Why I think the economy is on the verge of collapse (and Bush knows)

[Pale Blue Dot]

2 items in the news recently have made put on my economic tinfoil hat. The first, a few weeks ago, had to do with the government no longer reporting how much new money they were injecting into the economy. Why would they want to keep that a secret, I wondered.

But it was a little discussed news item from last week that has me convinced the house of cards is about to come down. Business week reported that Bush had delegated to John Negroponte the authority to allow businesses to ignore financial reporting requirements. You can see the story here:

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/12952860

Any discussion of this article has inevitably been about the increasing role that the military and intelligence communities have in our daily life. But again, I wondered, just what are they trying to do here? My answer: I think they're trying to steal one more election.

My argument is based on the premise that the last two elections have been stolen by the right. For those who want a detailed analysis of why I believe that, I'll direct you to Mark Crispin Miller's excellent book Fooled Again, and various threads in the elections forum. My feeling is that if the elections were held today, and they were fair and transparent, the Democrats would win in a landslide. However, it's still plausible that the Democrats could lose, mostly due to the incumbency factor. That "rule" states that whenever people are pissed off at congress, they believe that all of the bums should be voted out except their own bums. It is that factor, in cahoots with the lapdog media, that I believe the right will use to make the stolen outcome of the 2006 seem "legitimate".

The only possible flaw in their plan would be if the economy completely collapses. The economy is all that's left that the President can point to as a "victory", even if those of us here do not see that as a realistic claim. If the economy went bad suddenly, that would leave Bush and the Republicans with nothing left to run on. At that point, I think that an election victory would become completely implausible.

In other words, they wouldn't be able to steal the election without it being extremely obvious, even to the most devoted conservatives.

So if the economy's about to collapse, how can you stave it off for at least a few extra months? You allow companies to essentially "cook their books" a la Enron. Many corporations would gladly go along with the charade, because posting accurate bad numbers would result in loss of shareholder value and open them up for lawsuits. Even those few "honest" corporations might be forced to fudge their records in order to remain competitive.

I believe that the actual purpose of Bush's order is to allow companies, in the name of "homeland security", to lie to the American public about the actual state of their finances. If I'm right, this ruse would only last for so long before it would collapse under it's own weight, leading us to even greater financial ruin.

It would also mean that the right feels they need just one more election to make their coup complete.

[rzemanfl]

1. I made the point in your fourth paragraph about "our bum"

here several weeks ago, I will try to find link.

[conflictgirl]

2. Whoa...that is SCARY

Not quite as scary as rumored secret detention centers but nonetheless seems to be yet another example of government power running amok and unchecked. How can this be happening? Why hadn't I heard anything about this before? Yikes.

[spindrifter]

3. I am not so sure the

second point has to do with the state of the economy as a whole. Why? Because it deals with excusing companies with defense contracts from the usual reporting requirements. It does not appear to deal with reporting outside that context. IMHO delegating this option to Negroponte is a boatload of crap. We should require full reporting by anyone with a government contract, that is, require both reporting to the government contract or grant source and to shareholders. Otherwise, there is less and less transparency.

[Pale Blue Dot]

4. I read through the article and the statute several times

And while the article implies that this only has to do with companies with government contracts, I can't find anything in the wording that omits other companies. :shrug:

[lectrobyte]

40. What company of any size doesn't have some government contracts

these days?

[elehhhhna]

72. Not just defese co's-- telecoms, too. And God knows who else.

[pretzel4gore]

5. that was germany....

pre ww 2.....hitler and the nazis ran up the country's debt, to unsupportable heights: the idea was that they would literally rob europe to pay the debt or simply pay it off using funny money (this aspect of the nazi program, while known about, still has never been fully told to the people, in part because too many dirty fingers are/were anglo american)...few people realize how oppressive the 'reparations' germany was forced to pay following ww1, a sitution that made hitler almost inevitable. SO, When the pigmedia is compared to ted bundy, or g ridgeway, or john gacy, it isn't just hyperbole: they would eagerly murder millions, the main brake being the fear of getting caught. bush has proven the corporate newsmedia deserve ....exactly what bush deserves....

