'06 Hurricanes May Hit New Target: The Northeast

[joeunderdog]

"We see conditions off the eastern seaboard — above normal water temperatures — that indicate that this might be where hurricanes will be headed," added another Accuweather hurricane forecaster, Bernie Rayno.

One of the worst-case scenarios is a hurricane hitting the Northeast. "Particularly New York City, if one of these category 3 storms came in with a large storm surge, that'd cause tremendous flooding in New York," Gray said. "Subways flooded away. Underground electronics . That would be a major disaster for the Northeast."

snip
"It could bring a large storm surge, massive damage to New England even if it's category 3 like the famous storm of 1938," said Gray.

Back then, amid a similar weather pattern, a "50 to 100 foot wall of water came across the Hamptons, devastated everything," Bastardi said. "Providence was under water. tremendous flooding in Connecticut River valley."

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=1958213&page=1

We've had over 15" of rain up here in the last several days and entire towns are under water. Rivers are overflowing with at least one partial dam break. One river backed up into the sewage treatment complex and 150m gallons of untreated waste is now flowing into the river. Nothing, I repeat NOTHING to see here. No such thing as Global Warming, No such thing as Global Warming, No such thing as Global Warming, No such thing as Global Warming...

We're All in trouble.

[Divine Discontent]

1. disturbing, eh?

gosh, can't we get bush out of office with an impeachment TODAY! he makes everything worse by ignoring the real probs

[ShortnFiery]

2. Oh boy! This, The Bird Flu, War on Terra and/or Nuclear Winter ...

There's just so many things to be afraid of ... I choose *none of the above* because I'm as mad as hell and I'm not going to vote these criminals into office anymore, i.e., corporate enablers. ;)

[joeunderdog]

5. I don't think Global Warming is a bluff.

Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid.

[ShortnFiery]

7. It does not good to be afraid of what you can't control ...

If we can get Environmentalist Candidates, then great. But no, if I personally can't control it, I choose NOT to be afraid but to ADJUST as best I can.

That's the problem with our nation since 9-11 - we can't think logically due to fear. If ever we needed the courage to do what is right within our little spheres of control, the time is now. :-)

[marmar]

11. Don't forget the terrorist alligators roaming around Florida...

:scared: :scared: :scared:

Michael Moore has plenty of material should he produce a Fahrenheit 9/11 Part II.

[no_hypocrisy]

3. NYC = NOLA

And you thought that * and Congress abandoned the City after 9-11.

You ain't seen nothin' yet.

Even Giuliani won't be able to fix this (Sarcasm).

[annabanana]

4. We on Long Island are SO looking forward to this..

[Acadia Blue]

6. I sufferred losses from Katrina, and am hoping we don't see another season

like the last one. I have 4 acres of down trees and the insurance will not pay to remove them. My roof was fixed and I am waiting in line to have 2 rooms and a hallway fixed. Hurricanes are terrible.

[stop the bleeding]

9. stay strong

Florida resident here, I have been very lucky so far the last few years, I am just starting to surf the Hurricane blogs again. Gulf Coasters should live with eye on the radar between June and December.

Good wishes for this next season.

[mcscajun]

10. You may luck out this year...

from the same article as the OP:

The good news, experts say, is that due to a cyclical pattern, the hard-hit Gulf Coast most likely will escape the devastation it experienced last season.

"We're projecting two-thirds of activity of last year, not as much as last year," said Dr. Bill Gray, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University.

And a belated welcome to DU!
:)

[aquart]

8. and this is my nightmare.

This is why I want Gore as the next president. He's the only one who understands the enemy we're really facing.

[Loge23]

12. Remember Donna

I was a little kid in 1960 living on a narrow peninsula (Rockaway Beach) in NY.
Hurricane Donna was the worst storm I ever experienced. The storm reduced the boardwalk to splinters and toppled the concrete handball court walls. The oceanfront looked like it was bombed.
The Rockaway peninsula is between the Atlantic Ocean and Jamaica Bay. The storm caused these two bodies of water to merge over the peninsula. I don't know what other areas were damaged, but I assume Long Beach and other south shore towns were also whacked pretty good.
I was ground zero for Jeanne and Francis in 2004 and took a hit from Wilma last year. Believe me, they aren't fun.
The NE has been in the clear for the most part in recent years, but don't let your guard down.

[WePurrsevere]

13. How accurate have their predictions been in the past? (where & how many)

According to the OP article: "Experts say 17 storms and nine hurricanes — including five major hurricanes — could inflict damage this season. That's fewer than the 28 named storms, 13 hurricanes and seven major hurricanes last year."

Although I do tend to follow hurricanes a bit I don't recall the predictions for last year. Does anyone remember how many they predicted for last year versus how many actually occured and did they predict that they would hit the Gulf coast the hardest/most often?

We're far enough up in NY that if hurricanse hit the northeast coast the worst that we'll probably get hit will be the high winds, hail, rains and possibly tornado spin offs but thankfully not the brunt of any of them. Since we have family and dear friends down there I'm naturally much more concerned about them hitting the east coast in general and especially NYC/LI and possibly following the Hudson River up into the capital district (one has in the past if I recall my hometown local history correctly).

Our thoughts and "prayers" go out to those along the coasts... may you and your loved ones all stay safe and sound.

[Lisa]

17. some previous forecasts (and comparisons with what did happen)

The past few years have been more active than normal (the half-century average is about 10 named storms per year, give or take 4 ... a half-dozen of which turn out to be hurricanes ... but we have been seeing a lot more than that). Both these forecasts have tended to undershoot the actual number ... it looks like the CSU team have beefed up their numbers this year, while stating that things will probably not be worse than 2005. In any case, the forecasts will get closer to what actually happens, by the time July arrives (variables like how warm the Gulf of Mexico is will be known by then).

Colorado State University:
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

UK Tropical Storm Research (London)
http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/for_hurr.html

[WePurrsevere]

18. Thanks for answering. That's what I thought, that they had under estimated

I'm fervently hoping that they over estimated the number this year and that any damage is kept to a minimal.

[stop the bleeding]

14. look at this image for NOAA - be glad you are not Hong Kong

[Last Stand]

15. That looks like a map of the politcal atmosphere in the Bush War Room.

If you ignore global Warming, at some point, it'll all go away.

[Lisa]

16. even a minor hurricane hitting an area which is already saturated ...

... can be very, very bad news. A number of people died, as far north as Canada, when Hurricane Hazel went through -- because there had been an unusually-high amount of rainfall in the preceding months.

I just hope that the ground where you are has a chance to lose that water load (through runoff, down into aquifers, or evapotranspiration), before any hurricanes show up.

[conflictgirl]

19. What a coincidence

...that those happen to be the states most solidly disapproving of Bush right now.

/tinfoil

Yes, I'm kidding. I don't believe * controls the weather. But I have had just about enough of his insistence that global warming isn't real.

[bigwillq]

20. Now that would suck.

:mad: :scared: