http://mondediplo.com/2006/05/02irakIraq is simultaneously descending into both a civil war and a war of resistance against foreign occupation. The United States has been hoping to exploit the divide between Iraqi patriots and global jihadists, but the Sunni opposition is growing more structured and unified as it adapts to changing conditions, and may transcend those divisions.
By Mathieu Guidère and Peter Harling
Descriptions of Iraq’s armed opposition often divide it into a set of wholly independent categories which apparently do not have much in common. The categories include the patriotic former army officers, the foreign terrorists, the Sunni Arabs determined to regain power, the Muslims opposed to any kind of foreign occupation, the tribal factions pursuing their own specific vendettas, the die-hard Ba’athists - and the “pissed-off” Iraqis (in coalition soldier jargon, POIs) who are simply sick of the foreign forces occupying their country.
While a few key figures have emerged, such as the Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the former Saddam acolyte Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, they do not appear as uncontested leaders. The armed opposition has not set up any kind of civilian political representation, as the Northern Irish republicans did with Sinn Fein, for example. Nor have they published a specific political programme. So the dominant image remains that of a diffuse and largely anonymous multitude. But though that perception may have been accurate in 2003, the opposition has come a long way since then.
Broadly speaking, the change can be seen as a form of stabilisation. At first the opposition was multi-confessional and represented a cross-section of Iraqi society as a whole. But it has grown more focused as the political landscape has polarised, and it is now almost exclusively Sunni Arab. A number of large, easily recognisable groups have emerged, further simplifying the situation. The most important of these are the Islamic army, Tanzim al- Qaida fi balad al-rafidein (the organisation of al-Qaida in the land of the two rivers); the Army of the Partisans of the Tradition of the Prophet; and the Army of Muhammad. There are others (1). Increasingly, each of these groups dominates certain specific, clearly defined geographical areas. There are still pockets of confusion as to who has the upper hand where (one example is in the Diyala governorate near Baghdad) but these are now exceptions.
One area where the opposition is particularly settled is the al-Anbar governorate in northwestern Iraq. Here Iraqi aid workers negotiate safe passages with opposition leaders via what is almost an institutional process. A formal procedure is in place for lorry drivers to pay an insurance fee that allows them to cross the governorate, as long as they are not supplying the enemy.
This is a really good article. Its a little long but it is worth reading the whole thing.
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