[elehhhhna]

73. They found some of that "funny money" (counterfeit Brit Pound notes)

in a lake in europe somewhere a few years ago.

[rwenos]

6. This Applies to All Publicly Held Companies

And is a stunning expansion of the secrecy for which the Bush Administration has such a passion.

This is really sinister. One of the foundations of the New Deal, and one of the most effective protections against a repeat of the Great Depression, is the SEC's regimen requiring full disclosure of financial details.

These guys are rolling back the CORE of economic regulation of the national economy. The implications are huge. To say this is just about secret op's is BS. This is about carte blanche for massive corporate fraud across America.

Little old ladies, pension funds, small investors - be afraid. Be very afraid.

[WiseButAngrySara]

11. Would you please address post #3? I tend to agree with it, but since

your interpretation is that this would apply to all "publically held" Companies, you agree with the OP, that this is more than just favoring the MIC that profits from the war?

I was panicked when I read about this on DU, but its' implications have not been covered by M$M. I wish that I understood economics better! (Though I received A's in economics in college!)

This statement in particular is especially ominous:
This is about carte blanche for massive corporate fraud across America.

[earth mom]

7. OMG! K & R! eom

[petgoat]

8. With respect to the injection of new money into the economy,

the cunningrealist had some interesting observations re: 9/11 and 7/7.

http://cunningrealist.blogspot.com/2005/07/following-money.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

10. Interesting and scary.

Thanks!

[SmokingJacket]

71. Wow!

There is so, so, SO much that we know nothing about...

[Canuckistanian]

9. Can't argue with that logic

It's amazing how, when you put all those little head-scratchers together, it makes sense.

Then, all of a sudden you're horrified by the implications of it all.

I hope you're wrong, but you make a good case, considering the morally bankrupt slimeballs really have no limits.

[WiseButAngrySara]

12. 'Horrified by the implications after head-scratching!' If THAT's not the

truth...

[WiseButAngrySara]

13. Frightening post, but needs to be discussed and understood. KNR. n/t

[Pale Blue Dot]

14. I agree totally

I'm not an economic expert, and I'd really like to feel that I'm completely wrong....

[Mr_Spock]

15. Interesting theory

I can't buy the part about the companies fudging their numbers to support Bushco. This theory assumes that all of the people in these companies management structures are conservative and would break other laws to comply with this bit of tom-foolery. I don't buy it - I happen to know the CFO of our company and he is a long-time liberal and is honest to a fault. The companies lack of ethics when it comes to workers and outsourcing does not mean that the company is filled with unethical people (fortunately).

[Pale Blue Dot]

16. I don't think they'd do it to support Bush.

These days, even reporting profits that don't increase as much as expected can cause a company's stock price to drop (my companies stock dropped 10% after its last, decent, earnings report.) Severe drops in stock prices lead to shareholder lawsuits.

I think they would fudge the numbers purely for their own financial interests.

(But I do think a lot of corporations are beholden to Bushco.)

[PetraPooh]

25. Or the CFO of your company will be replaced when

he doesn't "allow" the company to make full benefit of these new found tactics. OR if not replaced, other companies that do take advantage of these new tactics will ultimately put your company out of business.

Now like many already posted, I sure hope this isn't as scary as it seems to be; but whoa, it sure seems scary and just like outsourcing and bankrupting pension funds; those that stay true to their good hearts and souls, usually end up going down while the slimeballs rise to the top like the oily scumbags they are.

[AX10]

79. True. The business community would not....

do something so stupid just to prop up a politician.

[Imajika]

17. There is no indicator whatsoever...

...that suggests the economy is about to collapse. Even if Bush somehow issued an order allowing companies to lie about their finances, most wouldn't bother with it - and Bush certainly couldn't ORDER all major American companies to lie. Not all companies are public either. The US economy isn't run by a handful of CEO's, it is far, far, far, far bigger than maybe you understand. Your talking about about a conspiracy that would not only be utterly silly to attempt, there is no way it could be kept a secret. It's just not even remotely plausible.

