AP: How Much Oil Is There? When Will We Run Out?

[Kadie]

May 9, 2006 1:16 pm US/Pacific

How Much Oil Is There? When Will We Run Out?

(AP) Q. How much oil is there, and when are we likely to run out?

A. Most industry and government analysts believe petroleum will be a growing energy source for decades to come. And depending on a variety of financial, environmental, technological and geopolitical factors, oil could be with us -- albeit in shrinking volumes -- for another hundred years.

Earth's recoverable oil resource is estimated by many experts to be at least 3 trillion barrels and potentially more than 4 trillion barrels. If global consumption rises about 2 percent a year from current levels of about 85 million barrels a day, the amount in the low end of that range is enough to last until roughly 2070.

"If money were no object, you could get every bit out" and extend the petroleum age well into the 22nd century, said Energy Department analyst David Morehouse.

Of course, Morehouse's point was theoretical, not realistic.

U.S. government research that is widely respected among analysts concludes that a peak in output -- or the point at which half of the world's reserves are depleted -- is likely to arrive around the middle of this century, give or take a decade or so.

more...
http://cbs13.com/topstories/local_story_129161906.html

[eallen]

1. We'll never run out of oil.

But there doesn't seem to be as much cheap oil as there once was.

:hippie:

[middle]

2. God bathed the earth in sun energy for billions of years and had a plan

He has littered this planet with coal, oil, frozen methane hydrate, natural gas, etc.

Enough energy to run his creation until his plan terms out.

Of course; somebody out there will disagree with me. They will say we ran out of oil in ..............1976 according to some. Oopps!

[MadHound]

3. Well, God aside,

There is every indication out there that we're running out of cheap and easily recovervable oil. Bringing that hard to get sour crude to your gas tank is going to cost an ever increasing amount, meanwhile polluting our planet all that much more. Time to switch to sustainable, clean, renewable fuels like biodiesel.

And nowhere in the Bible did I ever read that God said to drill, drill, drill. He said that we were to be caretakers of this planet, and somehow I doubt that means making it a toxic, dirty petro-mess.:shrug:

[Bushwick Bill]

5. Right.

And all of the methane hydrates, tar sands, shale, deepwater, etc. are of no help if they are a nearly impossible or prohibitively expensive to extract.

[tjwash]

6. It's also not as easy as "running out of oil" as well.

When an oil well is half empty, you’ll have to go through an increasing amount of trouble to pump the second half up. It's like eating jello out of a little plastic cup. As you get toward the bottom, you have to do a bit of maneuvering to get it all out. Now convert the jello cup into an immovable hole, miles beneath the ground,and you see the issue.

So what will happen, is because of the increased problem with getting it out of the ground, the price per barrel will begin to rise. And not just rise from 60 to 62 dollars a barrel mind you; according to some estimates, the price of a barrel of oil will increase, five- to six-fold in only a few years time, to prices up to 200 dollars per barrel.

Also the demand is showing no indication that it will go down as well, only up. Just look at how the Chinese have switched from bikes to cars, and ramped up their fuel hungry industry, as have several other countries.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

7. Ah, the old Ronald Reagan environmental policy:

"no need to worry about the environment, the world's going to end soon."

So, Prophet Roman, when is the comet going to hit?

(Oh, and according the Bush, the world's only been around 6,000 years. Why do you hate America?)

[Warren DeMontague]

9. You're kidding, right?

"God's Plan" included SUVs with "rapture ready" bumper stickers?

I guess "He" hates glaciers and polar bears, too. All part of the plan!

But wait. Billions of years? I thought the Earth was only 6,000 years old, and dinosaurs were on "Noah's Ark". I'm confused!

Hey, welcome to DU. :hi: Enjoy your stay.

[Bushwick Bill]

4. The government numbers are juiced.

People in peak oil circles say we are likely at or near ripping through the first trillion of 2 trillion recoverable.
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html

[hunter]

8. Look at those giant very expensive oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

They tell you that the easy oil in the United States is mostly gone.

Pretty soon now, if not today, that's the way it will be with the rest of the world.

The easy oil is mostly gone.

"If money was no object..."

Yeah, right. So much of our economy is based on easy oil that the stability of the dollar will become a very big problem.

I think it's very likely that oil is going to cost hundreds or thousands of dollars per gallon within the next decade, not because it will be all that much harder to get, but because our present economy cannot support itself without easy oil.

I think the Bush administration knows this, and this motivates their attacks on Iraq and Iran.

The problem with the Bush administration is that they can't imagine an economy without easy oil. This failure of imagination will very likely destroy the United States as we know it.