Experts: Hurricane season won't match 2005

[Maddy McCall]

By LAURA WIDES-MUNOZ
Associated Press Writer

MIAMI (AP) -- The next Atlantic hurricane season could produce up to 16 named storms, six of them major hurricanes, suggesting another active year but not the record pounding of 2005, scientists said Monday.

Some parts of the Gulf Coast are only starting to rebuild from Hurricane Katrina, the worst of last year's record 28 named storms, 15 of which were hurricanes, seven of them Category 3 or higher.

While such a season is not predicted this year, National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield warned: "One hurricane hitting where you live is enough to make it a bad season."

Meteorologists said water in the Atlantic is not as warm as it was at this time in 2005, meaning potential storms would have less of the fuel needed to develop into hurricanes. Scientists said it was unclear whether atmospheric conditions that helped produce the 2005 storms will happen again this year, but the Pacific Ocean water conditions known as El Nino and La Nina will not affect the season.


More at: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/H/HURRICANE_PREDICTION?SITE=MSJAD&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT


If you click on the link below, a really cool interactive window on hurricanes in US history will pop up:

http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/_national/hurricanes/index_history.html?SITE=AP?SECTION=HOME

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Good news for us gulf staters--and those of you on the east coast. :)

[babylonsister]

1. Bad news: I haven't believed a weatherperson in a long time. nt

[Maddy McCall]

3. The weather will do what it will do.

And it's really difficult to predict--and the meteorologists often get it wrong...but it's good to know that the ocean and gulf aren't as hot as they were last year at this time. (The temps fluctuate, though, and it will heat up as summer progresses.)

Even if there are only six major hurricanes, if one goes through where you live, like Katrina did here, well, it's bad news that isn't diminished by the fact that only six of them will be major.

[babylonsister]

5. Yes, that's why I hold such little faith. If you're in the path, these

predictions don't do much good.

[Maddy McCall]

8. I agree.

I hate this time of year. I'm hoping that no one has to go through what especially merh went through, and is still going through.

We've recovered--repaired the house--although MMjr's playhouse is still demolished--but that's ok, because the house we live in is still here.

But merh is still living in a FEMAnsion. I hope and pray that the Mississippi Gulf Coast and NOLA don't have to go through it again.

:)

[babylonsister]

11. You went through plenty, as did/is merh, SwampRat, and quite a

few others. I hope the gulf coast is spared a huge, or any, hit also.
I've been anxious since last year; we're taking our yearly vacation in July so we can be here to evacuate if need be. :-(

[Maddy McCall]

18. It seems like I read that Texas would be hit early in the season...

and then projected paths shift east.

That's a good plan for y'all. I'll be here pretty much all summer--we're taking some short minivacations throughout the summer, but we won't be so far away that if we need to come home we can't.

Did that make sense?

:)

[babylonsister]

19. Yes, but now you're scaring me. I heard someone say today-

local/CNN?-that they didn't expect the season to really get juiced until August.
We do have friends who hang around here a lot when we're gone, but I want to be
here if anything major is about to hit the fan.

[Maddy McCall]

20. No...don't let me scare you...

I'm not talking about this hurricane season--that was just hurricane seasons in general.

If you ask me, everything we ever thought we knew about hurricanes went out the window last season.

Don't let my post alarm you. Last year, it was well into September when Port Arthur got hit.

[SoCalDem]

2. Did you see NOAA's composite pic of last year? Scary

It's here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1254963&mesg_id=1254963

[Maddy McCall]

4. Is this the same photo or is this this year's?

Because they look eerily similar.

[SoCalDem]

6. It's from today.. the pic I mean was one further down

this one..

The one you saw up close and personal :scared:

[Maddy McCall]

7. Still gives me chills.

She was huge...I hope we don't see anything like her again. :scared:

[Gabi Hayes]

9. what about the Gulf of Mexico water temperature?

that's what caused all the bad ones last year

and didn't they warn about bad hurricanes in the Northeast this year? there were some threads here recently that discussed that

[Maddy McCall]

10. I don't know.

Have you heard anything about Gulf temps?

I'd be interested to know. I know that we didn't get any hard freezes in south Mississippi this year.

[SoCalDem]

12. Th elink I posted above contains water temps from all over the plave

:)

[Gabi Hayes]

15. well....I have lots of stuff to do.....this keyboardin' stuff is work!

HARD WORK! I tell you.

can you do it for me?

they said a one degree difference in Gulf water temperature was what generated the huge heat sink last year; the one that caused K(C?)atrina to gain such horrific strength once it crossed Florida

if that happens again this year....

[Rainscents]

14. I did on the radio early last week and what I heard...

It's bad news... Water Temp is already much warmer then this time last year. This is very bad news!

[Maddy McCall]

16. I thought I had heard that, too.

The article says it's cooler, but I swear that I heard that they were actually much warmer than last year at this time.

[Rainscents]

13. I don't trust our governments info any more... they lie all the time!

[Ladyhawk]

17. I don't think anyone can predict the weather this far in advance. :(

Dammit, I hope this hurricane season is a dud, though.