Further, this theory seems to come from the assumption that the US economy MUST somehow be in bad shape. That is a bad assumption. The US economy is far stronger and more vibrant than you seem to think. Despite Bush, the US economy, historically speaking, is actually doing fairly well and is in fact outpacing much of the rest of the industrialized world.

There is simply no economic indicator at this time that even hints the US economy is any imminent danger.

I hope your not relying on ideological political websites for your economic news. If you read only DU, you could be led to believe that every weak economic indicator was surely a sign of disaster. The dollar goes down, you've got scads of people here that predict the dollar is doomed. Dollar rises, suddenly you don't hear anything about it for awhile. Inflation goes up a tad one month, another group of people predicting mass inflation right around the corner that will wreck the nation. Inflation goes down, same group now predicting a nightmarish deflationary period. Gold goes up, it's a sign a depression is coming. Gold goes down, you hear nothing about it again till gold goes back up. Point is, get your economic news from a wide range of news outlets for better perspective.

[Pale Blue Dot]

19. What about...

Massive public and private debt?

A disparity in wealth greater than right before the Great Depression?

High gas prices fueling inflation (I work in retail, and I see this happening)?

Increases in foreclosures and a bursting housing bubble?

I'm doing well, I just got a 10% raise, have very little debt, but I'm starting to feeling the squeeze. The economy may not be as bad as I think but I don't think it's quite as rosy as you seem to believe.

[Imajika]

22. Ya, I don't think anything...

...you just listed is serious enough to jeapardize the US economy in the short term - and probably not the long term either.

Massive public and private debt?

Been hearing about this bogeyman for years and years. Our national budget deficit is comparatively not all that significant. Too high? Yes. Crisis level high? Nope.

There is no evidence private debt load is an imminent danger to the US economy. It's another bogeyman we've been hearing for years with no evidence we are at a serious danger level.

A disparity in wealth greater than right before the Great Depression?

I'd question whether this is even true at all, but either way, that is not what caused the Great Depression.

High gas prices fueling inflation (I work in retail, and I see this happening)?

Though it may feel like it, adjusted for inflation, gas prices are not really that high. Could higher gas prices adversely effect the economy? Sure. Will higher gas prices play any part in imminent economic collapse? Not unless they were much, much, much higher than they are now.

Increases in foreclosures and a bursting housing bubble?

The Tech bubble busted around 2000 and even with 9-11, the ENRON collapse and accounting scandals occuring right about the same time, the economy only suffered a minor recession all things considered. Everything I've seen indicates that the deflation of the "housing bubble" (assuming such a thing really exists) has caused no real problem. The economy is healthy and handling it well all by itself.

The economy may not be as bad as I think but I don't think it's quite as rosy as you seem to believe.

I'm glad to hear your doing well, and gratz on the raise. I think you underestimate the power of the US economy, but you've got your opinion and I've got mine.

Thanks for your comments!

PS: I reread my first reponse to your original post and I'm sorry if it came off obnoxious and patronizing. DU is a sounding board for opinions and theories, and I need to learn to dial back a little and be more polite.

[omega minimo]

27. Can you wave that magic wand at the economy.........

the way you waved it at FinnFann's points? :evilgrin:

"I think you underestimate the power of the US economy, but you've got your opinion and I've got mine."

You seem quite certain of your opinion, but it's not apparent what facts you back it up with?

To FinnFann's list:

19. What about...
Massive public and private debt?
A disparity in wealth greater than right before the Great Depression?
High gas prices fueling inflation (I work in retail, and I see this happening)?
Increases in foreclosures and a bursting housing bubble?

....we might add:

--Fizzling housing bubble propping up U.S. economy AND Americans perception of how "good" the economy is
--MSM and the public starting to make the China connection and hear that "giant sucking sound" of jobs leaving the country and OH LOOK! The MEXICANS ARE COMING!
--Biznews crowing about increased "productivity" as the benchmark for how "healthy" the economy is, without ever explaining :wtf: "productivity" really is (outsourcing, offshoring, chasing cheap labor and new markets....................)

