Fear of Military Disobedience may Block Iran Attack Unless "Incident"

[Leopolds Ghost]

I can't vouch for this guy or his sources, but I saw this on Daily Kos.

US Troops Prepared To Attack Iran
(Ordered to Remain At Phase 2 Readiness against an unspecified invasion target)

Bush Said To Be Seeking “Persian Gulf Incident”
By William Thomas
05/11/06

http://www.willthomas.net/Convergence/Weekly/US_Attack_Iran.htm

In January 2006, a major military base located in the western United States received voice instructions from National Command Authority (NCA) to get their logistics train underway and train up their troops for desert warfare.

“Which desert?” the commander wanted to know.

“You don’t need to know,” he was told by the NCA.

With their mission unstated, infantry staff officers presumed that this redeployment of more than 10,000 combat-tested troops, as well as supporting armor, artillery and air reconnaissance would soon be heading back into Iraq—with enough force, as my source put it, to “finally go in and do it right.”

In February 2006, the 2nd phase of war preparations began as US personnel in Defense Data Management began tapping keypads and arranging “rides” for a still unspecified destination. Orders went out to various air, land and sealift commands to coordinate logistical support for an upcoming combat deployment to the most likely desert environment—the Persian Gulf.

By April 2006 it was clear to combat veterans preparing once again for war that they would not be helping out their buddies in Iraq. When an additional division of 10,000 to 15,000 seasoned troops specializing in rugged terrain was also ordered to prepare for redeployment in the Persian Gulf Theater, enough red flags went up to stop the game.

[Leopolds Ghost]

1. More from the article...

Iraq is mostly flat.

Iran is mostly mountainous.

WE DON’T THINK SO
As Pulitzer-winning journalist Seymour Hersh has confirmed, the generals performed their sworn duty by rendering their professional opinion to the National Command Authority, to wit: “You’re out of your frickin’ minds.”

US commanders pointed out that their tanks were not going to be taking any scenic drives through Persian peaks exceeding 7,000 feet, and occasionally topping out over 10,000. The missing oxygen required to sustain life would also not be enough to sustain heavy-lift helos attempting to chopper in all those bullets and beans well above their rated service ceilings.

“Bad idea,” they said. The Soviet Red Army had conclusively and catastrophically demonstrated what happens when troops attempting to assault unfamiliar mountain defiles without armor and adequate air support confront homeland defenders armed with anti-air and anti-vehicle rockets fighting from good cover. Especially when said shooters are not afraid to die.

“We can’t do this,” the generals told Rumsfeld and his amateur warmakers. “Your plan will not work. Most of our people will get killed.”

[kineneb]

10. geography

Yes, Iran is mountainous. And the central plateau is around 4500' elevation. Hot during the day, cool to cold at night, like most high desert. Really windy sometimes. And it even snows occasionally in the winter. Western Iran has the Zagros Mountains, and northern Iran has the Elborz Mountains and Mt. Damavad (which has a ski area!).

Attacking Iran would be the height of folly- how do I know...well, I lived there a year, and have grown up in a half Persian family. I probably understand the mindset better than most of the "intellegence" community, just from hanging out with my relatives.

[Selatius]

2. We carpet-bombed Basra with B-52s?

This ruinous yet highly lucrative attack would be immediately followed by B-52s, “carpet bombing” Iranian cities and countryside—just like they’d done to Vietnam, Cambodia and Basra. Deeply buried nuclear research facilities would be used to “field test” experimental nuclear “bunker-busters”.

I heard we used napalm and white phosphorus in Fallujah, but I didn't hear of this until now.

[Dr.Phool]

4. I know we carpet bombed Basra in the first Gulf War

I'm not sure about the latest invasion.

[Canuckistanian]

3. Who IS this guy?

That's a pretty stark picture of armageddon he paints there.

Is this true? Were they really planning the destruction of a whole country?

Any military experts out there seeing the same things?

[hobbit709]

5. If we can't control Iraq

with 150,000, we certainly can't do anything in Iran with 10,000. Yeah, we can bomb the shit out them but then what? If we do that the surviving Iranians will come at us out of the rubble like the Jews in the Warsaw Ghetto went after the Nazis. When you have nothing left to lose, you've lost your fear already. "Your status in hell is determined by the size of the honor guard you take with you"-RAH

[Leopolds Ghost]

11. Per your username -- perhaps Bush has the ring

And thinks the Zagros are the Mountains of Mordor.

And has decided to bring Ahmadinejad back to the US as a prisoner...

No, wait, he already did that with Karl Rove.

[Ksec]

6. These chickenhawks running this country are absolutely insane.

Can you imagine anyone with the arrogance and audacity to start another war while they already have two going ? The military is being used by insane people. Maybe its time the military wised up and realized that the civilian leaders have become incapable of making competent decisions. Lets hope someone steps up , someone who understands how these people are destroying this countries reputations and abilities to protect us from any serious threat. These wars by choice are being run by people who do not have americas interests in mind.

[pinto]

7. I'd take William Thomas with a big grain of salt.

If at all. Just my 2 cents.

[Dr.Phool]

8. I'd be inclined to agree with you, but......

Their track record has been, since before the 2000 election to put out crazy ideas, that are so insane, that nobody actually believes they would attempt it. But then they do.

Remember when the chimp said, he's no longer go to the American Bar Assn. to vet judicial appointments? He said he'd use the wacko Federalist Society instead? Nobody believed he was serious. Look at his appointments now.

