Gardner's more realistic verion:

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dcfirefighter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-04-06 09:55 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Hilarious! nt
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TahitiNut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-04-06 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. It's interesting that Laffer marked a 50% tax rate as optimal.
:evilgrin:
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jmowreader Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-04-06 11:14 AM
Response to Original message
6. The Laffer curve both works and doesn't work
All it says is that there is a tax rate that optimizes tax revenues. Laffer used the variable T* (optimum tax rate) to describe this sweet spot.



This is what it looks like...although Laffer himself says he never drew it on a napkin because the restaurant they were in when he drew the curve used cloth napkins, and he was brought up to not ruin nice things.

Look close at how this curve is formed. It's not linear. There are definite shoulders--steep regions on the extreme left and right sides--and plateaus--shallow regions close to the sweet spot. Draw a horizontal line where the curve drops from plateaus to shoulders. We'll call this the Jim Line.

You can see it better here...



Go to the point marked C. Note that the curve is starting to get really steep to the left of that point? There's your breakpoint, or Jim Line.

The Jim Line theory, which I just invented, says that you can use any tax rate between the low-side Laffer-Jim crossing point (the rate below the sweet spot at which Laffer's line crosses mine) and the high-side Laffer-Jim crossing point (same deal, just above the sweet spot) and still be okay. If you're between the sweet spot and the low-side crossing point your tax cuts will be self-financing or, more accurately, financeable through modest and acceptable spending cuts--what are popularly called "fat cuts." If you're between the sweet spot and the high-side crossing point, there may be a bit of grumbling but productivity will still be high, tax revenues will be good and you can start to pay down the debts you've accumulated.

Cross the Jim Line at your own peril.

If you go below the Jim Line (BJL) on the low side, you have created a non-self-financing tax cut situation. There are three ways to deal with this crisis--slash spending on important programs, sell a lot of government bonds, or keep raising the debt ceiling. None are sustainable.

Go below it on the high side, and the underground, non-taxed economy will flourish. Laffer's failure to acknowledge this part of the economy is the Laffer Curve's biggest failing. People will not stop working. They can't. People have to eat. They have to wear clothes, live in buildings, use transportation, be entertained...they can't stop doing all of those things just because the tax rate is too high. They CAN, on the other hand, cut their tax-paid work to a minimum (you can't completely stop working because the IRS knows Americans need money to live, and if you're not reporting any income you're getting paid exclusively under the table) and supplement this labor with jobs that don't report your income to the government. You know, stuff like auto repair and childcare. Now you're into a non-self-financing tax increase situation. This is worse because untaxed income is addictive. We're all familiar with stories about economic criminals who said they were going to make two or three million at whatever it is they were doing then go legit...and six years later they're sitting in jail after having earned twenty or thirty million. There aren't very many of these people, thank (insert deity here) for that...now change that to oh...eighty percent of the country. No one who starts making untaxed income if the tax rate is 75 percent is going to suddenly start reporting and paying if the rate drops to 37.5 percent. If the tax rate goes too high four-fifths of the nation will drop off the tax grid and you will never get these people back. This is when you'll see a national sales tax come in--if Johnny decides to start casting skateboard wheels in his garage and selling them over the Internet, you tax his raw materials because, in all likelihood, Johnny can't make his own urethane precursors.

Reagan, and GWB, both preferred BJL tax rates. Clinton's wisdom was in using above-Jim Line (AJL) rates--ones slightly high-side so as to pay down the deficit.

In reality, there's no way to plot on one graph the "optimal" tax rate range because tax rates are tiered.
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Psephos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-04-06 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Excellent post
Ideology-free, too - thank you.

Peace
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