[girl gone mad]

63. You lost me at..

"assuming such a thing really exists".

The bubble may not be nationwide, but median house prices 12 to 20 times average annual income is not sustainable, just like the inflated internet P/E ratios were not sustainable.

[dkos refugee]

69. Imajining things

"The Tech bubble busted around 2000 and even with 9-11, the ENRON collapse and accounting scandals occuring right about the same time, the economy only suffered a minor recession all things considered. Everything I've seen indicates that the deflation of the "housing bubble" (assuming such a thing really exists) has caused no real problem."

First of all the REASON "the economy only suffered a minor recession" is because the Fed dropped interest rates down to nothing. This added to the housing boom. An extremely significant portion of our economic growth is coming as a result of growth in the housing sector. And now the signs of a collapse are imminent. Foreclosure rates up, by double digit percentages. And how about this. Try calculating the amount of interest you pay on a 1% loan vs a 5% loan, and then tell me how people who hold those loans are supposed to contribute to economic growth? They may be idiots for taking such loans, but it doesn't change the fact that when the housing boom stops we will be in big trouble. (WE, as in the middle class, not WE as in the parasite wall street scum who think the economy is going great just because it is going great for them.)

[The_Warmth]

70. Still...

why would the government stop reporting the money being put into the system?

[Roland99]

76. I have to wonder what you consider as the national debt.

Have you read these articles?

Federal Deficit Reality
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/article/id=342

Consumer Price Index
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/article/id=343

Employment and Unemployment Reporting
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn/article/id=341


And, also,

Almost Unnoticed, Bipartisan Budget Anxiety
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/17/AR2005051701238.html

[JackRiddler]

78. The debt alone is already enough

True, the size of the deficit in any given year is irrelevant.

But total accumulated public, private and corporate debt has shot up to above 320 percent. The bankers put away Argentina at 250%, and they would have forced any country in the world other than the US on to an IMF austerity plan long ago. Everyone would have moved out of the dollar, and it would have imploded. The reason that has not happened is because everyone is stuck with dollars. This country has the status as buyer of last resort of the surplus world product (in exchange for which it provides more air dollars - this is called "trade"), also the pricing of oil and other commodities in dollars, and the ability of the US military to crush any enemy it chooses to designate. The dollar was rescued recently by the regime's demonstration of its will and ability to seize the territory with the second-largest oil reserves in the world at will. The continued inability to secure victory, and the Russian and Iranian plans to switch to pricing oil in other currencies, are going to challenge both petrodollarization and the "Megaton standard" (the myth of American total military supremacy). These are the key pillars left standing.

The dollar is made of air. When a currency collapses, it is not usually a gradual process.

[PublicWrath]

23. In March the Fed quit publishing the numbers on how much cash is

circulating, now nobody really knows how much money is being printed.
Ron Paul introduced a sunshine bill which would force disclosure of this data, but I don't know what happened to it.

[ProfessorGAC]

62. NO THEY DIDN'T

Boy, have folks been fished in on this subject.

The M1 is the cash that is in circulation. The M2 includes time accounts that, while not completely liquid, can be converted into spendable cash in a short time, with little financial impact.

The M3 included all long term high value bonds and certificates. Those values are still published as public record by Treasury as a separate value.

Any new cash printed in excess of current volume is added, AUTOMATICALLY, to M1.

This "fact" is simply untrue and folks here at DU are too smart to fall for this propaganda.
The Professor

[Mr_Spock]

34. I agree with you.

There is no indication that this current natural recovery from the last recession is about to stop & have a reversal. There is definitely uncertainty out there as it is difficult to put a finger on which industries are going to power us into our next bull market - we sell products that all industries need & we usually see 3-6 months ahead of time. Still fits and starts at this point. I am still in a holding pattern with the economy and I still think there's a chance that fuel prices feeding inflation and just one incident that causes China to call our debt or any of a number of other issues with China that could easily send us into a downturn. One thing you can count on - if there is an issue, it will be a surprise to everyone - it always is. Bush had made us more vulnerable than ever to an incident IMHO - Bush has to kiss a lot of ass around the world at this point - and if anyone can make a country think we are plotting against them when we are really trying to kiss their ass, it's Bush :D

[omega minimo]

38. "we sell products that all industries need"

The "we" who sell things being further up the trickle-down food chain than the "we" who used to manufacture or produce "products that all industries need." You mention China calling in the debt-- but not the fact that "we" buy most products from China, where most of the manufacturing is done now... Working people are not part of the "we" you probably mean.

