I really shouldn't do this, but I'm going to give Bush some advice here

[bluestateguy]

Drop the immigration bill.

As a pro-union, lunchbucket Democrat, I oppose the bill in its current form because I believe it will only institutionalize a large class of permanent and invisible low-wage workers; workers who will work for less, and workers who will be less likely to unionize. That will exert a downward pressure on wages and benefits for all workers. Until such time as the government cracks down on employer exploitation of immigrants--which Bush is unwilling to do--then I will oppose this bill. Of course the bill badly divides the Republican base, so as a Democrat, I am delighted to see Bush press the issue further.

But the fact of the matter here is that this immigration bill is damaging Bush's relationship with his base: social conservatives, many of whom are of working class backgrounds. It's the business conservatives who really want this bill, for they are the ones who have become accustomed to cheap, invisible labor, from the domestic workers in their McMansions to the manual laborers in their businesses.

Bush is in the mid to low 30's in the polls, suggesting that there is a noticeable chunk of his base that is upset with him, for various reasons. Indeed, the business conservatives are just as mad at Bush over the runaway government spending (and no presidential vetoes in 5 1/2 years), as the anti-immigrant conservatives are mad at him over the immigration issue. He should be unifying his base right now, not alienating them further with this bill. Hispanic voters are also mad at Bush over a wide range of other domestic and foreign policy issues. Passing this bill will not change their overall perceptions of Bush.

Recall late 1993, when Bill Clinton pushed for NAFTA. He won that fight, but at the terrible cost of demoralizing the Democratic base, which opposed the bill. We all know what happened in the 1994 elections, as a consequence. Republicans run the risk of making the same mistake in 2006: pass the bill, and anger anti-immigrant social conservatives, who then take a walk on election day; or try to pass the bill and fail, hence angering anti-immigrant social conservatives, and the cheap labor business conservatives who will feel let down. Either way, the GOP, and Bush, loses. It's just a question of how much. He should cut his losses and drop the bill.

[joemurphy]

1. I agree with a lot of what you say, but not about

"institutionalizing a lot of low-wage workers" who are unlikely to unionize.
Giving the illegals a legitimate status will mean that they can go complain to Wage and Hour when employers cheat them on overtime. They don't have to just take what the boss gives them anymore without any hope of recourse.

As for the union issue, the unions have been pretty moribund in the U.S. for quite a while. A notable exception have been membership gains in some of the service industries -- like hotel workers -- which are heavily Hispanic. I think the newly empowered Hispanic workers will flock to unions. I think that's a good thing.

Both of the above will be factors having a tendency to raise wages. A Democratic win and an increase in the minimum wage would help a lot too. I guess, I'm just a bit more positive about the Immigration Bill then you.

Of course, nothing has been passed yet and there are strong indications that nothing will be before the 2006 elections.

[Lib Grrrrl]

3. Well, You And I Disagree Then

because I think it will push wages DOWN.
Thus, I, too, am against the bill.

Bush needs to arrest a bunch of employers who are hiring illegal aliens. But he won't do that.

[Richard Steele]

5. If B*shCabal™ wants it, then you KNOW it will push wages down. nm

[Lib Grrrrl]

6. Egg-Freaking-Zactly!! n/t

[peace frog]

2. That's OK... he won't take it anyway

but it's the thought that counts, right?

[bluestateguy]

4. kick

:kick:

[bluestateguy]

7. kick

:kick:

[diamondsndust]

8. my advice to Smirky McChimp .....

Try the high dive at the empty pool! :evilgrin:

[VP505]

9. If for no other

reason this bill as written should be dropped simply because it's unworkable. They have managed to take a relative simple problem and create a so called solution that is so complex in trying to satisfy everyone that in the end nobody will be happy with it, except maybe the cheep labor lobby. Maybe that's what they had in mind all along.