Remember when he said we'd exhaust all diplomatic routes before we had war in the middle east, when he was asking for a carte blanche bill to be passed, authorizing him to invade anyone he sees fit? Nah, that'll never happen.

We don't torture. Nah.

We dont spy on Americans. Nah.

We're not trying to invade Iran. Nah. Scott Ritter says differently.

We're not batshit fundy crazy. Nah.


It's like the story about the woman who nursed the sick rattlesnake back to health and was surprised when it bit her. That's what rattlesnakes do.

And it's also what Neocon fundamentalist end-timer rattlesnakes do.

Be scared. Be very scared.

[Canuckistanian]

18. Good analogy about the rattlesnakes

Neocons have been the same since Nixon. Only now, they've been let off their chains.

They're not the kind to let a few setbacks stop them. Not when they're so close to proving.... what are they trying to prove again?

[madrchsod]

9. if he thinks he could go to war in iran

he`s even more delusional than anyone realizes. if he did this country would come to a complete stop because of the loss of oil coming out of the arabian sea.

[nolabels]

13. The dude is clinically nut-so by definition already

And one more delusional step always leads to another

Don't be sad, just be happy, after all when was the last time you were really able to get a heads up on somebody that was really trying to screw you in bad way :shrug:

[Leopolds Ghost]

12. this guy Claims that Bush ALREADY requested Stage 3 and was told NO

Stage 3 Readiness meaning Deployment to Iran.

Generals said We will Not Obey, or possibly resign, or muttered that it would be an illegal order.

If so, we will never hear about it.

(It did not come out until recently that during the Watergate hearings Nixon was essentially not in control of the military for fear he would do something stupid. Thank god/It's amazing the generals didn't side with Nixon then...)

However, the article goes on to say that if there was an "international incident" in the persian gulf, then absolutely no loyal soldier would disobey an order to counter-attack.

This is what the "source" in the article claims to be afraid of.

If anything in this article is true, then it suggests that the only reason Bush may be hoping for a 2nd Pearl Harbor is not to influence public opinion (why bother?) but to ensure full support of his own generals.

He may not have the POWER to declare war on Iran at the present time,
but he has moved the US into stand-by readiness to be ready to deploy
within 48 hours of any incident.

That may be the reason for those "6/7/06" rumors.

If so, then the generals are the only thing keeping us out of Iran, god bless 'em.

For those of you who argue that this journalist is probably a crackpot:
Let's hope we never find out what really happened because bad things would probably come of it, to us or dissenting officers, if this is true.

[shadowknows69]

15. The post I work near

has been on 48 hour deploy orders for a while. Most of them can't go past 50 miles from the base

[Leopolds Ghost]

16. That piece of data is suggestive

that the source is good and the article is accurate.

Methinks that if the military higher-ups were NOT seriously considering direct refusal and/or resignation, we would never have HEARD half the stuff we are hearing.

Loose lips sink ships, remember? Unless it's the prez that's gunning for em.

You never saw this level of outspokenness under Clinton, although if he did anything this stupid you'd bet you would, and people would be proud of generals for doing it.

But we'll never know the truth of what DIDN'T happen.

[Selatius]

19. Your summation is rather sobering if not frightening

If it's true that the Neocons failed to initiate Phase III directly, then it points to the possibility of another "Tonkin Gulf incident" prepared by a small but loyal element in the intelligence community.

[Leopolds Ghost]

14. for anyone worried about Iraq or Afghanistan before we went in-- a movie

Due to what happened to the British in those places (although it could be argued we had no choice but to go into Afghanistan)...

Should keep in mind that Iran has never been successfully invaded (much less conquered) since Alexander the Great.

This puts it in very select company above Afghanistan (successfully invaded three times, but not yet successfully occupied) Ethiopia (once) Greece and China (numerous times, but always assimilated the occupiers).

Watch the silent movie "Grass" for more information about
(a) rural Iranian tribesmen and (b) the Zagros mountains.

[Leopolds Ghost]

17. Correction, Genghis Khan

At the request of the Crusader States, after the Kwarzm Shah beheaded
three of his ambassadors (to quote Pee Wee Herman "BIG... MithTAKE!!")

the Mongols (several of Genghis Khan's wives were Nestorian Christian) invaded Persia (which at that time included Baghdad, the capital of Arab Civilization) and totally levelled the old city of Baghdad, setting back Arab civilization 500 years.

This also allowed the Crusader States to survive another couple hundred years (barely) because it reduced the Moslem world east of Antioch to two states: Syria and Turkey (which occupied what is now Kurdestan).

Which was probably not such a good thing since the Crusaders had already established themselves as murderers and brigands opposed all religions in the area, including the Greek Orthodox in the Byzantine Empire, which the Crusaders sacked.

(see "Kingdom of Heaven" for a primer on how the Crusaders got the reputation they presently enjoy in the Middle East)

Thanks to the Crusaders, Constantinople fell shortly thereafter (for the first time ever) to the Turks, who promptly got the hell out of dodge (read: Kurdistan) and moved their capital to COnstantinople/Istanbul, which should tell you something ELSE about Iraq.

From then on, the Turks dominated the Middle East.

The last of the Roman Emperors, who died on the battlements of Constantinople, sent his daughter north to marry Ivan the Terrible, who took the title "Tsar" meaning "Caesar" which continued the line of Justinian until 1917.

Unlike the Arabs, Persia regained independence after a period of Mongol and Turkish rulers operating essentially a greater Persian kingdom based in Central Asia.

Still, "Grass" is a good movie

(not about drugs, its a documentary about Iran in the 1920s)