The corporate "we" sell things that are made outside the US via outsourced jobs and offshored profits and sold to Americans who used to hold those jobs. When Americans started to connect the dots, the Repugs and media trotted out the old "scary Mexicans" schtick that worked so well in California in the 90's when NAFTA was being shoved through Congress.

Which "we" are you talking about?

[Mr_Spock]

59. Our company sells products built in China to other companies in Asia

Most of the companies are American owned.

I was using my knowledge of our industry to make the bigger argument about the economy. We still design these products so that is my perspective. I also am very frustrated by the outsourcing of our jobs - but that clearly is a secondary argument and a distraction in this post - perhaps I should not have mentioned it.

[Iowa]

35. Good post...

Dire predictions have always been with us, but more often than not, the scenario of doom either doesn't pan out, or it is relatively short lived.

Does anyone here remember Ravi Batra's bestselling book, "The Great Depression of 1990"?

[rman]

37. The economy is vibrant for the rich,

not for the (working) poor and the middle class.
Low and middle incomes are stagnant or declining, stuff gets more expensive, while the rich get richer - it's there for all to see. Much of this is thanks to the magic of deregulation, and the issues the OP mentions is just more deregulation.

[dysfunctional press]

43. there are LOTS of trucks out on the highways...

my grandmother who lived in iowa, and could see the interstate from her farmhouse, always used to say that she could tell how well the economy was doing by the number of trucks on the highway(seeing as those trucks are hauling goods too and fro', and the more of them there are, the more business is being done).

and there are LOTS of trucks out there these days, even with the higher fuel prices.

people have been saying that economic collapse is just around the corner pretty much forever.

[donsu]

56. well, you see, we have gotten our info from widely diverse sources

and discuss it here at DU

our finances are hollow

[Junkdrawer]

61. Your denial pretty much caps it for me - we're in serious shit.

:scared:

[Ladyhawk]

18. Full metal helmet on...

If the right can completely control elections, they might let the "left" take over for a few years until the collapse comes, then the coup would seem realistic. Also, the corporations can at least partially control the rate of an economic collapse. It would be to their advantage for it to happen on the Democrats' watch. Of course the Democrats might do something about election theft, but I think this is unlikely. There are only a few who aren't in the pocket of big business.

I'm not sure if I believe what I just typed, but it is plausible if the corporations hold all the power to electoral outcomes.

[DemReadingDU]

20. I feel that Bush administration is running our country like Enron

They are cooking the books, just like Enron did, and eventually our country is going to implode, just like Enron.

[bdamomma]

46. oh sure, I believe that they all believe they are CEO's

and we are their employees, and don't care what their employees think. and I thought I heard many years ago, that the employees have the right to dislike their employers (but it won't change anything), I can see these whack jobs saying the same thing to the citizens of the US, what did bush say again, your with us or against us?

[marano35]

21. I think you are not off-base.

They are trying to bring it to fruition as soon as possible. I put nothing past them.

[Digit]

24. K&R

[DancingBear]

26. Rather than discuss these items in depth, I ask only one thing of you

Google "oil bourse."

Especially telling will be current/future and Iran/Russia, but I will leave that to you to discover.

You will find many answers there.

[suziedemocrat]

74. Bourse is French for Exchange and Iran wants to start selling Oil in Euros

Not dollars. Currently Oil is only traded in 2 commodities markets - one in London - the other in New York. Both trade oil in dollars. Iran supposedly wants to open their own oil exchange and sell oil in Euros. This could have a negative impact on the dollar because supposedly countries now have to have dollars on hand to buy oil. If they can buy oil at the Iran exchange with Euros, they may stop holding dollars and the dollar would fall.


