Could Al Gore have beaten Bush Sr in 1988 if he was the nominee? - discuss

[Ignacio Upton]

Many on DU probably do not remember this, but Gore actually ran in 1988 for the nomination:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1988

I remember reading about his 1988 campaign in the past, and his campaign was somewhat conservative compared to his later campaigns for Vice President and President in '00. Some allege that he was responsible for the Willie Horton controversy, as Republicans allege that he first attacked Dukakis with it long before Lee Atwater. I would like to see proof of this before saying whether or not it was true.

Dukakis and his disastorous campaign aside, let's play alternate history: what if Gore had gotten nominated in 1988? Would he have been formidible enough to beat Bush Sr? I'm not necessarily sure if he would have had as much trouble as he did in 2000. The VRWC wasn't as strong as it is now, Atwater aside, and I don't think that Gore was as "consultant-controlled," at least not in appearance. He was also a sitting Senator from Tennessee, and would like have had a better shot at carrying his home state and several other southern states, because at the time the south hadn't fully realigned with the GOP. He also could have carried states that Dukakis lost narrowly, like California and Montana, and possibly put Texas into play (Texas was still more Democratic back then.)

[saltpoint]

1. Gore was pretty stiff back in those days. And more conservative.

You hit on several key points.

I think it would have been closer, but not a slam dunk. I have a lot of respect for Michael Dukakis but events conspired against him that year, and he did not give all his heart to the race. His wife, Kitty, was under considerable emotional strain, and it likely subtracted from his ability to be fully committed to his campaign.

Al Gore now is a vastly improved version of Al Gore. I'm hunching that Gore in '88 would have made it much closer, but I'm not sure if it would have been enough to win. Maybe.

[Ignacio Upton]

2. Gore in 1988 would have been more electable

Smply because he was a southerner (flame me if you will.) Also, and I will get hit with this, but Tipper's support of labeling records could have help innoculate Gore from the kind of "out of the mainstream" bullshit that Lee Atwater pulled.

[SPKrazy]

5. It Obviously Didn't Go Over With Voters

Because he flamed out fast in the Demo Primaries

[Ignacio Upton]

7. Those same voters gave us McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis

Gore would have been a good President in 1988, just as good as in 2000....or 2008. However, I wonder how he would have handled the Reagan recession that hurt Bush Sr?

[SPKrazy]

10. I'll Tell You This, Clinton Held Off Running Until 1992

for this very reason

Ray Scott, one of Clinton's people in state government back then came and talked to my grad school class in 1988. Said Clinton figured that no matter what GWHB said, he would HAVE to raise taxes and that would make him vulnerable in 1992.


Was he right or what?

[SPKrazy]

11. I'm One Of those Voters

At least For Mondale and Dukakis

Neither of which I was fond of

But Al was too conservative for me back then.

Either he's changed, or I've changed. Probably both.

Remember Al Gore as Veep reduced the size of Federal Govt, something that is really pretty conservative to do.

I like Al Gore, and voted for him in 2000

I'd vote for him again if he got the nomination.

I don't know if I'd vote for him in the primary

[Ignacio Upton]

13. No offense to your votes from 18 and 22 years ago

:)

Yeah, from what little I've heard about his 1988 campaign, he seemed conservative compared to 1992 even. However, I'm still wondering how electable he might have been were he the candidate.

[SPKrazy]

14. Doubt He'd Have Done Well

but who knows

he didn't have the Dem base's support, now whether he'd have gotten it in the General election or not?

The country was still "conservative" as it was on the tail of Reagan.

The era of greed. (Remember the movie Wall Street, not so far off)

[Zen Democrat]

3. Gore was only 40 years old then. A very young presidential candidate.

[SPKrazy]

4. No!

Gore was an ass then in my opinion.

And his wife had just come off the rampage against the recording industry.

Not a popular couple.

And Gore was very conservative.

I couldn't stand him and was very glad to see him out.

Not so happy to see Dukakis in the top spot

I'd have gone for Jesse Jackson, but the truth is that the field was pretty bad, and Bush Sr. was riding the Reagan coat tails which were long enough (despite Iran Contra which hadn't really caught on yet, and never did to tell the truth for the majority of people)

Gore changed his views, and aged well over the Clinton years.

Hopefully he's loosened up even more.

[SPKrazy]

6. If Many Don't Remember This, I Feel Old

but you are probably right, and I do feel pretty old

[goodhue]

8. No, Al was running from the right at that time

Kind of the Joementum of 1988. Don't get me wrong, I love Al Gore and think he should run in 2008. But the 1988 Gore was the beta version. He improved a lot over the next four years, as he focused on the earth in balance.

[Lefty-Taylor]

9. In 1988, Gore was much more conservative than Dukakis -- in fact,

he was known as a hawkish, right-wing Dem. I was glad at the time that he didn't get the Democratic nomination. Let's remember that Gore only became more progressive since he lost in 2000. He was no friend of liberalism up to and during the 2000 election. Proof? He supported the horrible telecommunications act of 1996 and the so-called "welfare reform act" that hurt the truly needy. And he condoned Clinton's 2003 bombing of Irag that killed several civilians, including that nation's most famous artist, all because there was a vague rumor of a plot to kill Bush Sr.

But I like him more now -- since his speeches against the illegal and immoral Iraq war.

Just some perspective. And to answer your question: No, he would have lost to Bush the Elder in 88.

[Ignacio Upton]

12. He was a progressive during the Clinton Administration

I admit that not everything he supported was right, particularly NAFTA and the Telecommunications Act. However, he fought for the enviroment, and cast the tie-breaking vote for the 1993 Budget that began the process of ending the Reagan-Bush deficit.

[newyawker99]

15. Hi Lefty-Taylor!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast: