If China makes a military move on Taiwan, would we really take them on?

[Skidmore]

I don't see it happening, short of using the nucular option. I heard that China has building up troops opposite Taiwan for several months now.

[ContraBass Black]

1. Ha.

No.


:scared:

[Rosemary2205]

2. Are you kidding?

China could do any damn thing they want with no opposition. They pretty much have the world by the economic short hairs now.

[Disturbed]

3. Not unless the Bush Regime wants to

commit economic suicide.

[SammyWinstonJack]

4. When pigs fly.

[Imajika]

5. I hope we would...

We have pledged to support Taiwan in the event China tries to militarily seize it.

Taiwan has democratized and is a free country, China is not. Taiwan is a friend, China is a competitor.

It would be a disgrace if an ally like Taiwan were attacked, regardless of where people stand on the One China policy, and we did nothing to assist our Taiwanese friends.

[tjwash]

6. Well, now you know how the Chinese felt when they watched the U.S....

...amass troops in the middle east before the US invaded Iraq

[libhill]

7. No way -

we can't even get ourselves out of the Iraqi quagmire...anyway, the Bush Admin. are bullies, they only take on nations that they can (hypothetically) beat.

[Scoody Boo]

9. Only 10% of our forces are in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Chinese invasion fleet would be easily sunk as it cannot compare in anyway to ours. The aging MIGs of China are very inferior to our aircraft.

China would have all those troops massed on their shore and no way to get them to Taiwan.

[sweetheart]

11. And los angeles would look great

with a bucket of sunshine.

The presumption that the opponent is not wise to war is foolhardy.

War is about more than hardware, or the sherman tank would never have
taken europe from the Tiger.

[depakid]

13. "...aging MIGs?"

Apparently, you haven't been paying attention.

I suggest having a look at this article from Air Force Magazine.

http://www.afa.org/magazine/feb2006/0206china.asp

[Scoody Boo]

15. Even the newer Migs...

are not technologically superior to the US inventory. The Air Force already has some f-22s that make even the most modern Migs look like a Sopwith Camel.

Also the combat experience of our pilots compared to theirs. I do not think we can fight a war on the Chinese Mainland and win. But we can stop an invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese.

[depakid]

21. The Cope India results suggest otherwise

The USAF did surprisingly poorly, even with conditions set up the way they were.

Currently, there's one operational squandron of F-22's at langley. Probably not enough to make much of a strategic difference.

[sweetheart]

20. wargame lessons

I've really learned a lot from the command and conquor battlfield video game,
as it is clear that a first strike to open up an air corridor is by far the most fierce
and devastating total war methodologies in existance. In the extreme case, light
up a sunshine fence with a nuke every 10 miles for 1000 miles to open up a corridor,
then fly sorties against all air defenses until they are south. Once air superiority
is established, hit targets in priority until checkmate. As long as you have enough
movable air hardware, the strategy works for total warfare anywhere in the world,
and as a general, as sick as it sounds, it would be an option.. war is a political
means, no more, not evil, not good, just "is".

If you try a pure embedded superweapons strategy, air power can defeat it. The new paradigm
of the maginot line is fixed strategic weapons, fixed in any way, and shifting things to a
dynamic frame of many many airfields spread out everyfuckingwhere, and making suprise strike
attacks until total "sherman" is achieved.

The thing that makes china dangerous is that it has the political will to oppose the US and
4 times the population, something that would supply a brutal war, one where brutal decisions
were made to deter the neo-englishman's burden.

A nuke on an american city, no mattr the damage to a foreign opponennt will destroy america's
spirit in a way that people really don't want to find out about. I think people all over the
world who've seen war closer-up than ameircans, even as naughty as bush has been, wouldn't wish
that on anyone... its tragic the arrogance that would play that brink.

[libhill]

16. Don't underestimate the Chinese

they've been aroung a lot longer than have we. And they have been buying ship killer missiles from Russia that could blow an aircraft carrier out of the water.

[Scoody Boo]

17. Like I said...

We could not go to war against China in China and win. But I think we could prevent them from invading Taiwan. Their Navy would be decimated and all their troops would be left on their own shores. No troop transport no invasion.

[libhill]

19. Air power -

air lifts, paratroops. Where there's a will, there's a way...

[Scoody Boo]

22. Troops need resupply...

need to be rearmed. You cannot resupply an invasion force completely by air.

It was logistics that helped defeat Hitler against Russia more than the Russians did.