Please tell me if my summary is incorrect, but I wanted to save people the time of looking this up if they only want the Readers Digest version.

[cliss]

28. I share your concerns.

I was alarmed, too, when I read that the Fed was going to stop printing the M3 supply of money. Randi Rhodes was talking about how the telecom companies would be exempt from reporting requirements. I though it was because of the eavesdropping scandal, and the lost revenue that they would be dealing with.

I think our economy is on life support. Amazingly, though, it's still showing signs of life, even though more and more Americans are starting to get hit by this Flat-lining economy.

But why take my word for it?

Why not go to the big names in Finance, like Warren Buffet, Steven Roach of Morgan Stanley, the ones who know what they are talking about. Ignore the Fed, and completely ignore people like John "Snowjob" Snow.

I've read some of them, and they are alarmed too.

[sweetheart]

29. Dollar corrections

As the dollar slides to parity with the deficit, a 30% correction, the ability of
the US empire to print and buy its way out of trouble will end. Combined with high
energy costs as the developing economies start using petrol at US levels per capita,
will drive the fossil-fuels based absurdity of Anglo-Petro-economics to bankruptcy.

Transport costs will increase and increase, until they squeeze business margins and
you'll see the destabilization enter the economy that way. This will cut earnings
expectations and then stock market devaluation will weaken the credit worthyness of
those corporations to borrow money cheaply, and the spiralling knock on effect will
produce indeed, a lotta junk credit, but this fallout is not a terminal eschatological
event, but part of an evolutionary process in capitalism where resources find their
best marginal contribution in a world economy... and a bet on the US imperium is not
good spending common sense. As capital flight sets in towards other economic poles,
the ponzi scheme of circular US borrrowing will eat its own tail.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/sweetheart/65

So what will change about your life with gas at 10 dollars per gallon? Collapse
is so dramatic a word, pain and poverty of paying the actual cost of the lifestyle
at the pump will correct an errant mammon.

[xxqqqzme]

30. This also expands to

cover any federal monies going 2 the big defense contractors does not need 2 be included in any financial report - not how much or how it is being used. They can be training a black ops battalion 2 take out Chavez; round up/murder suspected 'terrorists' here, it all goes unreported under the guise of national security. And death-squad john is overseeing ALL of it! I thought Kissinger was the epitome of evil...death-squad john has him beat. henry never had this kind of power; nixon would never have given it up.

[Marr]

31. I think that decision to allow corporations to lie was more about covering

up the NSA spying than anything else. The Bush Administration had a little warning that the article was coming out, and quickly moved to cover it up.

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

32. Scary and sadly believable. nt.

[FogerRox]

33. Defend America: Impeach BUSH, Indict Cheney

N O W !

[rucky]

36. the order - in and of itself - should cause panic in the markets

why would anybody invest if they don't have the facts?

[ProfessorGAC]

39. First Premise Is Wrong Finnfan

The gov't still reports the money printed. So, there is no conspriacy. Take off you tin foil, my friend.

The Professor

[lonestarnot]

42. I thought this was M3. Still need to do that reading.

[ProfessorGAC]

45. Nope

M1 is the cash that is in actual circulation. It is all outstanding currency, all demand and checking deposits, and outstanding traveler's checks and prepaid cards.

M2 is the M1 plus "near cash". Those are things that can be quickly liquidated into actual cash. It includes things like money market accounts, mutual fund MMA's, personally held CD's of denominations of under $100k and other time deposits.

The M3 was the M2 plus large bond or certificates of deposit with commercial banks and thrifts, plus large denomination, non-callable government securities. Since the Treasiry department still reports all bonds outstanding and new bonds sold, the dropping of M3 is apropos of nothing, since the activities are all still accounted.

So, M1 is the principal measure of the amount of cash that actually has been printed.

Hence, even though Finnfan is my pal, he's starting from a completely flawed premise. I figured he'd want to know.
The Professor

[lonestarnot]

47. Thanks Professor.

[Roland99]

77. M3 represents the Repurchase Agreements (buying of debt by the Fed)

And if you think they're not trying to hide the massive issuing of debt in order to keep the military-industrial beast fed and keep the Medicare/Social Security payments flowing, you're ignoring the very foundation of what this administration's behavior has been since it took office.

[ProfessorGAC]

81. Wrong

Nothing is hidden. If you're too lazy to find it, that's on you.
The Professor

[lonestarnot]

41. We are fucked.

[Loge23]

44. Hayden's appointment - another brick in the wall

The appointment of a military man to head the traditionally civilian CIA is another strong indication of the neo-con coup in the making.
My biggest fear about this increasingly possible scenario is that the admin will stage another "terrorist" attack prior to the election. This will lead to a suspension of the election "until further notice".
Of course, the sheeple will agree.

[Jesus W Vader]

48. We'll never hear the word recession....

again. Everyhting regarding the economy is right out of 1984. They don't count fuel and food in inflation figures. How can we trust a damn thing they say? They will always say it is good. WE have been in a slow motion depression since 2000. The Dow is finally seeming to crash after a couple years of bitshit insane plunge protection. Still, the talking heads say everything is fine. I know people who have been outsourced multiple times. THese are people with Master's Degrees who can only find part-time or just a step above burger flipping work. They can't afford to go back to school or get that wonderful retraining or betterment that Oxyman says will make it all better. We are fucked. There could be breadlines tomorrow and the talking heads will still say it's great. Save yourself howvere you must. I am stocking supplies, and just may find an alternative communal-type living arrangment. This will be the only way to not be starving to death five years from now the way things are going. Oh, but watch for the fascists to make unconventional living arrangements illegal(already in many localities). That's I'll bet what the detention camps are for-when a sufficient number of people can simply no longer toe the line by charging the shit out of credit cards and hallucinated batshit insane inflated home equity.

[ProfessorGAC]

49. Yes You Will

Most of the economists from the analytic school (to which i ascribe and am an active participant) use the term all the time.

While it's not a recession in the conventionalist view (2 successive quarters of negative growth), a properly indexed analysis of the nature of the "growth" will show that it consists almost completely of inflated energy prices pushing up nominal GDP, increasing gov't spending doing the same, and trade deficits based upon cheap goods that keep inflation under some reasonable control. But, when all these things are indexed, and these years are compared to other years of similar trade and inflationary states, the economy is woefully underperforming in real terms.

So, guys like me have been using the term "recessionary behavior" for almost 5 years. Of course, you would have to be reading arcane academic and econometric journals to hear it. But, eventually even the conventionalists will have to acknowledge we've been right the whole time.
The Professor

[Jesus W Vader]

50. You make a good point about our bizarro world

Common fucking sense and simple goddamn math(way undercounted inflation=way overcounted real GDP growth) is now confined to the arcane journals you refer to. Ooh, I forgot about health insurance rates being jacked up 40-50% every goddamn year even if you don't use it. I bet that isn't counted either in the vaingloriously low inflation figures.

[ProfessorGAC]

51. Nope, It's Not

You know why it's not counted? The conventionalists say "It's too hard to keep up with things this volatile!" No i'm not kidding.

Because it's too hard to do, they report the economy as if it's some two dimensional construct rather than a sociopolitical environment in which people actually have to live. Talk about intellectually lazy, huh?
The Professor

[Jesus W Vader]

52. Volatile...heard of that, too

As far as those people being intellectually lazy and forgetting that the economy is an actual system that actual people have to actually live in...well, I guess getting a six-figure salary to just talk shit on teevee will do that to a person. You rock professor, you demonstrate that through all my supposed paranoia I still don't quite grasp how insane these people are.

[ProfessorGAC]

53. LOL! Thanks

Don't kid yourself. Your paranoia has nothing to do with it. Your looking for them to be evil or insane. The problem is they just beat the system. They're dumber than dirt, but got a college to give them an advanced degree, and now they're "experts". Unfortunately, they're experts at keeping their own cushy job and nothing else.