[sweetheart]

27. The taiwan straight would not involve us ground

forces, as the kmt, the taiwanese army is long prepared to
defend its ground, all US forces need do is strike all airfields
missile, ship weapons platforms and AA sites. The sorties could
be flown from missouri. China does not want to go there and neither
does the US... fact. We are both gonna get a grip on the fools
amongst us and make sure such outrageous consequences remain
inconsciounable.

[hogwyld]

40. That cuts both ways...

Who do you think get resupplied better, the Chinese troops about 100 miles from home, or our guys 4000 miles from home???? I expect they have a lot of little surprises for us should it come down.

[Yupster]

34. They've been around a lot longer than we have

and things are going their way, so why mess it up with a ruinous war?

As their economy gets more and more powerful, they will increase their ties to Taiwan naturally until a reunification occurs. Why devastate your country and economy? China is plenty patient.

[libhill]

42. Exactly -

They never saw any need to retake Hong Kong by force...

[mdmc]

8. yes

no doubt

[Squatch]

10. Without question

This admin has a penchant for throwing thousands of service members' lives at the foot of un-winnable wars.

[Deja Q]

12. China had no qualms when the US threatened them re:pirated software.

And they want that economy too.

So, no, nothing is going to happen.

[gp]

14. a few months ago...i would have said no...but

now that they have jack bauer, we might.

[DeaconBlues]

18. China would be foolish at this point to try anything

China has an obsolete navy that we would make mincemeat of if they tried to cross the Taiwan Strait. They could bomb the Hell out of Taiwan, but it would be all for nothing, because they couldn't capture the island, not with their current military. And with a trade surplus in the billions with us, the Chinese would suffer economically just as much, if not more, than the United States.

Its a shame that people here, just because they don't like the current administration, lapse into defeatism. Taiwan is a democracy that we have promised to defend. China is a dictatorship we should not appease out of fear or greed.

War with China would be horrible, but it would be most horrible for the Chinese. At this point, they are not ready to do anything about Taiwan. Ten or twenty years down the road, who knows?

[Conan_The_Barbarian]

23. Hah the US public couldn't stomach a real war

I don't think anyone in this country could comprehend a war on such a scale. Could you imagine turning on your TV to find out that US Pacific forces were delievered a devastating blow with a list of carriers, battleships, and submarines sunk and casulties in single day in the tens of thousands. Could you even comprehend the streets of LA being an all out real warzone. Not just petty gang violence but legions of tanks and attack helicopters moving down the steets while bombers overhead shred the city. Dozens of miles of way you hear the constant sound of machine gun fire and explosions. To find that certain cities and grounds are no longer property of the United States but fly the flags of a foriegn nation.

If you ever want to feel a really creepy emotion just walk around your town and envision it being the site of an actual battle. Seeing the soldiers using your brick wall for cover while it's riddle with machine gun bullets while mortars bombard your neighbors house and a sniper picks off men from on top of a tree house. It creeps the absolute hell out of me.

Of course as it seems now a war between the US and China would seem futile. China would dominate on the home front, it's population is simply too large while we'd likely dominate the seas and air... If I remeber correctly a similar set up provided the framework for justifying the first nuclear strike in history.

[Rainscents]

24. Our Military is BROKEN by Bush and I believe, China has been

building their Military while we go broke by them and Bush. China been working on this for past 20 years... one day to take Taiwan back. I believe, they'll do it within next 5 years. Thanks to our Congress and Bush!

[file83]

39. Very good point!

[Dan]

25. Silly question....

China owns our financial ass...

[BringEmOn]

26. Why? Taiwan ain't got no oil.

:sarcasm:

[madrchsod]

28. no--- the walton family would give someone a call.

it would cost them billions to move production to africa

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

29. Sorry. Our glorious military is busy getting it's ass kicked in Iraq.

Even BushCorp can't be stupid enough to attempt to take on a real foe if it can't even beat a "failed insurgency" armed with small arms and homemade explosives.

Then again, their capacity for stupidity does seem boundless.

[solinvictus]

30. Wal Mart wouldn't allow it..

China owns our ass now, so I think they can essentially do as they please thanks to Wally Whirled.

[K-W]

31. No, but it would be cold war time. EOM

[LanternWaste]

32. Not likely with * in office... however--

Not likely with * in office... however--

China does not have the ability to move more than three divisions worth of troops by air transports and only one sixth of that by sea transport. Taiwan's ground troops and tactical ground support aircraft would eradicate any landing before it could be reiniforced.