What you're not grasping is that these people are DUMB! They just don't get it. Hence, they don't know they're being intellectually lazy. They just know that what they say matches up with some other dimwit said in Austria 90 years ago.
The Professor

[Odin2005]

54. Mainsteam economics has become a bunch of group-think circle-jerking.

The Neo-Liberals have turned it into the Church of Free Market Fundimentalism.

[ProfessorGAC]

55. It Started Long Before Neoliberalism

It's been going on since well before i was in grad school for economics. I'd guess it started in the 1920's, which is one reason why the Depression was so poorly anticipated.

I understand your sentiment, but i think you're underestimating how long this field has been the domain of the dumbasses.
The Professor

[suziedemocrat]

75. I want to read your journal - REALLY!!!

You're maybe the DUer I'm most interested in hearing from. I haven't noticed your posts before this thread though.

Please, please tell me - is there a housing bubble? Even if it's not nation-wide, if it affects even a handful of cities - I'm scared.

[silvershadow]

80. I disagree, they will let us know when the "recession" hits...

by the time they call it recession it will probably be "depression" or "complete economic meltdown" in reality.

[Danascot]

57. Dow is down 118 points as of 1 pm today n/t

[Ganja Ninja]

58. I don't know how close we are to collapse but I know it's coming.

These guys have been lying about everything since they took office. Why shouldn't they lie about the economy too?

A major factor in keeping an economy stable is the confidence factor. When people start to realize this administration has been fudging the numbers it could trigger a panic. They won't wait for the facts to come out to find out how bad things are. We could see a big run on banks and the stock market. The value of the dollar would tank big time and it will be the 1930's all over again.

[coalition_unwilling]

65. Much as I think there could be some serious, even severe,

short-term corrections, I don't believe "it will be the 1930's all over again." Remember that, at its peak during the Great Depression, adult unemployment in the U.S. was 25%! There are too many demand-side stimuli available to policy makers for us to ever reach that point again.

What is far more likely, imho, is a gradual decline in the average American's standard of living, especially as declines in the dollar continue and perhaps acclerate.

[genieroze]

60. The chits gonna hit the fan, and we will all be covered in it. * and his

cronies will walk away with pockets full of cash.

[paparush]

64. I don't know about the details described here, but I firmly believe

that this Admin** will viciously lie to the nation and the world to further their goals...which are NOT the improvement of quality of life for every man woman and child in America.

[ProfessorGAC]

66. Nobody Is Disputing That

But, there is a long leap between liars, lying about the economy, and the economy collapsing because of those lies.

You are 100% correct, but that isn't relevant to the health of our macroeconomy.
The Professor

[deaniac21]

67. The economic and goverment knowledge in this thread is

nothing short of astounding! I am now SCARED TO DEATH!

[eviltwin2525]

68. solution: eliminate encumbency....entirely....at all levels

Encumbency is the holy grail of power politics. Getting "your guy" a senior committee seat in charge of "your issue" is the be-all and end-all for lobbyists. Where power goes, money flows, and vice-versa. Which suggests the direct (and very difficult) solution: eliminate encumbency. But not with stupid halfway "term limits" implemented piece-meal.
PROPOSED FEDERAL CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT: 1) No person shall be elected to or serve any portion of consecutive terms in any elected office of the federal, state or local goverments. 2) No limit shall be placed on the number of non-consecutive terms which may be served. 3) No sibling, spouse, child or parent of an office-holder may succeed that office-holder. 4) The sole exception shall be a spouse may be appointed to fill a vacancy other than for President or Vice President created by the death of the office-holder, such appointment to run only until a special election shall be held, for which election the spouse shall not be eligible. 4) In offices for which there is a line of succession established by law, the current office-holder or relatives thereof as established in Section (3), shall not be eligible to hold a position in the line of succession in the succeeding term. 5) This amendment shall supercede all other laws and Constitutional provisions relating to term limits, and shall take full effect Nov. 1, 2008.