Three divisions worth of air transport *before* we take into account the surface to air defence in which Taiwan has been "gifted" by the U.S. over the past 30 years.

China has been huffing and puffing in regards to Taiwan for years. The military exercises we see every 18 months or so is nothing more than posturing to advertise balls.

[Odin2005]

33. The Chinese arn't stupid enough to invade Taiwan in the near future.

Our economies are so intracately linked that it would cause both our economies to collapse if we went to war.

[file83]

38. Or just ours - the entire world buys products from China.

[Odin2005]

45. Yeah, but we're the biggest market, IIRC.

[davepc]

35. The US Navy would

and depending on what happens it could signal the end of the carrier battle group as we know it.

The US Navy dosent have the vessels to fight a littoral combat operation against a well equipped and professional force.

The Chinese military mission in an invasion of Taiwan would be to create an air/sea corridor between the mainland and the island to ferry an initial invasion force, reinforcements, and supplies to the front lines. The UN Navy would try to close off that corridor with Naval air power and fast attack submarines.

The Chinese would create that corridor with a mix of land based aircraft, diesel electric submarines, fast attack missile boats, and land based anti-ship missiles.

Due to the close proximity of the Chinese mainland, the US Navy would have its ass hanging out on a line, while Chinese forces would be operating close to their home bases and in favorable territory.

The carriers would have to operate outside the ranges of the Chinese missile capability while assisting the taiwanese defenders as well as protecting the carrier battle group from missile attack.

One Chinese submarine or 3-4 Type 37-II missile boats who are able to slip into effective weapons range could kill 5,000 sailors and render an entire battle group useless.

Our Navy was designed to protect resupply convoys in the North Atlantic from isolated Russian bomber and submarine attacks, not engage a modern multidimensional threat against its own shores.

[FlyingTiger]

36. Alright

Take it from someone who is currently in the USAF, and has studied military hardware, tactics, and strategy for over a decade now - the US could very easily shut down any Chinese attempt to invade. I could go into a very lengthy, very technical explanation as to the many reasons why, but let's just make a simple analogy instead:

Gulf War I: The US fights a very well-defined, very WWII/Cold War-style enemy in the Iraqi armed forces. The task is to defeat an army. America wins one of the most lopsided wars in history against what was, at the time, the fourth-largest military in the world.

Gulf War II: The US fights a completely undefined, very Vietnam-style enemy in a national insurgency. The task is to defeat guerrilla fighters and an ideaology. America has problems.

Now, to continue to look at this simply, which kind of war would this be? Scenario I, or scenario II? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that this is a textbook nation-versus-nation, army-versus-army scenario, one the US is extremely well-prepared for. Militarily, it could easily stop an attempted invasion of Taiwan.

Now, economically, the repurcussions aren't fun ot imagine. But that's a different story entirely.

[file83]

37. Oh, but you are forgetting one very major detail....

...the core of our military fighting forces are currently fighting a war in the Middle East. We are heavily committed. We have a president that wants to go to war with Iran. If China attacked Taiwan tomorrow, just what in the hell do you think we could do to STOP (not just create a temporary obstacle for) the Chinese juggernaut?

The Chinese own us economically as well. Not only are they the largest importer of goods into our country, they own hundreds of billions of dollars of our debt. If we intervened, what good would that do us (assuming they didn't just crush our fleet first)?

[davepc]

41. It'll be a Naval engagement

And the Navy isn't stuck in a desert somewhere.

If we lose the Naval battle then all the ground troops in the world wont matter, because as long as the PRoC has the ability to reinforce its beachhead its only a matter of time before they win due to sheer numbers.

[newyawker99]

44. Hi FlyingTiger!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[catmandu57]

43. I don't think so

China can afford to wait until we wear ourselves out fighting in the ME, then make their move. Years down the road, maybe not that far either we'll be a bankrupted shell of a once great nation and China can reclaim Taiwan then.

[FlyingTiger]

46. File83...

...our land forces are stuck in Iraq. Fighting off the Chinese in Taiwan would involve a couple dozen Los Angeles Class subs, as many as five carrier battle groups if we had time to get that many there (more likely three in the time span of this hypothetical war), and various aircraft from Okinawa and Guam. That's about it. Our operations in Iraq and our operations in this conflict would literally be almost completely unrelated.

And gracias, Newyawker, I appreciate it. I mean, uh... thank you. Gotta keep up with the official language and all. ;)

[rustydog]

47. No, we are incapable of it and would allow it to occur